You know how when one girl isn't into you, you date another girl that is a slightly lesser version of the previous girl? With that in mind, as the World Series winds down, Joe Buck will be seen dating Dan Vogelbach. Late night, when no one is around, Joe Buck will still look at pictures of Kyle Schwarber, but Vogelbach is the only one that will call him back. Then you know Dan Vogelbach and Joe Buck are going to get into some huge blow out at the mall that is going to go like this, "You don't even love me! You love Kyle Schwarber!" Joe Buck will step against a wall, lowering his head, saying, "You're right. I can't lie anymore." Ugh, such heartbreak! So, should we be excited about Schwarber multiplied by 1/2? Mini Schwarber? Kyle Nickelback? There's talk Vogelbach can't play a position, but he's penciled in as the starting 1st baseman for the Mariners as of right now, so *raspberries lips* to having no position. He's always done nothing but hit for power in the minors: 23 HRs in Triple-A, while being somewhat of an Adam Dunn donkey-type. Power, no average and a high OBP. He hasn't yet earned the nickname Ridonkey, but I really want to give that name to someone, so show me something, Kyle Nickelback! Anyway, what can we expect from Dan Vogelbach for 2017 fantasy baseball?
Tom Murphy might be the first guy who can get a
rookie outlook post, a sleeper post and an overrated post. Allow me to explain. Got it? Sorry, after I said "Allow me to explain," I muttered the reasons to myself and forgot to write them down. As they say in Latin America, mea culpa. Allow me to explain while writing. He has under 130 ABs in the majors, so he qualifies for a rookie post. Easy peasy on that. A lot of people who play in leagues where their leaguemates only read Yahoo or ESPN are going to see huge sleeper value on Tom Murphy. I bet he's not drafted at all in some friends & family leagues or just drafted super late. ESPN and Yahoo will drop the ball on Tom Murphy. It's guaranteed. He's not the kind of guy they highlight. Could me saying this move the needle? Maybe in Yahoo, but no way in ESPN. Yahoo is a bit more seat-of-the-pantsy; I'm currently recalling Dee Gordon's rookie year when he was ranked in the top 50 overall at Yahoo even though he didn't have a starting job. ESPN, on the other hand, they're conservative to the point of boring. Carlos Beltran will be ranked ahead of Murphy. I will bet you major fake dollars on that. Now, why is Tom Murphy also going to be overrated in some leagues? Because Murphy's the type of player that fantasy baseballers (<-- my mom's term!) love to hype up so much they become overrated by the time some drafts come around. I.e., he'll start around 220 overall in drafts, inch up to 175, then to 150, then to 125, finally, in some leagues people will be drafting him around 75-100 by the end of March. This is obviously goofy, but there might be some value in him still at 150 overall, depending on how this next paragraph goes. (What a segue!) Anyway, what can we expect from Tom Murphy for 2017 fantasy baseball?
A week after writing up one of the worst farm system in baseball in the Diamondbacks, I've been blessed with the task of covering arguably the best farm system in the Atlanta Braves. Over the last few seasons the Braves have done an excellent job of acquiring top prospects in trades, and via the draft. This approach that has left them with an embarrassment of riches. It's not often you can trade an obvious over-performing pitcher for the top pick in a deep draft, and a handful of other good, young, and controllable assets. Fortunately for Braves fans, GM John Coppolella has very incriminating photos of Dave Stewart. Otherwise such outlandish trades like the Swanson and Toussiant deals wouldn't have been possible. Since then, the Braves have added one of the top International signings in recent memory in Kevin Maitan, and took in quite a haul in last June's draft. In other words, there is much to discuss in the Braves system. Instead of rambling for another 100 words about Disney magic, and how dumb Dave Stewart is, let's just dig into one of the more exciting farms.
I have a predilection for highlighting fantasy baseball rookies that are of the hitter variety, and less so of the pitching type. I will also say I don't 100% trust anyone that uses the word predilection in everyday conversation. They sound like they have a pedo-lection. Stretch a Home Depot slide ruler out 500 feet and talk to me from there. "What's that? Having a hard time hearing you. No, don't come within 500 feet of me. Thanks. Why? Because you used the word predilection." Pitchers are just so flaky. Last year, Michael Fulmer, with little-to-no fanfare, was a top 30 starter for all of fantasy as a rookie. If you predicted that, you're a liar or a time traveller. Mean's while, Giolito had a 6.75 ERA in 21 1/3 IP. How was Corey Kluber in the minors? How was Arrieta? The list goes on with pitchers that weren't great in the minors that broke out in the majors. Then on the opposite side of things, great pitching prospects who reached the career levels of Nadir Bupkis. In regards to this, there's actually a well-worn acronym by Baseball Prospectus that is TINSTAAPP, which is There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect. So, this is the 2nd year in a row I've gone to the Lucas Giolito well, well (stutterer!), he deserves it. Here's what I said last year, "Before watching the video on Lucas Giolito, I looked at his vitals. This is something I don’t usually do. Doesn’t really matter to me if a guy is six-foot-one or five-ten. But, dizzamn, Giolito is a strapping young man, huh? He’s listed at six-six and 230. He’s only 21 years old, but I think he’s done growing. Hopefully, cause his mom tells CBS Sports that his "feet already hang off the bed." With a six-six frame, as you can imagine, he throws fast. (Christall Young is the exception that proves the rule, which never made any sense to me. If it’s an exception, how does it prove anything? It proves that there’s exceptions, but that’s about it, right? I’m gonna move on before my brain hurts in my thought-nodes.) Giolito hits 97 MPH on his fastball, which is actually up a tick from the previous year. If he keeps steadily increasing his fastball every year, by the time he’s 40 years old, he’s going to be throwing 117 MPH. He throws from nearly right over the top, so the ball fires downhill and hitters have no chance of hitting it. A 9+ K/9 seems to be a given once he gets settled in the majors. In 20 years, Al Pacino could be playing the role of a Hall of Fame pitcher in the film, Giolito’s Way. Assuming Pacino has eighteen-inch stilettos." And that's me quoting me! Anyway, what can we expect from Lucas Giolito for 2017 fantasy baseball?
