This is almost the end of the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings. With these top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s a few names that I’m really gunning for on my teams… My deeper teams. On last year’s top 80, there were a few guys that shot up the rankings (Hellickson, Anibal, Garza and Zimmermann), so I imagine a lot of you won’t need most of the names on this list, but there will be some. Now humor me. There’s tiers and projections mentioned for everyone. Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:
61. Brandon McCarthy – This tier started in the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. This tier ends at Peavy. I called this tier, “Holy crap, there were a lot of starters I didn’t like in the top 60 starters post. Let’s see some names I like. Please.” The first two guys in this tier could’ve been called, “Young pitchers who don’t strike out many that you should start at home.” McCarthy’s ERA at home was 2.65 and 1.11 WHIP. As said two sentences ago, McCarthy doesn’t strike out a whole lot of guys. Two Sentences Ago, “Why don’t you come up with your own points?” 2012 Projections: 8-11/3.50/1.17/140
62. Tim Stauffer – Last year Stauffer had a home ERA of 2.57 and a 1.13 WHIP. I’ll give this to you nice and simple like Minnie Pearl would’ve wanted it. Stauffer is a Hodgepadre. Start him at home and sit him on the road. He did have 94 1/3 IP innings at home last year, so you’re talking about a top tier reliever’s ratio stats if you hold firm when to start him. 2012 Projections: 8-10/3.80/1.24/135
63. Ted Lilly – I could’ve made a sub-tier within this tier calling these last three guys, “Pitchers that I refuse to learn from no matter how many times they burn me.” I really believe last year we saw the beginning of the end of Lilly. Fading Lilly, if you like pithy comments that sound like sushi restaurants. There’s some arguments to be made that that (stutterer!) is incorrect. He did come on in the 2nd half (2.94 ERA, 8+ K/9). If you believe his 1st half (4.79 ERA) was just an aberration on the that-ain’t-the-real-thing tip, then I could see grabbing Lilly late. For his price, it’s probably worth it. 2012 Projections: 11-8/3.85/1.18/160
64. Scott Baker – For those of you that can’t wait to read the end of this post just to comment that Lilly and Baker’s projections look better than Stauffer and McCarthy so why do I have them below? Don’t. Lilly is on the downswing of his career and Baker can’t stay healthy. Take an upside flyer with Stauffer or McCarthy before these guys. Those of you who didn’t read this blurb and commented about the order of the rankings, you’re not reading this either. Too bad, I would’ve had you say hello to your mother for me. Hey now! 2012 Projections: 11-7/3.65/1.19/160
65. Jake Peavy – If he can stay healthy, he could be valuable. Unfortunately, my man can’t stay healthy. Grey, you have no faith in medicine, The White Stripes. If I were the type to say completely unsubstantiated claims with no factual evidence, I’d say Peavy can’t stay healthy because he used to do steroids. I would never say that though. I’m way above that! Hopefully, there’s no my-momma-didn’t-name-me-that scandal with the reveal that he’s really Jack Peavy and actually 78 years old, but that would jive with all of his health problems. For those worried about the integrity of our great game, I do think the name scandals will soon end with all players selling their naming rights to companies. Now pitching for the New York Yankees… Saran Wrap! 2012 Projections: 10-8/3.75/1.21/130
66. Ryan Vogelsong – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Jackson. I call this tier, “You may get a number three fantasy starter or you may get someone similar to Nadir Bupkus.” Last year didn’t really make sense. Not in general, unless you’re trying to figure why you like baseball yet weren’t that crazy about Moneyball. I think you had to not like baseball to love Moneyball. But I was referring to last year not making sense for Vogelsong. He’s like 40 years old (34) and he just put up his best season, even though his peripherals (pitch speed, where the pitches were, etc.) didn’t get better from the last time he was in the States. Maybe he can repeat it. More likely, you’re going to get a good spot starter when he faces the Padres, Dodgers and some other weaker offenses. 2012 Projections: 10-9/3.75/1.26/140
67. Jonathon Niese – Last year, his ERA was 4.40 and now the Mets are moving in the fences and constructing a giant Madoff head to blow hot air out to right field. So why is Niese in a positive tier? Thanks, clunky expository question! He had a K-rate of 7.89 last year and showed in the minors that is about right and could be even a little higher. Also, he had a slightly off BABIP and poor LOB%, so he wasn’t really a near-four and half ERA pitcher, but probably three-quarters of a run better. All these good vibes about Niese make me want to do my Grind workout. 2012 Projections: 9-10/3.75/1.32/160
68. Bud Norris – You can’t predict wins. You shouldn’t even try. It is totally pointless. But since I had a “Totally Pointless” college degree this is right up my alley. You are not going to get wins with Norris. You will get some walks and nice Ks. I kinda want Norris on every team. Might even draft him on my AL-Only keeper team for when the Astros realign. 2012 Projections: 7-9/3.80/1.32/190
69. Mike Leake – His ground ball percentage was solid, walks were dropped by over one per game and his strikeouts increased (though not to a rate that is drool-inducing). If Leake can avoid dribblers through the vas deferns, he should have some success. 2012 Projections: 13-8/3.75/1.22/135
70. Ryan Dempster – I’m tentatively liking Dempster this year. His 4.80 ERA last year was H to the ideous, but he did have a 3.70 xFIP and a 8.50 K/9. I’ve seen worse stats. Some of the guys above him, for instance, they have worse stats. I don’t know the intricacies of his contract and I don’t think you should draft someone in March with the hope they’re traded, but wouldn’t shock me to see Dempster on a pennant contender before 2012 is through. Maybe he’ll go to the Padres, if the Yankees change their name to the Padres. 2012 Projections: 12-8/3.90/1.33/190
71. Edwin Jackson – Signed yesterday with the Nats, naturally. Looks like all the Nats needed to become a contender was to get rid of Bowden. Great addition for the Nats’ rotation. For fantasy, it’s a’ight. Earlier in his career, he was better in the AL than the NL, but now that he’s matured I think it was an immaturity thing. Funny how that works. Best case scenario is a 3.50 ERA and kinda icky WHIP. Worst case scenario is a 4 and a half ERA and icky WHIP. Speaking of which, I was thinking about what’s the best best case scenario of recent times and I have to think it’s The Jersey Shore. I can’t help watch the opening and think about how when they made that title sequence they all were probably glad to just be employed by a t-shirt shop, MTV almost axed the show before it started and none of them really had much chance for a future unless you count success by the number of acquired STDs. Now they’re all millionaires and it’s laughable that they would work at a t-shirt shop. Of course, the worst worst case scenario would have to be leaving the show a’la Angelina and not reaping any of its benefits. What a stunod. 2012 Projections: 11-10/3.80/1.35/160
72. Hiroki Kuroda – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Collmenter. I call this tier, “Solid, but unspectacular.” See, I will draft solid with a chance for spectacular. I’ll even take a chance on very risky with a chance for spectacular. But “Solid, but unspectacular” gets drafted around the time I want to take flyers, so I don’t bother with this tier. When you’re this late in a draft, it makes no sense to draft a guy like Kuroda, Danks, Buehrle, etc. Like any investment, they’re the last one in and first one out. It’s a shame that Kuroda was picked up by the Yankees. When he was on the Dodgers, he was a solid back end of your fantasy rotation starter that no one ever reached for. For whatever reason, everyone looked the other way even though his career ERA is under 3.50, WHIP’s under 1.20, walks are low and his K/9 last year was over 7. Oh, well. I wouldn’t draft him with your fantasy team in 2012. AL East and The Stadium They Built Across The Street From The House Ruth Built is two negatives that don’t equal a positive. 2012 Projections: 12-9/3.90/1.24/150
73. John Danks – I’ll admit I’m probably too down on Danks. He’s the very definition of solid, but unspectacular. A big issue with solid but unspectacular that I didn’t mention above. If for some reason you get less than solid, you get Danks’s 2011: 4.33 ERA, 135 Ks and 1.34 WHIP. That’s not even solid. At 27 years old, he should revert back to solid, but unspectacular. 2012 Projections: 9-10/3.75/1.28/150
74. Mark Buehrle – Gets wins, mid-3 ERA, lots of innings… What’s not to like? Oh, yeah, he strikes out about as much as Mystery in a college bar on “Ladies drink for free” night. 2012 Projections: 14-10/3.70/1.28/100
75. Ivan Nova – With a 3.70 ERA, he won 16 games last year in 28 games started. Basically, Blyleven would’ve been a first ballot Hall of Famer on the Yankees. If you’re chasing wins, I could see going with Nova, but chasing wins is a losing proposition. (<–Turn of a phrase point!) 2012 Projections: 14-8/4.00/1.33/110
76. Gavin Floyd – I’ve tied Floyd to Danks in my rankings for as long as I can remember, which sounds like a nerdy version of the Goodfellas voiceover. Floyd is a tad under Danks because of his age. There’s a better chance of Danks exceeding his projections than Floyd, but they’re both solid, but… Well, you know. 2012 Projections: 9-11/4.00/1.26/155
77. R.A. Dickey – I don’t like Dickey, not that there’s anything right with that. He’s totally blown away my projections the last two years, but I can’t trust a knuckleballer. I don’t like when I’m relying on a pitcher that has no idea where the ball is going. I’m sure he’s used to the hate. Can’t be easy going through puberty with a name like Dickey and being a knuckleballer. 2012 Projections: 10-9/3.75/1.27/130
78. Josh Collmenter – You thought I didn’t like Dickey? Try my dislike of Collmenter on for size. Too snug? That’s cause you have both of your arms in the same sleeve. Collmenter had a 5+ K-rate and a 4.18 xFIP. No Ks there is a than, but no thans. 2012 Projections: 8-10/4.25/1.24/110
79. Francisco Liriano – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until here. I call this tier, “Screw you, Liriano.” He got very lucky last year. No, not with his FIP or xFIP or BABIP or men left on base or with runs scored for. He got lucky I didn’t kill him. 2012 Projections: 11-11/4.30/1.35/155
80. Brett Cecil – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Volquez. I call this tier, “You’ll probably drop most of these guys by mid-April and may not even have the nads to start them once on your team, but you may as well take a flyer.” (The projections in this tier are optimistic.) I saw one ‘pert didn’t rank Cecil in his top 100 starters. I thought that was odd. He’s only 26 years old. Then I looked at mock draft results and he wasn’t anywhere. I saw Joel Pineiro. I saw Jason Hammel. I even saw Javier Vazquez. He retired. We’re all that done with a 26-year-old pitcher who was being drafted last year in the top 200? I don’t want to point any fingers, but you — yeah, you. Don’t look behind you. — were excited about drafting Cecil last year. Nothing in his stats say bounce back, but between him or Pineiro or a guy that retired, I’m going with Cecil. 2012 Projections: 12-9/4.00/1.30/145
After the top 80 starters, there’s a lot of names, but here’s some that stand out:
Homer Bailey – With a career ERA of 4.89, I’ve warded off Homer to use two of the better father names in the history of television. Now, I find myself seeing a scenario where I could draft him very late. His walk rate last year was more than one walk off his previous year. His K-rate fell a bit, but it’s still over 7. His xFIP was 3.77 and his team should win some games. Bailey is long overdue for a breakout. I’m saying sleeper and grab him late. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it until he defecates all over my ERA. 2012 Projections: 12-9/3.70/1.28/130
Chris Sale – If I had to, and I probably do, write a sleeper post about Sale or Bard, it’s a no-brainer. It’s Sale all the way. Sale’s only real question mark is how many innings will the Pale Hose throw him. (BTW, if I was writing newspaper headlines in 1919, I would’ve wrote “Paint the White Hose Black.” If there’s any time travelers reading this, take it, it’s yours.) I think Sale sees about 125 innings. 2012 Projections: 8-8/3.50/1.24/130
Daniel Bard – When the Sawx first announced Bard would start, here’s what I said, “The Sawx are toying with the idea that Daniel Bard should be in the rotation rather than as the closer. To incorrectly quote Gordon Gekko, “That’s a toy with fleas.” As a starter in the minor leagues, his ERA was 7.08 and walked 78 hitters in 75 innings. Granted, this was early on in his minor league career, but I don’t see the Sawx taking a pitcher that is actually succeeding as a reliever and stretching him out to fail. Then again, their rotation isn’t exactly five deep. Hopefully Daniel doesn’t stay *pinkie to mouth* Bard from the bullpen. Or should I say bullpun.” And that’s me quoting me! I still think the Red Sox make a last minute move to keep Bard in the bullpen and acquire another starter. 2012 Projections: 9-7/3.70/1.22/160
Brad Peacock – I already went over my Brad Peacock fantasy. It’s January Grey’s favorite post. 2012 Projections: 9-8/3.60/1.30/170
Edinson Volquez – If he gets 200 innings, he will strikeout 200 hitters. Look at the rest of this post and try to find another guy K’ing 200. So why isn’t he ranked higher? Well, there’s this little problem with him walking people like it’s his job. It’s not his job. If that’s getting lost in the translation, someone should tell him that is not his job. Yo camino no trabajar! 2012 Projections: 8-12/3.75/1.33/200
Ricky Nolasco – This is the last tier. This tier is called, “I didn’t forget these guys. I’m just not drafting them.” Nolasco hasn’t had an ERA under 4.50 in 3 years, but if you’re playing in a league that counts K/BB rates or guys that underperform, then by all means go with Nolasco. 2012 Projections: 12-9/4.25/1.29/150
Wade Davis – He had strikeout numbers in the minors, and I think those return from wherever they went, but I’m not drafting him on the assumption they will. Could be a nice during-season-pickup if he gets his shizz together. 2012 Projections: 10-10/4.15/1.35/115
Carlos Zambrano – Ozzie will either bond with Zambrano and have him produce his best year since the mid-naughts or their personalities together will become so combustible that Little Havana will break from the union and form the 51st state with Ozzie becoming Supreme Leader of Little Havana and having Zambrano executed. My money’s on the latter. 2012 Projections: 11-10/4.10/1.35/130
Johan Santana – The Mets are hoping to get 25 starts out of Johan. The Mets are saying he’s a question mark for Opening Day. The Mets pronounce players ready to return usually six months before they’re back on the field and they’re saying bad things already about Johan. Instead of drafting Johan, if you’re into torturing yourself, try meeting up with random people from Craigslist’s Missed Connections. Here’s one, “You didn’t tan, your freckles merged. Now I want our bodies to. I saw you at the Jiffy Lube on Tuesday. I can’t wait another 3 months or 3,000 miles.” 2012 Projections: 7-5/3.75/1.22/80 (in 120 innings)
