Some people will tell you Giancarlo Stanton‘s plate discipline has improved while in the majors and that his comps suggest further reduction in K% and growth in BB%. Most will boast he’s one of a Lilliputian handful of players with a legitimate shot at 40+ HR and that he has room to improve on his power. Many will point to the improved lineup around him as RBI and R opportunities waiting to sustain your fantasy team like mana (or homers) from heaven. Some will note his career BABIP is high, but that it’s because he’s got plus speed for a 6-5, 235 pound hunk of beef and can chip in a few SBs. While I’ve never seen a steak plow through a catcher or slide willingly onto my plate, I can tell you the majority of these people are right about Giancarlo Stanton.
What other people probably will NOT do, is SHOW you what Stanton can do and how freakin’ cool his shizz is. Haha! HA! Sorry, I lost it for a second. Below is a diagram of Giancarlo Stanton’s HRs from 2010 and 2011 based on data from hittrackeronline.com and park info from the interwebs. The Marlins Park walls are outlined, along with foul lines, distance tickers, the whole shebang… The light colored dots are dongs from 2010, the fully opaque dots 2011 bombs. The blue dots are away dingers, the red dots home, homers on the range in Sun Life Stadium, and the annoying little piggy on TV went “Wee, whee, whee!” all the way back into your memory. Wait for it…
Ain’t that a pretty cupcake with little, patriotic jimmies on top? As I’ve commented before, the new Marlins Park is roughly comparable to Petco in physical dimension (read: BIG). I’ve not seen official documentation of the wall heights, but from the photos it sure looks like more than 8 feet, unless your tape uses Stanton feet. It appears to be mostly around a dozen human feet, but slopes up from the right side power alley to as high as 20. Where? Right out in the deepest part of center by the wacky, leaping Marlin homer sculpture. While we can’t be sure what effect the wind (or lack thereof) may have when the roof’s open (or closed), we can get a rough idea how he might have fared playing in this new park.
In 2010, there’s one that probably would have been an out to left in the new park. The others look like they should have been smooth sailing. In 2011, we see one more likely out to left, while the duo to straight away center probably would’ve been doubles. Another pair are pretty close on the lower walls to left and right, but the rest are golden with no Teal Monster staring down left center.
All in all, he might’ve lost as many HRs as Antonio Alfonseca can count on one hand; a few doubled down and a few loud outs. He also pulled less in 2011, so that could be trouble for center field shots. But, and in Miami you’ll see lots of those, you’ll also notice the darker dots trend further out than the lighter ones. If the majority of these people and me are right about Giancarlo, I’m pretty certain we’ll get to see wacky, leaping marlins aplenty in 2012.
Head-to-Head, or H2H if you’re into abbreviations that look like R&B groups, doesn’t change a lot from our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings. There are 300 billion suns in the Milky Way galaxy. There are 100s of billions of galaxies in the universe. There are at least 256,000 planets exactly like Earth. Yet, there’s one Albert Pujols. (Though Palbert Ujols on Planet Crimea is pretty good too.) The strategy to play H2H changes. You aren’t hoping Lind hits 30 homers by October, but whether or not he’ll hit two homers on Sunday or if you should sit him to try and win steals. It’s all about the match-ups, y’all! So you want to build a team that can match up well with any other team. (FYI, I’ve gone over this stuff before, but some of you might need a pine tree refresher hung from your rear view.) Anyway, let’s look at some H2H fantasy baseball draft strategy:
1. Avoid guys that are prone to nagging injuries.
This is not to say a guy who is DL’d. They go on the DL and that’s fine because then you can replace them. Nagging injuries? Whole different bailiwick. You put Rickie Weeks on an H2H team and you wanna strangle someone. Hopefully, not the guy sitting behind you wearing biker shorts and eating an apple. Go ahead, look behind you. Yeah, that’s me. What’s up? Since H2H is played on a week-to-week basis, you can’t afford to take many goose eggs as a player nurses his hammy day-to-day. BTW, I once nursed a hammy and everyone kept asking me why I was breastfeeding a pig.
2. Don’t punt anything, but don’t buy steal-only guys.
What’s Bourn or Nyjer Morgan et al going to get you? 2 steals per week? They’re not going to win you steals. So you’re going to get 3 steals from Bourn one week, your opponent is going to get 5 steals from his whole team and you’re going to lose steals anyway. Or you’re not going to get anything from the aforementioned et al’s then you’re going to lose that week too. You just lost two weeks and the season hasn’t even started yet. See what those steal-only guys get you? That doesn’t mean to punt these categories. It means draft a balanced team. Guys that will get you speed and power. Then if the weekend rolls around and you’re within breathing distance of winning speed, you pick up some steals off waivers to try and win it. If someone is going against you and you punt steals, then you’re giving them one category. Are they giving you categories? No offense, you seem like a good person, but I wouldn’t give you any categories. There will be weeks when you’ll be out of the running for steals (pun point!) then you can make the decision to punt at that point (punt point!).
3. Starters, Starters, Starters…
If you can’t beat them with quality, you beat them with quantity. Chances are you should be able to win Ks and Wins every week with this drafting strategy. Then if you can win Saves, you’re only dealing with WHIP and ERA. Figure at least once in a while your opponent is going to lose ERA or WHIP on their own doing. Figure a few times you’ll win ERA and WHIP on your own doing. So in roto I say take a late round flier on possible saves or a starter, with H2H, I say always take a starter. Then another starter, then another. Take them until you can’t take anymore. This also means to wait even longer for starters. Pretty self-explanatory, but for those who like self-explanatory things explained. You don’t need a top starter when you’re throwing lots of junk out there anyway.
4. The Waivers are Your Oysters.
Don’t like Mike Carp’s match-ups this week. Then, as CT from MTV’s The Challenge used to say, carpe diem and grab a different player off waivers. I take this approach in roto too, but in H2H it’s even more pronounced. Besides some of your top hitters and pitchers, everyone’s fluid. To mix metaphors with nonsense, the waiver wire is your own personal Idaho filled with potatoes and you’re an Irishman.
Last time, on Nerd TV we looked at some SP whose actual Ks didn’t jive with their expected Ks from last season. That’s 2011, for those of you traveling through time while reading this. In case you can’t read minds or remember 70 random characters at a time, I’ve used this formula for the expected Ks:
Today, we’ll subjectively select some sandbaggin’ and overachievin’ RP for your fantasy baseball draft strategy.
If you missed Part 1, that’s where all your questions were answered about how, why and where the data was pulled.
RP Sandbaggers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):
Francisco Cordero – 19.9 / 15.3 / 4.6
Coco put up a superb ERA/WHIP combo and his K/9 should’ve been closer to league average than 5.43. This could be partially due to a change in his repertoire, as he induced more GB, chucked 25% less fastballs, and even worked in a curve. He topped it all off with a drop in velocity across the board, a .214 BABIP and a LOB% almost 5.5 points higher than his his career… what the…? His deflated numbers didn’t fool the Redlegs into showing him the money, and they shouldn’t get you all cuckoo for CoCo either, even if he ends up somewhere with closer potential. In case you’re wondering, Mad Dog shows up later on the list at +1.6%.
Jason Motte – 27.0 / 23.5 / 3.5
I’m all in on Motte like cinnamon is to applesauce. It’s time for pun with analogies, kids! His BABIP and HR/FB% were low and lower, but I’d like to think they’re naturally sweetened. Consider 1.2 more eK/9, an improved walk rate and a refined cutter and you’ve got Motte’s-appeal! Hopefully, the bitter taste of TLR’s 2011 non-committal closer endorsement affects Motte’s 2012 ADP such that hand-picking his goodness will be a cheap way to keep the saves doctor away.
Luke Gregerson – 17.5 / 14.1 / 3.4
When he pitched, Huston Street actually sat at +2.5%. If… nay, WHEN he gets hurt and/or traded, the logical place to look is this. Son of Gregor should’ve had a K/9 rate slightly under league average (which isn’t saying much compared to his career 9.3). He also had a low HR/FB rate to go with a dip in FB/CH velocity over the past two seasons. Luke went to the dark side, AKA the slider, 57.5% of the time too. Bode well this does not. Boxberger could get a shot, but with the acquisition of Cashner I think they’d do their best to keep White Castle on ice while they can. Tempura your expectations for a fresh cut backup closer for the Friars.
Kevin Gregg – 22.4 / 19.3 / 3.1
It’s assumed Jim Johnson, who was pretty spot on for eK% here, will assume the closer role rather than head for the rotation. But what if you and me are made into asses? Not much funny business is to be found in Gregg’s numbers, he simply isn’t a good closer. His eK/9 was 9.3, which sounds great in theory. In practice, he continues to hit the zone less, plus fool less batters into taking cuts. Vlurp. If a man points a gun at you and says you have to pick someone besides Gregg, it might be Alfredo Simon. In that case, you should probably pick Alfredo.
Heath Bell – 22.8 / 19.9 / 2.9
Unlike the predecessor formerly known as Leo Nunez, there shouldn’t be any mistake about his identity in the Miami bullpen. Between the improved offense, retooled rotation and his pen-pals, the portly slider should get plenty of chances. The new stadium should actually be a reasonable facsimile of Petco’s dimensions too. Aside from giving up more bad contact, being a bit lucky on BABIP and turning 34, there isn’t a ton that suggests a decline just yet, including this +1.1 expected K/9. If you must have your $12 salad, this one isn’t quite wilted.
Neftali Feliz – 24.0 / 21.4 / 2.6
His K/9 should’ve been less than 9, even with this boost. He’s set to start in the rotation (yes, I realize that’s what pitchers typically do there) despite not having pitched more than 100 innings since 2009, or ever started an MLB game. Texas’ bullpen has potential to be both nasty and fragile, so the move’s likely to stick unless the pen’s really depleted by injuries and/or he himself is. It’s unwise to ignore a player’s will to play through fatigue or injury. It’s also unwise to ignore the risk Neftali could end up infeliz, regardless of his role.
Chris Perez – 17.8 / 15.7 / 2.1
He lost a tick off his velocity, his SwStr%, F-Strike% and GB% dropped, and his O-Contact% took a pretty big jump. If he had ended up with more of what kounts here though (see what I just did there?), he would have been closer to his career lines across the board. I don’t think he’ll return to 2010 form, but there’s definitely room for improvement in his age 27 season. BTW, I’m not Sipp-ing the Kool-Aid on Tony’s +2.1 eK% in case Chris trades his Wild Side Of Perez face for more of his WSOP face.
Carlos Marmol – 32.2 / 30.3 / 1.9
Who has two thumbs and a career BB% almost one and a half times worse than Kevin Gregg? This guy! Not me, Marmol! My control wouldn’t fare any better if I came anywhere near throwing from a mound. I wouldn’t provide around 12 K/9 whilst being wildly inconsistent either. He’ll still get his, despite losing some zip. Just don’t make like a bushbaby when he gets dealt, with no guarantee to close, after the Cubbies pump up his value.
Frank Francisco – 26.1 / 24.3 / 1.8
Frank Frank has a bad (w)rap from being festooned with injuries, but he should fare well with a move to the NL and Citi vs. Arlington or Toronto. His expected K/9 was right around 10 too, like his career mark. If he does get hurt, what’s the worst that can happen? You (and you and you) have to take stabs at saves and a few less Ks from Jon Rauch or Ramon Ramirez, or a few more Ks and a smack from the WHIP of Bobby Parnell? The Mets won’t be good and the backup shituation is far from formed, but all the more reason Frank x 2 = cheap value.
Andrew Bailey – 25.8 / 24.1 / 1.7
Speaking of guys who can’t stay healthy… when he is, Bailey’s the cream. He just isn’t the shelf stable kind. What Irish luck he did have finally took a normalizing swing, which included missing out on a handful of Ks. Even in a less ideal home ballpark, he’ll put up acceptable stats again. His IP go 83.1 as 2009 ROY, 49.0, 41.2 though, so it’s not like the Sawx won’t know the drill. I can’t help but think they’ll go light on Bailey whether or not Bard floats as a starter. Melancon will get more than a few shots, even before the DL jig comes up, so plan accordionly.
Jordan Walden – 28.1 / 26.5 / 1.6
I don’t know whether Bill James is married, but if he is, Jay-Dub must’ve slept with his wife. I mean, he really doesn’t seem to like this guy and I don’t get it. The Pond wasn’t always still and he liked to go out for walks, but his K/9 should’ve been 10.6. Give the kid a second full year of immersion to get acclimated with the MLB experience and I think he’s got a great chance to be just as valuable without the related cerebral discord.
There are only about twice as many RP Sandbaggers as there are Overachievers, and I know you can’t wait to dig in.
RP Overachievers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):
Kenley Jansen – 38.7 / 44.0 / -5.3
…sounds like a NASCAR driver, and he likes to throw fast and to the left. With the biggest K% ding of any RP, he still would’ve been champ for expected K/9 on this list. It’s also kinda whack to knock a guy for control issues when he had a sustainabe 1.04 WHIP. Guerra’s K% should’ve been 1.4% higher, but Jansen ought to hammer down the closer role before long. Even with the risk of health issues and burnout from leaving the heater on almost 87% of the time, he could provide value reminiscent of a guy named…
Craig Kimbrel – 38.1 / 41.5 / -3.4
If you prefer to dig for diamonds in the rough as closers, Kimbrel could’ve rewarded your search in spades. An eK/9 of 13.6 still would have made him priceless. His health may not be forever, throwing only the gas and 30% sliders. However, if taking risk on top-tier quality is more your thing, even Kimbrel-lite’s a good bet to net you plenty of the shiny stuff next year.
Sergio Santos – 33.0 / 35.4 / -2.4 “Coo coo coo roo coo coo coo coo!” SS Closer has presumably docked in Toronto. “He should bring the same reliable service to the Great White North, eh?” Not so fast, my Canadian so-called-bacon-eating friend. “Take off, eh!” The former SS turns twenty-nine in twenty-twelve and we’re looking at a singular, pretty good year. His K/9 still would’ve been elite at 12.2, but is he really an improvement over Jansen? Some may say he’s a potential value pick. I say we’ve already seen his upside. “Beauty advice… from a hoser!”
Joel Hanrahan – 20.0 / 22.3 / -2.3
His was like a season’s worth of dream nights out; aggressive with first pitches, gave up contact, and got lucky a lot. He might have found some success cutting back on sliders and dishing more cheese, but I don’t think it’s realistic to expect it remain so tasty. His K/9 was 1.8 below his career rate and should’ve been lower. You could look past that, but you probably won’t like how rosy things are when you’re left with Joe-Han and a dream.
Rafael Betancourt – 29.2 / 30.8 / -1.6
“Duuuude, Rex Brothers IS Denver, man.” Whoa, if you want to spend your dimes on a wild rookie, maybe you’ve had Dawn Wells sending you care packages. The Bro’s -3.3% K% difference was over twice as high too. “High? *giggle* Nah…” I’ll stick with the other natural choice; John… er, the guy in the headline. “Wha? Don’t Bogart the Cheetos, dude.” Speaking of good bets, any snack product that ends in a homophone of -ito probably is one. Don’t read the ingredients on the Dor-itos bag though. Bonus points for Tito’s Vodka.
You’ve seen Grey’s PEDS, you’ve seen his iOS, you’ve seen his Pitcher Pairings, you’ve seen his rankings, you’ve seen his mustache… doode’s an open book (and actually, he’s got one of them, too). He’s fantasy baseball’s equivalent of Jenna Jameson; he’s willing to show you everything, but he’s not quite as easy as he seems.
This is where I come in. I can’t help you with Jenna (I can’t even get within 500 yards of her, technically), but I can help you with Grey. Specifically, I can help you navigate through his Pitcher Pairings in the midst of a heated draft.
Let’s say it’s the beginning of the 3rd round and you see Clayton Kershaw is still on the board. Your draft strategy never accounted for having an elite SP, but you’re not gonna’ let this value slip by. Now you need to know who to pair him with. You can jump over to Grey’s article, find the paragraph that deals with this scenario, find the sentence that tells you what tier your next SP should be from, find that tier in the SP rankings, and then cross-reference those SPs with the ones still on the board and prepare for your next pick.
Except now it’s the middle of the 5th round and you’ve been auto-drafted Brian McCann and Buster Posey. You don’t need to prepare for the rest of your picks, you need to change your team name to “Catcher Me If You McCann” and prepare for a season of endless mocking.
If only there was a web tool where you could have just clicked on Kershaw’s name and it would have brought you straight to a list of players which your next SP should be selected from… a list which also shows Grey’s Top 300 ranking for each of them (and auction draft value, if you’re into that sort of thing). Guess what? Really, that’s your guess? That’s worst guess I’ve ever heard. Stop guessing.
I’ve created such a web tool, and it’s called APPLES (Albright’s Pitcher Pairing Listing Examination System, anagram courtesy of frequent commenter Steve). You start on the home page where you simply click on the name of the pitcher you’ve selected first. You will be magically transported to a new page where you will see a list of pitchers which Grey feels you should make your next SP. When you make that pick, click on the SPs name and you’ll get a new list… and so on. This goes on for six picks total (again, based on Grey’s recommendation).
There are a few things I should point out:
1. As I’ve already mentioned, this is all based on Grey’s recommendations. I’m not the strategist here, just the guy who made the strategy easier to follow.
2. The lists do not update dynamically, so just because you’ve clicked on a pitcher’s name on one page, his name may still show up on the next page if he’s in the group of recommended pitchers. You’ll just have to remember who you’ve already drafted… shouldn’t be too hard.
3. Depending on what path you take through the Pitcher Pairings, some of the pages you see may look similar. And I don’t mean the way these two look similar, but more like the way Sibel Kekilli from Game of Thrones looks similar to former porn actress Dilara. This is because sometimes your best strategy is to take two SPs from the same group.
4. Which brings me to my final point. Since you may need to take two SPs from the same group, I recommend that you jump ahead a pick (if you have the time) to check if that’s the case. If so, you’ll want to plan accordingly. You don’t want to end up selecting one of the last remaining pitchers from a group only to find out that your next pick should have been from that group, too.
And just one side note to any iPad users out there: I have been working on my own “Draft Bible” of sorts (mine is secular, aside from a brief mention of Jesus Montero and St. Rasburg). I’ve got a color-coded Top 300 with Grey’s ranking and auction value, as well as a check box, next to every player’s name. When you tick the box to indicate a player has been taken, their names are automatically removed from that tab and all other tabs (Players By Position, Pitcher Pairings, Closers, and All SPs). I’ve found it invaluable in my auction and (limited) snake drafts. If you have an iPad and the Numbers app, and you’d like to try it out (it’s free), download the iPad Fantasy Baseball Draft Tool.
Any questions? Please post in the comments below… and here’s that link to APPLES again.
For most of you, been there, read this shizz already, but there’s Razzball newbies (Razzbabies?) that need some coddling occasionally. If you know PEDS, skip ahead into the comments and discuss my mustache. So, there’s a BRAN (Balanced Roster After Nine) Drafting Strategy by Rudy “The Fro Knows” Gamble. He’s also touched upon some fantasy baseball drafting tips. It’s a year or so old, but it’s timeless so when you read it don’t bother looking at the clock. There’s also a LIMA Plan (Low Investment Mound Aces) by Ron Shandler. There’s been a ZIMA Plan by Matthew Berry; it involves a lot of stumbling around and the hiccups. There’s been a Punt One Category draft strategy. There’s been a Punt Two Categories draft strategy, which was conceived by a leaguemate of Punt One Category who just couldn’t stand being upstaged. And there’s the Forget When Your Draft Is So Your Team Is Autodrafted strategy. I love when my leaguemates use that one. Then there’s my fantasy baseball draft strategy, Performance Enhancing Draft Strategy or PEDS.
PEDS has five basic steps. If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues. No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games, but PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft. Okay, onto the steps:
1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks.
No Verlander. No Halladay. No Kershaw. You abstain! They’re fantastic. I love them all. I’d smoke a stogie with Leyland while massaging Verlander’s scalp with EVOO, but I wouldn’t draft him. These starters give you the value of a 1st or 2nd rounder. They do. I said it. The problem is the loss of one of your 1st two hitters is really difficult to bounce back from. You, son, are putting yourself in a hole. A hole? Yes, you are. The absence of Longoria or Votto or whoever is too great.
2. Never take a closer in the first tier.
This is a tough one for some people. I’m going to be you for a brief moment. Me as you, “Hey, everyone’s starting to take closers in the fifth round. There goes Kimbrel, Storen, Axford… Wait, I have to take a closer with my next pick! And why am I not wearing pants?! For the Lord’s sake, why don’t I have pants on?!” See what happened there? You done got swept up. You did. You got swept up in a closer run. Ignore everyone who takes closers. You don’t need a top tier one. Stick to your own game plan. Grab some schmohawks later that will get saves because, as we all know, SAGNOF.
3. Have your offense squared away before the final rounds and never take an offensive bench player unless it’s a flyer with massive potential (like Bryce Harper, for instance).
This rule has been slightly adjusted from previous years. Let’s call it the Bryce Harper Effect Or Is It Affect? The BHEOIIA is telling you it’s okay to grab a hitter for your bench if he has boat-tons of potential and could end up being worth a lot more than his draft value. This addendum could’ve also been called the Mike Trout Effect Or Is It Affect or MTEOIIA. As for grabbing a guy like Ty Wigginton for your bench? Blech. I know, you owned Ty Wigginton last year and you guys got along thick as thieves. Awesome! Send him a postcard. You’re not going to hold onto these late round offense guys anyway. You’re going to get to the first week of the season and you’re going to wonder why you have Ty Wigginton on your bench when there’s a hot hitting Josh Willingham on waivers. Instead of an offensive bench player, grab a middle reliever who seems like he has a good chance of taking over for the incumbent closer. Or grab a starter. (Note: This rule is for 14 team leagues and shallower. If you’re in a 15 team league or deeper, offensive bench players can come in handy when there’s nothing, but scraps on waivers.)
4. When deep into a position, take a flyer on upside.
Nobody in the history of fantasy baseball has ever won a league by playing it safe in the late rounds. In 1995, I tried drafting Mike Greenwell as my fifth outfielder; just didn’t work. A darn fine year by Klesko wasted! You play it safe in the early rounds. You take solid contributors early. You take flyers late. You’re looking at either Carlos Lee or John Mayberry, who do you choose? Brian Roberts or Jose Altuve? Valerie Harper or Sandy Duncan? You get the picture.
5. When in doubt, draft your third, fourth and fifth starters from NL teams.
Self-explanatory. No DH, pitchers hitting, weaker offenses. They bunt in the NL! Does this mean I don’t want Morrow? No, I’m saying when in doubt. Marcum or Morrow? I’m taking Marcum. Chacin or Derek Holland? I’m going Chacin. Doug Fister or Ervin Santana? Ah, trick question. But I’d go Fister. And I hardly knew her!
If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship. PEDS is so easy, it should be illegal. You’re welcome.
