Rolling In The Deep: Deep(ish) League Risers

It’s happening folks, we actually have two 2025 MLB games in the books, and the real opening day will be here before we know it. As we all enjoy this last week of drafting and polishing up our already-drafted squads, it’s time to take one more look at which players have been rising in value of late, at least according to NFBC ADP over the last two weeks. As I referred to in my lede, we’ll keep things deep-adjacent by only including players who are still outside the top 200 in overall ADP, and who have had at least a 40-spot increase up the boards in drafts over that two week period. Using this objective data, we’ll start with our biggest overall gainer and work our way down from there, with a (subjective) comment or two for each player.

Clay Holmes (ADP #209, +122 spots over the last two weeks). In a recent slow draft, someone in my league grabbed Holmes and actually complained in the chat box about how high he “had” to take him. Clearly the Mets’ rotation injuries coupled with the announcement that Holmes would be their opening day starter – just like we all drew it up back in October! – has pushed his value rather significantly. I suppose this could still be a relative value and I could see making a speculative add in shallow leagues you’ve already drafted… but given the other hitters, potential closers, and even other starters likely available here, I think I’m out at this cost.

Alejandro Kirk (256, +97). I’ve drafted him once and am crossing my fingers that he’ll actually be a serviceable second catcher in a 15-team mixed league, yet I’m not sure what’s driving a large ADP bump. I guess a solid spring, and the fact that more time has passed to make us forget just how bad he was last year?

Max Scherzer (253, +85). I guess Scherzer’s further off my radar than I realized since I honestly had forgotten he’s now on the Blue Jays. Given that there’s been injury rumblings of late (thumb issue?), I really don’t know why he’s been getting drafted higher lately and I’m not ready to buy in without seeing him in-season.

Jonathan India (234, +80). Now here’s a guy where I not only understand his helium, I may have added to it myself the last few weeks. I think he’s been getting underdrafted in deeper leagues, and is a nice pick at this point if he just repeats close to what he did last year. If he can improve his production in Kansas City, and establish himself as their leadoff man while also possibly gaining outfield eligibility? Even better.

Jackson Holliday (204, +76). I guess folks were pretty guy shy after last year, and wanted to make sure that Holliday looked good this spring, and was clearly in line to be the Orioles opening day second baseman. So far that’s exactly what’s been happening, and if Holliday follows the pattern of many a past highly-touted prospect who struggles at first then turns it on in year two, he could prove to be a huge bargain.

J.J. Bleday (267, + 74). Feel like this one is the general tide that is the optimism about a handful of prominent A’s hitters like Rooker and Butler – combined with daydreams about how small their 2025 ballpark might play – lifting another boat. People might also just now be remembering that this particular boat could be a sneaky deep league power source after hitting 20 homers last year.

Christopher Morel (255, +65). I’m not really sure why he’s rising; I guess because he’s been getting reps in the outfield and looks like he’ll find a way into at least semi-regular at bats. I’ve already talked about this this off-season; I get that the power with a side of speed is enticing, but I just need to see a step forward with the hit tool before I’m buying back in at any price.

Brandon Lowe (201, +56). Another guy I’ve talked about recently; I’m in on Lowe at this spot as long as you remember that you’re drafting a second baseman who doesn’t run much at all, and who gets hurt. A lot.

Carlos Correa (225, +54). I keep thinking I should grab Correa in my deeper leagues, and then he seems so boring when we get to that part of the draft that I pick someone with “upside” who will probably never see my active lineup. I’m starting to wonder if I’ll regret not having more deep-league shares this year, though to touch on the speed factor once again, keep in mind that it takes the right roster to draft a middle infielder who will likely not steal a single base this season.

Nestor Cortes (264, + 52). I feel like he could be either a steal or a total disaster this year, but I’ve drafted him once so far just in case it’s the former. As injuries hit both real-life and fantasy rotations, every presumably healthy pitching arm becomes a bit more interesting.

Jackson Jobe (241, +50). I haven’t drafted him, and am thinking that might be a big mistake. Little risk at this price, so I hope he ends up on at least one of my rosters before I’m done drafting.

Kyle Finnegan (214, + 49). He’s moved up the boards, of course, due to his return to the Nationals and one of the few landing spots where he’ll be the unquestioned closer heading into the season. He’s a guy you draft in spite of yourself, but at least we know what we’re getting at this point, and a great first half out of him wouldn’t surprise me.

Ranger Suarez (262, +47). Grey’s pretty into him this year, and perhaps folks are noticing? Grab him now at this price, or forever hold your peace!

Rhys Hoskins (250, +47). Looks healthy and I think people must be remembering the good times of old. If he can get back to hitting in the mid-.240’s as he did from 2020-2022, he could be a crazy good source of cheap power that doesn’t even hurt you in the average department too much.

Lars Nootbaar (267; +45). I guess it’s the combo of a solid spring and a Jordan Walker injury that has people hoping that Nootbaar can finally stay healthy, tap into his power, and take things to the next level this year.

Michael Busch (250; +44). Another ADP rise that I may have personally contributed to! Sure, you might want a back-up plan, and he may be on the bench versus some if not most lefties… but for now I’m more than interested in seeing if a guy who’s batting the middle of what should be a solid lineup and hit 21 homers last year can find a new gear in 2025.

As always, happy drafting and hope to hear from you in the comments!