Howdy folx! Did I just make it sound like JKJ was writing this article? Maybe he hijacked my iMac in the Razzball HQ and is posting this from his Netscape browser. Grey, I can’t believe we’re still using Netscape, can’t we at least upgrade to Internet Exploder? Or is that a downgrade? I can’t tell anymore. But, let me raid the Pop Tart pantry in Grey’s basement Razzball HQ and get you all caught up on some hitters that I’m targeting in the second half of the 2021 Fantasy Baseball Season. I capitalize that because I’m trying to be more German in preparation for my upcoming move to the Black Forest in search of ham delicacies.
Introducing The Crushonator
At Razzball, we have all sorts of tools to help you with your fantasy baseball season. You’re probably familiar with the Hittertron and the Streamonator. There are also other tools like the Relievonator, the Teamonator, and the Nachoizer (which makes all foods into sumptuous nachos). But the coolest part about Rudy’s tools (and you know I couldn’t get through a post without talking about Rudy’s tools) is that he lets you download all of them in CSV (that’s computer talk for Cranky Sloppy Vague, the dating app for 40-year olds) and then you can home brew the materials to your heart’s content.
As Rudy says in his tools overview, he believes his approach should just be one of the approaches fantasy managers use in preparing for the year. Why is that? Because baseball hitters are massively variant and immensely subject to luck. Imagine the Nationals are playing the Astros. Juan Soto hits a 400-foot blast at 110MPH, but alas it’s in center field at Minute Maid Park and he’s 4 feet short of a homer. What’s more, there was a deep defensive shift on him, and Michael Brantley makes a nice catch at the wall. Soto finishes the game 0-for-4 and 0 strikeouts. He hit the ball every time and he hit it hard, yet no hits. Meanwhile, Alcides Escobar gets a bunt single, steals second on an inattentive pitcher, gets hit by a pitch, walks with the bases loaded, and scores twice on various smart base running choices. He finishes the game with a .500 batting average, two runs, an RBI, and an SB. And what’s more, is that the game was on a Sunday. Some fantasy baseball manager picked up Escobar off the waiver wire and wins their matchup thanks to the unlikely statistics. Meanwhile, the manager who rostered Soto all year stares at his 0-for-4 performance and wonders why they drafted him third overall. “Soto sucks!” the second manager shouts, while the Escobar manager nods as if they knew that Escobar was due for a big day.
Welcome, my friends, to variance.
Predicting hitter performance is incredibly difficult. On a daily basis, Vegas and baseball data teams and fantasy quants can’t predict performance reliably beyond some of the top batters. The Hittertron is really good at picking out the top bats. Is there a way that fantasy managers can use the data in the Hittertron (or its DFS version in DFS Bot) to increase their predictive hit rate on lesser hitters?
That’s where my home brewed Crushonator comes into play.
I’m not ready to unveil the Crushonator publicly for two reasons: 1) I use a ton of proprietary data from other sites that can’t be distributed on Razzball; and 2) I know I can do better. I’m always learning! But let’s get the sticky ball moving and perhaps get some readers thinking about how they can home brew their own materials based upon Rudy’s tools. Then, I’ll give you some targets to acquire for the second half and some fade targets as well.
Home Brewed Tools
In total, I have home brewed the following tools using two sheets — DFS Bot Hitters and the Streamonator — from Rudy’s tools:
- The Crushonator: a tool that looks at the likelihood for any player to hit a homerun on a given day/week.
- The Hobbitotron: a tool that looks at underdog players to hit productively on a given day/week.
- The Whiffonator: a tool that looks at all pitchers, compares to the strength of the opposing lineup, and describes which pitchers are likely to perform well on a given day.
- The Trashomatic: two separate tools that describe which batters and pitchers — of all values — are expected to perform poorly (i.e., “sit them”)
- The Bonkonator: a tool that looks at hitters who go against strong SPs on teams with bad bullpens.
Sure is fun to hang out with me, amirite? There are other tools that I combine with Rudy’s work — the BATX projections, Carlos Marcano’s Q Leaderboard, and my own pitcher rankings — and then mash them all together in a nasty looking Google Sheet that spits out my desired players on command. Haha! Now who owns who, Google?
Top Hitters for the Second Half of 2021
Propelled by Statcast metrics, traditional metrics, descriptive information, and predictive information, let’s take a look at some of the players who are expected to be the tops in power hitting throughout the second half of 2021. This will hopefully help those managers who are reeling from losing Ronald Acuña Jr. or Kyle Schwarber or famed power hitter James Loney.
- You knew this guy was going to be on the list. Tatis secures the top spot due to the amount of past data (which helps us predict the future) as well as his stunning Statcast data (where he ranks fifth highest overall in quality of contact per blast event. Don’t know what that means? It means he’s hitting the ball squarely often, and more often than not, he’s getting a ridiculous launch angle and exit velocity combo that correlates well to home runs. Tatis is a more “well-rounded” bat than some of the other options here because he’s capable of hitting more than dingers; in fact, he’s more likely to make solid contact on a line drive. You might worry about that, but it just means that he’s a more reliable bat that’s able to attack pitchers on multiple fronts, rather than just being a power bat. For all fantasy teams in all formats, Tatis looks like he’ll finish the season as the top hitter, and he’ll undoubtedly be the 1.01 next year on my board.
- I’m not going to cover every bat that tops my list (yes, Vladdy is #2), but Ohtani steps in at #3, and he’s still being under-recognized by most projection systems. Why? Ohtani formerly (that’s a big word for used to) had an awful split vs lefty pitching. This year, he’s got a wOBA of .420 (nice!) against lefties and a wOBA of .439 against righties. His home wOBA is a ridiculous .456 and he’s blasting the ball at a nearly 20% clip. He’s also a touch one-dimensional at the plate (waiting for Coolwhip to yell at me for saying that) because he’s primarily geared towards lifting the ball. That said, Ohtani will likely finish the year as the home run king. And yes, I do believe his IP will be limited going forward; he’s already past his MLB max innings, and given his history with arm injuries, I just can’t see any logic in the Angels pushing his pitching this year. That could mean even more AB for one of the premier crushers in the league.
- OK, I lured you in with the big names and now we’re going to skip a bunch of hitters to try and find some trade targets for you. Teoscar was a schmohawk coming into this year, and he missed some time on the IL. He’s still a batter who makes his living crushing lefties (.441 wOBA vs L, .323 wOBA vs R), but his Dynamic Hard Hit% (which attempts to be predictive of future success) is higher than Salvador Perez, Kyle Schwarber, J.D. Martinez…and teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Certainly a bunch of risk with Teoscar, but he could tee-off to some big numbers to finish the year.
- The Franimal! He’s healed and he’s back, and he’s crushing righties at home with a near-.430 wOBA in each category. He’s got a 54% hard hit rate so far (higher than Schwarber) and a 14% blast rate to go with his 18% barrel rate. All that means is the Franimal is crushing, and most people have little value on him due to his early year injuries. He may even be on the waiver wire in your league right now. So, smaller sample size than some other batters, but worth a look to finish the season.
- Dude survived an anaphylactic reaction about two weeks ago when some store slipped peanut products into his salad (true story). The Cardinals have been one of the least-inspiring offenses in baseball in the first half, but it seems like they’re just trying to get everybody healthy at the same time. O’Neill has a ridiculous split: a .391 wOBA against righties and a .285 wOBA against lefties. That’s like bizarro Joc Pederson. BizzarJoc! Joczzaro! But his blast rate (14%) is higher than Ronald Acuna’s (RIP sweet prince) and 3% higher than that man-mountain, Aaron Judge. In terms of quality of at-bat vs blast%, O’Neill actually ranks first on Carlos Marcano’s Q Rankings. This means we’re seeing O’Neill as an efficient player for the time he plays, and with the Cardinals heating up behind a healthier lineup, O’Neill is a good trade target to finish out the 2021 year.
Second Half Fades for 2021
I’m going to be quick here because you probably know these fades already, but dynasty managers might want to start unloading sooner than later:
Christian Yelich: Suddenly became a worm-killer. .288 wOBA vs L, .317 wOBA at home. Comparable to Josh Bell, who obviously wasn’t a first-round pick.
Anthony Rendon: .281 wOBA at home, .285 wOBA vs L. 4% barrel rate, 1% blast rate. The honeymoon is over.
Cody Bellinger: Yeah he’s been injured, and he’s also been hitting poorly. .216 wOBA away, .275 wOBA vs R. 5% barrel rate, 1% blast rate, Dynamic Hard Hit % lower than Ryan Zimmermann. Maybe the Dodgers should let him rest and recover.
Francisco Lindor: .300 wOBA across the board. 4% barrel rate, 3% blast rate, Dynamic Hard Hit % lower than Yandy Diaz. Yeah, Yandy Diaz. Woof.
OK friends, let’s see your second half hype and fades down in the comments. Be healthy and happy, and I’ll see you again soon.
