Fantasy Baseball Advice

We’ve gone over whether or not you should grab a starter early, Rudy’s fantasy baseball strategy says sure, why not?  My fantasy baseball strategy says not so much.  Whichever strategy you subscribe to, you’re still going to need some late round value.  The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  As I used to call Cliff Notes in college, this is a companion piece.  If you click on some of the player’s names, you’ll see whole posts dedicated to these doodes with 2009 fantasy baseball projections.  Anyway, here’s some starters to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Manny Parra – I hesitated to put Kershaw on this list because of his walks, but the same could be said about Parra, and, in a roundabout way, I just did.  The deciding factor was Kershaw is a bit more expensive at drafts than Parra.

Aaron Heilman – If he gets the 5th starter job or the 6th starter job and then Harden gets injured, Heilman’s a guy to keep an eye on.  Why aren’t you looking at me when I talk to you? I’ve got an eye on Heilman, woman!

Wandy Rodriguez – Imagine 50 Cent in your fantasy league, “I’ll take you to the Wandy shop, his road starts will make you drop…” Yes, I heard Rodriguez strained his left intercostal muscle (isn’t that the road that runs along the Florida coast?), but it’s too early for me to jump off the Wand-wagon.

Chris Young – After he returned from having his face rearranged by a Pujols liner, he had a 2.38 ERA in September.

John Maine – I know what you’re thinking when you see Maine on this list.  You’re thinking I’m trying to get you to fall for the ol’ banana-in-the-tailpipe.  You have to ignore a lot of last season for Maine, he was pitching injured.  If healthy, he could be a strong #3 fantasy starter.

John Danks – Doesn’t seem like he’s getting the pub of some guys, but he should be.  One of the few AL starters I’m targeting late.

Randy Johnson – He’s not the maverick he once was.  He might only pitch 15 – 20 starts, but has shown he can be effective for those 15 – 20 starts.

Jeremy Guthrie – The other AL starter.  I’ve talked about JG so much, I might need a Guthrie jersey.  Someone brought up something in the comments the other day (Not sure what post or what comment it was.  We get a lot of comments, ya’ll.)  about Guthrie’s FIP and BABIP.  It’s true, Guthrie may regress a little this year.  I have him projected for 12-10/3.90/1.25/130 in 2009.  Those are not #2 starter numbers.  Again, for those reading over your shoulder, do not think you’re snagging a #2 starter in the last rounds.   I talk a lot about Guthrie, but he’s just a solid endgame guy in deep leagues.

Aaron Cook – Almost as boring as his name.  Easily the most unexciting name on this list.  Also, one of the steadiest names on the list.  Those in H2H leagues want consistent, Cook can provide it.   In a time when we seem to be losing everything, our economy, our homes, our jobs, it’s up to us to stand up and be counted, make our frustrated voices heard.  For those who want reliability and street cleaning twice a week, vote Aaron Cook.

Josh Johnson – A good K rate and his name almost sounds like the porn star, Gosh Johnson.

Want to keep your post-draft roster from being full of you-know-what? Work Razzball’s BRAN (Balanced Roster After Nine) strategy into your diet so your roster doesn’t turn out irregular!

I know I could spend an extra 20 minutes brainstorming an acronym that’s more alpha-male but combining  power with our strategy’s high fiber content makes me flash back to the old SNL Colon Blow commercials.

Okay, I’m done with the crap(py) metaphors.

The BRAN strategy is for snake drafts with only one catcher (proponents of two catcher leagues are the real tools of ignorance if you ask me…).  It applies for 10 or 12 team mixed leagues.

There’s no doubt you’ll find some differences between the fantasy baseball draft strategies of blogmate Grey and myself – e.g., he says not to draft a 1st tier closer where I recommend it.  How boring of a site would we be if we agreed on everything?    Just goes to show that there are multiple strategies to success in fantasy baseball and that you have to find the one that best fits your drafting and FA pickup skills .

Anyway, here are the objectives of the BRAN strategy:
1) Get as much value as possible out of our first 9 picks which means keeping flexibility to take advantage of bargains.

2) Remain balanced enough w/ your roster to take advantage of bargains at any position in rounds 10-25 – i.e., if you stack up on OFs in the 1st 9 rounds, you have to ignore OF bargains in favor of backfilling other positions (like pitcher).

Here is the plan:
In the first 9 rounds, fill 6 set positions (1B, 2 OF, 2 SP, RP) and 3 ‘flex’ picks that can be used on the best values across any position.  See below for the position breakdown – note that OF (2/3) means draft at least 2 OFs and no more than 3 OFs.  Also, any round projections for players is based on 10-team leagues.

C (0/1) – I hate picking a catcher in the first 9 rounds because 1) the stat difference between a top 3 catcher and the last drafted catcher are the smallest of any position, 2) no one is going to take an additional catcher so I know I’ll get at least the last catcher on my draft list and 3) catchers seem more likely to get injured.  If you’re going to take one, aim to take someone going at least a round later than they should go.

1B (1/2) -As my blogmate Grey points out in his Top 20 1st Basemen post, there is a top tier of about 8-10 1Bs (depending on how you feel about Youk and Votto, though Youk will get snagged earlier for 3B).  The first 8 of these guys are going to get snagged in the first 4 rounds (Pujols, Howard, Cabrera, Teixeira, Berkman, Fielder, Morneau, A-Gonz).  High-ceiling guys like Votto and Chris Davis will get picked one or more rounds early because owners w/o 1Bs will panic.  Solid vets like D-Lee and Delgado can get snagged any time as a team’s cornerman.  My advice is if there is a 1B at a good value in the first 4 rounds, grab him.  If a top-tier 1B is still hanging around in rounds 6-9, grab him for cornerman.

2B (0/1) – The same deal applies for 2B and SS so I’ll just write it once.  Middle infielders picked in the first 9 rounds almost always turn out below the expected value at that draft position.  Last year, Ian Kinsler was the only one out of 10 MIs drafted in Rounds 3-8 that provided above-average value (and, yes, that factors in position scarcity).  I called this before last season in a middling infielder post.  I’d look to use one of your 3 Flex Picks on either a 2B or SS and then grab the other and a MI in rounds 10-25.  After catcher, I’d say these are the best positions to punt.

SS (0/1) – See 2B.

3B (0/1) -This is a strange year for 3B.  A-Rod and Wright rule the category now that two of the top four no longer qualify (Cabrera, Braun).  No argument w/ them as your 1st round pick.  I don’t think there’s value to be found until Round 4 (Aramis Ramirez).  Atkins could be a steal at Round 5/6.  I’d avoid jumping at Chris Davis and Youk unless the value is there based on Marcel or CHONE projections – e.g., don’t believe Bill James’s projections on Chris Davis and assume Youkilis regresses after a career year.

OF (2/3) – Since the BRAN strategy is all about balance, I suggest breaking the draft into 5 segments and aim to get one per segment.  Think 1 OF in Rounds 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21+.  If you can get two high-value OFs in a five round segment, go for it.  There is no reason to have more than 3 OFs in the 1st 9 rounds though.

SP (2/3) – Similar to OFs.  There are some that love to punt SPs until Round 10 or so.  Seems unnecessary to me.  I’d aim to get at least one SP in the first 5 rounds and another one before Round 9.  Realize there will be a round or two between the 3rd and the 6th where a number of SPs are picked – get ahead of that wave to get the most value.

RP (1/2) – My ideal closer pick is something like the 3rd-5th closer off the board as detailed in this closer post from last year.  Aim for a closer in Round 5-7 that can be your foundation (and help with ERA/WHIP/Ks).  If a top tier closer makes it to Rounds 7-9 and you still have Flex picks, go for it and then you can focus on stocking up on OF and SP in rounds 10-12.

DH (0/1) – In a league with just one UTIL slot, a DH really hurts roster flexibility.  Determine what fair value is for a DH and then wait an extra 2 rounds before drafting.

The other day I went over my fantasy baseball strategy for snake drafts.  Lots of the strategy there also applies here.  If you ask me — and you kinda did ask me by reading this shizz — auction drafts are where it’s at, yo!   You get in a room with your best fantasy baseball buddies.  The guys you haven’t seen since last year’s draft.  The guys you don’t want to see until next year’s draft.  One guy, and there’s always one, has his phone on vibrate just in case the missus calls about little Petey.  He’s got the flu, ya know.  Then you have the guy who will go the extra dollar for (fill-in favorite player from his favorite team).  You have the guy who brings only Cheetos and then asks the host for some cola every 30 minutes.  Then, finally, you have the guy who made plans at 5PM and begins to yell at everyone at 4PM that they’re taking too long.  And, it always turns out, this day is the best day of the year.  Auction draft day is better than your wedding day.  As for online auction drafts, they’re not as fun.  Anyway, here’s some tried and true tips to help you through your auction draft.

1. Early in the draft, throw out guys that you know you have no interest in that will cost others a lot.

Say David Ortiz snuck into a 21 and under club with Esmailyn Gonzalez’s fake ID and took your baby sister home.  Now you refuse to draft him.  So the first name you should nominate is Ortiz and let others overspend on him.  This is not to say you should let him go for cheap.  You don’t want high-priced pitching?  Nominate Johan.  You think Kinsler’s overrated?  Nominate him.  You get the idea.  Moving on…

2. Go the extra dollar if you really want someone.

When you get to the end of the auction, no one has any flippin’ idea what they spent to get a guy.  If you want Alexis Rios, go the extra buck or two.  You really need a closer and Hanrahananan is the only one left?  Go the extra dollar or two.  Get the players you need.

3. You want to be “rich” with auction money, especially at the end of the draft.

You won’t always have the most money at the draft, but, whenever possible, you want to.  The more money you have A) The better leverage you have attaining any guy you may want. B) You can get great buys late in the draft when no one else has any money.  Invariably, someone will throw out Elijah Dukes for a dollar (or some player that they think they can sneak through).  Then you get Dukes for $2 and everyone in the draft room groans, wishing they still had some money.  At the end of the draft, you want to be like the little tuxedoed guy from Monopoly.

4. Decent catchers and closers are even easier to acquire in auctions.

In a snake draft, you never know when the Doumit, Iannetta, Chris Perez, Capps or whoever is going to go.  The beauty of the auction is you can have anyone.  In my experience, you should wait until most of the teams have filled up their closers or catcher(s) slot then you nominate some one dollar beauts.  I’ll take Hanrahanananan for $1.  Sweet!

5. Keep track of who other people want.

The beauty of the auction is you know exactly what everyone else is thinking.  If Joe Schmohawk goes to $12 on Furcal and you get him for $13, keep JS in mind when you’re looking to trade Furcal after his hot April.  If someone groans when you get McLouth, keep it in mind.  Unless it’s the same guy who’s been eating nothing but Cheetos and cola for ten hours.  Then it might just be gas.

With the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings in the bag, we turn to strategy.  Did you know your very own mustachioed ‘pert has a fantasy baseball draft strategy?  It’s called Performance Enhancing Draft Strategy or PEDS.  As you can see from that link, it’s in its 2nd year of existence.  With a new year comes some changes.  The first big change, I lost the 2nd -ing.  Not sure why I was dropping gerunds like they were “tic-tacs,” but I’m a changed man.  I was younger then, almost a full year.  Let’s face it, I was naïve.  That draft strategy was like amateur hour.  And this is the first time I’m admitting this to anyone, but my cousin wrote the whole thing.  I’m not going to tell you my cousin’s name or why I had him write it.  I was young and stupid.  Not as young or as stupid as I was the day or weeks preceding that draft strategy post, but young and naïve and stupid nevertheless.  Luckily, I got all of my young, amateur hour, stupidness out in that one post and I was able to go back to being a fantasy baseball blogger without the assistance of my cousin, Tom.  Okay, I am telling you his name.  But that’s the last you’re ever going to hear from him or me on him or him on me.  We’re through, Tom and I.  This is 100% my fantasy baseball draft strategy and some that I cribbed from other people.  Enjoy.

1.  Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks.

No Johan.  No Lincecum.  No Javier Vazquez if you’re a diehard CHONEr.  They’re fantastic.  I love them all.  If I had a pet guinea pig, I’d name him Joham.  These sums-a-snitches give you the value of a 1st or 2nd rounder.  They do.  I said it.  The problem is the loss of one of your 1st two hitters is really difficult to bounce back from.  You, son, are putting yourself in a hole.  A hole?  Yes, you are.  The absence of Utley or Teixeira or Beltran or whoever is too great.  Recognize!  Or not.  Your call.

2. Never take a closer in the first tier.

This is a tough one for some people.  I’m going to be you for a brief moment.  Me as you, “Hey, everyone’s starting to take closers in the fifth round.  There goes Papelbon, Nathan, Rivera, Lidge… Wait, this has a name!  I need to look it up in my fantasy baseball glossary… I knew it!  This is a closer run!  I have to take K-Rod with my next pick!  And why am I not wearing pants?!”  See what happened there?  You done got swept up.  You did.  You got swept up in a closer run.  Ignore everyone who takes closers.  You don’t need a top tier one.  You barely need a 2nd tier one.  Grab some schmohawks later that will get saves, because, as we all know, SAGNOF.

3. Have your offense squared away before the final rounds and never take an offensive bench player.

As appealing as Ryan Church seems on your bench, it’s poppycock.  You’re not going to hold onto these late round offense guys anyway.  You’re going to get to the first week of the season and you’re going to wonder why you have Jose Guillen on your bench.  Instead of an offensive bench player, grab a middle reliever who seems like he has a good chance of taking over for the incumbent closer.  Or grab a starter.

4. When deep into a position, take a flier on upside.

Nobody in the history of fantasy baseball has ever won a league by playing it safe in the late rounds.  In 1995, I tried drafting Mike Greenwell as my fifth outfielder, just didn’t work.  A darn fine year by Klesko wasted!  You play it safe in the early rounds.  You take solid contributors early.  You take fliers late.  You’re looking at either Crapolanco or Ian Stewart for your MI spot, who do you choose?  Pierzynski or Saltymochachino?  Valerie Harper or Sandy Duncan?  You get the picture.

5. When in doubt, draft your second, third and fourth starters from NL teams.

Self-explanatory.  No DH, pitchers hitting, weaker offenses.  They bunt in the NL!  So when choosing between Greinke and Lowe, go Lowe.  Between Kershaw and Baker, go Kershaw.  Instead of chewing gum, chew bacon!

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship.  PEDS is so easy, it should be illegal.  You’re welcome.

As some of you know, we developed our own Player Rater methodology called Point Shares about a year ago. Since then, it’s been one big poontrain….zooming past Statgeek Station. Perhaps it’s because my hat and eyewear aren’t goofy enough?

Anyway, we’ve done some informal comparisons in the past w/ ESPN but – after having a prolonged, dorktastic debate on another blog – I decided to take it one step further.  I created a test where I pitted our Point Shares against two other player raters:  ESPN and RotoTimes.

The test went like this:  Create 10 random 10 team leagues and calculate the standings using the real stats.  Then do the same using the rating points for each of the services (so if you add up the ESPN HR player rater points for each team, the one with the most points gets a 10 in HR).  The team point totals calculated by the player raters is compared to the point totals from using the real stats and we added up all the differences (so if the real points total was 70 and the player rater projected 68, it’s worth 2 points).  The lower the point total the better.

Before we go into the results, it’s worth noting that this test puts our Point Shares at a disadvantage.  Why?  Our methodology factors in position and projected team standings so that you can use it to directly estimate the impact of a trade or draft pick.  We adjust our ratings by crediting points against the average found at the player’s position instead of the average hitter.  All stats equal, we know that a catcher will be much more valuable than a 1st baseman (why else would people draft Russ Martin and V-Mart in the 3rd round last year?).  Geovany Soto and Justin Morneau both hit 23 HRs.  While RotoTimes and ESPN ignore position and credit each with the same number of points, we have a 0.5 difference.  This is saying that – assuming you fill the rest of the rosters up with average players – owning Soto will give you a 0.5 advantage in HR points vs. owning Morneau in a 10-team league.

But a test where you just add up rosters takes this out of the equation.  You could conceivably be perfect just by creating a ‘rating point’ completely proportional to the real total.  So 20 vs. 30 HRs could be worth .2 and .3 points or 2 and 3 points, etc.  Will those numbers help determine the value of 20 vs. 30 HRs?  Not really.

Okay, with that said, the results of the test are as follows (if you want to see the spreadsheet, click here – warning: it’s messy).  Out of 100 teams, the total points off by the Player Raters was:

RotoTimes – 112
Razzball Point Shares – 143
ESPN – 152

Our Point Shares were the most accurate for 3 of the 10 leagues while RotoTimes claimed at least a share of 1st in the other 7 (ESPN tied them 3 times).

At a category level, I performed correlation tests between the ‘real’ standings and those of the player raters.  100% would be perfect.

As you can see, Point Shares held up pretty well to ESPN and RotoTimes despite taking on the extra burden of factoring in position and tying it to expected point gains/losses in the standings.  The test did shine light on some improvements we can make on pitcher counting stats (W, SV, K) – note the higher correlation we have on ERA/WHIP because we can directly tie it to IP.

Final summary:

1) RotoTimes is the most accurate of the three.  Combined with the facts that you can both customize the rankings based on league size, categories, roster size, etc. and they provide $ estimates, we’d say this is the best pure ranking tool.

2) Point Shares have proven to be in the same league as these other player raters.  Given the extra utility of Point Shares because it directly estimates the impact on team points of player moves, we’d say our Point Shares are the most useful of the three.

3) ESPN, while not the ‘testwide leader’, did pretty well – especially in hitting stats.  Their biggest pure weakness is ERA/WHIP as it would appear that they don’t factor in IP like Razzball (and, we assume, RotoTimes).  But we’d say their biggest total weakness is that their player points mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.  They are arbitrary numbers that could be used to rank players but not to estimate their value in the standings or worth at the draft table.  They do a good job, though, at keeping it updated throughout the year…