The Diamondbacks have shipped out their most recent top picks, improving the MLB rotation but at the same time leaving the farm a little thin at the top. I would have definitely considered Dansby Swanson in the first tier, and Touki Toussaint would have been my top prospect among the more distant ETAs. What's done is done, and there are still some solid if not elite pieces in this system. The shine wore off of Archie Bradley and Braden Shipley a bit, but they are still strong options and should contribute to the rotation shortly. Meanwhile Brandon Drury and Peter O'Brien could have some value with their bats. Cuban import Yasmany Tomas made his much anticipated debut in 2015, and while the 25-year-old did hit nine homers, fantasy owners would like to see more of his raw pop surface in his sophomore season.
See all of today’s starting lineups
| # |
|
ATH | ATL | BAL | CHW | CIN | HOU | LAD | MIN | TB | TEX | TOR | WSH | ARI | BOS | CHC | CLE | COL | DET | KC | LAA | MIA | MIL | NYM | NYY | OAK | PHI | PIT | SD | SEA | SF | STL |
I look at all kinds of stats to find sleepers for next year. Brandon Belt was one name that came up on a lot of different searches through last year's numbers. No, smart guy, I wasn't searching "Players that have disappointed year after year." Belt had the ninth best for Hard Contact Percentage. Like a bar stool, that's right behind Miguel Cabrera. It's not surprising that Belt was top ten for the majors last year. Belt hit nearly 40% of all balls hard. (Belt hitting balls hard gives me flashbacks to being bent over my grandmother's lap.) The top guy in the majors for Hard Contact was J.D. Martinez at 42.3%, and the difference between Belt and the top guy overall was about the same as the difference between Belt and AL MVP, Josh Donaldson (37.1%). Guys that Belt hit the ball harder than is a who's who -- Kris Bryant, McCutchen, Votto, Braun, Yoenis, A-Gon, etc. etc. etc. Another stat where Belt popped up on -- actually bad choice of words -- was Infield Fly Balls percentage. Belt had an 0.8% Infield Fly Ball rate, which was 2nd in the league after Christian Yelich, who didn't pop up once. Not popping up means you're hitting the ball solid. Speaking of hitting the ball solid, guess who led the league in Line Drive Percentage. I'll give you one guess, his name rhymes with Random Melt. It's Brandon Belt, you dope! For guys who made the weakest contact overall, it's no surprise that Belt is in the bottom ten, right in front of Mike Trout. For just about every stat for a hitter making solid contact, Brandon Belt places. For the stats that matter for fantasy (HRs/SBs), I'm going to give you two players and one is Belt. 18 HRs/7 SBs vs. 18 HRs/9 SBs. Like Michael Hutchence, Belt is on the latter. Eric Hosmer is the first one. Intrigued yet? I bet you are, you rabid horny fantasy sleeper monger. Anyway, what can we expect from Brandon Belt for 2016 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Javier Baez takes another shoveling of dirt as he gets buried further. "Is this a staged Off Broadway adaption of The Revenant?" Javier asks as he spits dirt out of his mouth. "You have a toothpick? I have dirt stuck between my teeth. Hello?" Baez doesn't know why this shadowy figure won't stop shoveling dirt on top of his body; he's obviously not dead. Or is he? Just then, the camera swings around, and, in a crazy twist that only M. Night Shamalamadingdong could've came up with, the person that is doing the shoveling is Arismendy Alcantara. "If I can't have fantasy value, then never can you!" Arismendy yells as he cackles maniacally. Then, "You still want that toothpick?" And...scene! So, Jason Heyward signs with the Cubs and moves Arismendy and Baez even further down the depth charts. At this point, they are closer to playing on the Padres after a trade than they are at playing in Chicago. Heyward had sneaky value last year, as in it seemed like he disappointed, but since steals are scarce (only seven players last year stole 30 bags), and since Heyward provided some value in all categories, he wasn't that bad. His numbers last year seemed like a poor man's Lorenzo Cain. I will call him Crack Cocaine. Moving to the stacked Cubs lineup and into Wrigley could provide Heyward's best season to date. I'll give him the projections of 87/22/77/.274/15, which has him hitting leadoff for about 80 games and shuffling between 2nd, 3rd and 5th in the other games. Anyway, here's what else I saw this offseason in 2016 fantasy baseball:
Even after the trade of Manuel Margot to the Padres, the Red Sox still feature three prospects with big fantasy potential - Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers, and 2015 draftee Andrew Benintendi. Cuban import Rusney Castillo was an adventure last year, and I'd imagine dynasty leaguers are faced with a choice between selling low or holding this offseason. Jackie Bradley is another question mark, but showed flashes and is still just 25 years old entering 2016. At the very least, his plus defense should give him a long leash. Blake Swihart graduated, and has a fantasy-friendly profile behind the plate thanks to his offense. Eduardo Rodriguez and Henry Owens made their debuts as well, and should be solid options in the middle of the rotation. In short, there's still plenty of upside on the major league club and a top-heavy farm ready to feed it over the next two or three years.
You know what I keep finding? No, not lint in body areas that I need Google to identify. Though, I do feel bad for the guy that keeps asking on Yahoo! Answers, "How do you stop lint from accumulating in your philtrum?" What I keep finding is sleepers that really weren't that bad last year. Let's throw out runs and RBIs, because those are a product of lineup placement and team offense, and let's look at the all important HRs, batting average and SBs. One guy had 16 HRs, 6 SBs and a .261 average; another guy had 21 HRs, 2 SBs and .287 average. One guy is 33 years old; one guy is 21 years old. One guy is obviously Rougned Odor and one guy is Robinson Cano. For those that just skim think pieces and daydream during the offseason, I'm gonna give you the most succinct knowledge you will find outside of "Don't sleep with a girl who has a blister on her lip and scratches herself in public." That knowledge: 33 years old is on the wrong side of a hitter's bell curve for production, and 21 years old is on the right side. If you have an X-axis labeled "Age," and a Y-axis labeled "Production," Odor's going up and Cano's going down. I.e., in 2016, I'd want Odor over Cano. Now, even a jury member that found Robert Durst innocent can tell you Cano will be drafted before Odor in all leagues, so I think we've found some value. Anyway, what can we expect from Rougned Odor for 2016 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Uh no, the Yankees fell for the oldest trick in the book, mon! Starlin Castro was traded to the Yankees for middle reliever, Adam Warren. Didn't the Yanks get the memo? Middle relievers are the new cheap starters. There was an interesting development the past week. Jordan Zimmermann got ridunk money and everyone was like, "Damn, Cousin Fat Pockets needs to let out the elastic on his velcro wallet." Then David Price got boku bucks and a Nigerian from Nigeria by the name of Boku said, "My last name is not bucks, I'm confused by this idiom." Then Zack Greinke went for a walk in the park and came across a suitcase of $206.5 million and looked over his shoulder slowly, then looked back at the suitcase, then started putting million dollar bills into his shorts. Finally, Henderson Alvarez was non-tendered and the entire league was interested, and this sounded warning bells. People are interested in Henderson Alvarez?! What the eff! At that point, the smarter GMs realized they just need to make it so their starters that aren't terrific go six innings, then their bullpens can come in. The Royals realized this two years ago, but now everyone is catching on. As for Castro on the Yankees, I want to say unequivocally that this is the best landing spot for him in the majors outside of Coors. Castro has totally failed as a top prospect-- Oh, wait, he's only 25 years old. This was a case where the Cubs didn't make a bad deal; they just had too much of a good thing with middle infielders, and their eyes set on Messin' Wit' The Zo'. Castro feels set up to have his biggest season to date, and I'm going to project him as such. For 2016, I'll give him 72/16/77/.274/7 with room for more. As for the future at 2nd base in Robert Refsnyder, there's always playing for the Padres in two years. Anyway, here's what else I saw this offseason for 2016 fantasy baseball:
We'll step away from the
minor league previews for a sec and take a look at some of the new additions to the player pool for dynasty leaguers. This is assuming, of course, that your league doesn't allow them to be picked up in season and they're already gone. Dynasty first-year player drafts are always fun. It's the best way to inject your team with some new life outside of negotiating trades or getting lucky on the wire. In super deep leagues, this top 25 will just be a taste of the first round, but in most formats 25 names should get your feet wet in the second round as well. It's important to realize that with all prospects there's a bunch of risk involved. That's even more of a factor in this type of list, since there just hasn't been as much exposure to these prospects yet. Last, but not least, this list is tweaked to help your fantasy squad, and won't necessarily follow the same path as traditional prospect lists or draft boards. It also has some of my personal fantasy philosophy built into it, so don't get too upset if your favorite prep arm isn't as high as you'd like him to be. Without any more rambling, here are the top 25 dynasty league signees for 2016 fantasy baseball...
Domingo Santana really should go by the name, Sunday Santana. How badass does that sound? It kinda sounds like a gangbanger's little sister. "Hey, esse, you watch my hermana, Sunday Santana, while I go bang this gang?" That is totally what a gangbanger says. Crazy that I never heard back from Shawn Ryan on premaking The Shield with the hot-headed, plays-by-his-own-rules, high school crossing guard, Vic Mackey, in the 1980s. "It's like The Goldbergs meets The Shield. Mr. Ryan, are you still there?" That's me prank calling the creator of The Shield. Whatever you call Domingo Santana, one thing is for sure, you're gonna be calling him a bonafide 2016 fantasy baseball sleeper (take that SEO, Bleacher Report!) Is it me or when you read the word "bonafide" you want to slap on some suspenders and go to a barber shop? It's like the word bonafide should only be said by Coen brothers' characters. Okay, Cousin Sweatpants, you know I love me some Domingo Santana if you've only been reading this site for a few, but let's embark on the Why. Anyway, what can we expect of Domingo Santana and what makes him a 2016 fantasy baseball sleeper?
You know, this signing of Zack Greinke with the Diamondbacks isn't much of a surprise since Greinke is so intellectually driven and Phoenix is on the cutting edge of cyber-learning. Did you know 1 out of 24 graduates from the University of Phoenix go on to make six figures? Of course, 1 out of 24 graduates from the University of Phoenix are chosen to be in their commercials and paid $100,000. That gives me an idea, we should start a college and charge students $200,000 for a 4-year degree, then hire every graduate for $24,000/year. Shoot, every college and company are already working this scheme. Any hoo! Zack Greinke goes to the Diamondbacks and takes a hit in his value or will take multiple hits on his value. Don't think the Dodgers are really that much better offensively than the D-Backs. Actually, they're worse. So, it's not a hit due to chance for wins. It's a hit due to home stadium change. Arizona's decidedly a hitters' park and the Casa de Doyers is not. Arizona is around top five for hitting, whereas Dodger Stadium is around bottom five. Things sway yearly, but Chase Field has had years in the top two for offense, only sniffing Coors' butt. Mean's while, Dodger Stadium has had years in the bottom three for all offense, only staying in front of Safeco and Petco. I doubt Greinke falls back to a 4+ ERA pitcher he was his last year on the Royals, but he was a 3.83 ERA pitcher in another hitting-friendly park in Milwaukee, and that's not so good. Oh, and Greinke is 32 years old. Yeah, you don't need a degree from the University of Phoenix to know this deal could go sideways real fast. For 2016, I'll give him the projections of 15-8/3.54/1.16/194 in 210 IP and someone I am not going near. Anyway, here's what else I saw in the offseason for 2016 fantasy baseball:
Seattle's farm produced two interesting players for the 2016 fantasy baseball season. I like Ketel Marte as a late-round flyer at a shallow middle infield position. He can hit and steal, and should be a good source of runs if he bats in front of Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz as he's currently projected. Then there's Carson Smith, who I imagine a lot of fantasy owners will be drafting as the closer in waiting if he hasn't already taken the reins by opening day. The first thing I noticed when putting together this preview is the plethora of outfield prospects in the Mariners' system, as well as the lack of impact talent from the 2015 draft (they didn't pick in the first round). It's a bit dicey gambling on hitters that may call Seattle their home one day, so this has never been my go-to system for fantasy prospects. Of course the flip side of that is that their pitching prospects have a little more room to breathe.
Robert Stephenson reminds me of another some-time-ago Reds prospect, Edinson Volquez. Nasty stuff that some people thought could turn into a number two starter. Unfortunately, for a while, Edinson was just a number two, but not as in a starter. Then Ray Searage happened. The Pirates pitching coach fixed Edinson like Chris Martin fixed Gwyneth or like Bill Cosby fixed your mom's drink in the late 70s, essentially helping Edinson harness his control. Edinson maxes out at 98 MPH, and Stephenson goes above that, touching 100 MPH on occasion. Everything else looks to be similar. Stephenson has no control, and the videos of him give me the impression that he's still a thrower, not a pitcher. It's God's cruel joke that guys that throw fast can never command their pitches. Or Vishnu's cruel joke if you're reading in India. Or General Tso if you're reading in China. Or Ben Carson if you're a once-conjoined twin reading this in a church. If Stephenson wasn't ready for a starting rotation job out of this spring and able to have a 9+ K/9, we wouldn't be here talking about him, but we are here and we are talking about him. Anyway, what can we expect of Robert Stephenson for 2016 fantasy baseball?
The Red Sox signed
David Price to a seven-year deal for $217 million.
MFW I heard. I get that half goes to the government, and ten percent goes to his lawyer, and ten percent goes to his agent, and ten percent goes to his business manager, and ten percent goes to his accountant, and ten percent goes to the guy in his business manager's office that is pretending to be his business manager and moving money straight to a bank account in Turks and Caicos without anyone knowing, but $217 million is ludicrous. The Ghost of Curt Flood says, "Ya'll abusing the crack baby out free agency." The 'crack baby' modifier is popular amongst ghosts. The Ghost of Marion Barry started it. This contract makes me long for the days of collusion. This doesn't even take into account how stupid it is from the Red Sox perspective, and I don't mean just due to Price's unstellar (Made Up Word of the Day!) playoff history. There will never be a contract where this much money ever makes sense. Look at your World Champion Royals, they don't have one guy making more than ten million. Look at the past handful of huge contracts, have any of them looked good in hindsight? By the third year, this will look as egregious as the contracts given to Sabathia, A-Rod, Cano, Ryan Howard...Okay, nothing will look as bad as Ryan Howard's. It's not like contracts are secret either. It's not as if the Red Sox are sitting there scratching their heads wondering how much the Royals are paying Hosmer. Big contracts get you nowhere! I said that last sentence while pounding my fist on a lectern as a few kids dozed in the front row. As for Price, he'll turn 31 years old during the 2016 season, which is not exactly when pitchers get better, but he looks like he could stave off decline for a year or two. Last year, his fastball velocity went up from 2014, his K-rate was above his career average and his walk rate was within sneezing distance of his career mark. He was a tad lucky on homers, LOB% and BABIP, but he appears to be 2.70-3.20 ERA pitcher with neutral luck. Of course, I wouldn't draft him since I don't buy number one fantasy aces, but I doubt Fenway or the AL East really hurt him that much. At least not until the third year of his deal when there will be 217 million reasons why the Red Sox want to unload him. For 2016, I'll give him the projections of 17-7/3.03/1.10/225 in 220 IP. Anyway, here's what else I saw this offseason for 2016 fantasy baseball:
