So recently I was watching the Disney adaption of Hercules and it hit me like [insert cliché] during the song “Go the Distance.” I started to tear up a bit as my daughter was watching Herc sing. She looks up at me and says, “Daddy are you crying?” To which I replied, “Noooo, of course not! watch your movie.” Phew, avoided a breakdown. Watching these movies again as a father and an adult, your perspective changes. You begin to see things on a deeper level, sometimes in the feels. Pushing the emotion down I couldn’t help but think in my head…
Watched Hercules last night with my kid, now thinking about SP going the distance 5 IP+ for Ws…
kid me: "good song."?
teen me: "I wanna belong too."?
now me: "Hercules already belonged! 2 damn parents loved him enough to let him go. Ain't that some shit!"? #FantasyBaseball— Ohtani Stan Account (@CoolwhipRB) August 25, 2020
Herc wanted to go the distance and belong to something bigger than himself. And that heart-wrenching song about reaching the goal (along with a suggestion from a commenter) got me thinking about starting pitchers in this crazy season, and even to keep in mind next year. Every game is a struggle it seems to get your starters to reach that magical 5th inning to be in line for the W. Also, just getting through the 5th is not enough. Often you need him to go 6-7 deep to ensure a shot at the win and maybe a few more Ks. You want them to reach those late innings when the cream of the bullpen can close it out. And as I said, going more innings is also an opportunity for more Ks. Take Shane Bieber for example; he has pitched the most innings since the beginning of last season and has led him to be 2nd only to Cole in total strikeouts.
Razzball’s favorite son, Shane Bieber just so happens sits at the top of this list. Call him Hercules. He goes the distance. He is the champion of getting the full value of those starts by making every mile, worth the while. Allow me to illuminate it for you: on this board, you will see total game starts since the start of the 2019 season (GS), total innings pitched, innings per game (IP/G), strikeout per 9 ip, and ERA. The final 2 require a bit more explanation.
WPA stands for Win Probability Added (which Biebs is also the king of) that calculates the accumulated value that a pitcher adds to the chances of their team winning over the course of the window of time. If a pitcher’s actions reduce his team’s chance of winning by 25% (like coughing up a 2-run bomb) then his WPA score is reduced via -0.25 points; likewise, if he Ks the side with a man on 3B in a 1-run game he gains +30 if it improved their chances by 30%. Each event that effects the outcome of the game is given a value, and Biebs to this point since April of 2019 has positively impacted 620% or 6+ extra wins.
This finally brings us to what I’m calling Distance Dollars (DIS$)—uh oh! Coolwhip’s making up currency again! The Feds got me on a watchlist now. DIS$ takes the GS, WPA plus the roto-adjusted values of IP/G, K/9, and ERA and combines it into a tasty dollar value convenient for ranking guys that not only gives the quantity but also the quality with a bit of a boost to those that have done it longer (more starts and deeper starts). And surprise, Bieber has been the top value at that. Yes, this is unintentionally turning into a Bieber stan post.
Top 100 Starters That Go The Distance
*Cue music* I have often dreamed…
| # | Name | Team | GS | IP | WPA | IP/G | K/9 | ERA | DIS$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shane Bieber | CLE | 41 | 265.0 | 6.20 | 6.46 | 11.6 | 2.85 | 44.0 |
| 2 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | 41 | 258.1 | 5.18 | 6.30 | 13.5 | 2.75 | 43.6 |
| 3 | Justin Verlander | HOU | 35 | 229.0 | 5.04 | 6.54 | 12.1 | 2.59 | 42.5 |
| 4 | Jacob deGrom | NYM | 39 | 245.0 | 4.73 | 6.28 | 11.5 | 2.31 | 42.2 |
| 5 | Lance Lynn | TEX | 41 | 259.2 | 5.03 | 6.33 | 10.5 | 3.33 | 40.8 |
| 6 | Zack Greinke | HOU | 40 | 249.0 | 4.76 | 6.23 | 8.0 | 2.89 | 39.1 |
| 7 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | TOR | 36 | 219.2 | 5.10 | 6.10 | 8.3 | 2.42 | 38.9 |
| 8 | Max Scherzer | WAS | 34 | 209.2 | 3.31 | 6.17 | 12.8 | 3.09 | 38.4 |
| 9 | Jack Flaherty | STL | 37 | 215.0 | 4.82 | 5.81 | 10.4 | 2.68 | 38.4 |
| 10 | Lucas Giolito | CWS | 37 | 225.1 | 2.90 | 6.09 | 11.7 | 3.36 | 37.3 |
| 11 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 33 | 207.1 | 3.34 | 6.28 | 9.6 | 2.86 | 37.2 |
| 12 | Patrick Corbin | WAS | 40 | 242.1 | 2.77 | 6.06 | 10.2 | 3.34 | 36.8 |
| 13 | Sonny Gray | CIN | 39 | 217.2 | 3.93 | 5.58 | 10.8 | 2.94 | 36.7 |
| 14 | Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 35 | 214.0 | 3.09 | 6.11 | 10.6 | 3.49 | 36.2 |
| 15 | Aaron Nola | PHI | 41 | 246.1 | 2.36 | 6.01 | 10.5 | 3.62 | 36.1 |
| 16 | Mike Minor | TEX | 39 | 243.2 | 3.18 | 6.25 | 8.7 | 3.88 | 36.0 |
| 17 | Charlie Morton | TBR | 37 | 211.1 | 3.24 | 5.71 | 10.9 | 3.24 | 35.7 |
| 18 | Mike Clevinger | CLE | 25 | 148.2 | 3.89 | 5.95 | 11.5 | 2.78 | 35.5 |
| 19 | Yu Darvish | CHC | 38 | 221.2 | 2.24 | 5.83 | 11.4 | 3.49 | 35.3 |
| 20 | Trevor Bauer | CIN | 40 | 251.0 | 1.01 | 6.28 | 11.0 | 4.12 | 35.1 |
| 21 | Luis Castillo | CIN | 39 | 228.0 | 1.87 | 5.85 | 11.0 | 3.51 | 34.9 |
| 22 | Walker Buehler | LAD | 35 | 207.1 | 2.54 | 5.92 | 10.6 | 3.39 | 34.9 |
| 23 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 37 | 221.0 | 3.47 | 5.97 | 7.5 | 3.58 | 34.4 |
| 24 | Mike Soroka | ATL | 32 | 188.1 | 3.69 | 5.89 | 7.2 | 2.77 | 34.2 |
| 25 | Jose Berrios | MIN | 39 | 236.1 | 1.68 | 6.06 | 8.9 | 3.85 | 33.8 |
| 26 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | 37 | 233.2 | 0.73 | 6.32 | 8.4 | 3.74 | 33.4 |
| 27 | Marco Gonzales | SEA | 41 | 246.2 | 1.68 | 6.02 | 6.8 | 3.83 | 32.9 |
| 28 | Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 34 | 203.1 | 1.96 | 5.98 | 9.4 | 3.81 | 32.9 |
| 29 | Zac Gallen | ARI | 22 | 123.0 | 2.99 | 5.59 | 10.5 | 2.56 | 32.1 |
| 30 | Max Fried | ATL | 38 | 205.1 | 2.13 | 5.40 | 9.3 | 3.59 | 31.8 |
| 31 | German Marquez | COL | 36 | 222.0 | 1.01 | 6.17 | 9.0 | 4.78 | 31.3 |
| 32 | Dallas Keuchel | CWS | 27 | 161.0 | 2.75 | 5.96 | 6.8 | 3.35 | 31.1 |
| 33 | Marcus Stroman | NYM | 32 | 184.1 | 1.30 | 5.76 | 7.8 | 3.22 | 30.8 |
| 34 | Dakota Hudson | STL | 37 | 200.0 | 2.03 | 5.41 | 7.2 | 3.29 | 30.8 |
| 35 | Kenta Maeda | MIN | 33 | 179.2 | 1.90 | 5.44 | 9.8 | 3.76 | 30.5 |
| 36 | Brandon Woodruff | MIL | 30 | 163.1 | 1.85 | 5.44 | 10.5 | 3.64 | 30.4 |
| 37 | Mike Fiers | OAK | 40 | 221.2 | 2.29 | 5.54 | 6.0 | 4.06 | 30.3 |
| 38 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | 37 | 214.2 | 0.83 | 5.80 | 7.8 | 4.15 | 30.2 |
| 39 | Adam Wainwright | STL | 36 | 205.2 | 1.10 | 5.71 | 7.8 | 3.94 | 30.2 |
| 40 | Madison Bumgarner | ARI | 38 | 225.0 | -0.22 | 5.92 | 8.6 | 4.32 | 30.1 |
| 41 | Chris Sale | BOS | 25 | 147.1 | 0.51 | 5.89 | 13.3 | 4.4 | 30.1 |
| 42 | Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 32 | 197.2 | -0.38 | 6.18 | 9.2 | 4.28 | 30.0 |
| 43 | Chris Paddack | SDP | 34 | 183.1 | 0.98 | 5.39 | 9.6 | 3.58 | 29.8 |
| 44 | Zach Davies | SDP | 38 | 201.0 | 1.90 | 5.29 | 6.2 | 3.36 | 29.7 |
| 45 | Aaron Civale | CLE | 17 | 103.2 | 1.91 | 6.10 | 7.7 | 2.95 | 29.7 |
| 46 | Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 37 | 205.2 | 1.75 | 5.56 | 7.5 | 4.33 | 29.5 |
| 47 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | 34 | 208.0 | -0.43 | 6.12 | 6.9 | 3.94 | 29.4 |
| 48 | Brad Keller | KCR | 33 | 193.1 | 0.89 | 5.86 | 6.8 | 3.86 | 29.4 |
| 49 | Zach Plesac | CLE | 25 | 142.2 | 2.13 | 5.71 | 7.4 | 3.34 | 29.3 |
| 50 | Jake Odorizzi | MIN | 33 | 169.0 | 1.93 | 5.12 | 10.0 | 3.78 | 29.2 |
| 51 | Dylan Bundy | LAA | 37 | 205.1 | 0.00 | 5.55 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 28.8 |
| 52 | Tyler Glasnow | TBR | 19 | 94.2 | 1.87 | 4.98 | 12.6 | 2.66 | 28.6 |
| 53 | Matthew Boyd | DET | 39 | 220.0 | -1.22 | 5.64 | 11.3 | 4.99 | 28.5 |
| 54 | Frankie Montas | OAK | 23 | 128.2 | 1.31 | 5.59 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 28.4 |
| 55 | Jon Gray | COL | 33 | 188.2 | 0.54 | 5.72 | 8.2 | 4.44 | 28.2 |
| 56 | Michael Pineda | MIN | 27 | 152.0 | 1.30 | 5.63 | 8.5 | 3.97 | 28.1 |
| 57 | Mike Leake | ARI | 32 | 197.0 | -0.31 | 6.16 | 5.8 | 4.29 | 27.9 |
| 58 | Jeff Samardzija | SFG | 35 | 195.0 | 0.37 | 5.57 | 6.7 | 3.97 | 27.9 |
| 59 | Julio Teheran | LAA | 37 | 187.1 | 1.39 | 5.06 | 8.2 | 4.23 | 27.6 |
| 60 | Chris Bassitt | OAK | 32 | 175.1 | 0.08 | 5.48 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 27.5 |
| 61 | Jon Lester | CHC | 38 | 208.2 | -0.23 | 5.49 | 8.2 | 4.57 | 27.5 |
| 62 | Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 36 | 187.2 | 0.71 | 5.21 | 8.7 | 4.32 | 27.4 |
| 63 | Robbie Ray | ARI | 40 | 205.1 | -1.08 | 5.13 | 12.2 | 4.87 | 27.4 |
| 64 | Domingo German | NYY | 24 | 134.2 | 1.35 | 5.61 | 9.5 | 4.28 | 27.4 |
| 65 | James Paxton | NYY | 34 | 171.0 | 0.20 | 5.03 | 11.2 | 4.16 | 27.4 |
| 66 | Danny Duffy | KCR | 30 | 165.2 | 0.88 | 5.52 | 8.4 | 4.29 | 27.4 |
| 67 | Miles Mikolas | STL | 32 | 184.0 | -0.19 | 5.75 | 7.0 | 4.16 | 27.2 |
| 68 | Dinelson Lamet | SDP | 21 | 111.1 | -0.02 | 5.30 | 12.6 | 3.48 | 27.2 |
| 69 | Zach Eflin | PHI | 33 | 184.0 | -0.10 | 5.58 | 7.8 | 4.21 | 27.1 |
| 70 | Cole Hamels | CHC | 27 | 141.2 | 0.87 | 5.25 | 9.1 | 3.81 | 26.6 |
| 71 | Joey Lucchesi | SDP | 32 | 169.0 | 0.59 | 5.28 | 8.7 | 4.31 | 26.6 |
| 72 | Anibal Sanchez | WAS | 36 | 196.0 | -0.26 | 5.44 | 7.2 | 4.32 | 26.6 |
| 73 | Brett Anderson | MIL | 37 | 204.0 | -0.23 | 5.51 | 4.9 | 3.93 | 26.5 |
| 74 | Blake Snell | TBR | 30 | 135.2 | 1.66 | 4.52 | 12.2 | 4.05 | 26.4 |
| 75 | Caleb Smith | MIA | 29 | 156.1 | 0.28 | 5.39 | 9.8 | 4.49 | 26.4 |
| 76 | Ryan Yarbrough | TBR | 21 | 122.2 | 1.23 | 5.84 | 7.1 | 4.11 | 26.4 |
| 77 | Tanner Roark | TOR | 37 | 192.1 | -0.18 | 5.20 | 8.4 | 4.49 | 26.3 |
| 78 | Homer Bailey | MIN | 32 | 168.1 | 0.86 | 5.26 | 8.2 | 4.54 | 26.1 |
| 79 | Yonny Chirinos | TBR | 21 | 115.2 | 0.50 | 5.51 | 7.9 | 3.42 | 25.9 |
| 80 | Wade Miley | CIN | 37 | 179.2 | 0.76 | 4.86 | 7.6 | 4.16 | 25.8 |
| 81 | Joe Musgrove | PIT | 34 | 183.0 | -0.54 | 5.38 | 8.5 | 4.67 | 25.7 |
| 82 | Spencer Turnbull | DET | 36 | 178.2 | 0.07 | 4.96 | 8.7 | 4.33 | 25.7 |
| 83 | J.A. Happ | NYY | 34 | 176.1 | 0.98 | 5.19 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 25.3 |
| 84 | Martin Perez | BOS | 36 | 192.1 | 0.06 | 5.34 | 6.9 | 4.91 | 25.2 |
| 85 | Jakob Junis | KCR | 34 | 188.0 | -0.90 | 5.53 | 8.3 | 5.17 | 25.0 |
| 86 | Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 19 | 101.0 | 0.75 | 5.32 | 11.1 | 4.54 | 24.7 |
| 87 | Andrew Heaney | LAA | 25 | 132.1 | -0.05 | 5.29 | 10.8 | 4.83 | 24.6 |
| 88 | Pablo Lopez | MIA | 27 | 145.2 | -0.03 | 5.40 | 7.9 | 4.39 | 24.6 |
| 89 | Rick Porcello | NYM | 39 | 207.1 | -0.32 | 5.32 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 24.5 |
| 90 | Griffin Canning | LAA | 24 | 124.0 | 0.30 | 5.17 | 9.0 | 4.14 | 24.3 |
| 91 | John Means | BAL | 32 | 162.0 | 0.20 | 5.06 | 6.6 | 4.17 | 24.3 |
| 92 | Chase Anderson | TOR | 32 | 148.2 | 1.10 | 4.65 | 7.8 | 4.06 | 24.3 |
| 93 | Steven Matz | NYM | 35 | 182.1 | -1.49 | 5.21 | 8.7 | 4.84 | 24.0 |
| 94 | Jose Quintana | CHC | 31 | 167.0 | -0.99 | 5.39 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 23.8 |
| 95 | Kyle Gibson | TEX | 36 | 192.2 | -2.12 | 5.35 | 8.7 | 5.14 | 23.7 |
| 96 | Trevor Richards | TBR | 26 | 136.2 | -0.68 | 5.26 | 8.3 | 4.28 | 23.6 |
| 97 | David Price | BOS | 22 | 107.1 | 0.49 | 4.88 | 10.7 | 4.28 | 23.5 |
| 98 | Jason Vargas | – – – | 29 | 148.2 | -0.40 | 5.13 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 23.5 |
| 99 | Tyler Mahle | CIN | 29 | 149.1 | -0.63 | 5.15 | 9.3 | 4.88 | 23.4 |
| 100 | Jordan Lyles | TEX | 33 | 163.1 | -0.37 | 4.95 | 8.8 | 4.96 | 23.4 |
The Top
So looking through this list, there’s defintely guys you expected to see near the top. Gerrit Cole, despite a bit of a rough 2020 (comparitively for him), is still comfortably in 2nd. Then you see Justin Verlander (who’s sitting out this year) and Jacob DeGrom, the other elite starters not too far behind. You probably thought Scherzer would be up there too, but missing some starts last year due to injury and some mediocre starts this season have him out of the top level. The final name though in that top tier is none other than Lance Lynn. After a few hickups early on Lynn has been one of the most consistent starters not just going deep into games, but providing quality innings too with an ERA below 3.40 and a K-rate north of 10. He’s your #5 starter and last of the 40+ values. Validating another one our heart-throbs. *Swoon*
Just below him is couple classic soft-tossers in Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Having heaters under 90 mph these guys don’t carry the elite K-rates that others in the top 20 do, but their body of work in quality innings with soft contact and navigating lineups has them near the top. They have provided a lot of innings with topshelf ratios that balance your pitching staff, likely saving you from yourself and your affliction of SNTS and chasing rookie roofies (me too). They are stabilizers.
Everyone in the top 30 has provided over 30 starts in this timeframe other than Mike Clevinger and Zac Gallen. That speaks volumes to their limited quality. Clevinger limited due injury and getting a Fastpass for Mr. Plesac’s Wild Ride now finds himself in the favorable NL West, a solid home for good pitching, especially with the May Gray and June Gloom rolling into downtown San Diego on game nights. Now, Gallen… I’ve talked about my undying love for him. And just yesterday, Grey and I were discussing whether he has now pitched his way into the top 8 starters for next year. I think the answer has to be yes if this campaign of his continues anywhere close to this level to end the season. He’s now at 22 (update: 23) consecutive starts allowing 3 runs or fewer to begin a career; that’s an all-time rookie record. And now he’s chasing DeGrom’s MLB record of 26 that was set in 2018. The kid has the stuff.
Yu Darvish would be a lot higher if the first part of last season wasn’t so bad. Around late May/June last year, he corrected his mechanics and got his groove back. And he’s been dominating ever since. You can read a full breakdown I did on him here.
Next edition, we’ll dive deeper into the 2020 season specifically, along with breaking down just how good those innings are, quality starts, and otherwise. We will find a way, to track the best that can go the distance. We will see who really belongs.
If you want more Coolwhip to top-off your baseball experience, fantasy or otherwise, you can follow me on Twitter: @CoolwhipRB.
