In our 2013 fantasy baseball rankings, we’ve gone over so many flippin’ players I’ve lost track. This is, I believe, the top 60 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball, but you’re best to check the title to be sure. If it is indeed the top 60 starters, then you’re in luck. Only a few more top 20 rankings posts. What is it, February? March? Why don’t I have an app for this? Or do I want a hashtag? App ‘n Hashtag would be a good name for a 50’s style diner with wifi. As with the other rankings posts, tiers and my projections are mentioned. Anyway, here’s the top 60 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball:
41. Josh Johnson – This tier started in the top 40 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball. This tier goes from here until Haren. I called this tier, “Some are excited by these guys. Even some writers on this site. Not I (or is it me?).” Here’s what I said when Johnson was traded to the Blue Jays, “Little known fact, when I was under the age of eight, I used to call my johnson a Blue Jay of happiness. Did I say eight? I meant twenty-eight. *giggles like an embarrassed Lisa Simpson* In the past, the knock against Johnson has been his inability to stay healthy. This year, he made 30 starts for only the second time in his career. Unfortunately, he didn’t look like the dominant pitcher he was in 2009 or 2010. A huge drop in the strikeout rate and a bump up on his walk rate. There’s a possibility here for more, but I tend to think his name value will make him more valuable than he’s worth, and with the league switch I’d let someone else take the gamble he unearths his past glory. I hear One-Eyed Willy buried it off the coast of a nondescript California town that looks the other way when child actors become drug addicts. Basically, every California town.” And that’s me quoting me! 2013 Projections: 14-8/3.86/1.26/160
42. Anibal Sanchez – This offseason, I wrote about Anibal, “Tigers re-signed him (her?). First clue that I’m human, when I heard I was sitting on the same stool that was once used by a 90-year-old woman to sit on while showering, I shuddered. Second clue that I’m human, I loved Anibal going into last year. Through two months, he had a 2.57 ERA and looked primed for a break out. Things fell apart in June when he posted a 7.06 ERA and a 3.99 BB/9, easily his wildest month. During the month of June, Anibal averaged a 91+ MPH, which is around what he throws, but his location was all over the map. Not sure if he was struggling with mechanics — you said it would only be $170 to fix the taillight! — but he righted the ship as the season went on, and ending up having a 2.43 ERA in September. A bigger concern is he threw his fastball a lot less in 2012 and lost any strikeout gains he made in 2011. He looks like a number two to (stutterer!) three fantasy starter and, unlike going into last year, I don’t see the number one fantasy upside.” And That’s Me Quoting Me, Part 2: The Return of Something I Already Said! 2013 Projections: 13-9/3.92/1.28/180
43. Matt Garza – If he gets 200 innings, he will have a 3.60 ERA and 195 Ks. Yummers! If he has a setback with his stress fracture in his throwing elbow, he can kiss his season goodbye. Bummers! 2013 Projections: 8-9/3.74/1.24/168
44. Dan Haren – I already went over my Dan Haren 2013 fantasy. It’s a humdinger. More dinger than hum, unfortunately. 2013 Projections: 7-6/3.95/1.27/120 in 150 innings
45. Hiroki Kuroda – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Vogelsong. I call this tier, “I like them, but if drafting one causes an erection for longer than four hours, see a doctor.” It’s hard to argue with the numbers Kuroda put up in New York last year. I mean, you could argue with them, but then you’d be arguing with a bunch of integers. Why not just wear a potato sack for a dress, you crazy person! Am I surprised by said numbers? Yes. Am I willing to believe a guy with a career 3.42 ERA in 918 2/3 IP? Still yes. 2013 Projections: 15-12/3.68/1.19/165
46. Doug Fister – You think when he’s having a rough outing Leyland goes the mound and says to him, “Happy? Dugout — Fister!” and Doug’s like, “Who are you getting fresh with?” Nah, probably not, unless they’re both starring in an Ice Cube-directed movie. Last year, Fister had a 7.63 K/9. Think that’s about the upper reaches of his ability, i.e., Fister isn’t known for his punchouts — pun point! Though, he does keep the ball down, has decent Ks and doesn’t walk many. He’s better than he seems but it’s hard to build excitement for Fister. That’s what she said! Huh? 2013 Projections: 13-8/3.49/1.17/145
47. Josh Beckett – This guy takes my fantasy dislike over to real world dislike. He just seems like a douche. I know, truly relevant fantasy analysis. Well, it is kinda relevant, since I might have some real world prejudice against Beckett but I still like him this year. Beckett was a hair away from dropping to the next tier (vets I don’t like much). His velocity dropped from 2011 to last year by two miles per hour. His Ks fell off the table. The only thing that has me not dropping him is he’ll be in a great park and division to succeed, and what he did last year after his trade to the Dodgers (2.93 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 43 IP). There’s a good chance he’s nothing more than a Capuano-type with a more recognizable name. 2013 Projections: 15-7/3.44/1.25/165
48. Lance Lynn – I do these posts by writing out all the names, then I rank them, then I add in the blurbs and projections. Sometimes I’ll write a name and next to it I’ll put a note to remember for later when writing the blurbs. The note next to Lynn read, “Check to see if he’s in the rotation.” The Cards have Carpenter, Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Westbrook and then… Lynn? Miller? Joe Kelly? Garcia will probably be hurt most of 2013 and this is why he hasn’t been ranked yet. So that moves Miller into the rotation with Lynn, right? I’m not sure. The Cardinals seemed to like Lynn in the bullpen and, other than his big splash to open the season, Lynn wasn’t great as a starter. With Lynn, I have a feeling I just ranked my first middle reliever. UPDATE: Carpenter is already injured so the Gods of Strike-Through have spoken and Lynn will almost assuredly be in the rotation. I still worry about how poor he was after he came out of the gate strong, but he should now get a near-full season and he’s got the giddy up for some Ks. 2013 Projections: 12-7/3.94/1.34/182
49. Wade Miley – Upfront I will say (well, upfront after I’ve written about 50,000 words on rankings), I like Miley but if people are drafting for last year’s stats as they are prone to do, Miley will probably be off the table by this point. I’m surprised I like Miley at all because he’s not a strikeout guy. He could easily regress to an under 6 K/9 rate. That’s terrible. I’ve never liked anyone with that bad of a strikeout rate. Patooey! That’s me spitting in the direction of his feet. What has me intrigued — intrigued, I tell ya! — is how dramatically he cut his walks. For K/BB (one of the best stats to see how good a pitcher is, but not infallible — not infallible, I tell ya!), he was tenth best in the majors. Above him, Bumgarner, below him Shields. He had by far the worst K-rate in that top ten, but only Blanton from that top ten hasn’t been ranked yet. The FotO says when you’re striking out people way more than you’re walking them, good things will happen, but when doing it with so few strikeouts bad things can happen pretty quickly. So I like Miley — weird! — but if someone drafts him earlier, don’t sweat it. 2013 Projections: 11-9/3.88/1.28/142
50. Brett Anderson – Nice for ratio stabilization. Not so nice for Ks. No wonder I can’t build excitement for this tier that I supposedly like; none of these guys rack up the Ks. Should’ve known that, especially since I’m the one writing this shizz. 2013 Projections: 9-7/3.49/1.18/110
51. Trevor Cahill – Going to the Diamondbacks, he upped his K-rate and lowered his walk rate. It didn’t hurt that he faced the Padres for 30 2/3 IP last year. That’s like when the kid on your Little League who sucks hits leadoff because his dad is the coach. In other words, setting the Diamondbacks’ rotation was Cahill’s dad. Aw, Cust playin’. Cahill’s not that bad. He’s about average. Cahill’s mom made me write that. 2013 Projections: 14-11/3.67/1.28/162
52. Ryan Vogelsong – He seems to beat his xFIP every year. It must be something in the San Fran air. Probably the fly balls that don’t leave the park. He is the epitome of this tier since it’s hard to excited about him, which is ironic since he can help strengthen a staff. 2013 Projections: 13-8/3.65/1.25/160
53. Johan Santana – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until McCarthy. I call this tier, “If you stay seated while you flush an airplane toilet, the pressure will suck out forty feet of your colon and your colon will be hanging out of the airplane at 30,000 feet.” What I mean by the tier name is these guys may make you feel comfortable for a moment after your draft, but they’re gonna do more harm than they’re worth. After putting a slew of players I liked in the top 52, we were due for a huge tier of players I’m not drafting. Most are just older pitchers. Some are injured. Some are just whatever. Either way, this is a tier to skip. On June 1st of 2012, the ghosts of Ralph Kiner, Casey Stengal and Ed Kranepool all stood on a cloud above Citi Field and used their mystical powers to let Santana go H.A.M. Then Kiner, Stengal and Kranepool’s ghosts started arguing about Ike Davis’s BABIP and ignored the rest of Santana’s season. Not to mention, two of those people aren’t even dead (as of this writing, but Kiner’s not setting appointments too far in the future on his iCal, if you get my drift). Johan’s fastball is down to 88 MPH and he couldn’t finish 2012 due to an injury after missing all of 2011. You’ll probably get glimpses of usable Johan in 2013, so if your league has a Glimpses category, go all in. 2013 Projections: 10-8/3.75/1.29/154
54. Tommy Hanson – Should be fun to watch the Angels win a bunch of 10-8 games, then get bounced in the first round of the playoffs. I’ll go out of a very sturdy limb and say the Angels will be on the market for a starter come July 31st. I already went over my Tommy Hanson 2013 fantasy. Not one mention of Hommy Tanson there, but there is a Heyward Jablome. 2013 Projections: 12-10/3.87/1.30/169
55. Ryan Dempster – Here’s what I said when he signed in the offseason, “This is such a recent Red Sox-type move. John Lackey takes offense to that comment, and all AL teams take offense to Fenway. Last year, Dempster was the same pitcher for the Cubs as he was for the Rangers. Unless he and Matt Garza visited an old Asian man and made a wish to switch bodies. In Chicago, Dempster was the good kind of lucky to have a 2.25 ERA in 104 IP. In Texas, he was the bad kind of lucky to have a 5.09 ERA in 69 IP. Last year in Great American, his BABIP was .143; in Wrigley it was .240; in Miller Park it was .143. Then in the AL, his BABIP in Arlington was .361; .400 in Anaheim and .500 in Oakland. That’s why he was terrible in Texas last year. His K-rate actually went up in the 2nd half of the year. None of this is meant to say Dempster is going to be terrific in Bahston. He’s just not going to be terrible, either. Hold on, someone’s knocking on my door. ”Hello?” ”Just say Dempster’s an average pitcher with better-than-average Ks and move on!” Oh-kay….” And that’s me quoting me! 2013 Projections: 13-10/3.90/1.31/188
56. C.J. Wilson – He’s on track to be healthy for Spring Training after undergoing left elbow surgery. I can’t think of any pitchers who have ever had a set back following elbow surgery because I tend to forget about them for a full year until they are actually healthy again. 2013 Projections: 12-8/3.97/1.33/160
Chris Carpenter – Last year, he pitched 17 regular season innings due to thoracic outlet syndrome. Isn’t a thoracic something cockroaches have? Well, if North Korea ever nukes us, I’m drafting Carpenter. Otherwise, I’m passing. UPDATE: Carpenter’s done for the year prior to Spring Training. The unders take it! 2013 Projections: 8-8/3.85/1.15/120
57. Jeremy Hellickson – If Cueto is a poor man’s Cain, then Hellickson is Cueto right after investing his life savings in copper engravings of Abraham Lincoln. Hellickson doesn’t get Ks or groundballs and pitches in a poor division. Um, yeah, no thanks. 2013 Projection: 9-10/3.78/1.27/138
58. Brandon McCarthy – Here’s what I said this offseason about McCarthy, “After being had for Jarrod Parker, the Diamondbacks are trying to exact some sort of revenge by signing ex-A’s pitcher, McCarthy. I bet he can’t wait until the series in June when he can get the Reds, if only Trumbo was traded there. McCarthy moves to an easier division, but a worse park. Push. He has the ability to help with ratios, but hurt in Ks. Kick, Push, Coast… From 2011 to 2012, he walked more guys, struck out fewer, had an ERA almost a full run lower than his xFIP and was much worse at causing ground balls. Pushing ahead, he’s an injury-prone, fantasy number three to four.” And that’s me quoting me! 2013 Projections: 10-7/3.64/1.20/117 in 170 IP
59. Marco Estrada – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 80 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “I love you, I love you not… I love you!” This tier is filled with huge upside and extreme downside. You’re just as likely to get a number two starter as you are to get a guy who you drop by the 2nd week of the season. (Please don’t ask me why this tier’s projections look better than guys above them. These guys have lots of risk attached to them.) As I’ve said about seventeen hundred times before, take a flyer on upside with your last starter. I have a Marco Estrada sleeper post primed to go out as soon as I finish the rankings. I LOVE ESTRADA. Caps due to a sticky keyboard. The gist of that Marco Estrada sleeper post: draft him in every league. His K/BB is like a hot knife going through hot butter while you’re eating lobster. He can easily be a number two starter. I LOVE ESTRADA. Weird how only those letters are sticky. Hmm… 2013 Projections: 10-10/3.74/1.26/175 in 185 innings
60. Mike Fiers – I already went over my Mike Fiers 2013 fantasy. I wrote it after spending twenty minutes deciding between calling him Mike or Michael. 2013 Projections: 11-8/3.89/1.29/167 in 185 innings
