We’re inching toward the MLB trade deadline and the anticipation is starting to grow. The biggest question on everyone’s mind: Will Shohei Ohtani be taking his unique set of skills to another team, or will the Angels actually be buyers and try to add pieces around him? We all know how this works, every discussion related to the trade deadline starts right there with him. The “experts” will provide their opinion on what the Angels should do, where Shohei may go, what type of package would be required to land him, etc. Once that is done, then they’ll talk about everyone else.
While the “what if” factor surrounding Shohei is fascinating to me as well, it’s the “everyone else” part that is probably going to win a World Series. That’s what we’re going to talk about today. Specifically, we’re going to look a little closer at some of the pitchers who need a change of scenery.
Of course, you’ve come to know in this column we use analytics to make our case. Today will be no different. The threshold being applied to our likely group of traded pitchers is FIP/xFIP – ERA. Why this? I’ll get to that in a minute. Let’s have a brief refresher first.
FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) are used to evaluate a pitcher’s performance and predict future performance more accurately than ERA. They aim to isolate a pitcher’s performance from the influence of their defense and ballpark factors.
FIP: FIP focuses solely on the events that a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitch, and home runs allowed. FIP is designed to assess a pitcher’s individual skill by eliminating the impact of defense, luck, and other factors outside their control.
A league average FIP is usually around 4.00. If a pitcher’s FIP is lower than their ERA, it suggests they might have been unlucky with batted balls or defense. A higher FIP than ERA indicates possible good luck or better defense behind them.
xFIP: xFIP goes a step further by eliminating how many home runs a pitcher should be allowed based on their fly ball rate and the league-average home run-to-fly ball rate. It accounts for the fact that the home run-to-fly ball ratio can fluctuate and may not fully reflect a pitcher’s skill level.
xFIP can be particularly useful when evaluating pitchers who may have experiences an unusually high or low home run rate, helping to provide a more accurate picture of their true performance. Also, xFIP can be helpful when evaluating pitchers at ballparks with significantly different park factors or those changing teams. And there’s the important piece today, “those changing teams.”
Again, for today, we’re looking at SPs who are “tradeable” given their individual and team situations. Ideally, we want to identify those pitchers who we expect a change of scenery may in fact do them some good. So we’ll take particular interest in those with a FIP or xFIP lower than their ERA.
Scanning the top 100 pitchers in WAR, here is my short list of hurlers that I think have a very good chance at being traded (note Shohei Ohtani is not listed in the table).
Among these pitchers, here are a few that stand out to me, given our target criteria.
Seth Lugo – Seth Lugo has been a reliable SP for the Padres, spinning a 3.78/1.25 ERA/WHIP over 13 starts. As noted above, his FIP/xFIP are even better, making him an attractive low-cost target for a team looking to add to their rotation. A word of caution though, his fastball speed is down a tick, Swing K% and K/9 are also both down, and his LD% is up. He’s not going to fix a new team by himself but in the right circumstance, where a strong offense overcomes what he gives up from the mound, he’ll be a strong late-season contributor.
Patrick Corbin – The southpaw appears to have returned to some semblance of his former self and now may be the best time to move him from our Nation’s Capital. Make no mistake, when I say “some semblance of his former self” I’m not talking about 2018/2019 where he maintained a low 3.00 ERA and 10-11 K/9. What I mean is, he’s generally limiting damage, as indicated by noting that his BB/9 and BABIP are both down from recent years and LOB% is back up over 70%. A look at his 2023 heat map shows he’s more dialed in than he has been in recent years.
Corbin is not a top of the rotation piece anymore but generally gets to the 6th inning in his games so would be attractive to a team with a strong pen. With another year of control and the Nationals going nowhere, now is the time for Corbin to move on.
Brady Singer – I’ve liked Brady Singer for a long time and really wanted to see him achieve some success in KC. Unfortunately, that ship has sailed and it’s time for him to move on. Singer is on an expiring contract so if KC doesn’t get something here, they’ll be doing themselves a disservice. Looking at his FIP/xFIP numbers, a significant correction to his putrid 2023 numbers should be right around the corner once the uniform changes. Looking through his underlying metrics across the board, I’m trying to find a hint of optimism to share but I’m really not finding much. Let’s just chalk this one up to a gut feel.
Lance Lynn – Lance Lynn has a very ugly 6.00+ ERA over his first 100 IP. It’s time to clear that out and start over. Amplified by the fact that he has some of the greatest disparity in FIP/xFIP – ERA rates in the table above, optimism for a correction should be high here. How great of a correction could we expect?
Well, his K/9 numbers are currently the highest of his career, GB/FB rate is amongst his career best as well, he’s stranding runners (LOB%) at a nice clip, and Swing K% is also at a career best. He’s pounding the zone and going deep into games.
This one is pretty clear to me. The paint may be scratched and there’s some rust on the bumper, but a look under the hood shows the engine is running fine.
Steven Matz – Steven Matz has a couple years of control left so this may help his case for a trade if the Cardinals realize taking a step back is to their favor. Matz has really taken a step back from the 10+ K/9 and 1.88 BB/9 numbers from last season. His fastball is still holding above 94 mph though and he’s maintaining a Swing K% almost 11. There’s no question he’s been pretty unlucky (BABIP of .340) but should be noted he’s generally inducing a lot of weak contact and his FIP/xFIP suggest a change of scenery to a team with strong pitching credentials (Rays?) would be just what the Doctor ordered.
Before putting a bow on this, I wanted to share a couple additional names that this analysis identified but didn’t quite make the top 100 in WAR list above. Austin Gomber (COL) and Luis Medina (OAK). For various reasons, I’m not convinced either will be moved by the deadline but if their names in fact hit the transaction wire, I’ll take a deeper dive as to why I noticed them this week.
By the time we talk again next week, the trade deadline will be in full view and hopefully, we’ll have a few deals already made to chew on. Until then, thanks again for traveling with me on this ride through the wonderful world of baseball analytics. As I always say, keep sifting through the number. That’s where you find the gems!
Follow me on Twitter: @Derek_Favret.
Until next time, my friends!
