Pitcher Profiles are almost back baby! Oh man, I haven’t been this excited for pitchers to return ever since all the crap I got for saying Ryan Dempster was a sleeper last year. Of course, no one remembers Matt Harvey was my #1 sleeper (audio proof!), and then Grey even forgets which old bad pitcher I lumped in my sleepers saying it was Josh Beckett! Ugh. Being such a bully around the office. Punk me for the rest of those picks! Yikes.
So what’s the deal with Pitcher Profiles going to be this year you ask? Well the oldies but goldies of pitch-by-pitch breakdowns with my personal Gamescore+ stat that I developed to better numerically represent a starter’s outing. But brand new this year! I’m going to incorporate a few GIFs of pitches throughout the start, and the big tamale – weekly top-100 SP ranks. Needless to say, Pitcher Profiles are going to become your all-in-one SP hub throughout the season every Monday afternoon. The first will come on April 7th, so if you have requests for pitchers starting over the first weekend of the season, I always welcome suggestions for who we break down! Below are my SP ranks heading into the season, and we’ll see you here in a few Mondays!
Oh, and PS – to hopefully redeem myself from the travesty that was last year’s sleeper picks, my top-5 sleepers this year are Michael Wacha, Jeff Samardzija, Yordano Ventura, Rick Porcello, and Corey Kluber.
JB’s Top 100 SP
(rankings based on 12-team Roto)
| RANK | SP, TEAM | NOTE |
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers | Really not much to say here. |
| 2 | Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers | I think this one is a shoe-in as well. Probably leads the majors in Ks, was awesome last year, no reason to think that will change. |
| 3 | Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals | So underrated for some reason this year. I know you can’t really count 2011 since it was only 5 starts, but check this out: LD rate 26.2%, 22.7%, 17.5% to GB rate 37.7%, 44.2%, 51.5%. Pretty schweet. He’s only 25, and if he had gone 220 innings, I don’t think this would be a questioned ranking. I think his injuries were a little fluky and he stays healthy this year for a monster season. |
| 4 | Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals | Am I little worried about all the innings from last year + playoffs? Yeah, a little. But not worried enough to rank him any lower. |
| 5 | Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners | Always a top-tier elite guy. |
| 6 | Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies | Like F-Her, the adverb is safe. Reliable. I would F-Her cliffly, if that was possible… The velocity was down a MPH from 12 to 13 on the fastball, but even at 90.7 is faster than his 2008 Indians breakout and his cutter is the same velocity. Which is his bread and butter anyway. Think he’ll be a rock for you again. Solid as A Rock! |
| 7 | Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants | I like it in my Bumgarner. Great park, coming into his own, I really think he contend for the NL Cy this year. |
| 8 | Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox | Sale I’ll definitely reach for. “Oh my God! We’re having a fire! Sale.” Great division to pitch in when not against DET, who he’s actually solid against (1.83 ERA 1.04 WHIP in 5 starts last year). I think he’s extraordinarily safe, and if he can cut the HR rate down (12.5%), which may be tough in CHI, he could dominate. |
| 9 | Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers | “JB, you hate Scherzer!” Yup. Won’t end up on any of my teams. BABIP from .314, .333, to .259 from 11-13, and that BABIP includes terrible fielding from Miggy and Peralta. I think the BABIP normalizes somewhere in the middle there. His HR rate dropped over 4% from career average, and I just don’t buy a guy who didn’t make a big stride in BB rate to have his WHIP go from 1.27 to 0.97. Is he going to have another good year? Sure. But I don’t think top 5 at all. Nice Ks, but I think ERA over 3.20 and WHIP around 1.15 will lower him. |
| 10 | Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins | Huge rookie season, I see maybe a tiny bit of regression, but also a lot more innings and Ks. Love the park too. |
| 11 | Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers | I’m not as big into the principle of “tiers”, but man, for me, SP has a huge dropoff after Fernandez. If you’re a Verlander believer he’ll probably go with some of the elite guys, but I don’t think he’s 2012 – a little more 2013. The unlucky BABIP should go back down, but higher BB rate, a HR rate that actually went down last year (that I think goes back up a percent or two), but all that said he’s still going to deliver a lot of Ks and Ws and I have him with a solid rank. |
| 12 | Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers | I’ve never really been a huge Sanchez guy, shoulder issues are a big part of it (and wrote that before this recent flare up), but before his 182 IP last year was at 195+ the three years prior. All his numbers look fine, maybe the 5.8% HR/FB rate goes back up, but no reason he can’t repeat what he did last year and if he makes every start will be a top 10 pitcher. |
| 13 | Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves | Love Teheran this year, would maybe like to see a few more ground balls, but in that park it doesn’t matter too much. |
| 14 | Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals | Dig the Ks, you’ll have to work around a slightly higher WHIP than most of the top-20 guys, but doable. |
| 15 | Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers | I think the calf strain is making him a tad of a value, and while I’m not necessarily the biggest Greinke fan, had a huge year last year pre and post broken collarbone and excelled in that park. |
| 16 | Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds | You know, I came into these ranks thinking I was gonna dog Homer Bailey because I hate his inconsistency. Turns out, he’s really only inconsistent game-to-game, but year-to-year has been fantastic. I know I’m not breaking any ground there, but there’s nothing in his numbers I can use to support having him any lower. |
| 17 | James Shields, Kansas City Royals | Shields is kinda a boring pick, and not someone anyone will say much about, but I like him and he seems to be a littler underrated. Great park, the Ks went down a tad and the walks up, but the velocity is good, had one really bad game hurt his ERA/WHIP and I think can pitch with a smidge of contract year motivation. |
| 18 | Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees | I’m buying in. Not going to reach too hard, but I like everything I’ve seen and think he’s a solid SP 2. |
| 19 | Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals | Man, I’m not even a Cardinals fan! Hate the Cards! But love their young pitchers and buying into Wacha. Reportedly not under an innings limit, great stuff last year – obviously the postseason was huge – like him a lot. |
| 20 | Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals | The story is the same every year: good stuff, good ERA and WHIP, bad Ks. May be a tad overrvalued with the 19 wins, but should be relatively close to that again. |
| 21 | Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants | A terrible first half for Cain had people running to the hills as his career-long low HR/FB rate disappeared. Of the 23 HRs he gave up, 9 were in three games with three each @MIL, @COL and @ARI. Rough days at the small stadiums can do that. The rest of his numbers were fine with an unlucky LOB%. Looks great in Spring as well. |
| 22 | Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals | Vastly underrated heading into the season. I know he fell apart a bit late with a K rate that went way down, but it was a big innings hike and the 2nd half wasn’t all that bad. I see him being fine and a good draft day value. |
| 23 | Mat Latos, Cincinnati Reds | Latos is interesting because I’ve never been a fan, but actually wanted to rank him higher. I am a little worried about two surgeries in the offseason, and while he may not really miss much time, I’m worried about him wearing down. The WHIPs are always a tad high, did have a great season given career high .299 BABIP, but 6.9% HR/FB rate? In Cincy? Nahhh, probably not drafting Latos in most leagues. |
| 24 | Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves | I really, really wanted to have Minor in my top-20, but a little worried with these shoulder issues. Likely to miss a little time. He was a little hurt earlier in his career and player through it, to the detriment of his numbers. I won’t pass on him, but not reaching either. |
| 25 | David Price, Tampa Bay Rays | Yeah, not a huge Price fan. I used to be! But injuries hurt his K rate last year and he became a control pitcher lowering his walks. Given how bad he started he turned in a really good season, but a guy I think I’m avoiding. |
| 26 | Jeff Samardzija, Chicago Cubs | Whoa, wait what?! I think you meant 62 not 26… This is my first way off the reservation rank (at least I think….). So last year, Shark started awesome then fell apart late. Reason? Very poor managing from Dale Sveum (an offensive minded manager), who tried to extend Samardzija way too late in games to protect the awful bullpen. If you check out my pitcher profile on him last year, there was really no reason to keep him in after 100+ pitches. Shark has had huge innings hikes the last three seasons, and while he’s thrown a lot of innings from 2007-13, remember he was playing football and not racking up the innings on that arm until his professional career. So I think he’s still coming into his prime. I see the Cubs correcting his usage as well as a guy now with the experience to better handle the big innings. 2013 BABIP was .314, LOB was 71.7% – both unluckyish – GB rate has gone up nearly 10% the past 3 seasons, really unlucky 13+% home run rate last year given he’s at Wrigley, the velocity wasn’t really down and I think the very marginal 0.5 MPH dip on the heater can be more attributed to slow pitches late in games since they extended him too much (you can just scroll to the 7th innings of the link to see what I’m talking about). He’s got everything to play for to get a huge contract, which I normally don’t buy too much in, but there’s a tad of bad blood given his harsh words when they traded Scott Feldman and didn’t get a deal done in the off-season. Everything pointing to a huge breakout and immense value. Wow, diatribe alert! Moving on. |
| 27 | Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates | Huge power stuff, I like that his K rate went up as the season went on, but like a few of the other young Cardinals guys better. I think he’s going to be really good, but not reaching yet this year. |
| 28 | Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays | As much as I want to be with Grey’s Cobb, and I’ve gone after his cobb numerous times, I just can’t rank him any higher. A lot of underlying numbers I don’t like from last year, a BABIP of .279 – lower than virtually any stint he’s had in his career – and a LOB% of an unreal 81.4%. He was a little unlucky with his HR rate given he pitches in the Trop, but his K/9 got a huge boost from that crazy 13 K game against the Padres in 4.2 innings. Take that out and he goes from 8.41 K/9 to 7.85. Of course they all count, but that was a fluky game against an atrocious offense and I don’t know if the Ks are really there. I’m cheering for the guy though! |
| 29 | Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners | The latest news on Hisashi my dashi is he’ll be back late April. And it’s only his finger that’s hurt, probably from flicking off Grey for that nickname! Was awesome last year, I think can be awesome again. And if he is, he’ll be a great value. |
| 30 | Tony Cingrani, Cincinnati Reds | I’ve seen Cingrani put a lot higher, also a good amount lower… Grey and I are about even. I agree with Grey on the shallow innings, but buying Cingrani has made big strides on new pitches. Obviously no fan of the park, but huge upside. |
| 31 | Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians | I like Salazar’s park! And like Salazar! These last two are a coin flip, so I’ll go with the guy who has pitched a little more in the Majors. Both crushed the Minors, both look locked for nice seasons. |
| 32 | Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies | All of the bullpen sessions recovering from his shoulder tendinitis have gone well, but who knows how long he’ll be out. I don’t like to take pitchers with bad elbows or shoulders, but if he only misses a month and is his normal Cole Hamels self, this would be a pretty good value. |
| 33 | Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox | I’m not really a big Buchholz fan, but even if he isn’t as good as he was last year, it’s worth the pick at this point. Was one of, if not the, best pitcher in baseball for a stretch there until an injury sustained from holding his baby. Solution – sign it up for adoption. “Whoa JB!” Worth the gamble. |
| 34 | Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds | And that’s why I have Cueto here too. Both guys can be awesome but can’t stay healthy. Buchholz was better last year, so he gets the nod. |
| 35 | Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians | Oh man, it’s 2013 all over again! If you read the profiles – or interacted with me in comments – you know Kluber is my boy. I just love his stuff. It’s nasty. Which is kinda weird since he’s such a late bloomer. But despite bad ERAs through the Minors he was always a Ks guy. The big change was bringing together the control and addition of the cutter. What’s crazy about his 3.85/1.26 last year was a .329 BABIP! Now, he’s always had a bad BABIP, but if it goes closer to .300 plus pitches the whole season, oh man, going to kill for this price. |
| 36 | Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics | Gray is lumped together with a lot of the other young guns, but he’s a tad lower for me. I am a little skeptical of a K rate that took a huge jump from AA in 2012 to AAA/Majors last year and the WHIP I think will be higher than most project. .276 BABIP last year is a little lucky and I dunno, fastball/curve only pitchers sometimes scare me. I’m willing to pass on draft day unless he’s down here. |
| 37 | Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals | My bar none, #1 sleeper this year. What’s kinda annoying is he was the first baseball player I wanted to talk about months ago on my Spadora on Sports radio show spot, and now the hype is starting to catch up. I hyped him up to my league mates as well in my long-time dynasty league where I snagged him a while ago. And then Grey’s lead article this morning just “happens” to come when my rankings come out. And I started these last week! Absolutely love this kid. Danny Duffy looked awful in Spring giving Ventura the 5th pitcher spot. They’ve come out and said he could get 200 innings, which would be prespoteroni and 200 Ks in my mind. We all know about his speed, can hit trip-digs often, but I love his breaking stuff. I watched all his starts last year, and kinda went gaga for gogo puffs. I watched him against the Rangers a couple days ago in Spring Training, and he was baffling. Both his cutter and curveball are absolutely nasty, and he also has a change. Great park to pitch in, and stuff is stuff, no matter how small he is. Draft Ventura in all leagues. |
| 38 | Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres | With Cashner, it all comes down to how much you believe the Ks will come back. Was racking em up heavy to end last year with exactly 7 in his last 5 starts as he dominated in August and September. I originally had him lower, but I’m buying the Ks coming up and he’s carried over the hot finish to 2013 with a nice Spring. Going to target him pretty hard in remaining drafts. |
| 39 | Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers | Wherever there’s a Kluber, there’s a Porcello! My two guys from last year I picked in comments all season. What’s crazy is I only have him one spot ahead of Grey! Who used to hate Porcello! So last year was a horrible start then a solid finish. K rate was an obvious big hop, BB rate stayed low, good starts there. GB% at a league leading 55.3% and on a team with a terrible SS and 3B now with a vastly improved defensive infield. His HR% last year was a crazy 14.1% given the park and was 9.9%, 9.9%, 11.5% the previous three seasons. Then the inclusion of the curveball last year that he used 16.5% helped vary up his arsenal to 4 big-use pitches, and when someone hops up a K rate, I love when you can see a big arsenal change. Still only 25, locked in a rotation for a really good team, and pitches in a great division with horrible opposing offenses. |
| 40 | Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays | Not touching Moore this year. Sure the upside is there, but a BB rate that has gone up tremendously the past three years, K rate going down, a declining velocity, and last year he had a 1.30 WHIP with an absolutely crazy .259 BABIP. The 17 wins were so fluky that I think he could’ve won a game or two on the DL. Wait, that doesn’t make any sense. Off to a rough Spring start with 11 BB to 10 K, which yeah I don’t care much about, but isn’t helping. |
| 41 | Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates | I mean, I dunno, nothing in his stats suggests anything was that lucky/unlucky, but it’s Francisco effing Liriano. How often have we done this song and dance? Just barely didn’t crack my top-40, which I was actually surprised since I didn’t think he’d even make my top-50 coming in, but would have to take him here. Grey has him 20. In Grey I trust! Except here. Someone else can take the risk. |
| 42 | Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees | Safe, boring, I think the 11 wins last year was fluky-bad. |
| 43 | Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians | Just so many Ks! And I thought he was older… Only 28, which isn’t a spring chicken but also isn’t a… fall chicken? Winter chicken? |
| 44 | Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers | I think Ryu is going to regress this year. But only a little. I like the rest of his stats, seeing the regression hit the ERA, but Wins, Ks, and WHIP look about right. |
| 45 | Zach Wheeler, New York Mets | It’s all about the walks. So far this Spring, 8:2 K:BB. Plus to end last year, had 1 or fewer walks in five of his last eight starts. Of course he walked 6 in his last start, but whatever! Great K upside, great park, WHIP risk. |
| 46 | Ervin Santana, Atlanta Braves | All signs are pointing to him being able to hop in the rotation right away, and in a great pitcher’s park, Santana can hopefully keep it in the park. He’s had some atrocious HR/FB rates, but I trust the Atlanta brass can keep him productive – he pitches a lot of innings, and gets decent enough Ks. I really like him there in Hotlanta. |
| 47 | Matt Garza, Milwaukee Brewers | Homer alert! Wait, no, not Garza giving up another homer, but the fact I like him. Everyone seems to hate him. Close to a K per and always an ERA under 4. Health concerns will always be there, but this late, I’m taking him. |
| 48 | Chris Archer, Tamp Bay Rays | I like Archer, but I’ve seen him go too high at times. Similar to Wheeler, the hesitation is with the WHIP. His WHIP in virtually all stints in the Minors was above the 1.13 we saw in 128.2 Major league innings last year. Had a really fortunate .253 BABIP and 78.8% LOB, but even with a little regression, lots of K upside on a team that knows how to build pitchers. |
| 49 | Drew Smyly, Detroit Tigers | Really liking Smyly this year, but not going to explicitly reach to get him. When you see what he did out of the bullpen last year, it’s eye-popping numbers. But don’t forget he’s a lefty and was used in a lot of lefty-lefty situations, giving him 129 lefties faced last year to 174 righties. You’re not going to have that close a ratio as a starter. Compare it to 127 to 289 the previous season as predominately a starter. But still think he’s going to be pretty good. |
| 50 | Alex Wood, Atlanta Braves | Owned through the Minors, owned last year, think he’s going to be very very good. Had an unlucky .333 BABIP in 77.2 ML innings, countered with a great 5.1 HR/FB%. No reason to think he can’t be solid for a good while. |
| 51 | Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals | I’ve just never been a big Lynn fan, but I’d have to take him if he fell this far down. Great K numbers that should stay strong, but he’s a WHIP killer. I’m hesitant with a BB rate that marginally went up, along with a very fortunate 7.4 HR/FB rate. |
| 52 | Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks | I had uber-prospect Bradley higher, and still want him higher, but the question of when he’ll join the rotation knocked him out of my top-40 (I initially thought with Corbin knocked out, Bradley would have to start in the rotation, but looks like they’re not going that way). Regardless, I think he pitches most of the year with the big league squad given Corbin’s injury and Bronson Arroyo being so old and we all know the upside he has. |
| 53 | Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics | He looked really good last year. Both in numbers, at the eye level, velocity readings, everything. A sore triceps right now is a tad scary, but I’m with the masses that I’m worried it could all just fall apart. Risk/reward pick. |
| 54 | Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels | Weaver is one of my favorite pitchers. Since I’ve liked him so much through the years, I’ve watched a ton of his starts and from that, I know I’m not touching him. Listen, you don’t “need” velocity, but Dream Weaver needs a tad to be the fantasy pitcher he once was. The Ks just aren’t there, the breaking stuff isn’t as explosive, and since he’s not striking guys out with slower stuff, he’s going to get dink and dunked to all hell out there and have a 1.30ish WHIP. Let someone else overpay. |
| 55 | CC Sabathia, New York Yankees | I don’t care about weight. It’s whatever. What I do care about is he had a jacked up elbow and barely was able to start the season in 2013, and is coming in elbow-healthier this year. That said, not going to reach. While he’s looking great this Spring, we all know the risks of taking old pitchers. |
| 56 | R.A. Dickey, Toronto Blue Jays | More old pitchers! A lot of people have ranked Dickey much more favorably, but while he turned his 2nd half around last year, the disappearance of Ks is just too significant. Had 177 last year which looks good, but since in 224.2 IP, it dropped his K/9 from 8.86 to 7.09 from the Cy year to last. Someone else can ride the Dickey. |
| 57 | Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres | I keep flip flopping on Ross. The game is becoming more and more velocity based and Ross certainly has a ton of that. 94.2 average fastball velocity in 2013, but is pretty much a two-pitch guy with the slider. Love the ball park, I like the upside, given this rank will probably end up on a fair amount of my teams. |
| 58 | Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles | I don’t know what it is about Tillman, but he always scares me. And the numbers actually support it. Ridiculous .221 BABIP in the 2012 breakout, and still fortunate .269 last year. The K rate jumped up last year which is nice, but 80.5% LOB is pretty lucky. Velocity down a tick, tough division and ballpark, not going any higher. |
| 59 | Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox | Yeah Lester just isn’t interesting to me. Same high WHIP concerns and having an 8.3 HR/FB rate in Fenway like he had last year isn’t sustainable. |
| 60 | Josh Johnson, San Diego Padres | So this is a big upside flyer option, and I’m a little interested. The velocity still looks good and now brings his upside to Petco. Really unlucky .356 BABIP and unreal 18.5 HR/FB rate in Toronto, a problem he’s never really had before. His xFIP was actually 3.58 to a 6.20 ERA! So the ball should stay in the park a bit better and overall he should have some better luck, but you can’t discount the injury history. |
| 61 | C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels | As I look at my rankings, I may have Wilson too low, but I’ve never been a big fan. Too high a WHIP and his GB% took a nose dive to 44.4% off a career 49.4%. Now, he does pitch in a pitcher’s park, but if his 7.2% HR/FB that we saw last year creeps back to 10, that’s a % hike to apply on a lot of fly balls. |
| 62 | Marco Estrada, Milwaukee Brewers | A lot of people love Estrada this year, and I hope they’re right. Because I’m not quite as bullish. After a rough start, ended last year with great numbers. But .262 BABIP and he’s a a fly ball pitcher in homer friendly Miller Park. And that’s important because his home/road splits last year were glaring. 6.62 1.49 ERA WHIP at home to 2.09 0.81 on the road. 9 home starts to 12 away. Flip flop those to 12 starts at home and 9 on the road and no one is talking about Estrada. Maybe you can bench him at home here and there, but I wouldn’t want a bigger investment on a guy I have to do that with. |
| 63 | Dillon Gee, New York Mets | Turned in an underrated 2013 and had some really strong stretches. Need to see a few more Ks, but barely walks anyone and love the park. Some sleeper potential. |
| 64 | Doug Fister, Washington Nationals | Nope, nope, nope. Not getting Fister in any leagues at current prices. The elbow issues suck, and his numbers last year were ridiculous. Falling K rate, extremely fortunate HR/FB% and terrible WHIP. What’s crazy (and I know you can’t play revisionist history), is if you take out a crazy game vs. PIT where they were hacking awfully at everything and he struck out 12 in 7 innings, his K/9 falls from 6.86 to 6.56, which isn’t good at all. I know you can argue the move to the NL is going to magically make him awesome, but I watched a stretch of Fister starts last year and wasn’t impressed at all. I’m avoiding. |
| 65 | Jake Peavy, Boston Red Sox | Has pitched well when healthy the past two years, but I dunno how healthy he can be. Got hurt with a cut finger and I think had a surgery this offseason, and I’m just not going to pay for it. |
| 66 | Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners | The shoulder injury contributes to my hesitation to put Walker with the other high-upside younguns, but to be honest, when I watched one of his starts last year I just wasn’t blown away. Big velocity and nice park, but the bum shoulder and innings limit has me passing on him this year. |
| 67 | Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals | Even if C-Mart doesn’t win the 5th spot in the Cards rotation, he can just cheer himself up with his Twitter favorites! Too much upside to rank much lower and if Joe Kelly wins the 5th spot, Martinez will quickly be the first up if he struggles or anyone gets hurt. |
| 68 | Ubaldo Jimenez, Baltimore Orioles | A very tough guy to rank, and while I have little faith he can be very good, you can’t ignore what he did in the second half last year. |
| 69 | Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels | Mixed reviews in Spring, and mixed reviews when up last year. Huge bender with a curveball, but it’s so slow and bendy it’s easy to identify. I don’t know if his heater is good enough to work with that, but he has potential for a good team with a good park. |
| 70 | Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants | The Ks are nice and remain there, but man, fastball velocity keeps diving to 90.2 last year, while his bread and butter pitch the change-up is remaining in the 83-84 MPH range it has his whole career. He’s had lucky sub 70% LOBs the last two years, so I think high 4s ERA and 1.35 WHIP will hurt the Ks ya get. |
| 71 | Hector Santiago, Los Angeles Angels | Has shown some great flashes in the games I’ve caught of his, but still can’t get his WHIP under control. Still, he’s a flyball pitcher who moves to a much better pitcher’s park. Very nice 19 Ks to 6 BBs in 16.1 Spring innings and he’s still only 26. Some interesting sleeper potential here. |
| 72 | Dan Straily, Oakland Athletics | While I like the K upside, has had some really fortunate BABIPs in the Majors with .225 in 2012 and .266 last year. Also 7 BBs to 5 Ks in 9.1 Spring innings right now. I could see him hitting on some sleeper breakout potential, but I wouldn’t overly reach. |
| 73 | Wily Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers | Peralta gets a lot of buzz, and as a Brewers fan I for sure hope he can turn in a big year, but not a big fan for fantasy. Great power stuff, but it’s inconsistent and nothing has big movement. I highly doubt big Ks will come any time soon. |
| 74 | John Lackey, Boston Red Sox | Obviously if you buy anything Lackey did last year you’d have to rank him higher, but I’m such an anti-Lackey guy that I’ll let someone else take the risk. |
| 75 | Tim Hudson, San Francisco Giants | Hey, he’s old but got hurt last year on a fluke ankle break and I think can give enough to be useful. Pitching in SF is always a nice locale for a swan song. |
| 76 | Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers | Declining velocity, declining off-speed effectiveness, I just want nothing to do with Yoga. Or real yoga. |
| 77 | Martin Perez, Texas Rangers | I thought he looked good in a few starts I caught last year and has a little sleeper appeal. Won’t rack up Ks and tough park to pitch in, but I think he could be solid. |
| 78 | Ian Kennedy, San Diego Padres | I’m falling into a trap. I had him higher, but don’t like the Spring. I rarely have it impact me much, but on top of it Kenndey is 29 and getting up there. And I just found out we share a birthday! Anyway, moves to a better park and I think the Ks will be there, but a lot of risk given 1.30 then 1.40 WHIP last two years. |
| 79 | Nathan Eovaldi, Miami Marlins | It hasn’t translated to Ks, but Eovaldi has fantastic power stuff and pitches in that great park. Nice deep sleeper appeal. |
| 80 | Kyle Lohse, Milwaukee Brewers | We all know what Lohse does, nice ERA and WHIP with no Ks. |
| 81 | Ricky Nolasco, Minnesota Twins | Put it together somewhat last year, but it’s Nolasco. Stays in a good pitcher park with the move, but is a yawn. |
| 82 | Michael Pineda, New York Yankees | If you believe, you’ll have to go much higher. Unreal Spring thus far giving up no runs in 9 innings with 14 Ks to 1 BB, but I dunno. Still tough to believe coming off such a bad shoulder injury and I’ll let someone else reach. Innings limit a definite concern as well. |
| 83 | Drew Hutchison, Toronto Blue Jays | Having a ridiculous Spring with 16 Ks to 1 BB in 9.2 IP. Manager John Gibbons has said he’s got the inside track to win a spot in the rotation and he’s been a big K guy through the Minors before and after TJ. Interesante. |
| 84 | Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds | Had a great 2013 that came out of nowhere, but maybe Tony Cingrani bearing down on him gave him motivation. Well, Cingrani is now cemented in the rotation so Leake is gonna suck! Haha, you like that logic? |
| 85 | Ivan Nova, New York Yankees | Maybe buried a bit too deep given he can be a decent source of Ks, but 8.4 HR/FB in NYC was a bit lucky last year. Stranded nearly 80% of runners and I think he regresses as do most. |
| 86 | Zach McAllister, Cleveland Indians | The WHIP was no bueno, but otherwise two decent seasons in 2012 and 13. Unfortunately the BB rate went up last year with the K rate down, but I think there’s a tad of potential. |
| 87 | A.J. Burnett, Philadelphia Phillies | Not touching Burnett as he moves to the bandbox in Philly. |
| 88 | Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays | He’s gotten a fair amount of buzz, but after watching him last year, I don’t think he really has that much upside fantasy-wise. He’s got a full arsenal of four good pitches, but no “great” pitch. Plus there’s the concern of what happens when Jeremy Hellickson gets back. |
| 89 | A.J. Griffin, Oakland Athletics | I’ve never been a Griffin guy, but he was pretty huge last year. Even huger is a .242 BABIP, a ridiculously low 32.1 GB% and the lucky rabbit’s foot he kept in his pocket all 2013. Going to start the year on the DL helps me knock him down, but this low, sure he could be decent when back. |
| 90 | Wade Miley, Arizona Diamondbacks | Will give you decent Ks, and will turn in a big profit if he can get the BB rate back to 2012’s 1.71 after 2.93 last year. Really increased his ground balls last year, so that’s a big step forward given the park. |
| 91 | Jon Niese, New York Mets | I just don’t think he’s healthy enough to pitch enough of the year. Plus has WHIPs over 1.40 in three of the last four years with declining K rates. Passing most likely. |
| 92 | Travis Wood, Chicago Cubs | Just a ridiculous year in 2013. But .248 BABIP, only 6.9 HR/FB and very pedestrian K rate. Uber regression coming. |
| 93 | Bartolo Colon, New York Mets | Having a terrible Spring and doesn’t strike anyone out, but can eat up some innings for you late. See what I did there? |
| 94 | Scott Feldman, Houston Astros | I mean, he was pretty good last year. I watched a couple starts and thought he looked solid, and while he had a low BABIP and I don’t see a sub-4 ERA again, I think can be decent. You will get virtually no Ws though… |
| 95 | Randall Delgado, Arizona Diamondbacks | There’s some upside, but he just doesn’t K enough for me to go much higher. |
| 96 | Jarred Cosart, Houston Astros | An iffy Spring and limited K upside. The ERA was a bit lucky last year at under 2 given a 1.35 WHIP. |
| 97 | Dan Haren, Los Angeles Dodgers | I guess he has some bounceback upside, and indeed has stayed decent with Ks, but I’m not touching him. |
| 98 | James Paxton, Seattle Mariners | Looks like he’ll get the last rotation spot and has some pretty good upside. Uncertain how many starts he’ll make, but worth a deep league upside pick. |
| 99 | Alexi Ogando, Texas Rangers | Pitches well when healthy, but he’s never healthy. Well, strike that, not pitching well in Spring this year. But, you never know, could still be good this year and maybe can stay healthy, worth a late flyer. |
| 100 | Wei-Yin Chen, Baltimore Orioles | Limited upside, but won’t kill you. Got a little lucky with the HR rate last year and I think regresses a tad. |
