It’s hard to believe that the All-Star break is less than 3 weeks away. Maybe it’s just me but this season is flying along. Hopefully, you’ve had a fair amount of success to this point and you aren’t feeling the grind. Tonight, we have 7-game slate with a hodge-podge of pitching options. We’ll see the return of Danny Duffy, Kyle Tucker, and Michael Conforto from the IL. Reports are the Tucker has lost over 10 pounds and Duffy will be a pitch count. I would be cautious and fade both of them till they show they’re up to full strength.
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James Kaprielian, SP: $9,000 – The Rangers aren’t as bad offensively as they were last year, but they’re still a bottom 10 offense. The rookie has impressed in his second stint in the bigs, on his way to a 2.84 ERA with a 26.8% k rate.
Jose Urquidy, SP: $8,500 – Baltimore is bottom 5 in just about every offense category against RHP, as well as striking out at a 25.4% clip. The forecast is calling for mild temperatures, so we don’t have to worry about the mid-summer launching pad that is Camden Yards too much.
Catcher / First Base
Matt Olson, C/1B: $4,100 – The man has been a machine this season, .304/.381/.615 with 20 homers. He’s in the midst of a two-week heater as well, .408/.446/.776 with 5 bombs. He gets Mike Foltynewicz in this one, who has 2.0 HR/9 since the start of 2019. Ouch.
Dominic Smith, C/1B: $2,700 – It’s Kyle Wright’s shot at the 5th rotation spot for the Braves. He owns a 6.09 ERA and a 6.37 FIP in 68 IP across 4 MLB seasons. He’s shown flashes, including a playoff start but is largely underwhelming. Smith has fallen short of many people’s expectations so far this year but should be on for a good performance in this one.
Second base
Brandon Lowe, 2B: $3,100 – Lowe has hits in 8 of the last 10 games. He goes up against Garrett Richards, who has given up at least 3 runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. Outside of Boston’s 8th and 9th inning guys, their pen leaves much to be desired as well.
Jose Altuve, 2B: $4,100 – Altuve has returned from this season and doesn’t show any signs of stopping. Thomas Eshelman is on the mound for Baltimore tonight. Batters have made contact against him ~92% of the time in the zone and that’s not a great recipe against a team with the lowest K rate in baseball.
Third Base
Rafael Devers, 3B: $3,900 – The hot corner is pretty slim picking by estimation on this slate. The typical cast of characters have some tough matchups. Devers isn’t much different than respect but he does have low ownership leverage. Hardly anyone will be him because of the lefty/lefty matchup.
Matt Chapman, 3B: $3,100 – He comes into this one working on a 10-game hitting streak, including 4 homers in that stretch. Folty gives up homers with the best of them and I like Chapman and the A’s to continue to roll in this one.
Short Stop
Carlos Correa, SS: $4,000 – He’s striking out at the lowest rate of his career and walking at the highest rate. A combo that should serve him nicely against a control pitcher in a hitter’s park.
Wander Franco, SS: $2,500 – The #1 prospect in baseball hit a homer in his debut Tuesday night. There’s nothing more fun than a youngster who can swing it. Let’s cash in while he’s still cheap.
Outfield
Aaron Judge / Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $3,600, $3,400 – Danny Duffy will be a pitch count as they forgo a traditional rehab assignment. The Royals have a below-average bullpen to back him up. The Yankees are an interesting stack option as a result.
Michael Conforto, OF: $2,500 – The slugger should be making his first start tonight after being activated from the IL yesterday. He should plug back into the heart of the lineup. A cheap price and a soft matchup should produce a nice point per $ for us.
Yordan Alvarez, OF: $3,800 – The big man snapped his 8-game hitting streak last night. He has a nice matchup tonight and projects as the highest-scoring hitter on the slate.
Austin Meadows, OF: $3,700 – Meadows is tied for 9th in MLB with 50 RBI despite not recording one in his last 7 games. I like his chances in this one against an average righty.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No bad weather to report.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Brewers (Brandon Woodruff) at Diamondbacks (Caleb Smith) O/U 8 runs scored, take the under. Arizona and Milwaukee rank 27th and 28th in wRC+ respectively. Woodruff would be making a run at a Cy Young if it wasn’t for Jacob deGrom. Smith is having a nice bounce-back season and has split time between the rotation and bullpen. That total is just too high for the mix of pitching and poor hitting.
