Fantasy Baseball Advice

The top 50 fantasy baseball prospects list aims to provide a list solely for fantasy baseball purposes. Due to fantasy baseball’s immediacy of statistical production, players are not necessarily ranked based on tools or projections far into the future, but instead, current production. Aspects taken into consideration are fantasy baseball’s positional scarcity, Razzball philosophies, scouting reports and personal biases. Please keep in mind that this is published before the end of the 2011 season. Therefore, it is highly possible that some rookies on this list may lose their rookie eligibility (e.g. Kyle Seager), others who were expected to continue to acquire enough experience by the end of the season who may not (e.g. Brett Lawrie). Revision in the late off-season shall occur. There are highly touted names omitted from the Top 50 list that some might believe warrant a ranking that don’t fall into the prior caveat(s). Before lamenting, please check the Honorable Mention section. The most notable omissions are either blocked, provide more real world baseball value, need to repeat performance because of their pedigree, have GM’s avoiding Super-2 status or are rebounding from injuries. The signings in the upcoming weeks of the offseason and Spring Training could cause many players to rise or fall. Disputes, inquiries and general feedback is welcomed and encouraged. To be included, I used MLB eligibility requirements — less than 130 ABs or 50 IP, though I’ve made a few exceptions where I felt it was warranted. See Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2012, Part I for the complete list.

26. Trevor Bauer – RHP (SP) – ARI: Considered MLB-ready outta the gate when drafted in June 2011. Keith Law’s pre-draft scouting report indicates, “[His] fastball-curveball combination is [...] big league-caliber … shown he can get deep into games with regularity despite the lack of prototypical physicality. His heavy college workload — topping 130 pitches in the majority of his starts this spring [2011] … [workload] could impact whether he helps the Arizona Diamondbacks this season or what role in which that would come.” He has a plus-fastball sits between 92 to 95 MPH with good life and a 12-to-6 plus-curveball. His changeup needs work. Control and command is spotty and inconsistent, typically derived from overthrowing. Mechanically the only true concern is him locking his left knee upon delivery of the baseball. There is concern of possible knee injuries in the future. Beyond this quibble, his stuff is not in question, it is his combination of control and command, being overworked in college, and possible mechanically driven medical concern.

27. Martin Perez – LHP (SP) – TEX: Texas is loaded at pitcher, but you can never have enough young arms. Perez followed up a poor 2010 in Double-A with improved numbers across the board at Double-A but a regression in production when promoted to Triple-A. I see a midseason call-up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

28. Garrett Richards – LHP (SP) – ATL: The Angels gave Richards two spot starts in 2011 in which he struggled. Prior to 2011 and before reaching more advanced hitters (read: before Double-A), he was able to produce high strikeout rates. In 2011, at Double-A, Richards strikeout rates plummeted from mid-9 K/9 to 6.5 K/9. Projects as a mid-rotation starter who pitches to contact or a power reliever.

29. Zack Cox – 3B – St.L: David Freese is not the answer for the Cardinals at third base. The 22-year-old Cox had an excellent 2011 season. In 344 Double-A at-bats he slashed .294/.357/.436 with 29 XBH (10 Hr) and a 69:29 K:BB ratio. Is considered a “gifted hitter with strength and strike-zone awareness.” Offensively reminds me of Ryan Zimmerman.

30. Kyle Seager – 2B/3B – SEA: By the end of the season, his rookie eligibility may be void. The Mariners hot-corner hasn’t been the same since Adrian Beltre left. Seager has the flexibility to play multiple positions. Barring an injury, would get the nod over Alex Liddi at this point. Seager has shown to be of average power – gap mostly – produces a decent average and the occasional stolen base.

31. Eric Surkamp – LHP (SP) – SF: Earlier this year, I said, “Surkamp is a soft-tossing lefty … Fastball sits in the upper 80s with heavy sinking action. Changeup and curveball are both plus pitches. Has a three-quarter delivery that creates good deception and he has strong command of all his pitches.”

32. Bryce Harper – RF – WAS: The hype will start early in April and build to a crescendo in June. I don’t think he’ll be up before August at the earliest. I’d expect Mike Trout-type results upon his first call-up. In his prime, I think he’ll be similar to Ryan Braun in his prime. This is all assuming no major setbacks or injuries in 2012.

33. Jake Odorriz – RHP (SP) – KC: The Royals are loaded with pitching prospects. As exemplified by Danny Duffy, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas Johnny Giavotella, Salvador Perez, Aaron Crow and Tim Collins’ 2011 call-ups, the Royals 2012 roster should see a heavy turnover, especially at pitcher. Will start out of the gate or be a June call up. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

34. Joe Benson – OF – MIN: The Twins best power hitting prospect. Injury prone. When healthy has shown strong plate discipline, above-average power (25 to 30 home run ceiling), and ability to steal the occasional base. He’s a Hunter Pence with a slightly lower average and a few less steals, if/when healthy.

35. John Lamb – LHP (SP) – KC: See half-inch above in the Odorizzi blurb. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

36. Chris Marrero – 1B – WAS: With Mike Morse coming into his own in 2011, the Nationals will not have to rush Marrero into the starting lineup. He’s proven himself at each level. In his prime, projects as a mid-20 home run hitter. Currently, I would expect a Freddie Freeman-type rookie season: .291/.352/.461 and high-teen home runs over a full season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

37. Dellin Betances – RHP (SP) – NYY: As the Yankees best pitching prospect, high expectations will be placed on him, especially with the recent back-end rotation woes for the Bronx Bombers. June call-up looks to be in place. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

38. Liam Hendriks – RHP (SP) – MIN: With Kyle Gibson’s injury concern, Hendriks becomes the next best pitching prospect ready for the show in Minnesota. Not that the Twins will rush him, but their rotation is easily trumped by the Braves Triple-A rotation. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

39. Mike Montgomery – LHP (SP) – KC: Will need to improve command, limit walks and gain more consistency to be more than an AL-Only add. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

40. Kirk Nieuwenhuis – RF – NYM: To quote my Scouting article, “possesses good all-around, broad skill-set played at a balls-to-the-wall approach. Meaning, he has all tools ranging from fringe-average to average tools that make him a solid player but unspectacular at any specific skill. Hitting approach is strong, attempting to utilize all fields and working the count. Still projects as a .270 hitter with gap power within his line-drive swing.” Strikeouts will always be a concern. He’s one Angel Pagan injury away from seeing significant playing time in 2012. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

41. Steve Lombardozzi – 2B/IF – WAS: The Nationals were unwilling to give him up in a trade for Denard Span. Of course they did, they are the same player but at different positions.

42. Robbie Erlin – LHP (SP) – SD: Good strikeout potential, excellent future home ballpark, and amazing control. Yes, please. Listed lower than my praise because I don’t see the Padres rushing him to the majors.

43. Neil Ramirez – RHP (SP) – TEX: Similar to Erlin, I see the Rangers allow him to accumulate more experience at Triple-A. He started the 2011 season at High-A and was promoted to Triple-A and then demoted to Double-A. Needs to improve command. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

44. Andrew Oliver – LHP (SP) – DET: I think he gets pushed to the bullpen due to inconsistency and command concerns. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

45. Matt Dominguez – 3B – FLA: A strong NL-only and deep league play. He’ll sustain his major league career through his excellent defensive skills not his average-at-best bat. Projects to be a .260 hitter with average power (15 home runs). So David Freese.

46. Jaff Decker – LF – SD: At some point, his old-player skill-set (power and walks with poor defense) will catch up to his prospect value. Currently, I see him being a similar type of player as Jack Cust. That’s both a compliment and a red flag. May need to traded to an AL team to play DH. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.

47. Casey Kelly – RHP (SP) – SD: Similar predicament to Robbie Erlin, but without strikeout potential – not even close. His home park causes his value to rise. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

48. Grant Green – SS – OAK: Cliff Pennington is keeping the spot warm for the future A’s shortstop. Better gap power than home run power (projects as average power), strong average, an occasional steal. Defensively, question marks are raise about his efficiency. Think a .300 hitter with 12 to 15 home runs and 10 steals from shortstop over the course of the season. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

49. Nick Franklin – SS – SEA: Injuries slowed his 2011 season down. Projects for a .280, 12 to 15 home run and 10 steal player. He plays good defense, has a smooth swing and average speed. His 2010 season was bolstered by his environment (California League). With Dustin Ackley manning second, Franklin appears to remain at shortstop. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

50. Travis d’Arnaud – C – TOR: Won the Eastern League MVP with the following slash line: .311/.371/.542 with 55 XBH (21 Hr) and a 100:33 K:BB ratio. Is blocked by J.P. Arencibia at the major league level. Travis d’Arnaud plays much better defense and makes better contact than Arencibia. The power potential is not the same with d’Arnaud, but he could easily hit between 15 and 20 home runs in his rookie year given a full seasons of at-bats (~400). However, that number of at-bats is highly unlikely, more likely to receive 250 at-bats. In that time frame, he could have 5 to 8 home runs with a digestible average.

Extra
51. Josh Vitters – 3B – CHC: Hitting wise, I consider him similar to Delmon Young: swings early and often, relies on pedigree and natural talent, is inconsistent. Defensively he is superior to Young. Aramis Ramirez has shown to be injury prone two of the last three years. Cub fans may finally see their 2007 first round pick. Keep in mind he is turned only 22 on August 27th. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

Late Scratch
Kyle Gibson – RHP (SP) – MIN: He would be a top 15 fantasy prospect if he wasn’t having Tommy John Surgery after injuring his elbow. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reported on September 1, 2011, “Gibson will have reconstructive surgery on his elbow after the initial phase of his rehabilitation program did not go well … surgery [was performed 9/7/11] in New York, … surgery done by Mets team physician, Dr. David Altcheck, who also operated on Joe Nathan’s elbow last year.” I don’t think I’ve ever heard a pitcher who’s pitching elbow hurt significantly successfully complete rehab without TJ Surgery. Twins fans hope that the Mets medical staff doesn’t advise on the healing process either. Then again, Joe Mauer had “bi-lateral leg soreness” for a month. Not sure where Dr. James Andrew (a.k.a Dr. Freeze) was in the whole conversation. Gibson was shutdown early August with elbow tenderness. Statistically, it appeared that his injury may have been lingering since early July. Not relevant until 2013. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.

Honorable Mentions
In no particular order
Nick Weglarz (RF, CLE); Casey Crosby (LHP, DET); Trevor Bauer (RHP, ARI); LJ Hoes (2B, BAL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU); Jedd Gyorko (3B, SD); Carlos Triunfel (SS, SEA); Adeiny Hechavarria (SS, TOR); Anthony Gose (OF, TOR); Yasmani Grandal (C, CIN); Chris Archer (TB) (RHP, TB); Jeff Locke (LHP, PIT); Tony Sanchez (C, PIT); Austin Hyatt(RHP, PHI), Michael Taylor (RF, OAK); Chris Withrow (LHP, LAD); Lars Anderson (1B, BOS); Brandon Guyer (OF, TB); Deck McGuire (RHP, TOR); Simon Castro (RHP, SD); Trevor May (RHP, PHI); Jake McGee (LHP, TB); Jeurys Familia (RHP, NYM); Christian Friedrich (LHP, COL); David Cooper (1B, TOR); Austin Romine (C, NYY); Tom Milone (LHP, WAS); Clint Robinson (1B, KC); David Lough (OF, KC); Tim Wheeler (LF/RF, COL); Alex Liddi (3B, SEA); Adrian Cardenas (2B/MI, OAK); Alex Torres (RHP, TB); Rudy Owens (LHP, PIT); Tanner Scheppers (RHP, TEX); Starling Marte (CF, PIT); Matt Adams (1B, St.L); Jose Iglesias (SS, BOS); Carlos Peguero (LF, SEA); Chris Parmelee (1B, MIN); Caleb Gindl (RF, MIL); Jarred Cosart (RHP, HOU)

The Milwaukee Brewers promoted the 24-year-old, unranked third baseman Taylor Green. Has a solid swing, controls strike zone and make consistent sound contact, power is average at best. Defensively is where he stands out, showing above-average skill. This year at Triple-A (Pacific Coast League) he has a dominant slash line .336/.413/.583 in 420 at-bats with 59 XBH (22 Hr) and a 72:55 K:BB ratio. Keep in mind this came with a .359 BABIP and within a very friendly environment for hitters. It’s expected Green will primarily be a part-time third base and pinch-hitter down the stretch. If he continues to hit in the majors when given the opportunity, could provide a nice spark in H2H leagues.

Travis d’Arnaud | TOR | C: Named to the Eastern League (Double-A) Post-Season All-Star squad and named League MVP. Slashed .315/.376/.543 in 400 at-bats with 52 XBH (19 Hr) and a 93:31 K:BB ratio. Would not be surprised to see him in September. An all-around prospect, plays good defense, has a solid bat (think 15 to 20 home runs in the majors) and a strong arm. Doesn’t have the same power potential as J.P. Arencibia.

Brad Peacock | WAS | RHP (SP): Was also named to the Eastern League postseason All-Star squad, even after getting promoted to Triple-A. Speaking of promotions, Peacock, along with two other teammates (see below), are getting promoted to the Majors come September according to MLB.com. With a power arm and high ceiling, Peacock is the more intriguing pitcher play while …

Tom Milone | WAS | LHP (SP):  Is a soft tossing lefty who relies on the ghost of Jamie Moyer and strong command and control to succeed. Risky play.

Steve Lombardozzi | WAS | 2B: Gap power, decent speed, fair plate discipline (72:37 K:BB) and reliable defense. Sounds like Denard Span at second base, the same player they tried to acquire from the Twins but refused to part with.

Eric Surkamp | SF | LHP (SP): Also a soft-tossing lefty, Surkamp received a promotion to start yesterday. Fastball sits in the upper 80s with heavy sinking action. Changeup and curveball are both plus pitches. Has a three-quarter delivery that creates good deception and he has strong command of all his pitches. I’d monitor in mixed leagues and pick up in NL-only and deep leagues. I’d take him over Milone.

Nick Hagadone | CLE | LHP (RP): Was recalled on Thursday from Triple-A. At one point was a starter, but due to command issues – struggled to repeat mechanics – he was moved to the bullpen. He throws a mid-to-high 90s fastball and a “put away” slider. Could be a reliable source of high-strikeouts if needed.

Ryan Lavarnway | BOS | C: Returned to Triple-A as David Ortiz was removed from the DL. I highly recommend holding onto Lavarnway as he’ll return when the rosters expand in September.

Dayan Vicideo | CHW | OF: Will replace Carlos Quentin’s roster spot as he was placed on the DL. He’s the Cuban Delmon Young.

Drew Pomeranz | COL | LHP (SP): Had an emergency appendectomy 8/20/11. Has likely pitched his last inning of the season. Could see in Arizona Fall League. I don’t expect the Rockies to promote him to the majors.

James Darnell | SD | 3B: The Padres optioned James Darnell back to Triple-A. For every Eric Hosmer, Desmond Jennings, Brett Lawrie and Freddie Freeman this season, there has been a Darnell, Rizzo, Moustakas, or Dee Gordon.

Shelby Miller | St.L | RHP (SP): Returned from his suspension (team alcohol policy violation) Tuesday night and went 4 IP, with 2 ER, 5 baserunners (3 BB) and 3 Ks. One of the top pitching prospects in the game has gone 126 2/3 IP with 155 strikeouts and only 20 walks. His mid-to-high 90s fastball while have to wait in the minors until 2012. I don’t expect him to receive a September call-up.

Tyler Skaggs / Jarrod Parker | ARI | SP: It’s been reported that the Diamondbacks will allow both pitchers to compete for a starting rotation spot in Spring Training of 2012.

Carlos Tocci | PHI | OF: Phillies agreed to terms with Venezuelan outfielder Carlos Tocci. “According to Ben Badler of Baseball America, the 16-year-old outfielder will receive $759,000, which is one of the highest bonuses the organization has ever given an international amateur free agent. Tocci is highly-regarded for his plus-speed and hitting potential.” Yeah, it’s gonna be a while before Tocci will be spoken about again.

Toronto Blue Jays 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2010)
2010 (28) | 2009 (19) | 2008 (25) | 2007 (25) | 2006 (25) | 2005 (15) | 2004 (8)

Record of Major and Minor League Team(s)
MLB: [85 – 77] AL East
AAA: [66 – 78] Pacific Coast League – Las Vegas
AA: [79 – 62] Eastern League – New Hampshire
A+: [72 – 67] Florida League – Dunedin
A: [70 – 69] Midwest League – Lansing
A(ss): [35 – 40] New York – Pennsylvania League – Auburn
R: [31-28] Gulf Coast League

The Run Down
My Blue Jays 2009 Minor League Review said, “[The] Blue Jays may be better than expected [in 2010]. However, there is a rather large “IF” on each of those players [to continue to produce in the future].” The player with “if” tags? Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Travis Snider, and Shawn Marcum. Three-fourth of the players listed struggled or were injured for most of the year. 2010 saw the Jays post a winning record (last one was in 2008). The Blue Jays were a running strikeout joke here at Razzball, but the Diamondbacks would have won that if they would have had any good fantasy hitters this year. Surprise years from Jose Bautista, John Buck, and a bounce back year from Vernon Wells and Shawn Marcum (injury bounce back) helped the Jays in a brutal division. Youngsters, Ricky Romero progressed very well in 2010, Brett Cecil improved upon his rookie year, and Brandon Morrow had a terrific year posting a 10.95 K/9 – if he was qualified, would have been the highest strikeout rate for a starter. Although the Blue Jays had a winning major league record, they did not have the infusion of rookies or prospects this year as they did in 2009. Not entirely a huge issue, nevertheless, an indication of the lack of a deep talent pool. Granted, the trade of Roy Halladay definitely brought back some great talent (Drabek, d’Arnaud, and Brett Wallace in a side swap for Michael Taylor), there wasn’t a major league ready prospect to start the 2010 season. One surprising name upon perusing the Jays minor league system, Adam Loewen, the former pitcher from Baltimore. Loewen is currently a Blue Jays outfielder, putting his time in at Double-A. He hit 17 homers and looks to be in the Rick Ankiel mold, except Loewen’s pitching problem was injury-based and not a command issue.

Graduating Prospects
None

Arizona Fall League Players -Phoenix Desert Dogs
AFL Rosters
Pitchers: Matt Daly (RHP), Alana Farina (RHP), Dan Farquhar (RHP), TBA (P)
Hitters: Adeiny Hechevarria (SS), Mike McDade (1B), Eric Thames (OF)

Players of Interest for 2011
Hitters
Adeiny Hechavarria | SS | D.o.B: 4-15-89 | Stats (A+/AA): .242/.272/.333 | 414 AB | 26 XBH | 4 Hr | .091 ISO | 13/3 SB/CS | 65:17 K:BB
Signed a 4 year, $10 million deal in April. According to some sources, he was the best Cuban shortstop, ahead of prized Boston Red Sox, Jose Iglesias (who had to play second when they were on the same team). Covers a lot of ground, great quickness, and stellar footwork. Has some power but it is his defense that will make him reach the majors sooner rather than later. Baseball America and John Sickels 2010 handbooks did not have Hechavarria listed. During his first year of professional ball in the USA, Hechavarria struggled at High-A but with a .222 BABIP; Double-A was a different story with a .307 BABIP and a slashline of .273/.305/.360 indicating a light hitting middle infielder with on-base issues. Watch him play at Double-A next year and judge accordingly for his MLB ETA.

#4 David Cooper | 1B | D.o.B: 2-12-87 | Stats (AA): .257/.327/.442 | 498 AB | 51 XBH | 20 Hr | .185 ISO | 0/0 SB/CS | 74:52 K:BB | .266 BABIP
Still projected as the Blue Jays first basemen of the future (as he was last year too), Cooper was underwhelming in his second take facing Double-A pitching. Blame Brett Wallace for stealing a potential Triple-A cup-of-joe, granted, Cooper didn’t blow away the opposition. His season was still adequate and should still be considered a potential fit at first for his BABIP was unlucky (.266) showing that his slashline could still improve. The power is sufficient and has improved from his 2009 season and the strikeout to walk ratio remains a strong attribute. A 2009 Honorable Mention has become a strong play for 2011. Just wait to see how he handles spring training and the early season. Could be the 2011 Ike Davis.

#2 J.P. Arencibia | C | D.o.B: 1-5-87 | Stats (AAA): .301/.359/.629 | 412 AB | 67 XBH | 32 Hr | .328 ISO | 0/0 SB/CS | 85:35 K:BB | .306 BABIP
Read his Scouting the Unknown article for more expansive coverage. Also, I rated him as the number eight Fantasy Baseball Prospect back in late July. A quick quote from the 2009 blurb for the lazy reader because the Scouting the Unknown article says the same thing at some point, “The power is legit, the strikeouts are scary and the lack of walks is more of a turn off than Joan Rivers. Playing the Pacific Coast League may have inflated his numbers a wee-bit, however, expect to see him in the majors at some point in early summer 2010. Keep expectations in check, but if you need a catcher, plug him in and see what he can do.”

#25 Brad Emaus | 2B | D.o.B: 3-28-86 | Stats (AA/AAA): .290/.397/.476 | 445 AB | 50 XBH | 15 Hr | .186 ISO | 13/2 SB/CS | 69:81 K:BB | .281 BABIP (AA) .327 BABIP (AAA)
Who knows when another Aaron Hill injury is going to happen, but Emaus may be the beneficiary of said injury. Doesn’t have great tools in any area, but is a savvy player, or if you’re Baseball America, “has high marks for his moxie and approach to the game … a consistent swing and [gap power] … good plate discipline … quality at-bats … was over anxious in 2009 … 10 to 15 homer potential … defense improving.” Sounds like Dustin Pedoria on the high end or Orlando Hudson on the low.

Darin Mastroianni | CF | D.o.B: 8-26-85 | Stats (AA): .301/.390/.398 | 525 AB | 36 XBH | 4 Hr | .097 ISO | 46/10 SB/CS | 96:77 K:BB | .358 BABIP
Looking for steals, waiting for one of the Jays outfielders to be injured or not produce in 2011 (I’m pointing at you Jose), here in your potential Drew Stubbs of 2011. See 2009 blurb, “FROM 2009 (Honorable Mention):.No power to speak of here. Mastroianni is all speed, (70 steals in 85 attempts) and it’s a good thing he keeps the ball on the ground too. If your a firm believer in SAGNOF, then Mastroianni may be someone you steal on the waivers if he gets called up in 2010. But that is a big IF.” That “big IF” is much smaller for the 2011 season, especially if you replace 2010 with 2011. Triple-A is in his future.

#18 Eric Thames | LF | D.o.B: 11-10-86 | Stats (AA): .288/.370/.526 | 496 AB | 58 XBH | 27 Hr | 8/5 SB/CS | 121:50 K:BB | .327 BABIP
His draft stock fell when he tore his quadricep muscle in his right left before the 2008 draft. He has plus bat speed, great plate discipline and a good swing according to Baseball America; he has average speed, an average arm and should play left field because his defense isn’t great. A strong person with a “rock-solid” body helps too. I see an outfielder with the potential to go 30/10 with a solid average (think .275 to .300). Probably won’t get a chance until September to prove himself.

Pitchers
#2 (PHI)Kyle Drabek | RHP | D.o.B: 12-8-87 | Stats (AA): 7.3 K/9 | 3.8 BB/9 | 162 IP | 2.94 ERA | 3.87 FIP | 1.20 WHIP | .7 Hr/9 | 7.0 H/9 | .260 BABIP
I may be rather harsh, but let me be frank to start, Drabek is a great talent with tremendous upside, but he isn’t a flamethrower and won’t draw rave reviews everywhere you look. His 179 innings (including his three major league starts) in 2010 isn’t a red flag when you consider he threw 158 innings in 2009. Pre-season Baseball America ranked Drabek as the 25th overall prospect. Quoting last year’s review, “He possesses a low to mid 90′s fastball (top 95 mph), a sharp and biting curve, and a “work in progress” change-up. Due to the heavy influx of pitchers at the top end of the Jays system (Romero, Rzepczynski, Cecil, Richmond, David Purcey, Shawn Marcum, Dustin McGowan), Drabek wont be rushed. The earliest, June. Most likely, August/September.” I got the ETA right, just wasn’t as excited as the experts. Much the same holds true from this past season, but his curve isn’t just “sharp” and “biting”, it’s “a 70” on the 20-80 scale. Meaning it is tremendous, fantastic, you get the point. I like his potential and he pitched fairly well in his 17 major league innings. Just don’t expect a 10 K/9, something more along the lines of 7.5 K/9 should be more accurate.

#1 Zach Stewart | RHP | D.o.B: 9-28-86 | Stats (AA): 7.0 K/9 | 3.6 BB/9 | 132 1/3 IP | 3.63 ERA | 4.18 FIP | 1.36 WHIP | .9 Hr/9 | 8.6 H/9 | .298 BABIP
From 2009 Minor League Review, “A key component in the Scott Rolen trade, Stewart has a mid 90′s fastball (93-96 mph), a power slider and a “promising” change-up. His fastball has natural sink to it, laminated by his high ground-ball rate (53%).” Rated as the number one prospect in the Jays system before the Halladay trade, Stewart didn’t have a dominating season at Double-A. His numbers were uninspiring. John Sickels said it best in his recap of the Top 50 Pitcher Prospects for 2010 , “I thought he’d do better, but it was still a good season.” I concur. The Reds used him as a reliever with some success, but the Jays want him in the rotation. Should get a shot in the majors at some point in 2011.

#14 Danny Farquhar | RHP | D.o.B: 2-17-87 | Stats (AA): 9.3 K/9 | 4.9 BB/9 | 76 2/3 IP | 3.52 ERA | 4.28 FIP | 1.20 WHIP | .8 Hr/9 | 5.9 H/9 | .239 BABIP
Why reinvent the wheel, from the 2009 Minor League Review, (he was a honorable mention), “Yet another Blue Jays pitcher who works the ground balls (51.6%). I mention Farquhar because … a deadly fastball that sits between 92 and 94 mph, an average curve, and a cutter – and that is just from a three-quarter slot. He also can throw a 89 to 91 mph fastball with tons of action and a “frisbee action” slider from a below-sidearm angle. Used as a starter in college, the Jays like what they see from him as a reliever. Farquhar could become Lord Farquaad of the Jays ‘pen by 2012, and a stellar mid-to-late relief role by 2011.” My humor is lame, but my predictions remain the same, except it’s possible to see him in 2011. His fastball has improved to 93 to 94 mph topping out at 95 to 96 mph. The 89 to 91 mph fastball in the quote is a two-seamer with good sink. All of his pitches have good action. He struggles with control due to the different arm slots.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#4 (PHI) Travis d’Arnaud | C | D.o.B: 2-10-89 | Stats (A+): .259/.315/.411 | 263 AB | 27 XBH | 6 Hr | .152 ISO | 3/1 SB/CS | 63:20 K:BB | .312 BABIP
Not quite the season the Blue Jays brass was hoping for. To quote the 2009 blurb about d’Arnaud because not much has changed besides getting one year older, “A fixture in the Halladay trade, d’Arnaud was the second rated catcher in the Phillies minors behind Lou Marson. D’Arnaud has a good arm, above average catching skills, a gap-power swing … In his first full season, he played fairly well. His average is more like .275 with a normal BABIP, however, that doesn’t mean he’ll blast off next year. He’s good, just a few years away. Plus, the Jays have JP Arencibia.”

#6 (PHI)Anthony Gose | CF | D.o.B: 8-10-90 | Stats (A+ -2 teams): .262/.332/.393 | 512 AB | 40 XBH | 7 Hr | .131 ISO | 45/32 SB/CS | 132:45 K:BB | ~.338 BABIP
Gose was traded straight up for Brett Wallace. His scouting report is unchanged from 2009, “ 60 yards in 6.5 seconds. Plus-plus arm in center. 76 steals … Some scouts think his swing could produce 20 homers in a season, but no time soon. Steals, man, that is what Mr. Gose can provide, and awesome defense.” Much is the same, except managers aren’t going to let him steal when he is caught nearly half the time (45 steals in 77 attempts). The strikeouts are going to become an issue if can’t get on base. He did hit 13 triples to go along with his 20 doubles and seven home runs, showing off his some of the potential power and speed. Double-A is going to be a true test of his abilities. At just 20, there is plenty of time for development. Don’t quit on this youngster like everyone is doing with Fernando Martinez (NYM).

#17 Tyler Pastornicky | SS | D.o.B: 12-13-89 | Stats (A+/AA): .257/.343/.373 | 421 AB | 30 XBH | 9 Hr | .116 ISO | 35/9 SB/CS | 71:55 K:BB | .288 BABIP
He was a late scratch in the Blue Jays 2009 Minor League Review, and this year, I had no choice. Plus, his talents flowed naturally after Anthony Gose. SPEED!. He had 57 Steals in 2009 and 35 this year. He plays good defense, is an above average runner, but lacks power. Could be a top-of-the-order middle infielder. Nothing special, but SAGNOF isn’t supposed to be special.

Pitchers
#5 Henderson Alvarez | RHP | D.o.B: 4-18-90 | Stats (A+): 6.2 K/9 | 2.2 BB/9 | 112 1/3 IP | 4.33 ERA | 3.88 FIP | 1.46 WHIP | .8 Hr/9 | 11 H/9 | .347 BABIP
Alvarez is a groundball pitcher who doesn’t overpower anyone with his 86 to 89 MPH fastball on bad days and a 89 to 92 MPH fastball on his good days, his changeup is his best pitch and it has splitter-like action. He also throws a “three-quarter” breaking ball. He has good command of his pitches, but has little room for error. This past year he seemed to be hittable, albeit slightly unlucky. His strikeouts are vomit-inducing. Overall, Alvarez still has a couple years until the majors are truly in his sight.

Joel Carreno | RHP | D.o.B: 3-7-87 | Stats (A+): 11.3 K/9 | 2.0 BB/9 | 137 2/3 IP | 3.73 ERA | 2.36 FIP | 1.29 WHIP | .5 Hr/9 | 9.0 H/9 | .392 BABIP
I couldn’t find a detailed scouting report, but the strikeouts are awesome, the command is great, the FIP is nearly a full run and a half better than his ERA and he was tremendously unlucky (.392 BABIP). Could be a surprise ranked prospect in 2011 scouting handbooks.

Toronto Blue Jays 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America (2009)
2009 (19) | 2008 (25) | 2007 (25) | 2006 (25) | 2005 (15) | 2004 (8)

Record of Major and Minor League Team(s)
MLB: [75 – 87] AL East
AAA: [71 – 73] Pacific Coast League
AA: [64 – 78] Eastern League
A+: [67 – 67] Florida League
A: [54 – 84] Midwest League
A(ss): [29 – 49] New York – Pennsylvania League
R: [30-28] Gulf League

The Run Down
The recent trade of Roy Halladay has made this piece a bit more interesting. Clearly, the Blue Jays are in “rebuilding” mode. They definitely received good talent in return, and especially [near] major league ready talent – namely Wallace and Drabek. With Adam Lind breaking out, Aaron Hill finally performing up to expectations, Travis Snider holding his own in the majors, Shawn Marcum set to return from injury (Tommy John), as is Dustin McGowan (bum shoulder and knee), the Blue Jays may be better than expected. However, there is a rather large “IF” on each of those players. Granted, the Jays have restricted mobility in the free agent market to improve their team, but there are a few players that may make an impact in the majors in 2010. Additionally, the 2009 starting rotation saw four rookies make large contributions (Romero, Cecil, Rzepczynski, and Richmond) and one that called up mid-season (Brad Mills) to keep your eyes on. (Important to note, none of the graduating rookie pitchers increased their innings pitched by more than 30 innings.) Even with that many rookies, replacing Halladay’s presence, innings and experience is going to be extremely difficult to find. Not wanting to compare, but the Blue Jays are going to be relying on youngsters much like the Florida Marlins do in 2010.

Graduating Prospects
#1- OF – Travis Snider; #3 – P – Brett Cecil; #8 – P – Ricky Romero; #9 – P – Marc Rzepczynski; #20 – P – Scott Richmond

Arizona Fall League Players -Phoenix Desert Dogs
Pitchers – Reidier Gonzalez, #15 Robert Ray
Hitters – (C) AJ Jimenez, (2B) #10 Brad Emaus, (OF) Adam Loewen

Players of Interest
Due to the recent trade, the rankings before a player, unless otherwise noted, are the Blue Jays rankings.

Hitters
#2 (St.L) Brett Wallace | 1B/3B | AA/AAA | 22 | .293/.367/.455 | 532 AB | 26 2B | 20 HR | .162 ISO | 116:47 K:BB | .338 BABIP | 51.7 GB% | 19.6 LD% | 28.7 FB% | .9.4 IF/F
Traded again this year, Wallace’s defense is now coming into question. With Edwin Encarnacion manning third and Lyle Overbay manning first, I am not sure what the Jays plan for Wallace is going to be. Back in August, Scouting the Unknown article detailed his specifics out. Don’t be surprised to watch him play in left field (with Snider manning the other corner). Then again, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play half a season at Triple-A first before a June call up.

#7 (PHI) Travis d’Arnaud | C | A | 20 | .255/.319/.419 | 482 AB | 38 2B | 13 HR | .164 ISO | 75:41 K:BB | .279 BABIP | .336 wOBA | 40.2 GB% | 14.5 LD% | 45.3 FB%
A fixture in the Halladay trade, d’Arnaud was the second rated catcher in the Phillies minors behind Lou Marson. D’Arnaud has a good arm, above average catching skills, a gap-power swing, and quoting Baseball America, “… could become trade fodder if he continues his offensive development [due to Marson].” Well, that’s exactly what he became. In his first full season, he played fairly well. His average is more like .275 with a normal BABIP, however, that doesn’t mean he’ll blast off next year. He’s good, just a few years away. Plus, the Jays have JP Arencibia …

#2 JP Arencibia | C | AAA | 23 | .236/.284/.444 | 466 AB | 32 2B | 21 HR | .208 ISO | 114:26 K:BB | .269 BABIP | .316 wOBA | 30.2 GB% | 17 LD% | 52.5 FB%
Arencibia was considered the catcher of the future, but with the d’Arnaud acquisition and the signing of John Buck, that may be in question. His slash line is destroyed by a low batting average on balls in play (.269), albeit he hit a ton of fly balls (52.5%). The power is legit, the strikeouts are scary and the lack of walks is more of a turn off than Joan Rivers. Playing the Pacific Coast League may have inflated his numbers a wee bit, however, expect to see him in the majors at some point in early summer 2010. Keep expectations in check, but if you need a catcher, plug him in and see what he can do. It’s worth a chance over anyone not named Mauer, McCann, or Martinez.

Brian Dopirak | 1B | AA/AAA | 25 | .316/.371/.549 | 546 AB | 42 2B | 27 HR | .232 ISO | 119:48 K:BB | .366 BABIP | 43.5 GB% | 21.1 LD% | 35.4 FB%
Not a sexy prospect by any means, Dopirak was acquired in 2008 from the Cubs where he couldn’t hit the moon if it was falling, exploded for the Jays. He was recently added to the 40-man roster, meaning no one could take him in the Rule-5 draft, which they easily could have. Not that first base is an extremely weak point for the Jays, but Overbay isn’t necessarily locked to keep his spot. Dopirak could provide some sneaky power in the Jays line-up in 2010.

Pitchers
#5 (PHI) Kyle Drabek | RHP | A+/AA | 21 | 8.5 K/9 | 2.8 BB/9 | 158 IP | 3.19 ERA | 3.26 FIP | 1.21 WHIP | .5 HR/9 | .305 BABIP | 43.6 GB% | 12 LD% | 39.4 FB%
It was either him or Dominic Brown (and possibly Happ, but don’t get me started) that the Jays could’ve received in the Halladay trade. Coming of Tommy John surgery in 2007, Drabek pitched his first full season in the minors (2008 he pitched in 54 innings). He possesses a low to mid 90′s fastball (top 95 mph), a sharp and biting curve, and a “work in progress” change-up. Due to the heavy influx of pitchers at the top end of the Jays system (Romero, Rzepczynski, Cecil, Richmond, David Purcey, Shawn Marcum and Dustin McGowan), Drabek wont be rushed. The earliest, June. Most likely, August/September.

Henderson Alvarez | RHP | A | 19 | 6.7 K/9 | 1.4 BB/9 | 124 1/3 IP | 3.47 ERA | 2.43 FIP | 1.13 WHIP | .1 HR/9 | .307 BABIP | 51.4 GB% | 10.4 LD% | 33.8 FB%
An extreme ground ball pitcher, Alvarez is the Jays top Venezuelan prospect. He has a low 90′s fastball that tops at 94, a slurve and an average at best change up. Considered to have a power arm, Alvarez still needs to harness some of his talent and not just “throw.” However, it seems like this year he has figured it out. Not a great strikeout pitcher, but his control is stellar. Look for him to reach Double-A in 2010 and possibly a September call up if he has no injuries.

#15(CIN) Zach Stewart | RHP | A+/AA/AAA | 22 | 8.0 K/9 | 2.7 | 105 IP | 1.89 ERA | 3.04 FIP | 1.31 WHIP | .334 BABIP | 53 GB% | 21 LD% | 20.1 FB%
A key component in the Scott Rolen trade, Stewart has a mid 90′s fastball (93-96 mph), a power slider and a “promising” change-up. His fastball has natural sink to it, laminated by his high ground-ball rate (53%). Not to many hitters put good wood on his pitches. I would imagine Stewart to start in Triple-A this year as he didn’t throw consistently at each stop (he played A+ and AA for the Reds).

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
#5 David Cooper | 1B | AA | 22 | .258/.340/.389 | 473 AB | 32 2B | 10 HR | .131 ISO | 95:59 K:BB | .302 BABIP | .335 wOBA | 42.4 GB% | 17.5 LD% | 40.1 FB%
Didn’t have a great year. However, he is the projected starting first baseman by 2012 according to Baseball America. Keep an eye on him, he’s a better hitter (strikezone/plate discpline) than his numbers lead one to believe.

Johermyn Chavez | LF | A | 20 | .283/.346/.474 | 22 2B | 21 HR | .191 ISO | 10/6 SB | 133:40 K:BB | .350 BABIP | .371 wOBA | 40.4 GB% | 10.3 LD% | 49.3 FB%
The low line-drive hitting percentage (10.3%) and high strikeouts (133) lead me to believe that he won’t repeat these type of numbers again in 2010 at High-A or Double-A. He is one of the Venezuelans I was talking about earlier, and he does have the potential and talent to prove my prediction wrong.

Darin Mastroianni | CF/LF | A+/AA | 23 | .297/.398/.364 | 478 AB | 21 2B | 1 HR | .067 ISO | 70/15 SB/CS | 83:76 K:BB | .335 BABIP | 50.2 GB% | 11.1 LD% | 38 FB%
No power to speak of here. Mastroianni is all speed, and it’s a good thing he keeps the ball on the ground too. If you’re a firm believer in SAGNOF, then Mastroianni may be someone you steal on the waivers if he gets called up in 2010. But that is a big IF.

Pitchers
Tim Collins | LHP | A+/AA | 19 | 13.5 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 77 1/3 IP | 2.91 ERA | 2.34 FIP | 1.22 WHIP | .337 BABIP | 40 GB% | 16.2 LD% | 36.8 FB%
He hasn’t pitched many innings (150) in the minors in the last two years, but Collins is in the mold of a reliever. He should start at Double-A again this year. If he pitches well again in 2010, he could be a sneaky sleeper in 2011.

#14 Danny Farquhar | RHP | A+/AA | 22 | 10.6 K/9 | 5.9 BB/9 | 62 2/3 IP | 1.87 ERA | 3.17 FIP | 1.31 WHIP | .277 BABIP | 51.6 GB%| 12.3 LD% | 31.6 FB%
Yet another Blue Jays pitcher who works the ground balls (51.6%). I mention Farquhar because he has a killer last name and a deadly fastball that sits between 92 and 94 mph, an average curve, and a cutter – and that is just from a three-quarter slot. He also can throw a 89 to 91 mph fastball with tons of action and a “frisbee action” slider from a below-sidearm angle. Used as a starter in college, the Jays like what they see from him as a reliever. Farquhar could become Lord Farquaad of the Jays ‘pen by 2012, and a stellar mid-to-late relief role by 2011.

With ace-of-the-staff years dating back to 2002, Roy Halladay was the franchise.  Well, the Blue Jays front office gave the Blue Jays fans the kanye shrug.  While most pitchers go from good to great or great to mindblowing in the NL, Halladay will have to deal with Citizens Bank.  He doesn’t have much history to go on there, but it obviously favors hitters more than Rogers Centre, where Halladay had a 3.23 career ERA.  I think we can nullify that park disadvantage with all the weaker lineups and the pitchers he’ll get to face.  In his career interleague play, he has a 17-8 record, 3.02 ERA. 1.14 WHIP and 165 Ks in 220 and a third innings.  Sounds like a solid projection for Halladay’s 2010, just add twenty more Ks.  Anyway, here’s some more deals that went down yesterday and what they mean for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Cliff Lee – Heads to the Mariners.  If there’s one place a pitcher shouldn’t mind going, it’s Safeco.  (Safeco, Petco, Metco… Throw out the humidor and just rename the park Coorsco.)  Lee benefited from his move to the NL (though his ERA says different), but it wasn’t like he was languishing in the AL prior to the trade.  With the Indians last year through July, his ERA was 3.14.  His K-rate in the NL last year bumped up his overall strikeouts, so we shouldn’t expect more than a 7 K/9.  Still good for a mid-3 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 160 Ks with the Mariners.

John Lackey – Heads to Bahston.  Now Boston reporters can misspell his name Larkey and it would be pronounced the same way.  If only his first name were Nomar, then it would sound like no malarkey.  Larkey will be immediately overrated in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.  He hasn’t been able to get over 200 innings since 2007 and his K-rate has been dropping for a few years now.  For those out there that say he’ll now get more wins, the Angels weren’t exactly a 50 win team and he’s had only 12 and 11 wins the last two years, respectively.  In 2010, I’d put him down for a high-3 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 130 Ks in 165 innings.

Michael Taylor – When I was deciding who would get a 2010 fantasy baseball rookie post, I looked at Michael Taylor.  He fell short because I couldn’t figure out what value he was going to have on the Phillies.  There was just no room for him in the outfield.  No longer a problem.  Taylor heads to the Jays.  Lind slots into the DH spot and Taylor goes into left.  Or someone can just make Vernon Wells glue.  Taylor will be 24 in a few days  — go to Benihana for your birthday, they give you free pineapple chunks — and he has done all he needs to do in the minors.  Last year split between Double and Triple A, Taylor went 20/21 with a .320/.395/.549 line.  It’s not far fetched to think he could be an early front runner for the 2011 AL ROY award and a 15/15 candidate.  Assuming Taylor’s penciled into the the lead-off spot, I’d give him a projection of 85/12/60/.280/15 with upside from there.  Definitely worth owning in leagues 12 team and deeper.

Phillippe Aumont – Stephen went over the Phillippe Aumont fantasy.  He goes to Philly.  Or, more appropriately, Philli.  (For those keeping score at home, Phils get Halladay, the M’s top pitching prospect, Aumont, and Tyson Gillies — more on him in a second.  M’s get Lee.  Jays get D’Arnaud, Taylor and the Phils top pitching prospect, Kyle Drabek and/or Happ.  As of press time, this wasn’t all entirely clear.)  Aumont will be given the opportunity to make the club as bullpen help, but probably won’t be up until midseason at the earliest.  He has no clear cut path to the Phils closer job yet.  But wait until Lidge pitches.

Tyson Gillies – Elias Sports Bureau said there’s more L’s in this trade than any other trade in the history of baseball.  Actually, they didn’t say that; they’re in the Antilles on vacation.  As mentioned above, Gillies heads to the Phils.  Gillies fantasy prospects were broken down already.  He’s at least a year away unless the Phils are hit by major injuries.

Travis D’Arnaud – Sent from the Phils.  He’s still at least a year or two away, but he could be the catcher of the future for the Jays.  The catcher of the present is…

John Buck – Evidently, they’re replacing a real cowboy (Doc Halladay) with one of the midnight variety.  Buck has some cheap pop and nothing else for AL-Only leagues.

Mike Cameron – Signs with Boston and signals that the Sawx are done waiting for Bay or Holliday.  Then again, they have four competent outfielders when most clubs don’t have two so they could still stuff their cheeks with a few more acorns.  Cameron’s presence will be no present for Jeremy Hermida.  See what I did there?  Hermida’s value takes the biggest hit.  He could end up doing nothing but platooning against tough righties.  That’s assuming J.D. Drew stays healthy and, as they said in China in the 1400s, assuming makes an ass out of you and Ming. Cameron hasn’t stolen 20+ bases since ’06 and at 37 he probably won’t get there again.  He’ll likely bat at the bottom of the order, which will help with RBIs.  He’s a decent 5th outfielder in 12 team leagues for teams that need assurance over upside.

Hideki Matsui – To the Angels.  In his youth, Hideki came to be called Godzilla because of monstrous homers and acne.  Well, he’s still got the acne.  I’d avoid him in fantasy as much for his yawnstipating numbers as for his Utility-only eligibility.

Jason Kendall – Royals get him for two years.  Much like a Ken doll, Kendall has no bat.