Preseason I was telling anyone that would listen to draft Nick Markakis. I had him ranked as the 35th best outfielder in standard points leagues. While 37 is well outside the top ten, or even twenty, in twelve team leagues that start three outfielders he becomes a borderline starter. Most leagues will start four outfielders, moving Markakis squarely into a starting role. For those trying to figure out how I came to that conclusion, here’s the math. Twelve teams times four outfielders equals 48 outfielders, and the last I checked, 35 was less than 48. Even in ten team leagues with four OF spots Markakis lands a starting gig.
In standard points leagues Markakis currently has 69 points and is the 24th ranked outfielder. Either he is outperforming his projections or those projected ahead of him are falling short. Whichever it is, it doesn’t matter, he should not only be owned, but also starting. But guess what. Nick Markakis is owned in just under 50 percent of leagues and is being started in about 24 percent (based on CBS points leagues). Do you know why this baffles me? Markakis has 0.616 points per plate appearance. Randal Grichuk (0.541) is owned in 86 percent of leagues. Curtis Granderson (0.535) is owned in 93 percent of leagues. Brett Gardner (0.489) is owned in 84 percent of leagues. And Alex Gordon (0.297) is owned in 75 percent of leagues. Markakis is outperforming everyone of these players, just as I said he would before any of you drafted your teams. Did you listen? Markakis should be owned over everyone of those players. The interesting thing is that he has managed to score 69 points without a home run or a stolen base.
You know what goes great with a piece of cake? How about a tall glass of melk. Oh, did I say melk, I meant milk. While I’m discussing players that I was promoting preseason I’m going to have to bring up Melky Cabrera. Coming into the season I had him ranked as the 22nd outfielder. Scroll up to how I used math to demonstrate how Markakis was a starter. Now replace Markakis with Melky. With 66 points he is currently a top 30 OF. His PPPA is only 0.584, but my preseason projections projected him to a 0.567. Looks like he’s falling right into place. Despite these facts, Melky is owned in only about 61 percent of leagues and is being started in only 45. Shame on you points league players. This is why you are losing.
In years past the players being highlighted in this post would likely have been Denard Span and Ben Revere. These guys were the secret weapons in points leagues. Points without the big name. Easy to draft late and well outplays their ADP. Both of these players are still very valuable. The problem is that they are older now and have been dealing with injuries.
Revere is coming. He went on the DL after Opening Day with a strained right oblique, but his return is almost upon us. I expect Revere to push Michael Taylor to a backup role. In 104 plate appearances Taylor has 21 points (0.203 PPPA) with 3 home runs, 4 RBIs, 4 stolen bases and a .184 batting average. Last year Revere finished the season with approximately the same number of points (346) as Kris Bryant (355). And they both had practically identical PPPA scores. I expect approximately same this year. Bryant is owned in 100 percent of leagues and started in just about all of them.
Andrew McCutchen has had 127 plate appearances. Denard Span has had 126. McCutchen has 69 points and a PPPA of 0.552. Span has 68 points and a 0.557 PPPA. McCutchen was a consensus round two pick. Span’s average draft position was about 215. I’m not saying I’d own Span over McCutchen, no chance, but I think Span should be owned in more than 73 percent of leagues. With Span out for most of the 2015 season it’s hard to really compare the two, but if we look at PPPA, McCutchen (0.716) and Span (0.697) were pretty close. McCutchen is by far the superior player, but when healthy, Span is a guy that can help just about any points league team.
Keep an eye on Coco Crisp. He’s another player that would have found himself on this list in years past. At this point, however, I’m just not sure he will have the playing time to be a reliable help.
I think it’s time I gave Matt Kemp a proper shout out. So far he has 8 homers, 22 runs batted in and 86 points (0.781). Along with Ryan Braun he’s a top ten outfielder in most points leagues. It’s not 2011 is it?
Ignoring draft position, Anthony Rizzo (1.02), Nolan Arenado (1.01), Aledmys Diaz (1.00), Bryce Harper (0.97) and Jose Altuve (0.96) have been the most valuable hitters in standard points leagues. Four of those players were drafted very early. And lastly, I told everyone to draft David Ortiz as he his another player that always manages to deliver the points. With a PPPA of 0.875 and 92 points he finds himself in the top twenty for all hitters.
Happy birthday Emma.
