Third Base Top 20: Limited To Top 20

I talked about this last week, if you want a last minute ranks page with all the names Gray has one right here.  Quite helpful.

My method here is basically to just pick 20 guys, and rank them according to how I think they’ll perform.  This can be narrative based, statistically based, or sometimes just me thinking a guy is better or worse than other people do.  You are more than welcome to disagree;  that’s the best thing about opinions!  Everyone has one even if they’re wrong.

Without much further ado, here’s my 3B ranks for 2024, organized in tiers for some reason.  Oh, yeah. That’s because you shouldn’t argue with someone if Rafael Devers is better than Austin Riley.  Same tier, dig?

Tier 1:  Spicy Meatballs with Mozzarella Cheese

1. Rafael Devers: Third base has a new king!  Jose Ramirez ends his lengthy reign on top of these ranks of one year.  But Kelder, what about the steals, the steals, THE STEALS?  I don’t like to project guys who are 31 years old for big numbers in that area, and I will go here with Devers and his juicy, consistent power.  One of these years we get the MVP with this guy.

2. Austin Riley:  I’m a sucker for good lineups, which means maybe soon I move Riley to the top spot if the Red Sox ecosystem doesn’t allow for Devers to produce as much.  Darn you apex predators.  Riley is solid for .280-30-100 and a bunch of runs hitting in the middle of the order.  He’s a legit pick after the top 5 guys are drafted.

3.  Jose Ramirez:  I’ve never owned this guy, honestly, and I don’t know why.  I doubt I’m buying in at age 31 either.  Even in a bad lineup, though, he’s a stable 20-20 guy who’ll hit .280 with 80 runs and ribbies.  I won’t quibble with you if you have him number one.  He’s my number 3, so I like him, but usually, I’m going with a 4 category bopper in this area.  Riley and Devers are those boppers.

Tier 3:  If the Price is Right

No, I didn’t skip the second tier.  I’m being creative.  There’s a big gap between these top guys, who’ll go top 20, and the rest, who are like top 60.

4.  Alex Bregman:  Boring but productive.  He’s what I call a cut and paste;  you can cut and paste his last three seasons and they all look about the same.  Bumped to fourth because of good run production (over 90 runs and RBI last year).  He’s one of those guys who you take if you have a really risky guy earlier to balance out your universe and risk profile.

5.  Royce Lewis:  Full disclosure, I won’t draft Lewis this year at all.  2 ACL injuries, then an oblique last season followed by a hammy.  Is that the guy you want to count on as a top bat?  You really think he’s going to be healthy, you are either his family member or your name rhymes with Boyce Fluis.  I expect him to go top 50 for most leagues where people remember his outburst in the playoffs.  Go ahead, punk.  Make my day and draft him so I can wait on third base for a long time.

6.  Josh Jung:  What am I missing here?  Young guy, good prospect pedigree, great spot in a championship caliber lineup.  I guess health is a possible issue, and the OBP might lead to some regression, but I’m on the Jung train.  Why, you ask?  Well, his regression toward the end of the season was due to a swollen thumb.  Have you ever tried to do anything with a busted thumb?  Like, even plunging a toilet is hard with that kind of malady.  So, not worried about that.  I think he’ll steadily improve and return nice value.  I have to do that, I recently took him as my 8th pick in TGFBI, my first time in a content creator league.  See, I put my money where my mouth is here!

7.  Manny Machado:  He could drop fast here.  When I started this process I knew he had a surgery to fix up an elbow that had been bothering him for two years.  That’s a good thing.  Then I read that he might just be DH for a while.  That’s kinda a good thing but also kinda a bad thing.  We’ll see how he looks early on.

Tier 4:  My “No Thank You” tier

8.  Elly De La Cruz:  I’ve ranked him on purpose to make sure I don’t draft him.  It’s not the player;  he’s as electrifying as they come.  It’s the cost.  I was wrong on this last year with Bobby Witt; I still like my process over the result, and Elly is NOT Bobby Witt.  If you draft Elly in the second round, you can’t miss. If you want to, I won’t judge you and call you out on social media very much. The swing and miss was real but could be fixed.  If it is, we have a perennial first rounder on our hands.  If not, he could actually be sent to the minors.  I’m just going to see how this season goes, but let someone else get him.

9.  Gunnar Henderson:  Another guy I’m ranking to miss out on.  I like the player and he’s an exciting guy, a foundational piece for a real life team.  The Orioles, however, are absolutely loaded.  If he struggles, like against lefties with a .618 OPS last year, and the Orioles fixin’ to contend, he might get a seat and not get the volume.  Streaming guys isn’t really fun for hitters in the range you would have to draft him.  I like the guy in dynasty especially, but the risk to me takes him out of consideration where he’s being drafted.

10.  Nolan Arenado:  Tell me which is the outlier batting average:  .253, .255, .293., .266.  Even my middle school students could see this, and they rarely pay attention.  His HRs have gone from 34 to 30 to 26.  He’s going to be 33.  I know this doesn’t really apply to fantasy, but the Gold Glove award went elsewhere too which shows the athleticism fading.  To me, this is a clear picture of decline.  I’m done baby, done.

11:  Max Muncy:  He’s supposed to be in better shape, but so is the Dodgers’ roster, and he might lose some at bats vs. lefties this year.  Good in a punt average build, and really good in an OBP league.  Probably he’s declining, much like my knee health.  If they both keep declining, I’ll have plenty of time to write after the knee replacement!

Tier 5:  Black Jelly Beans

Um, it is Easter.  I like the candy a lot.  I do not like black jelly beans though.  Third base is weak.

12:  Ke’Bryan Hayes:  Every once in a while, a guy comes in the league that you just watch and see the talent there and figure he will eventually put it together.  Hayes showed signs of this in the second half hitting near .400.  Okay, that was a typo that I accidentally left in here while I went and tried to fix my stopped-up drain in the kitchen sink.  Hopefully, it will be free-flowing, and hopefully, Hayes’ numbers are free-flowing as well.  By the way, the second half was .299 with 10 HR.  He’s probably too high, but like I said and then forgot I said earlier because of plumbing issues I see the talent there and figure he will eventually put it together.

13.  Jake Burger:  It’s all about the dingers here. Well, that and a .279 average with 15 HR in the second half.  If you just look at his time with Miami the average rises to .303!  Your batting average risk is well done, but the HR contributions are for sure rare.  Risk tolerance guy if you can stomach it.  If you do a weird punt batting average build, this is the perfect guy to get.

14:  Spencer Steer:  I don’t think he’s really as good as the experts all do (Wait, Kelder, someone’s reading this.  You’re the expert, dummy!)  You do not want to be the worst defender in baseball, or even close.  Steer was darn close last year to that. His hope is to take a corner outfield position and run with it, and that’s fine.  My take is that last year was his ceiling, and something like post prime Trey Mancini (.250 with around 15 HR) will be his norm.

Update:  A rosterpocalypse has hit the Reds!!!!!!!!  Steer’s playing time should be secure for this year.  A repeat is now probable.  Look, I wrote this early, okay, now I’m having to edit due to new info.  Stupid spring training updates.

Tier 6:  You Gotta Fill the Position, Right?

15:  Ha-Seong Kim:  I’m skeptical of, in order

Will his steals stay at this pace when he’s playing SS full time, a more challenging position?

Will the Padres regress and cost him counting stats?  84 runs is good, but any less is not as good.  Crack analysis, here, and not the kind when you look at a plumber.

16.  Christopher Morel:  This is a really hard one to figure out.  His strikeout rate is terrible.  His swing and miss profile is terrible.  He might not be able to play defense at a major league level.  But the power is good, and he’s still young and developing at the MLB level.  Another thing that is good is his top 10 in the league exit velocity.  A final good thing is that the new manager in Chicago says he’s got to play every day.  There are worse guys you can go after, and he will qualify at second and the outfield also.  I’m putting him down for around 450 AB, which will get about 25 HR in your stats.  If he’s going to be a real player, he needs to have that average around league average, which he did, but really monitor his playing time.

17.  Alec Bohm:  Okay, fine, he’s a good average play with minimal power and around 80 R and RBI.  He’s not a bad option if you wait on the corners, and qualifies for first base too.

18.  Isaac Paredes:  I don’t believe in him, and with the amount of infielders the Rays have collected I’m expecting his playing time to decrease.

19-20:  Eugenio Suarez and Wilmer Flores:  No, I can’t muster any enthusiasm to write on these guys.  So I will not.

TBD:  Matt Chapman:  I don’t really like players going to San Francisco who are over 30 and coming off multiple down years.  You can do better.

Help is On the Way:

There’s a good number of youngsters who I for various reasons didn’t include in here, primarily being lack of data and lack of motivation to learn more about them.  All of these guys are real players with real potential and I think there’s a good chance that third base is much deeper next year than it appears to be this year.

Brett Baty:  Looks to take the Mets spot and run

Junior Caminero:  Rays, man, Rays.  They’ll jerk him around and kill his value this year.  More of a long term guy to me

Colt Keith:  Tigers extended him, so they’re clearly going to give him time.  Worth a late pick to check out where it goes

Jordan Westburg:  Gotta see how the Orioles shake out their crowded infield, and prospects are lurking in AAA.

Michael Busch:  3B eligible but playing first, will he get time against lefties?

Coby Mayo:  When does he come up?

Noelvi Marte:  SO hard to rank now but maybe still worth a stash if you can to wait and see.

As you can see, there’s a good number of guys with real chances to get 7 new names in the top 20.  I’m not nearly smart or motivated enough to check them all out, so just blurbing.

 

I’ll update these again sometime in June.  Thanks for reading!