Fret not, Razzball nation. The wait is almost over. As of today, we’re now just three short days away before the official start of the MLB regular season. Pretty soon, you won’t be refreshing your fantasy team’s live stats page and wondering why DeShields hasn’t stolen a base yet. They’re coming! In the meantime, let’s take a quick look at one of the most surprising rookies from the 2015 season, St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Randal Grichuk. For those of you who are unfamiliar with the bear/bull series, here’s the deal. Each week, I’ll be highlighting a different fantasy-relevant player and creating a framework of where that player is trending in fantasy terms. After some background analysis, number crunching, and sometimes even a player comp or two, I’ll reveal whether I’m bearish (pessimistic) or bullish (optimistic) on the near future of the player in question. So essentially a one player buy/sell. Dig it? Awesome. Now let’s take a look at this week’s player under the microscope…
As I briefly mentioned in the opening paragraph, Randal Grichuk caught the fantasy world by surprise last season. Still technically a rookie after seeing limited playing time with the Cardinals in 2014, Grichuk was essentially an afterthought in fantasy circles, considered to be a far inferior prospect than players such as Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, Corey Seager, Miguel Sano, and Kyle Schwarber, among many others, entering the 2015 season. However, due to an injury to Matt Holliday and the overall ineffectiveness/sucktitude of Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos, Grichuk received fairly regular playing time and produced this batting line:
103 G, 350 PA, 49 runs, 17 HR, 47 RBI, 4 SB, .276/.329/.548 triple slash
Not too shabby. First, let’s take a look at some of the positives regarding Grichuk’s 2015 season:
• Grichuk’s .272 isolated power (ISO) was the highest mark among all rookies last season and the 10th highest mark in MLB among players with at least 200 plate appearances (352 qualifiers). The three players directly behind him in that category were the 40+ HR trio of Josh Donaldson, Carlos Gonzalez, and Nelson Cruz.
• His average exit velocity of 93.28 mph (according to baseballsavant) on batted balls was the 8th highest in MLB out of 345 qualifiers with a minimum of 100 ABs with data. When filtered for just fly balls and line drives, his average velocity of 97.77 mph ranked 4th in MLB.
• Grichuk’s average fly ball distance of 302.21 feet was the 23rd highest mark out of 284 qualifiers in MLB last season.
• This offseason, the Cardinals traded Jay to the Padres and placed Bourjos on waivers, where he was claimed by the Phillies. Grichuk’s two main competitors for playing time in center field are no longer on the roster.
• Here’s a take-it-with-a-grain-of-salt stat: this spring, Grichuk has produced a .326/.383/.605 triple slash line including 6 doubles and 2 homers. While spring stats aren’t always useful, a strong spring from a 24 year old player like Grichuk can foreshadow a breakout season.
On the flip side, here are a few negatives to consider regarding Grichuk:
• His 31.4% K% last season was the 6th highest mark in MLB among players with at least 200 PA.
• He stole just 4 bases in 103 games last season and only cracked double digits in steals once in his minor league career.
• His .365 BABIP was the 17th highest mark in MLB and is likely due for a correction this season (despite his frequent hard contact).
• An elbow injury landed Grichuk on the disabled list last August and severely limited him to the point where he could barely throw upon his return in September. This could be an issue moving forward.
Bottom line: Power, power, and more power. That’s Grichuk in a nutshell. However, with that power comes a ton of strikeouts, which could sink his batting average and limit his counting stats if not kept in check. The elbow injury is something that shouldn’t be dismissed either. Ultimately, Grichuk is a young power hitter just entering his prime years. I expect him to hit 25 homers with a .260ish batting average, and with good health and 600+ plate appearances, 30+ homers isn’t out of the question.
Final Verdict:
