This is a less-than-straight-forward dart throw. “Watch your head! Incoming dart!” Mostly because Rowdy Tellez has a minefield of playing time concerns. I don’t fully trust Travis Shaw, even though I predicted he’d win the NL MVP in 2019. That never stops getting funny. You can mock me about Delino DeShields Jr. You can call me a giant dope for five years of adulation over Josh Rutledge and Ian Stewart. You can even say I might’ve been a little goofy about loving German Marquez last year. But calling Travis Shaw my preseason NL MVP selection is so off-the-wall bonkers in retrospect, even I have to shake my head. How many players qualified for the 2019 NL MVP? 300? 400? Well, I think he finished dead last. Yo, Grey, you are smart in the opposite sense of that word. Any hoo! Travis Shaw is blocking Rowdy Tellez. At worst, Shaw is a platoon player, which hurts Tellez and Shaw, and, in a shortened season, I don’t want any part of any platoon player, outside of daily leagues with bench hitters capable of filling in. In a shortened season, maximizing at-bats is going to be critical. Optimism for Rowdy Tellez will also incidentally hurt Teoscar Hernandez, another dart throw, and Derek Fisher, who I like more than most (and might Dart Throw too). As Karens say, something’s gotta give, as they snap for help at nail salons. If Rowdy plays 1st base and Shaw gets DH, Fisher goes to the bench or to the outfield in place of Teoscar. Not great for those other guys, but Rowdy can be interesting in his own right. Audience screams, “Tellez something we don’t know!” I’m about to. So, what can we expect from Rowdy Tellez for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a great dart throw?
All of these prospects are filling up the Dart Throw bin, huh? Trick question! Rowdy Tellez is no longer a prospect. Not in the traditional sense, at least. He hit 21 homers last year in only 111 games, and 370 ABs for the Jays. You surprised to hear that? Well, I was surprised to write it. That was with only a 21.6% HR/FB% and a 37.7% fly ball rate. He also had a 41.6% Hard Contact rate, league average was 38%. A 23.7% line drive rate, league average was 21.4%. He was top 50 for exit velocity (dead even with Cody Bellinger), and top 30 for barrels per plate appearance percentage. That’s top 10%. As I said in my 1st basemen rankings — which are from an easy decade ago, right? — I mentioned how I almost wrote a Rowdy Tellez sleeper post, well, in some ways, that’s what this is. Tellez was killing the ball last year in the majors. His biggest flaw in his game last year was his average of .227 — Marla Gibbs says, “Get off my doorstep!” — but that came with a .267 BABIP. All that hard contact should lead to a .285+ BABIP, and his xBA was .250. That’s neutral luck, by the by. If Tellez gets lucky, well, he hit .314 in the majors in a small sample in 2018. Travis Shaw should’ve never been acquired, and I think the Jays know that, and won’t squander Tellez’s potential, even if it means Shaw is platooned or just used off the bench. Tellez has iffy playing time concerns, but still worth a dart throw for his upside.
Grey,
I like this dart throw, a lot. It makes sense. And his numbers are staggeringly better than I realized. Who knew he was being held down by an unlucky BABIP?????
So I got one question for you. If you could go with one but not both of these guys on your roster, would you go with Tellez or would you go with Isan Diaz?
Nice, thanks!
I’d go Diaz
I am in a 12 team roto keeper league. My last two pitchers are Freddy Peralta and Gausman. I have to start one of them and can reserve the other. I am thinking about replacing them with Dustin May and MacKenzie Gore. Do both or neither or one—if so, which one? Thanks and your dart throws have been great!
I’d go May over Gausman
And thank you!
So you like Peralta over Gore for this year? Thanks again!
I do
This year?! Haha good one.
Here’s some updated stats we’re tracking on COVID, in case this interests you at all.
Global:
New COVID-19 cases on June 4 were 127,182, slightly down from the previous day’s record but well above the previous Thursday. Total global cases are now 6,669,238. Sweden was much better than yesterday but still quite elevated. It remains unclear whether Sweden’s figure yesterday was completely due to a revision or at least partially to an actual acceleration in cases there. The Netherlands was also elevated, while the rest of Europe was mostly fine. Canada looked great, reporting its fewest cases since April 4, while Singapore looked ok. Cases in Russia were up slightly d/d but remain within the range of the past few weeks. Cases in India rose to an all-time high for a third straight day, while cases in Brazil rose d/d and vs. the previous Thursday to just below the all-time high. Besides in India, in the Middle East and Central Asia there were all-time highs in Iran, Pakistan (for a third straight day), Armenia, and Nepal, as well as in South Africa and Malaysia. In Latin America, there were all-time highs in Mexico (for a second straight day) and Guatemala.
US:
New US cases yesterday were 21,140, up d/d but down a bit from the previous Thursday, bringing total US cases to 1,873,164. New York and New Jersey both looked very good, with New Jersey reporting its fewest cases since March 21. New England was mostly good. Connecticut and Massachusetts both looked good, but New Hampshire was elevated. The West continues to look pretty poor. California cases were quite elevated, and to a lesser extent so were Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Nevada. Arizona looked much better after a terrible week, though it remains very worrisome, and Washington was ok. The Midwest was pretty good. Michigan and Illinois both looked good, especially Michigan. Ohio and Iowa were somewhat elevated, and other states were ok. The Southwest was poor. Cases in Florida and Georgia were both quite elevated, and Florida cases were considerably higher in the past week than the week before. Arkansas cases were also elevated, and that state appears to have a poor trajectory, too. Other states were ok, but South Carolina had missing data. The Mid-Atlantic was slightly poor. Cases in Virginia and North Carolina were elevated, though North Carolina was down d/d. Other states in the region were ok. The Central US was mixed. Texas cases remained somewhat elevated, but other states in the region all looked good or ok. Cases by state are now New York 375,133, New Jersey 162,530, Illinois 124,759, California 122,168, Massachusetts 102,063, Pennsylvania 78,335, Texas 70,555, Florida 60,183, Maryland 55,858, Michigan 54,102, Georgia 49,859, Virginia 47,856, and all other states <44k.
Has anyone figured out if warm weather helps against it?
Hey Grey!!!!
Baby seal is back!!! I missed you lots!
I’ve been meaning to comment, but for one reason or another, haven’t gotten around to it. I got really into the PitcherList conference last weekend, which set me way behind on work. Really enjoyed that. (PS you’re a goofball! Haha, obviously. Nothing we didn’t already know!) Was also the first time I got a chance to *see* you on video. Your avi doesn’t do your handsomeness justice.
—
Then I found myself wanting to distance from baseball for a few days. Mostly because, while I’m still optimistic on the season, the public discourse has been pretty bad overall. I don’t want to get overinvested at the last minute only to be let down. I’m hoping this is true: “It’s always darkest before dawn.”
The general social protesting is also upsetting on a few different levels. The looting is just outright horrible, obviously. I don’t really want to get into this stuff – I came here to get away from it! One thing I will say, my boss who hired me 7 years ago and took a shot on a kid out of college, when I was previously told my fund just flat out does not hire people out of college – had some pretty powerful words to say on Wed – and that hit me hard when I was planning to stop by here.
—
Any who (as you say)! Really glad to be writing this right now. Really does bring me a lot of joy. I need to catch up on your posts today / this weekend. You’re the man! How’s everything going w/ you?
NYC going to start actually reopening on Monday. Jobs numbers today were AWESOME! So, so happy about that. We’re in a fragile place right now, we have a legitimate shot to come back as a nation/economy, and I’m really, really hoping all the protesting and complete disregard for social distancing does not spark a second wave. I think we’ll be OK. Expecting like a mini bump in cases. Fingers crossed it’s not worse than that. Just a hunch though… too early to say. Cases next week and the week after are going to be important to watch.
—
Saw some college baseball on ESPN yesterday. Was pretty cool. I liked some of the ideas they mentioned about making it more popular and less financially draining on some schools – the main idea was to start around April, rather than March – to not compete w/ basketball (duh). And just end the season 4 weeks later. Sounds very reasonable to me.
But I lost interest after the first few innings. Sorta like the KBO… I like baseball, yes. But I like watching the best players in the world – the guys who’s names you know – IN THE MLB! I know you agree, haha
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Any who (again)! Tellez is a great dart. Very balanced blurb from you today. Good idea ragging on your Shaw call! I’m pretty out *drafting* him, but we can cyclops the guy. I think Fisher is going to have to suck pretty badly to *really* lose his job. They need his D. Like Cougs, if ya know what I meannnnnnnn. ;-)
Tellez had a really good barrel rate (as you said), and get this, even though he had some pretty good stats (as you wrote about) – according to my calcs – he actually UNDERPERFORMED when normalizing his ISO and comparing to others.
Some others on that list: Swanson, Voit, Cron, Avisail, Abreu, Walker, JD Davis, etc. – some really good names!
—
Great to be drafting against you again! Things starting to feel normal, haha. Hopefully, the owners stop acting like pigs and we can see some ball soon!!!!
Later!
Aw, thanks, Baby Seal! I am super handsome!
Was talking with Craig Mish yesterday on TV and he was saying that, due to the draft, MLB will want to have closure one way or the other before that next week, so we might hear something by the 10th…All conjecture obviously, but it makes sense — you don’t want to do a draft and have baseball talks at a standstill as the back drop…. Good to hear on NYC reopening — my mom and step-father are back to work, they’re chiros in Queens, and they say it’s been pretty normal/busy…So hopefully things are starting to get back to normal, I hope so
Agreed on Tellez, great list of names and it’s hard to go too wrong with any of them if they have the PT
I’m enjoying drafting while this is going on, even if I’m not 100% sure how this league should be drafted and am winging it a little
Craig had a really good panel! Started following him. That’s your “Miami guy,” right?
I do think it makes sense. I am just not so sure. The owners could continue posturing and negotiating, where we eventually get to a point that ~50 games is the only reasonable solution. Really hoping that doesn’t happen.
I get a bad feeling they want to NHL the MLB. First time I’ve started to become less optimistic. But I still am. That’s how these things go. Just sucks ass all around.
Meanwhile, the NBA figures it out in 2 seconds. WTF guys!
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For me, I’m over in Hudson Yards, as you know. The protesting / looting over here has basically been ZERO, surprisingly enough. They fortified the mall ASAP. Some really big time / expensive stores in there.
Honestly, if I showed you a sped up 24h video from my window over the last ~week, you wouldn’t know it was any different than a month ago, other than the police being out at 7pm for the curfew. I’m right by the tunnel and they get there early.
Also, the Army guys who were over in the Javits Center for the last couple months are leaving today.
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Totally winging it, haha. I missed my 1:30am pick last night… oh well. Corbin is fine. Would’ve went Abreu if I did it live. At least I used my queue haha! Just didn’t order it. I needed to shut it down early yesterday and just watch some TV. Much needed break.
MLB wanting to play *less* games is the craziest thing too…It’s so blatantly obvious their motivation is “we make most money in playoffs just give us those”
I have a tank about two blocks from my house, and if you’ve turned on the news and seen LA, you’ve prolly seen walking distance from me
Corbin is fine, I don’t mind him…I find sometimes early in these drafts I’m not used to checking and I get caught napping, but by the end I’m staring at the screen ready to draft
It’s your pick now, btw
Destiny is all!
I am Uhtred!
Son of Uhtred!
Yes!
PS you guys should check out the soundtrack if you haven’t already — think it may only be from season 1 — but it’s sooooo good!
Nice, downloading it now
‘The Last Kingdom’ is my fav… obviously.
Other good ones: Livst… (fav), Helig, Destiny Is All, Icicle (fav), The Hall of the Fallen, Blood Moon (fav), My England
Thanks! Now I’m ready to go take over England!
hahaha, did you hear about their new social distancing rules?
Daily Mail had a nice headline that went something like, “Having Sex is now Illegal in England”
lol…. that place is soooooooooooooo highly surveilled. Wouldn’t be shocked if they showed up at your door mid-BJ.
Haha, I hadn’t
Black Adder
Yes, yes, yes!
Starting up a $10 NFBC Bestball league, which you may have seen me commenting @Grey and @Knoche about the last few months. The link to join is below. The Password is “Bobby” (caps B).
https://bestball10s.shgn.com/signup/baseball?for=0;399,70,2972,7200&private_code=75243k
NFBC doesn’t appear to work in all 50 states or overseas. So if you have an issue joining, it may be that.
A few things to point out about this type of league:
Starting Lineups as follows:
1 Catcher
1 1B
1 2B
1 3B
1 SS
2 OF
1 UTIL
4 Pitchers
Yes you read that correct, only 2 OF and 4 OF start in your weekly bestball lineup. There are 12 starting slots and 32 rounds in the draft, so you’re drafting 20 bench slots.
You don’t select your lineup, you draft and then your done. Optimized lineups run by NFBC does the rest of the work.
The points/scoring can be found within the league page.
Payout:
$75 to 1st
$20 to 2nd
$10 NFBC Credit to 3rd
When this league fills, the draft will start. There is a 2 Hour clock on picks until the last round or two, then its a 1 hour clock
Last post of this here, I promise I’ll prob be looking elsewhere to fill this up over the weekend or at least by the end of the day Monday. I’d seen some commenters mention that they would be interested previously, but all good if things changed. If you got any questions, pls hmu on Twitter @NUX_34
Joined. Thanks, you’re the man!
You are a OTC
Ah, right…I’m out of rhythm
I’d say you’re more of a prescription
I am the cure!
I am the question!
*you yelling at Allen Iverson*
I need to practice!
E-Rod , Montas or Gallen for this year only.
E-Rod was having a dominate spring. But, having to face all the AL and NL East teams in the proposed alignment will be tough.
I think Gallen has great stuff, but his SIERRA last year shows his ERA wasn’t earned and had difficulty going deep into games. Had rough spring too. think the hype around him is a little premature.
Montas was solid last year after refining his approach, showed he can go deep into games and had good outings in spring.
I’m leaning Montas.
I like them all, but I’d go Ed-Rod — Gallen would be next
Take a look at German Marquez if you want some one from high in the Sierras wait that’s the Rockies from the Sierras…maybe Truckee has a team?
Haha — German’s hiding in the mountains?
Alpenfestung!
I’m not familiar with that baseball analytic
Gotta type in the umlaut.
Montas FTW! He’s a target for me this year. You hit the nail on the head w/ going deeper into games. The splitter was AWESOME — check some video if you haven’t seen it — think he’ll probably increase the usage this year.
Montas, Gallen, E-Rod for me. Gallen has a very nice repertoire, and the the change-up is super legit. Gotta love that w/ a young guy.
Grey!!!
Great dart throw report! Rowdy Roddy Tellez!
a. Ga, sorry late to the ball! Our dog threw up his entire breakfast plus some small pieces of cotton from some cotton belt our daughter gave him. So I had to piece together the pieces from the vomit to match what was missing in the belt, otherwise I think we had to go to the vet for surgery. Hopefully he’ll be all right.
b. MLB quote of the day for July 19, 1964
‘Family is everything. It is even more important than baseball.’
Luis Clemente Tiant Vega. He debuted against Whitey Ford, throwing an 11-K, 4 single shutout! In 1968, he led the league in hits/9 (5.30), since broken by Nolan Ryan (5.26/9 in 1972). His 1.60 ERA was the lowest since Walter Johnson’s 1.49 mark. In game 4 of the 1975 WS, El Tiante threw 173 pitches for his 2nd complete game of the series!!
Tiant is also still alive so send him a tweet today!
c. Have a nice weekend.
Cheers,
Ante
Thanks!
A. Dog’s breakfast is exactly how everyone feels right now — are you still on lockdown?
B. Wow, he debuted against Whitey Ford, I didn’t realize their careers overlapped at all…
C. You too!
Grey!!!
a. Lockdown, more or less. My wife needed a break as did her best friend from college. So they killed two birds with one stone and went to that island paradise where we have a small 2 bedroom apartment (600 sq ft). So I’m here taking care of our son and our dog and myself. Our son is on a strict diet – every 2 hours he needs to eat something and he can do it all himself except for lunch and his recess break at 10h25 ’cause he needs to eat it by 10h45 so someone except him has to make it ’cause he’s still in school (freshman year of high school).
b. As far as social distancing and remembering that the virus is still with us and could show up again idiom, Croatia has failed miserably. Thankfully it is very difficult to get to Croatia. We had a plane arrive and one passenger was positive for corona. Now Croatia health authorities are desperately seeking the passenger list, their location and whether or not they are showing symptoms after the fact because this one passenger could infect the entire country!
c. Any news? I guess more posturing so something between 50 minimum and 114 maximum number of games! Sounds really doable!
Cheers,
Ante
A. Your wife sounds like she’s in a female empowerment movie starring Diane Lane — wait, are you married to Diane Lane?
B.Yikes, have you not had many cases there?
C. No real news, but draft is next week…Hard to imagine they go into it w/out a game plan for a season
Grey!!!
a. I am emancipated. I’m not the best of the best so I have to continue being emancipated. Still holding out for duty sex from my wife so I must continue the hunt.
b. We haven’t had many cases, like 100+ deaths from 2000+ positive cases with around 2000+ fully recovered. So r=1, Anthony Gauci is our friend and all is good. It just seems like if the sky fell on Croatia with corona, we’d all die fast whereas other countries would be better prepared. Just my gut feeling about the whole nonsense. I say nonsense because….
1. Country X is 80 miles from China and has daily flights from Wuhan!! Daily!! Their government was responsible – drafted immediately (January 25, 2020) some 130 social, economic and civil administration edicts to be implemented – and produced 4M masks daily (total country population 24M) to drive down the price of masks to like 0.04$!!! They had 50 cases and 1 death!
2. Country Y is like 5000+ miles away, no direct flights from Wuhan. No economic plans except to borrow heavily at God knows what kind of interest rates. Masks cost a fortune, alcohol for disinfection is not available in pharmacies and we IMPORTED 80 tons of goods from China (that we are paying for!!!). It’s crazy!
Cheers,
Ante
A. Haha — so…she might be Diane Lane?
B. 1/2. Yeah, I hear ya
Grey!
a. Yes, she might be. Okay she is for all intents and purposes.
b. 1=Taiwan
2=Croatia
Cheers,
Ante
A. Hey, Diane Lane is smoking so kudos there!
B. Yeah, so crazy
Yes, watch Perfect Storm!
The Mark Wahlberg movie?
C. Oh, I can imagine it! Some of this cheapskates released their scouts, for ANYONE to chat to or hire, right *before* the draft?? Couldn’t wait a month to keep your info closer to the vest??
The draft is 5 rounds… not sure how much the 2020 season should or would impact that.
Yeah, I was never much of a MLB draft guy to begin with, but to have a draft go on while MLB can’t figure out if they’re playing — it’s a bad look on a national scale — I don’t know, that’s the idea at least
Exactly, but the owners seem not to care about the perception they’ve created. Hard bunch to predict right now…
I’ve never followed the draft, either. Maybe read a Yankee blog to see who the first couple picks were, but that’s about it.
As you know, these guys are sooooooooo far away from getting to the Bigs. The real travesty was the Yanks letting the Angels in front of them to grab Trout!!! What could’ve been! :-)
Yeah, MLB draft doesn’t interest me much and I love baseball…I want to know guys in AA or AAA who are about to contribute
That’s a heckova cotton picking morning…
Also your dog wears a belt?
Your dog doesn’t wear a belt?
I’m embarrassed to say that he rarely even wears pants.
Pants are overrated — nay! — pants are a schmohawk
You call that driving pants?!?!!?!
PS. F Jim
I always wear my driving pants while driving, before I get out of the car, I switch into my standing pants
Depends on the car, if it’s a convertible, I’m belt only. Dog wears the pants.
Wake!!
It’s a cotton belt that our daughter used for her summer dress that she doesn’t use any more, so she just gave it to him. Then he went to town on it and managed to soften it and bite off a piece. Frank Voila.
Cheers,
Ante
One thing to keep in mind with neutral luck is that Jim absolutely deserved to get his ass kicked. Some how Roy has to apologize to Pam for getting cheated on by that ignorant slut? Are you kidding me? Jim tortures Andy to the point of punching a hole in the wall and needing treatment for mental health and we celebrate this monster for breaking up a marriage with a woman who was engaged? And why is it ok that Kelly is doing black face? If anyone should have been sprayed with bear spray it should have been Jim. And it should have been by Creed. Meanwhile this fucking piece of absolute dog shit convinces Quincy Jones’ daughter to relocate to Scranton fucking Pennsylvania to continue to mentally cheat with Pam right to her face. Dwight is just trying to keep some form of order. And in doing so, prevents a perfectly punchable face from being punched. And now there’s people in the streets because none of us could go surfing…
Jim is a monster, why don’t more people talk about this? Then he goes off and starts some sports company because he’s chasing his dreams? What about Pam’s dreams? Does Pam even get a say in anything Jim does?
He does what???
Um…did I spoil? Ignore what I said! Jim stays by Pam’s side after she gives up everything for him
Kevin you ignorant slut!
He is tho, what’s up with Kev? Get it together, man
I’m so confused, lol
I have been vilified for years cuz I hate Jim and Pam.
I thought I was the only one. F Jim!
Down with Jim!
F Jim!
Jim showed up for Office-Warehouse basketball game and totally redeemed himself
Dwight was a solid too
Jim needs to be better!
Agreed. F-Jim. Now an action star toughguy?! A beard doesn’t get you there. No offense, Grey. A lothario stache is a whole different ballgame. Pronounced moosetache = Instant cred. F-Jim.
Leave the cheek hair to the hippie weirdos, Jim! LFG mustache!
Love this!
One drunken night a few years back, a friend and I ranked The Office characters to compare our takes (v cool, i know), and neither of us had Jim in the top five. Dude is a straight up bully.
Grey!
I’m disappointed you’re giving up on MVP Shaw so quickly. I have a love hate relationship with all your dart throws as I like most but odds are I’ll miss out on the bullseye of the group.
Have you seen Bauers Live at bats on YouTube? Been fun to see some live at bats. That Trevor Bauer kid is entertaining at the very least.
Saw The Natural last night. Probably a decade since I last saw it. Have you seen any movies worth mentioning? Crazy times – sports cannot come soon enough
MVPshaw!
Haha, I don’t know, in a shortened season and in a new league, Shaw might have something…
Movies…hmm…I watched Uncut Gems, didn’t love it…Been rewatching Watchmen on HBO (Cougs hadn’t watched when it was new), it’s great tho if you haven’t seen it…
Uncut Gems was a good watch.
I started Watchmen but never finished it. I need get on that and Westworld.
I’ve been enjoying Jomboy baseball clips on YouTube. Short entertaining and solid lip reading.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0VW12JJMquE
Enjoy the weekend, MLB owners need to step up and get this season going.
I think we’re gonna hear by June 10th, I hope! Thank you! You too!
Uncut Gems was okay. It was a good turn as far as Sandler doing real acting goes. But my God, I felt like he was constantly frenetically yelling the whole movie. It pushed it to the side of annoying and exhausting for me.
I thought the whole conceit was silly — that he just gave it away to KG in the beginning…At that point, I was sorta like, is this nonsense or no?
He didn’t make very good decisions. Pawn Garnett’s collateral ring? Makes me wonder how he made it this far in life.
I’m suddenly reminded of the musical score…like a Stranger Things soundtrack. Very odd.
Yeah, I get characters don’t always make reasonable decisions, but it just made so little sense
I didn’t love it either — they went too far on making sure it *wasn’t* predictable. It was entertaining enough, I guess.
But that came at the expense of essentially following a cracked out character — who supposedly wasn’t on drugs (yeah, right) — and consistently making the WORST decisions. Just went too far, as you said. Honestly, if he was doing meth, coke, or something like that — might’ve been more believable.
It very much reminded me of my brother, who made similarly horrible decisions when he developed a REALLY BAD drug addiction a few years ago. He’s doing much better now.
But the parallels of borrowing money from everyone, owing the wrong people money, and generally making insanely poor decisions — is something you do in a drugged state.
e.g. The scene at the school was just absurd. Then he has his wife come get him out of the trunk, and doesn’t have at least *some sort of excuse* ready? Ehhhh
Yeah, I don’t mind wrong decisions from characters, but there is a limit on believability and this stretched it for me…I honestly just didn’t buy a lot of it, the scene at the school was one
Exactly, was just an example. Was expecting it to be a bit better, since it seemed to get some good buzz…
Yeah, totally, I was underwhelmed
Gambling as an addiction was the overtone. Needing that fix dominated every decision he made to the point that it might as well have been a drug addiction.
Reminded me of Leaving Las Vegas but for gambling…But it didn’t resonate with me as truthful like Leaving did
but that parlay tho….
Haha, yeah
What a coincidence! I watched a couple Bauer videos last night for the first time.
Pretty cool to watch him breakdown his own video. You don’t get a chance to see that too often (w/ current players). He recently posted one on his match-up vs Trout, I think from 2018 (not sure). But was super interesting!