When I asked Grey to change formats for this year, he had one condition: crippling flatuence. He also had one stipulation: “Crank up the drama, mama!” With that in mind, it’s time to save your team and bait your clicks with my Hall of Fame takes.
Here’s my thinking. For the past three years, I’ve been telling you who the “Top 100 Starters” are/were/would be/could be. Given that only like 35 starters actually produce positive fantasy value and the rest are just Win fillers, knowing who not to draft is critical. This year, I’m handing off the Top 100 Starters to MarmosDad, who I suspect is related to Oli Marmol.
Marmos starts the Top 100 Starters soon — next week, I think? (Editor’s note: It IS next week!) ENYWHEY. To welcome him to his new role, I’m introducing y’all to the WORST starters to draft for 2024.
Worst starters!? I hear you yelling. OK, I just won’t draft Bartolo Colon. QED. You suck EWB!
Harsh criticism, but fair. But I’m not the one who drafted a SP roster of Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Alek Manoah, and Justin Verlander last year. That was you. Also, you’ve got ketchup on your shirt. Hah! Made you look. ENYWHEY. How’d it go for you when Dane Dunning finished as your top SP, and you finished 7th in your league? Did you spend the winter thinking, “Next year, I’ll avoid the mistakes of the past, put on 10 pounds of muscle, and study enough DuoLingo Korean to make sense of a BTS song”?
Sometimes, fantasy baseball is as simple as “pick the least worst.”
Let’s see if we can save you some draft capital:
The Tommy John Returnees: OK, pick something you love to do. No, not that thing. The other thing. What did you pick? Oh, reading Razzball? How nice of you! Now, stop reading Razzball for the next 18 months. I know — it’s unthinkable! But thank you for setting up that bot to give the page clicks anyway. We love you Razzbot! 18 months later, after not doing the thing you love — are you ready to go 100% when you’re back? Generally, nope. It takes a while to ease yourself back in — even to the smooth, easy humor of Razzball. Here are three pitchers who are getting drafted, despite not having a working tendon in their elbow:
- Shohei Ohtani will be back as a hitter and is “confident” he’ll be DH’ing on Opening Day. Great! I love some Oh-dongi. But part of Ohtani’s “cheat code” status in many formats came from his pitching value. If Ohtani pitches in 2024, it’ll be at the end of the year as a spot starter at most. The Dodgers signed Ohtani to a ludicrous contract with the expectation that he’ll pitch…sometime in the next 10 years. But guys who’ve had two Tommy John surgeries don’t return stellar fantasy value. What about Jordan Montgomery, you shout. Sure, bruh. See later in this article. Ohtani as a hitter will be fine, but don’t draft him at a premium expecting meaningful IP this year.
- Jacob deGrom finally got the surgery he had tried to escape for years. He’ll be 36 years old when he returns from Tommy John sometime in late 2024, having tossed a combined 180 IP since 2021. The chances of a 2022-esque Justin Verlander resurgence are there, but there’s equally a chance of turning into Corey Kluber. Keep in mind, 2022 Justin Verlander was buffeted by Win luck; SABRmetrically, it was one of the toughest years of his career. So, the odds of deGrom coming in and saving your team are lower than you think. Believe it or not, deGrom is actually SP81 on the draft board right now, going higher than players like Taj Bradley, Cristopher Sanchez, MacKenzie Gore, and Kutter Crawford.
- Robbie Ray will return around the All-Star Break for the San Francisco Giants. Ray has come back from serious injury before, when he took a line drive off the head and lost control of his pitches until he found the Blue Jays. But much like the rest of the list, we’re talking about a guy who might get 12 starts of questionable value. No need to draft — pick up off the waiver wire if you want.
Chris Sale: Hasn’t thrown a complete year since 2017, and is a combined 17-18 with a 4.16 ERA since 2019. I don’t know what’s more impressive: that he somehow convinced the Braves to give him $19 million a year, or that fantasy managers are taking him as SP42, ahead of Jose Berrios, Cristian Javier, Eduardo Rodriguez, and just about any sleeper you could ask for. Skip the Sale.
Alek Manoah: After being nearly as popular as Taylor Swift in 2022, Manoah collapsed in 2023. At one point, he was working with the developmental league coaches and was chased from a game in 2 innings by rookie league players. Manoah ended up shut down for the 2023 season to “rest his arm.” Kinda like how I’m still on break from running to “rest my feet.” Of course, the narrative is that Manoah is a popular “buy low” candidate for fantasy managers. The Blue Jays have drummed up attention by saying, “No, you can’t trade for this injured, broken pitcher! He’s the future of our franchise!” At the time of writing, Manoah is slated to be the last starter in the Blue Jays’ rotation, with fantasy managers taking him as SP91. More than likely, the Jays are trying to see if Manoah can grow some trade value before they unleash Ricky Tiedemann sometime in May.
Jordan Montgomery: Tough to believe, but JoMo has just a .500 record since 2020. Last year, he sported a SIERA a full point higher than his ERA, with the worst K/9 of his career. His xERA has consistently hovered around 4.00 for his career, while his actual ERA seems to outperform. The meaning? Odds are that this top 40 SP is ready for a trash year. The guy’s still a free agent, with links to the Cardinals and Phillies, both of which would be good for Win luck. But the guy still couldn’t get plus Win luck despite being on the Yankees, Cardinals, and Rangers. What’s to like about a sub-8 K/9 guy as your SP2? Beats me! But don’t let it beat your team.
How many awful starters can you name? Drop them down in the comments and let me know who I shouldn’t be drafting this year.
