Hello everyone, and welcome to Sunday! I am happy to be back after a weekend off, and for this week and next, I will be writing on Sunday, instead of the usual Saturday slot, until the week after next, when everything will be back to normal. Hopefully you guys had a great two weeks, as we saw some great pitching from Jake Arrieta, Vincent Velasquez, and Tanner Roark on Saturday.
I don’t have that much of a funky intro for today (my apologies, but the rest of my family are good people!), but I’m still keeping the same theme from “last” week, which was to scout and analyze all Starting Pitchers, finding the ones we like, and the one’s we like to pick on, or target batters against.
Some of these plays will be no-brainers, such as this week, when a lot of the field was on Jake Arrieta, and for good reason, as he pitched a No-Hitter. However, as we saw on Saturday, not much of the field was on Tanner Roark, and he managed to have 10 K’s through 4 innings against the weak Minnesota Twins.
Again, the hindsight is 20/20, however through enough research on my part, I can try to find the diamond in the rough for you Razzball readers.
Let’s get to Sunday!
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Initial Thoughts On The Slate-
I don’t like the SP position today. Not at all. There are only 2, maybe 3 players I would want to select for today. To say the SP position is ugly is to put it in the nicest of ways. I think it is very hard not to pay up for the top guys, with my number one option being Carlos Carrasco, and the close number two guy being Drew Smyly. So what about the other pitchers on the slate? Francisco Liriano is certainly always in play, especially in Tournaments, with his superb 14.3% swinging strikeout rate combined with a stellar 51.2% GB rate, and an xFIP of 3.18, but in his first starts of the year thus far, he seems to be struggling with punching guys out, and already sports an 19.2% BB rate with 14 walks already this season. The BB rate won’t hold, but it’s never encouraging to see thus far. Jacob deGrom is a pretty good pitcher, but his numbers aren’t off the charts and for only $500 more, I want the off-the-charts guy in Carrasco. Same goes for Strasburg. Yes, he is a good pitcher with some upside and is in a good matchup, yet he has a low GB rate and a high HR/FB rate, and for $500 less I want Carrasco. There are a slew of other lower-price guys out there, but aside from those pitching in Coors (no thanks), many other pitchers are guys I want to pick on, and for the mediocre guys (like Michael Pineda or Yordano Ventura), they don’t instill confidence in me when I hit the green check button next to their name. Another thing I want to add. I will not be taking any Dodgers bats or Rockies bats today. I know it’s in Coors Field, but due to what DraftKings calls “Dynamic Pricing”, all of the main LAD and COL bats are super duper expensive, and with us implementing the strategy of paying up for pitching, it is hard to fit those bats in.
Carlos Carrasco, SP: $11,000 – Carrasco is the top Cash-Game play of the day, and with his amazing upside, you can even make a very strong argument to use the stud in Tournaments as well. Targeting SP’s against the mighty Detroit lineup isn’t something encouraged, but this is different. Not only does Carrasco sport one of the highest strikeout rates in the league at 29.60%, his swinging strikeout rate is at a very high 14.0%, showing to us that he is consistently getting guys out with his stuff. His 13.2% HR/FB rate is not very good at all, but the risk of him giving up dingers is very unlikely because he is one of the better groundball pitchers, with a rate close to 52%. He’s also one of the best SP’s against righty bats, with only a 2.54 xFIP vs. R, and a 30.30% strikeout rate! Seven out of nine total Detroit bats are righties. Yummy. Maybe we’ll see low ownership due to Strasburg and deGrom in the rotation?
Drew Smyly, SP: $9,100 – Here’s what we know. The Yankees are worse against southpaws than they are against against righties, which negates the theory of “lefty bats are always in play at Yankee Stadium due to the short porch” theory, and Smyly absolutely dominates left-handed batting, sporting a 42.9% strikeout rate through his 12 starts last year for Tampa. Yes, that stat may not have kept throughout the rest of the season, but throughout his entire career, he has had a 30% strikeout rate against lefties. Almost half of the Yankees bats are those of left-handedness, yet he as also shown us dominance against all bats, posting a 28% strikeout rate in 2015. He has a low GB rate, and a uncomfortably-high 14.3% HR/FB rate, so he could blow up at any time, but it isn’t likely, as throughout 3 starts this year, he has had 27 strikeouts and only 10 hits this year.
Jason Hammel, SP: $7,900 – If you absolutely cannot fit in Smyly or Carrasco, Hammel offers a safe pick with a pretty low salary with a pretty decent bet to snag the win, and maybe even do well for himself along the way if he can. The Cubbies’ offense is one of the best in the bigs right now, and facing a very weak pitcher in the likes of Alfredo Simon should provide a decent amount of runs for Hammel to be comfortable. Hammel doesn’t really strikeout that many batters, which caps his upside, but he rarely walks them to, as seen by a very good 5.6% BB rate. However, he does do well against both lefty and righties, so he isn’t at a significant disadvantage because there are Reds’ lefty bats. He’s not someone who I am over the moon about (I can say that about Smyly and especially Carrasco), but he is a fine safe choice that I wouldn’t talk you out of.
Buster Posey, C: $4,200- The chalk and pretty much only play at Catcher for today. No other Catcher makes me feel good about myself, and Posey is the only player I believe you must have in your lineup. Adam Conley isn’t the greatest (but not the worst) against right-handed batters, and Posey batted a .182 ISO and .366 wOBA against RHP’s last year. Enough said.
Justin Bour, 1B: $2,900 – After coming off an 2-3 game with two RBI’s, two runs, a walk and a HR Saturday, Bour has another excellent matchup against Matt Cain and the San Francisco Giants. Cain really struggles against lefties, only striking them out 10% of the time in 2015, and giving up a .404 wOBA and posting a 5.95 ( a freakin’ 5.95!) xFIP to lefties last year. Bour absolutely mashes against right-handed pitching, posting an excellent .249 ISO and .359 wOBA last year. If he keeps the strikeouts to a minimum (21.30 K% to RHP in 2015), he should be able to replicate another solid performance.
Kendrys Morales, 1B: $3,900 – The Kansas City Royals are the worst team to watch for fantasy purposes, as they mostly win games by playing smart baseball, instead of knocking HR’s or having a ton of RBI’s. However, today brings us a situation where Kansas City could do the exact opposite, against Mike Wright. Wright is not a ground-ball pitcher, only sporting a 36.9% rate in 2015. He also struggles mightily against lefties, giving up a .403 wOBA and a 5.54 xFIP, not to mention the fact that he only struck them out last year 11.7% of the time. Yikes. Morales has a great matchup, as he tears up RHP’s to the tune of a .254 ISO and a .354 wOBA, not to mention a 146 wRC+.
Ryan Howard, 1B: $3,900 – At the same price as Morales, he’s kinda Morales “Part 2”, but with a little bit more risk, so I would only use him in tourneys, as he should find some low ownership averages. Wily Peralta is not a good pitcher, to be absolutely frank. He gives up a 4.78 xFIP, .378 wOBA, and only strikes them out a weak 11.1% percent of the time. Howard mashes RHP’s to the tune of a .243 ISO and .341 wOBA in the 2015 season. The only reason why Morales should be the safer option and a little bit higher owned is because Howard strikes out 24.70% of the time to RHP’s, something that should depress ownership levels you can attack today.
Brett Lawrie, 2B: $3,700 – Derek Holland is really good against left-handed batting (2.22 xFIP, 27.9 K%, 4.7 BB% in 2015), yet he isn’t so hot against righties, giving up a 4.90 xFIP, 14.4 K%, and a .360 wOBA in 2015. This is a perfect game theory situation, as many in the field will see Holland’s stats against lefties and will not use any White Sox Bats, but we can do the exact opposite, as Lawrie is a great play. Lawrie sported a .191 ISO, which isn’t the worst, but it isn’t the greatest, yet he gets on base on the regular, with a .354 wOBA.
Jason Kipnis, 2B: $4,100 – If you can afford to pay up for Kipnis, now is a good time to do so. The Indians haven’t been Minnesota-bad, but they haven’t played their worse this year, so we shouldn’t be nervous rostering them. Lindor has been kinda up and down lately, but today he’s in a prime matchup against Shane Greene. Greene really struggles against lefties, with a 5.07 xFIP, .425 wOBA and a very weak 11.6% strikeout rate in 2015. Kipnis doesn’t have a ton of pop, so we shouldn’t expect dingers, but the rest of his game at the plate is equally good. He rarely strikes out, and has a fantastic walk rate at 14.0% against RHP’s in 2015. Combined with those stats, he really does get on base, sporting a .389 wOBA in 2015. Because he is a safe bet to get on base a ton, could there be stolen base upside? He already has 3 SB’s on the year, and had 12 last year, so it could happen.
Derek Dietrich, 3B/OF: $3,000 – Another great Marlin in a really good spot. Just like Bour, Dietrich absolutely shreds against right-handed pitching, posting a .229 ISO and a .369 wOBA, while having a slightly higher walk rate and lower strikeout rate than Bour. Like I previously mentioned above, Cain really struggles against lefties, and Dietrich should attack in a very plus-sized matchup for him.
Todd Frazier, 3B: $4,100 – A little pricey, however if you have some extra salary and want to upgrade at 3B over Dietrich or another player, look to Frazier, as he is in a prime matchup. Like I mentioned with Lawrie, this is a perfect game theory situation, as many in the field will see Holland’s stats against lefties and will not use any White Sox Bats, but we can do the exact opposite, as Frazier is an excellent play. He absolutely demolishes RHP’s, posting a .346 ISO and .377 wOBA in 2015. One of the top plays of the day.
Francisco Lindor, SS: $3,600 – Like I previously mentioned above with Kipnis, the Indians draw a great matchup against Shane Greene. Lindor has a pretty average .150 ISO, so we may not expect dingers, but he has a pretty good .358 wOBA against RHP’s last year, so we can expect him to get on base, and because he should bat near the top of the order, we can also expect for him to score some runs.
Colby Rasmus, OF: $3,700 – The Astros’ bats are always seem to be in play, yet the team is struggling as a whole. Yet for Rasmus, he has definitely held up his end of the bargain, as he is having a fantastic start to his 2016 campaign. However, today I would classify Rasmus as a Tournament-only play. Seldom will you find any analyst or fantasy writer suggesting to play a batter who is a lefty versus a southpaw, yet today, I am doing such (And not playing Dodgers/Rockies bats in Coors? You should be fired immediately!!!!!!!). Rasmus teared up southpaws in 2015, posting a .218 ISO and .365 wOBA, yet there is one stat that concerns me, his strikeout rate against LHP’s, which currently sits at 30.0%. Henry Owens really struggles against lefties (surprisingly), giving up a 5.89 xFIP, 12.50 BB% and a .378 wOBA in 2015. If Rasmus can limit the K’s, I like him a lot.
Jose Bautista, OF: $4,500 – The chalk play of the day, and for good measure, as he draws not only a fantastic matchup against Eric Surkamp (gives up a 5.70 xFIP and only has a 12.2% K rate), he also mashes lefties to the tune of a .221 ISO and a .363 wOBA, and doesn’t strike out often, so we can expect a great game from Bautista. He should also be highly owned, along with all of the Toronto bats (who are all in play as well, but very pricey)
Austin Jackson, OF: $3,200 – Another Chicago White Sock, and by this time, you should tell that I love that stack, as they should be very underowned compared to the Cubbies stack (just as good) and a Toronto stack (maybe better?), yet Jackson is another White Sox bat I will have in my lineup. Again, Holland is really good against lefties, but really bad against righties, and Jackson not only has a good wOBA at .336, he also has a pretty good 116 wRC+ against lefties in 2015. I’m always like low-owned stacks, and although this one isn’t the cheapest, I still believe they will fly under the radar, and you guys should take advantage of it.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains-
We’ve got some fantastic weather! Seriously, if teams aren’t playing in domes today, there are absolutely zero weather concerns today, so carry on with your selections knowing that games will not rain out.
Doing Lines In Vegas-
Just like you would expect, we have a “Coors Game” on our hands today, and with the increase of pricing on those players, Vegas also has that game at a huge 11.5 O/U, so we can expect plenty of runs to be had. However, I do not want any part of this game. Why? Well for one thing both of the SP’s are not the best to pick on, so I’m not overly eager to select either Dodger bats or Rockies bats, especially because we’ll see some very high ownership levels on all players, combined with their super high pricing. Looking further into the Vegas lines, Stephen Strasburg seems to be the safest option for this slate of games, as Vegas has WAS at a -225 moneyline. However, he is very expensive, and I much prefer Carlos Carrasco, who is equally safe yet has tremendous upside. Finally, almost all of the games for offensive purposes are listed at either 9 total runs scored, but most games are listed at 8.5 O/U, so there will be plenty of offensive weapons to choose from today.
