Points Leagues – WAR (The Good Kind)!

May we never forget!

Today is a day of reflection and remembrance above all else.  Please be sure to take time today to honor and mourn our fallen heroes.  Don’t let them be forgotten.

Nothing I put on virtual paper today will come close to doing justice to remember those who make the ultimate sacrifice for our country.  The most important thing we can do is keep those thoughts close at hand.  So, how about we make a parallel and spend our time looking at baseball’s version of WAR (or, “the good kind of war”).

Last season, I did a deep dive into offensive WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for batters.  We started that Analytics Anonymous meeting with a song, ended with a recommendation, and spent a lot of time in the middle crunching data.  Oh, what a day!

You can go back and read that analysis HERE.

In that piece (if you just went back and read it, you know this already), I took a minute to break down the WAR statistic.

In words, it looks like this:

“you must take their Batting Runs, Base Running Runs, and Fielding Runs above average and then add in a positional adjustment, a small adjustment for their league, and then add in replacement runs so that we are comparing their performance to replacement level rather than the average player.”

In a picture, it looks like this:

Either way, it’s not a calculation you want to do yourself.  Good thing for us, someone else does it for us.

In that piece from last year, I broke down early-season WAR ranks to predict value in each of the 5 normal scoring categories.  Unfortunately, there was only SOME encouraging correlation in the AVG category.

Like I tend to do when using rankings, I finished the analysis by comparing WAR to the “sum rank” of all 5 scoring categories.  In that one, I found that the top 10 “sum ranked” players showed up in the top 25 in WAR. That extended to 10 of the top 25 as well.

Even though negative correlations can be useful, it’s always nice going out with a positive.  I guess that’s why I’m a “glass half full” kinda guy!

Anywhooooo…

That last analysis is akin to a Points league analysis, so I’m going to perform a new run today.  In this one, I’ll rank the points scoring leaders (hitters) and their respective WAR ranks to see how they line up.  The calculation part is pretty easy, so those of you in differing formats can do it on your own and achieve the same info.

As always, I’m going to use the RazzSlam scoring.  We’re always looking for value, so let’s see if we can find a few of those along the way as well.

Speaking of RazzSlam, a public service announcement.  The second FAAB run is coming up soon (June 3), so don’t forget to spend your FAAB $$.

Alright, now it’s time to jump right in with the top 150 (plus ties) in Points scored.

The list is full of names we all know and love for our fantasy teams.  Some come in higher than others, but for the most part, especially in the top half of the list, you won’t find many on your wire.  There are a few sprinkled in there that you might not expect.  Here are a few:

• Masyn Winn (STL) – Masyn Will comes in as the 121st ranked points scorer but a robust 52 in WAR.  Can you believe someone in one of my leagues dropped him?  It happened.  Sure, he’s not swiping bags or hitting many HRs overall (although 3 in the past two weeks), but this is one of the better young SS in the game.  He shouldn’t be on anyone’s wire (other than the shallowest of leagues), so grab him if the opportunity presents itself.
• Zach McKinstry (DET) – McKinstry is an interesting player in fantasy circles.  He provides plenty of roster flexibility and seems to be available in many of my leagues.  It always seems there’s a player just a little better to pick up instead.  He runs hot/cold and doesn’t really fill the ledger in the higher points categories, so that probably has a lot to do with it.  He’s already halfway to his 3-year average in HRs but has a lot of room left to get to his SB average, so perhaps there’s some point upside here.
• Xavier Edwards (MIA) – Edwards has been a big disappointment in fantasy circles so far.  After posting 31 bags (only 4 CS) and a .328 AVG over just 70 games last season, the expectations were high this year.  So far, he’s fizzled with just 11 SBs (and 4 CS).  The biggest difference I see is his increased FB%.  If he gets back to putting balls in play and using his speed, I’m optimistic we’ll see a version of the Xavier Edwards we were hoping for.  Maybe this time away will do him some good.

Who’s Not On The List?

The top 150 provides us a WHO’s WHO of fantasy baseball players, but there are a few missing.  The following players have a top 100 (or so) WAR ranking but failed to make the cut in top 150 points scorers.

• Gabriel Moreno (ARI) – Moreno scores a 31 WAR rank but only a 157 ranking in points scored.  The good news is, the higher WAR is more reflective of where he is now than where he was.  His WAR has essentially doubled since April.  He’s squaring up the ball much better these days, and guess what, it’s working.  He has 3 HRs, all on the road.  It appears good things are on the horizon with Gabe.
• Chase Meidroth (CHW) – Meidroth cracked the top 100 in WAR (78), but still a few spots below Moreno on the points-scored list at 160.  He’s another one on the rise.  After missing some time in late April and taking some time to get his feet back under him, he’s on a hitting tear.  Since May 11, he has put together a 12-game hit streak and logged 19 over that span.  He won’t provide the power points, but he’s also doing it with his legs, with 5 bags over the last two weeks.
• Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) – Jazz has missed time, so that’s part of the reason he sits alongside Meidroth at 160 in points scored ranking but his WAR is an unimpressive 109.  Let’s hope the time away helps him correct whatever was causing the sub-.200 AVG and ~.700 OPS.  Those aren’t the Jazz numbers we all paid for on draft day.
• Daniel Schneemann (CLE) – Schneemann is another in the pocket of players with a WAR ranked in the 70-80 range (76), but only 173 in points scored ranking.  He’s not flashy on the stat sheet but is getting the job done…BB% above 11%, Contact% above 71%, HardHit% about 44%, LA > 11.0 degrees, etc.  If you need some help at MI, he may be a name to look closer at.
• The Other Catchers – apparently, WAR loves catchers.  Alejandro Kirk (WAR rank: 66), Ryan Jeffers (WAR rank: 89), Bo Naylor (WAR rank: 93), and Sean Murphy (WAR rank: 97) all come in top 100 in WAR but sub-150 ranked in points scored.

Another interesting (and useful) analysis in the books.  Remember, if your format differs, you really SHOULD run the numbers yourself.  Having an accurate Points league player ranking is key to this whole analysis.

Let me know what you think in the comments below.

As always, you can find me on Twitter/X (@Derek_Favret) and on BlueSky (@dfavret.bsky.social).

Most of all:  May we never forget their sacrifice.

Until next time, my friends!