We’ll be focusing mostly on the Main slate today, which is a 7:05 PM ET lock, but I’ll be sure to sprinkle in an afternoon play here and there for those of you who like that sort of thing. Both slates feature a tidy six games. The Main slate also features everyone’s favorite, Coors field! When trying to squeeze in those Coors bats with their inflated prices, we’ll need to find some cheap pitching and the occasional cheap hitter. A cheap pitcher I’ll be targeting tonight is Kyle Wright ($6,100). Wright had a fantastic spring and won the starting gig over preseason favorite for the spot, Touki Toussaint. That’s nothing to shake a stick at but Wright stumbled out of the gate. I’ll chalk that “meh” first start up to nerves and starting your first career game in the hostile city of Philadelphia. Five walks in four innings is pretty rough but that’s more walks than he had his entire spring training. Tonight we’re out of the band box in Philly and into home field advantage against a much weaker opponent in the Marlins. I mean, just look at that lineup…bleh. I like Wright and hope I’m not wrong tonight!
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J.A. Happ, SP: $8,700 – Happ is looking to avenge his last time out which was also against Baltimore. This recommendation might be more wishful thinking than anything but Happ shouldn’t be as bad as he was last week against this type of lineup. Let’s hope he was just shaking off the rust and can look more like himself this time around.
Corbin Burnes, SP: $7,300 – Burnes sat down nine of the first ten Cardinals he faced by way of the K and is a high risk/high reward start at home vs. the Cubs. The Cubs have looked pretty mediocre against Atlanta the last few days and this is a bet that it carries over to Milwaukee.
Chris Paddack, SP: $8,500 – Despite being on the road, Paddack is one of my top pitchers on the board for the early games. This is purely based on strikeout upside and fear of some of the other match-ups out there.
Jorge Lopez, SP: $6,000 – The Tigers lead the league in strikeouts on the young season. While Lopez is not exactly a strikeout machine, he’s not priced like one either. If you’re looking for a cheap play with some upside, Lopez is your guy.
Austin Barnes, C/1B: $3,300 – It seems to me that catchers get completely lost in this new C/1B hybrid spot, which leaves you in a position to differentiate your lineup by sneaking one in here. A catcher in Coors is a heck of a place to do so.
Freddie Freeman, C/1B: $4,700 – Freeman is the top dog at first base most nights and tonight is no exception. The Braves get a shot at Sandy Alcantara who has been known to get a little wild and let up some runs in his day.
Garrett Hampson, 2B: $2,900 – Hampson is possibly the cheapest Coors exposure you’ll find tonight, just make sure he’s actually in the lineup and the Rockies didn’t decide to play Ian Desmond at second or something.
Travis Shaw, 3B: $3,600 – Third base is THIN tonight. You’re looking at Shaw or Donaldson and I prefer Shaw’s upside here.
Ryon Healy, 3B: $3,300 – Well, third base isn’t much better in the afternoon. I’m looking to get some exposure to the SEA/CWS tilt though and Healy fits the bill.
Carlos Correa, SS: $3,200 – Correa isn’t a guy I usually recommend, but much of last season he was priced up around $4,000. At this price, he’s tough to pass up in that potent Houston lineup.
Fernando Tatis Jr., SS: $2,800 – Give me all the Tatis Jr. while his price is still sub $3,000.
Lorenzo Cain, OF: $4,000 – I’m OK with picking on Hamels tonight and getting the R/L match-up with Cain is a great place to start.
Brett Gardner, OF: $3,300 – I’m getting any and all lefties I can get in there vs. Bundy tonight. Gardner has settled in at the top of the lineup and should be in line to score plenty.
Daniel Palka, OF: $2,200 – I love me some cheap outfielders with power upside. If you haven’t noticed, I’m high on the Pale Hose in the afternoon. Eloy at $2,500 makes a nice grab as well. Mike Leake should be in for a long day.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Looks like a beautiful day for baseball!
Doing Lines In Vegas
Outside of the Coors Field 10 run over/under, the next highest run total is 9 runs in the SEA/CWS tilt. Hence the reason I’m looking to fit those bats in my lineup on the early slate. The early slate features the lowest run total, 7 runs in the Corbin (WAS) vs. Matz (NYM) match-up. The remainder of the main slate is filled with 8 and 8.5 run totals, so nothing stands out besides Coors. J.A. Happ and the Yankees are the biggest favorites on the day (-190) so I’m deploying Happ with confidence in Baltimore.