Tommy John season is back! Actually it already started a few days ago with the news A.J. Puk would need the famed procedure. Actually it started before that, when we learned David Phelps would need it. Actually it started before that, when we learned Jharel Cotton would need it. Actually….well, you get the idea. Apparently routinely throwing a baseball isn’t good for your elbow. In fairness, neither is slamming your head into 300 pound men running as fast as they can, but hey, Americans love watching both activities so much that those who are able to do them the best get well compensated for it, so it’s all good, right? Just don’t slam your head into the tall white guy while he’s throwing or punting, we can’t tolerate that. Anyway, back to baseball because you’re here for some quality Daily Fantasy Baseball analysis. To those who read me last year – I appreciate you continuing to be a loyal reader. To the rest of you – welcome to the party…so let’s raise a glass of the bubbly, or your beverage of choice to the 2018 MLB season – may our hitters drop multiple bombs and our pitchers throw multiple 20 strikeout games (hey, we’re greedy) and we can retire wealthier and wiser and most importantly, sooner. Also, those last three sentences are the most amount of pomp and fluff you’ll get in this article all season, since that’s not my style and odds are, not yours either.
So before we get any older, on to the picks…
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PITCHERS
Chris Sale, SP: $11,200 – Sale is the type of pitcher you want to roster as much as possible since he strikes out the world and doesn’t walk anyone. Steamer has him projected for 31% strikeouts and 5.5% walks. He just so happens to be pitching against a team that has virtually no right handed power (CJ Cron and Wilson Ramos are the 2 best right handed power bats on the team) and while this group of Rays aren’t going to strike out a ton, it’s not a team that is going to give Sale trouble (the best hitter on the team, CJ Cron, is projected to be 1% over league average). Sale’s projected strikeouts are still the highest on the day giving him the advantage on day 1 of the season, not to mention his slightly lower price, but if you like Kershaw more, I’m not going to argue with you.
Clayton Kershaw, SP: $11,700 – Kershaw is in the “fun” decline phase where he’s still one of the top 2 or so pitchers in the league but he just can’t do it as much and he’ll go on the DL at some point with a back issue. But as long as he’s pitching, we can always play him because he’s still really really good and the Giants probably aren’t. Kershaw’s projection this year is nice, 28.7% strikeouts and 4.6% walks. His home run rate was a little high last year due to a 15.9% HR/FB rate, but I would expect that to come down to his career rates (note that his ground ball rate is coming down as he’s in decline and I do think that’s real). The Giants are a better offense than the Rays and since they aren’t subtly tanking, they have actual real life major league hitters, which pushes Kershaw below Sale for cash games.
Other Aces – Corey Kluber, $11,400 and Luis Severino, $10,000 are both in worse matchups than Sale and Kershaw and aren’t as good. Kluber’s projections are similar to Kershaw (I said similar, not as good, nor better) with 28.4% strikeouts and 5.7% walks and is facing a very solid Mariner lineup with power bats stacked in the middle. One thing going for Kluber is that the bottom of the Mariner lineup (Healy, Zunino, Ichiro) is pretty bad and may give Kluber a spot to rack up outs pretty quickly, giving him the chance to throw another inning or two. Also, Dee Gordon is still not good at hitting baseballs (projected 14% below league average). Severino is facing the Blue Jays who have some decent left handed bats (Granderson, Smoak, Morales), in a good park for offense and oh yeah, they still have Josh Donaldson, who is still elite (projected 42% above league average) pushing him to GPP only.
Jon Gray, SP: $7,800 – With the humidor in Arizona, it’s likely that Arizona is at best a neutral park for offense – which means pitchers are underpriced (and hitters overpriced) to start the year. Jon Gray’s projection is pretty nice (24.5% strikeouts and 7.9% walks) and you’re going to get people who are scared to run Gray because of Arizona’s history of an extreme hitters park and the Diamondbacks reputation as a good offensive team (The top 4 are solid, but once you get past that it drops off really fast). As far as Patrick Corbin goes, he’s basically a league average or slightly above league average pitcher (20.1% strikeouts and 8% walks with a 49.5% groundball rate) but the Rockies are also terrible at offense once you get past Blackmon and Arenado (and depending on what CarGo does this year). So with the possibly offense suppressing Chase Field, you may get a nice little boost for Corbin’s run suppression.
HITTERS
George Springer, OF, $3,800 – Springer gets to face Cole Hamels today, whose once stellar command (8.6% walk rate) has declined as has his ability to miss bats (9.7% swinging strike). Hamels likely isn’t going to bounce back to be as good as he was, he’s become more of a platoon pitcher who can get lefties out (11.8% K-BB% and 60.8% ground balls) he’s susceptible vs righties (7.6% K-BB% and 43.8% ground balls). Springer destroys lefties (156 wRC+) with power (.250 ISO) and has the team around him to stack.
Carlos Correa, SS, $4,000 – Correa finally broke out last year and had a 152 wRC+ and vs lefties he smoked them to the tune of 187 wRC+ and .217 ISO and even though he’s expensive, he’s well worth the price.
Alex Bregman, 3B, $3,300 – Bregman is another one of the Astros right handed bats that mashes lefties. Bregman only had a 160 wRC+ vs lefties last year with a .239 ISO. This price is a misprice and the combination of hitting ability, platoon advantage and facing Cole Hamels mean that there are scenarios where you don’t play him in cash, but they are few and far between.
The Other Astros – I don’t want you to think that just because I did not list Jose Altuve, that means I don’t consider him a play. I just didn’t want to list more than 3 players from the same team. Altuve’s probably a touch too expensive for cash at $4,300, but 2B is not a particularly attractive position today, so you can certainly make a case for him despite the high price tag. In GPPs, you can make the case for pretty much any right handed Astro. Further, since Springer, Bregman, Altuve and Correa are likely to be the top 4 hitters (as of this writing, the Astros have not announced their lineup, but it’s a good bet those are the top 4 in some order) whoever is batting 5th (unless it’s Reddick) is going to be a great GPP play for anyone stacking the Astros. By doing this, you fade one of the top 4, and pivot by using the next hitter in the lineup to get a more contrarian lineup while still using the Astros.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $4,600 – Hittertron has him at .44 HR today. That’s a mind-boggling number. And it’s entirely reasonable. Last year’s HR-champ moves out of the offensive deathpark that is Marlins Park and into a more reasonable stadium. Unfortunately for Yankee fans, the Yankees start north of the border in Toronto. Fortunately for DFS players reading this blog, Rogers Centre will give Stanton even more of a boost. Stanton is going to have one heck of a year this year (Steamer projects him at 59.7 HRs and a .289/.384/.663 triple-slash) and he’s routinely going to be one of the best plays on a slate. That starts today.
Aaron Judge, OF: $4,100 – He’s probably not quite as good as Stanton, although he may be, he averaged a bonkers 94.9 MPH exit velo in 2017, which topped the league. Steamer “only” projects Judge for 39.8 HRs and a .253/.367/.517 triple-slash this season. He may not have quite the projection that Stanton has, but let’s not forget – he had a .430 wOBA and a 173 wRC+ last year – both of which were better than Stanton (the reason why Stanton projects better than Judge is Judge didn’t hit particularly well in the minors and Stanton has been hitting pretty well in his MLB career).
Gary Sanchez, C/1B: $3,900 – This one is tough, and to me, it’s a GPP only, because you can’t think of him as the best hitting catcher anymore. FanDuel lumped Catcher with First Base for #reasons, so instead of just asking yourself if it’s worth it to pay up for Sanchez instead of running the cheap catcher du jour, you have to ask yourself whether it’s worth it to run him instead of the cheap first baseman (who is most likely a far superior hitter than whatever cheap catcher was being considered), or an elite, expensive first baseman. There isn’t a high end 1B I like today (since Rizzo is early only), but there’s a bunch of good 1B value plays, so I simply can’t recommend Sanchez in cash – but as part of a Yankees stack, it’s definitely a good move, and the fact that he’ll be lumped with 1Bs probably will decrease his ownership.
Lucas Duda, C/1B: $2,500 – Look, the five guys (six if you count Sanchez) we just mentioned above are all expensive. And I know what you’re saying – hey, how the heck can I afford all these guys as well as Chris Sale. Well, you can do that because Lucas Duda is mispriced. Duda has always been a good hitter and is projected to have a 117 wRC+ this year and vs righties in his career has had a 132 wRC+ with .236 ISO. He’s facing James Shields, who has some problems vs lefties with a 4.7% K-BB% and a 41.3% ground ball rate. This is a misprice here, and there’s really not much more to write. Play Duda. Don’t get cute and overthink it.
Eddie Rosario, OF: $2,600 – And we continue the mispricing with Rosario. Hittertron has him as 13th best hitter tomorrow – and that’s independent of price. He’s facing Dylan Bundy who really struggles to get lefties out (9% K-BB% with 30.3% fly balls). Rosario, luckily, smoked righties last year with a 135 wRC+ and a .268 ISO giving you those sweet sweet home runs. He’s already pencilled in as the cleanup hitter for one of the most hitter-friendly matchups out there. I shouldn’t need to break it down much more than that. The only reason not to play him is if you’re going with a cheap pitcher and stacking expensive outfielders from one team, like the Yankees (which is a perfectly reasonable GPP play, mind you).
Logan Morrison, C/1B: $2,500 – Lomo dropped 38 bombs last year en route to a career year and was one of the main advocates for hitting the ball hard and in the air. If you believe last year was a new baseline, he should be a core part of your cash lineup as he crushed righties last year and had a 137 wRC+ with a huge .298 ISO. He’s also facing the aforementioned Bundy. The one good thing about FanDuel combining C and 1B is that now we have a Utility Spot, which will allow us to play two first basemen when the need arises. Today’s one of those days – play Lomo and Duda and move on.
Mike Moustakas, 3B: $3,300 – As noted above, James Shields has some problems vs lefties. Moustakas is the second of the two power bats of interest here (Duda was the first, in case you skipped over that section, in which case, stop reading and go back) with a lofty .268 ISO vs righties last year. He’s going to get overlooked because Alex Bregman is at the same position for the exact same price, but Moose is in a pretty good spot in his own right, and given the likely bad White Sox bullpen, it’s an even better spot than at first glance.
Yasiel Puig, OF: $2,800 and Matt Kemp, OF: $2,100: During his young major league career, Ty Blach simply cannot get right-handed batters out (5.2% K-BB for his career). He also cannot get left-handed batters out (3.2% career K-BB), but against lefties, he does keep the ball in the park (57% GB rate). He doesn’t do that against righties (43% GB rate). So we have a pitcher who has a bad K-BB and a bad GB rate against righties. That’s a recipe for disaster (for Giants fans) and a recipe for DFS crushing (for us). Blach’s GB-rate against lefties removes Seager and Bellinger from consideration, and Chris Taylor’s price ($3,500) removes him from consideration, but we do have two prime Dodger targets in the outfield, both of whom are quite affordable. Yasiel Puig set career bests in walk rate (11.2%) and strikeout rate (17.5%). He also set his career high ISO with .224 and a career high in home runs. Basically, what I’m getting at is, Puig was very good last year but had some bad luck with a .274 BABIP. He also stole 15 bags. He should be a core part of the Dodgers team going forward and he’ll be at a much higher price point going forward. Even though Matt Kemp’s value has cratered the last few years, he’s still been an average or above average hitter with power. The last 3 years he’s actually had a 118 wRC+ vs lefties with a .217 ISO. Does that sound like a $2,100 hitter to you?
Jon Jay, OF: $2,000 – Is he as good as any of the outfielders recommended? No. Is he a stone-minimum player batting leadoff with platoon edge against a unimpressive pitcher (as evidenced by the Duda and Moustakas recommendations)? Yes. As I said countless times last year, sometimes you just gotta #respecttheleadoff. If you need salary relief, this is where you turn.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Atlanta could have some rain and cut the game short, and also some winds blowing in at 15 mph, which could make the game shorter and get the game in. Texas could have some gusts up to 25 mph blowing out to right center, which obviously helps the Astros hitters, who need all the help they can get to muscle one out of the park.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The o/u for Colorado/Arizona is still 9. The humidor won’t turn Chase Field into Marlins Park, but it’s going to suppress offense, and although both teams have good hitters, they also both have very top-heavy lineups that are weak at the bottom. This is an easy bet for me.
I think the Brewers are moderately underrated, and the Padres are moderately overrated, so it’s no surprise that I like the Brewers tomorrow at -115.
