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The top 10 and 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball are in the bag, along with the top 20 catchers.  Today, Razzballers, we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball.  All this shizz can be found under the 2010 Fantasy Baseball rankings.  This top 20 list of 1st basemen is the opposite of the catchers, it is bursting at the seams like you at a Hometown Buffet.  Speaking of gorging yourself, as I mentioned elsewhere, I want a top 1st baseman on my team in 2010.  Sure, the list is deep, but 10 of these guys will probably be gone by the 4th round.  Do you really want to go to battle with, say, Derrek Lee when someone else has, say, Ryan Howard?  I don’t.  I want to be one of the teams with a top 1st baseman.  This list will get additional 1st basemen added to it in the way of sleeper posts like I added Kendry Morales last year.  As with the other rankings, the first basemen are broken up into tiers with my projections included.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Albert Pujols – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Albert Pujols’s projections.

2. Mark Teixeira – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Mark Teixeira’s projections.

3. Miguel Cabrera – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

4. Prince Fielder – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Prince Fielder’s projections.

5. Ryan Howard – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Mark Teixeira’s projections.

6. Adrian Gonzalez – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Adrian Gonzalez’s projections.

7. Justin Morneau – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Reynolds.  I call this tier, “Probably as good as the last tier, but their track record’s a little wonky.”  I actually like Morneau this year.  I adverb’d my like because I haven’t liked him in a while.  Probably not since I started this time suck blog.  Why the sudden admiration?  Because I feel like the world has suddenly cooled on him, making him more affordable in drafts.  Of course, my love for him goes in the deep fryer if his back is giving him issues in spring training.  2010 Projections:  95/32/110/.290

8. Kevin Youkilis – Youuuuuuk’s production is very predictable.  In a game where players fluctuate all over the place, there’s value in that predictability.  2010 Projections:  95/27/105/.295/5

9. Mark Reynolds – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Mark Reynolds’s projections.

10. Joey Votto – This is a new tier.  This tier is just Votto.  I call this tier, “Yes, please.”  Here I went over my Votto fantasy for 2010.  2010 Projections:  90/30/105/.305/7

11. Victor Martinez – This is a new tier.  This tier goes until Lee.  I call this tier, “Caveats.”  The caveat with V-Mart is he could be rested more than the usual first baseman since he’ll be catching on most days.  See the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball for Victor Martinez’s projections.

12. Pablo Sandoval – It’s hard to not like a chubby guy who goes by the nickname, Kung Fu Panda.  Who doesn’t love pandas?  It’s unpatriotic (in China).  I love pandas so much I want a freakin’ panda dog.  If I had a kid, I’m dye the kid to look like a panda.  So, I do like Pablo Sandoval.  But there’s caveats.  He’s not really a home run hitter.  It would not shock me to see him hit 22 homers in 2010.  Also, his average last year looks to be on the high side.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a .300 average instead of .330.  I like him, just be careful what you’re expecting.  (Obviously at 3rd base, he’s more enticing.)  2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.315/4

13. Kendry Morales – I still like Kendry for 2010, but there’s some reason to believe 2009 was his career year.  He’s more of a .285 hitter than a .305 hitter.  I don’t entirely believe the power.  He’s more of a 27-plus homer hitter than a 32-plus hitter.  It might be quibbling, but if Kendry lands on the bottom of his potential, is he that different than Cuddyer?  2010 Projections:  80/28/100/.285/3

14. Adam Dunn - SAT question of the day.  From 2006 to 2009, Adam Dunn hit .234, .264, .236, .267, respectively.   In 2010, Adam Dunn will hit A) .238 B) 40 homers C) There is no C.  2010 Projections:  80/40/100/.250

15. Carlos Pena – Last year, Pena’s average was lower than it should’ve been. He’s still only a .250 hitter.  .250 hitters can hit .220 again if the ball doesn’t bounce like it should.  Pena also led the AL in homers.  2010 Projections:  95/37/100/.250

16. Derrek Lee – Derrek Lee had the highest fly ball percentage of his career last year.  Okay, hotshot, now you have to ask yourself, do you think he’s going to continue this in 2010 or do you think he’s going to revert to his career norms outside of 2009?  2010 Projections:  90/25/100/.295

17. Lance Berkman – Hmm… He hit 29 homers in his 2008 season when he was 32-years-old.  At the age of 33, he hit 25.  By the time he’s 40, he’s going to be Juan Pierre.  I wouldn’t expect 30 homers just because you and your brother, Jimbo, grew up watching Berkman hit 30 bombs a year.  Before Canseco started sticking suckas with needles, it was pretty normal to see a decline in players Berkman’s age.  2010 Projections:  70/23/85/.285/3

18. Billy Butler – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Davis.  I call this tier, “Your last chance for some upside, but these guys aren’t slam dunks.”  Last year he hit 51 doubles.  Have you seen the moobs on this guy?  He has to hit a few more of those doubles for homers in 2010, doesn’t he?  I like to think so.  Though I have noticed something of late.  He seems to be turning into a sleeper sell, like Chris Davis last year. Butler still hits lots of ground balls and he needed 672 plate appearances for 21 homers last year.  Don’t go crazy with yourself expecting the world from Butler.  He may end up overrated even if I like him to an extent.  2010 Projections:  85/25/100/.295

19. Garrett Jones – He’s just so old for a 2nd year player that it’s hard to get fully behind him.  He reminds me of Ludwick.  Big splash his rookie year then a fade in the 2nd year.  He obviously could go 30/10, but he can also get exploited over a full season and end up being waiver fodder.  Caveat emptor, for those reading in Latin America.  2010 Projections:  65/25/80/.255/12

20. Chris Davis – Read all about him in my Chris Davis sleeper post.  2010 Projections:  65/28/85/.255/7

21. Michael Cuddyer – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Loney.  I call this tier, “I hope you’re sitting in an exit row.” Cuddyer is a 24 homer, .275 hitter.  Last year was a career year…. And it’s not even that great of a career.  Don’t pay for a career year the following season.  2010 Projections:  85/24/95/.275/5

22. Russell Branyan – Last year was nice, I really don’t see it happening again.  And, if it does happen again from a power standpoint, I wouldn’t expect the average to even be as high as last year’s .251 mark.  2010 Projections:  60/22/70/.240

23. James Loney – It feels like every year Loney is ranked 20th with the promise of more.  This year, I’m ranking him 20th and expecting 20th ranked production.  Whether it’s his ground ball rate or mediocre power, I don’t know, but he’s not getting better.  2010 Projections: 75/15/85/.290/4

After the top 20, there’s lots of names, but two stand out:

Brandon Allen – I went over him in the Brandon Allen fantasy baseball outlook whosie-wiggers.  Has 20 homer power to spare.  Want someone that can surprise and move into the top 15 next year?  Here ya go.  UPDATE:  LaRoche signed with the Diamondbacks.  This is one of those signings where you know the club isn’t thinking, “Yeah! LaRoche makes us a playoff team!” Or, “Yeah!  LaRoche puts bodies in the seats!”  This is one of those moves where you don’t know what the club is thinking.  Play the youngster!  Alas, they’re not going to.  They’re going to play LaRoche.  Adam LaRoche’s 2010 Projections:  70/27/80/.265

Carlos Delgado – UPDATE:  Out for four months.

  1. dean says:
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    agreed. i think I like Votto ahead of morneau but thats my only beef. thanks again!

  2. Steve says:
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    Um – even not counting Allen and Delgado, looks like you have a Top 23 going here. The more the merrier!

  3. mikey boy324 says:
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    me too i think votto could be top 5 next year as long as he avoids his dizzy spells…

  4. Eddy says:
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    I think I’ actually take Votto over Reynolds. Then again, who’s using Reynolds as a 1B anyways!?

    Unfortunately Votto is going quite early in all my drafts, about a round or so. That early in the draft im definitely not reaching.

  5. Cheese

    Cheese says:
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    Grey, you may want to check your numbers… You have two #11s, and two #12s! Oh, and then two #15s… was this all intentional??

  6. 101 M.P.H. says:
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    Not quite as much talent as the catching pool, but I guess we’ll have to make due….

    Now for my questions (in keeping with your strategy to draft a top tier first baseman):

    If given the choice between keeping

    a) Jason Kubel ($10); and

    b) Billy Butler ($10)

    for 2010, who would you choose?

  7. quimmy says:
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    Participated in the Razzball Comentators Draft last night. I experimented with my runs, avg, speed, stud sp (RASS) drafting straregy and needless to say it was an unmitigated failure I won’t try again anytime soon.

  8. GopherDay says:
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    @Cheese: I just noticed that too! Its the top 23 1B for 2010

  9. Tony says:
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    @Grey or anyone: I’m in a league that counts RUNS, singles, doubles, triples, HR’s, RBI’s, SB’s, K’s, BB’s and AVG…. How much do you value average?

    I know lots of times you post how average can flux so much and its about like wins, kind of a crapshoot, 20 points one way or the other is possible.

    In my league we have a 10×10. And those are our hitting cats. Its crazy, yet very interesting because Curtis Granderson hitting you a triple on sunday can make or break your day, etc… happens all the time. Counting the individual hitting cats really puts emphasis on what TYPE of hitters you have too. You obviously need a pretty high team batting average in theory because you need lots of singles, doubles, triples, and HR’s to win those specific cats? Does that really bump a guy like billy butler or whoever that hits for higher average than a guy like Pena who isn’t going to fill the cats as much?

    THOUGHTS?

  10. Tony says:
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    @Tony: It also needs alot more STRATEGERIZING because if you need steals on sunday to catch your opponent (H2H) then you can bench guys like Adam Lind and throw in an OF’er normally on your bench (willy taveras, horrible example) thats a speedster. Since you cant win HR’s that week anyways, it makes sense to take that chance….

  11. Ian says:
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    Berkman’s power numbers have been all over the place his whole career. His HR totals since ’01: 34, 42, 25, 30, 24, 45, 34, 29, and 25. He played at least 152 games in all but 2 of those years.

    He’s a tough dude to project. His HRs could total anywhere from 22-35 this year, but if he plays a full year his run and RBIs should both be around 100 and his BA should be good enough not to hurt you.

    The biggest thing I’m worried about is his health. For the most part he’s been pretty healthy throughout his career. He was hurt some last year, right? What kind of injury was it? I think it was back/hip pain which could be something that continues to bother him

  12. Tony says:
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    How close was justin upton to being in the TOP 20?

  13. Charlie says:
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    Time to bump down Brandon Allen. LaRoche just signed a one year contract with the DBacks.

  14. zk says:
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    My Votto Fantasy involved Katy Perry and a hoola hoop.

    I’m shocked some of the early mags are ranking Morales lower than 12. By shocked I mean that people are still buying any published material on roto other than Shandler’s Projections.

  15. Josh says:
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    I really think you need two of the top 13 here to have a solid chance. If you can play a good 1B at CI, thats a tough spot for most teams to match you. Leave the middle infielders, outfielders, and pitchers, since there’s plenty to go around. I’ll probably take a 1B with 2 of my top 4 picks.

  16. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @dean: No problem.

    @Steve: Top 23 just doesn’t have the ring.

    @Cheese: All part of the master plan. No, wasn’t intentional. I’m an idiot.

    @101 M.P.H.: Butler

    @Ian: He had a calf strain.

    @Tony: Upton’s close.

    @Charlie: Aw, fudge. All right, I need to edit this.

    @zk: Ha! Great comment.

    @Josh: Two might be a bit much, but I do want one.

  17. Jo says:
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    @zk: I agree, Morales needs to be higher for 2010… maybe i’m going out on a limb here but is he that much different from votto? He hit above .300 every year in the minors with a good showing of power. finally broke out last year and made his majors numbers match his minors. Oh, and he should be batting 3rd in the angels lineup next season. With an adp of at least 6-7 rounds later then Votto, I’ll take Morales.

  18. I was way more on board with you downplaying Mini-Donkey before I saw you have Reyes in the top 20. Something about speed guys and bum wheels and being on the mets doesnt fit for me.

  19. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Josh: BTW, I meant, two of 13 isn’t too much, two of 4 is though.

    @mrbaseball: Looking at a 30 homer, .260 hitter in 3 years.

    @Elijah: He’s much younger than Beltran and he had leg problems about four years ago and bounced back fine for a while. He could totally come up short in Spring Training and plummet in my rankings, but as of right now.

  20. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @quimmy: I really don’t know what is up with Mock Central’s projections. For example, they had you ranked 1 (bottom) for HR; I had you at 10.

    Across the board I had you at (Central’s order):
    AVG/HR/RBI/SB/R/W/S/K/WHIP/ERA/TOT/Rank

    7/10/10/11/11/3/8/4/3/6/73/3

    Is this closer to what you were expecting?

  21. zk says:
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    @Jo: Morales also has the good fortune of no longer having to smell Vlad’s morning dumps. I only think about profit when it comes to roto: Votto is going to cost me $25 and earn me $28. Big deal. Morales I can trashtalk at the auction and get for as little as $14. “Morales relied on Vlad for those numbers!”

  22. Cheese

    Cheese says:
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    Grey, not sure if you remember my message yesterday about setting up a point based system for my league (H, R, HR, RBI, AVG, SLG, BB, SB). If you recall, it was:
    R – 20
    HR – 30
    RBI – 20
    AVG – 20
    SB – 10
    Then you mentioned AVG usually leads to more walks, which is true, but it also leads to more hits, which is a category, so I changed the points to:
    R – 17
    HR – 30
    RBI – 17
    AVG – 26
    SB – 10
    Still a base of 100. The main change for this was because Ryan Howard was being valued way more than anyone else. But even with the new system, my top 5 first basemen come up…
    Howard, Pujols, Fielder, Cabrera and Teixeira (in order)

    Does it make any sense to draft Howard before Pujols, even with this league set up? Basically what I’m asking is, can you make an argument to draft Howard before Pujols?

  23. zk says:
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    @Cheese: My gods! If Grey’s willing to do this much work to answer one comment on one post, might I ask him to grade my 12th grade AP Lit finals on the Brothers Karamazov?

  24. Cheese

    Cheese says:
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    @zk: There’s no “work” involved. I’ve done all the calculations. And based on my calculations it has Howard above Pujols. All I’m asking Grey, based on my league set-up, is if it makes sense to draft Howard before Pujols. zk, You’re going to have a have a tough time doing much in life if that seems like a lot of work…

  25. Jo says:
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    @cheese: IMO, I don’t know of any way to spin it to make howard a better player then pujols… maybe if you put negative point for strikeouts you could even the league out.

  26. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Cheese: Yeah, that change looks like it works. No Howard before Pujols. Pujols is much better on average, slightly better on Runs and near equal on RBIs.

    @zk: B+

  27. zk says:
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    @Cheese: I’m bored. It takes work to read a post that boring. Was my point. Plus, you may want to re-read it and prove that it’s not work to answer that post. Plus, if the calculations make sense, why bother the poor man? Plus, I’m not getting in a reply-fight with someone called Cheese!

  28. zk says:
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    @Grey: Even though she thinks Dmitri is a lot like Harry Potter? Who am I to doubt you? Done. Thus endth my 1 available hour of the year to comment on Razzball. Please wake me up when it’s time for me to make a fool of myself in the razzball league(s).

  29. Probable Party Starter says:
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    Thanks for reeling me back in Grey. I was so productive @ work over the past few months. So much for that now.
    Loving the lists. In my H2H Keeper (5 + OPS) which 3 do you love most? Howard, J-Upside, Votto, Lind, Zimmerman, Granderson

  30. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Cheese: I appreciate the work that you are doing. It will help you refine your team. My guess is that your teams will finish ahead of those that have “bored” oweners. :-)

  31. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Simply Fred: edit: owners

  32. royce! says:
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    @Cheese: Have you tried looking at baseballmonster.com? You can modify ranking by specifying the stats your league counts. I entered the stats your league counts and it had Pujols at 1 and Howard at 8. I think that Howard’s AVG compared to Pujols’s makes a big difference. There’s also the steals. Unfortunately, this is only with last year’s stats, but I think it would also work with projections for 2010.

  33. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Probable Party Starter: Howard, J-Upside, Zimmerman…. I like Votto a lot but not if you have Howard.

  34. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Cheese: I had Howard in last night’s draft. Supplanted Pujols in his place and picked up three ranking points.

    If they both run true to form, Pujols still the better pick (at least for my combo of players).

  35. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Simply Fred: BTW: that includes projected 48 HR and 143 RBI for Howard; Pujols still adds more.

  36. JoeC says:
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    What about Aubrey Huff? Signing with the Giants and hitting clean-up… I think he could have a good year.

    Personally, I’ve always hated him, but he’s surprised me about every other year.

  37. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Simply Fred: checked again, the difference was all in average; from Howard (.278) to Pujols (.333) brought me up 3 places in average.

  38. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @JoeC: He would be around the same spot as LaRoche. Around 25th. Not a huge fan and SF doesn’t do him much favors.

  39. Jo says:
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    @grey: I would like to recommend some rigorous baseball over the next couple weeks… and by that I think we should copy my old hs football team and implement 2-a-day’s. 2 new positions per day :)

  40. quimmy says:
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    @Simply Fred: I play in a league where we count 2b, 3b and sb-cs as factors so sb proficiency is a huge factor. I did a mock draft over at cbs and came up with the following team which in my league would have made me a beast:

    Ryan DoumitC
    Billy Butler1B
    Howie Kendrick2B
    Chone Figgins3B
    Troy TulowitzkiSS
    Carlos BeltranOF
    Torii HunterOF
    Matt KempOF
    Ichiro SuzukiOF
    Jayson WerthOF
    Julio BorbonU
    Carlos GonzalezU
    Yovani GallardoP
    Mike GonzalezP
    Zack GreinkeP
    Josh JohnsonP
    Scott KazmirP
    Ben SheetsP
    Rafael SorianoP
    Justin VerlanderP
    Billy WagnerP
    Jason FrasorP

    Basically, my idea is to punt hr and rbi and concentrate on all the pitching cats (era, whip, w-l, k, s-bs, hd, innings, qs) and 6 out of 8 hitting cats (avg, 2b, 3b, r, hr, rbi, sb-cs, bb).

    The draft had last night left me dissappointed with my pitching staff.

    thoughts?

  41. big o says:
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    @Grey:
    for the past 2-3 years all of the , so-called ,
    top-flight baseball pundits have been touting the “magic” of 27 year-old players .
    this theory has always made me “almost laugh a little bit in my mouth” (insert snicker <== not the candy bar) .
    however ,
    when it comes to kendry morales ,
    would the magic come from the fact that a latin27 actually coincides with a real-world 27 ??

  42. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jo: If the 100 monkeys on 99 typewriters would type faster, we might be able to get them out quicker.

    @big o: Latin 27 would be Real World 30 and neither are magical.

  43. quimmy says:
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    @grey: what do you think about punting hr and rbi in the scoring format i mentioned?

  44. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @quimmy: Yeah, your format makes speed guys very valuable. I could see Ellsbury being a 1st rounder there.

  45. quimmy says:
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    @grey: if i am punting hr and rbi i would really value speed at a position like 3B. would u pass on draftin wright in say late rd 1 and try to get figgins in rd5/6?

  46. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @quimmy: Yeah, I’d even go for Figgins in the 4th.

  47. quimmy says:
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    @grey: sweet, thx

  48. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @quimmy: I put the team you posted in place of your picks last night. You drop from #3 to #5. Of course, neither projects based upon your league scoring.

    Really don’t like the idea of punting categories. When you get a 1 in HR, 1 in RBI, and 2 in R (which your team does), it is just too tough to overcome. You got a 12 in ERA (which is much less stable and, therefore, more unpredictable than WHIP). You can’t get an 18 in a pitching cat that can make up for the 1′s and 2′s.

  49. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @quimmy: I can’t speak to your particular format since my spreadsheet doesn’t currently weigh 2B, 3B, CS.

  50. cws05nuts says:
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    Are panda dogs available in the razzball gift store? If not get Doc on that shizz.

  51. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @cws05nuts: You’d have to outbid me.

  52. cws05nuts says:
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    @Grey: Curses!

    OK pseudo-serious 1b inquiry. I’ve got a little situation come about after three trades the other day that landed me Votto, Longoria, and Kinsler. Nice little keeper league going where we get to keep 5 as our first 5 rounders. It’s a pts league where k’s count as -1.

    So keeper wise I’m left with Howard, Votto, Kinsler, Mauer, Holliday, and Longoria. Howard is getting to that 33 and usually finishes as the 5th-9th 1b in our scoring format. Should I get younger and keep Votto instead of Howard? Or just aim to redraft Votto? I know you’re thinking get rid of Mauer. But he is a beast with regards to our scoring.

  53. Doc says:
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    @cws05nuts: It takes a while to breed Razzball colored Panda Dogs. They should be available in 2075.

  54. cws05nuts says:
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    @Doc: Ha! Doc never underestimate yourself. It only takes 50 years to domesticate foxes.

    http://science.slashdot.org/story/09/12/26/0328244/50-Years-of-Domesticating-Foxes-For-Science

    @Grey: OK. I’ll believe then. I’m just such a Howard hack too. He slumps but in our h2h format he can just crush a month for me. But I’m with yah I think long term it is the right move and can acquire Votto long term and hopefully reup with ryhow for the year.

  55. Cheese

    Cheese says:
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    @royce!: Thanks for the site, but it seemed rather confusing, especially when I don’t get to manually input projections. Or am I missing where you can?

    @Simply Fred: Interesting. Although, I think you’re referring to a roto league, rather than H2H. For the playoffs, Howard is the man to lean on. But over the course of a season, Pujols is very consistent and obviously puts up much better numbers. A lot of guys in my league do not like Howard for some reason, so I wouldn’t be upset with the 10th overall pick (out of 16 teams) because I could probably land Howard at#10 or later.

  56. Lockport says:
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    How did Konerko not make the top 20 for 1B????

  57. Keith says:
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    What position do you think has the biggest difference between players 1 and players 5?

  58. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Lockport: He’d be aroud the 24th or 25th ranked one.

    @Keith: Catchers

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