Points Leagues: Sean’s a Manaea(ter)

Watch out boy she’ll chew you up. Oh-oh, here he comes. He’s a maneater. I own Sean Manaea in every points league to which I am a member. Why does proper grammar sound so stupid sometimes. I considered writing the rest of this post in ebonics, but I’m afraid I’d offend at least one of my remaining seven readers. Then I’d be down to six and I think that’s when Grey puts the red tag in my locker. So instead I’m going to pretend like the past few sentences don’t even exist, except for the one about Manaea. There’s something about young, rookie pitchers that excites me. There’s another sentence I probably shouldn’t have published. The messed up part is that recognized that before I actually published it, yet I still published it anyway. Are you sure you want to take advice from me?

I thought about titling this post “Dee’s Nuts“, but then I realized I didn’t want to give the lede to that cheater cheater pumpkin eater.

By the end of the season, for any of you still reading my posts, you are going to be sick of the terms “points per plate appearance”. It’s my go to. How many points is a player going to give me every time he walks from the on deck circle to the batters box. Currently, here are the top ten. I bet number will be a surprise.

Aledmys Diaz (1.27)
Bryce Harper (1.23)
Nolan Arenado (1.05)
Jose Altuve (0.97)
Anthony Rizzo (0.91)
Ryan Braun (0.91)
Dexter Fowler (0.90)
Victor Martinez (0.89)
Robinson Cano (0.86)
David Ortiz (0.86)

I’m buying everyone of these players except Diaz. He’s a decent player, but not nearly as good as he’s been playing. All of these PPPA values are guaranteed to drop. Last year Bryce Harper led all batters with a 0.848 PPPA. He was the only batter with at least 200 plate appearances to score higher than zero point eight (0.8). I’m expecting about the same from him this year. Perhaps a tiny increase. From awesome to awesomer. If I have the opportunity to trade for any of these players and not being stuck with the “buy high” price tag, I’m all over it. I think Harper, Arenado, Altuve and Rizzo are going to be unavailable, but the rest of the players might be negotiable. Barring injury, these players will help your team. The play I make is to tell the potential trade partner that their player is obviously playing over his head is bound for a correction. You’re willing to pay a fair price, but you are not paying a premium for three weeks of good stats. Try and find the happy ground between his preseason value and his current.

I’ve tried to project, using extremely simple heuristics, how many points each player will score over the course of the remainder of this season. Here are the numbers I’ve come up. Don’t shoot the messenger. Standard points system applies.

Sorry for the long table, but I was too lazy to use my HTML ninja skills to make it scrollable. Seriously, I was lazy. Obviously things are not going to unfold just as I have dictated above. If they did, then Welington Castillo would outscore Buster Posey. Anyone think that’s going to happen?

Here are some players that I expect to slowly raise their PPPA. Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Buster Posey, Jason Heyward, Albert Pujols, Edwin Encarnacion, Joey Votto, Jose Abreu and George Springer. However, as you must have noticed, none of these guys are the proverbial “needle in a haystack” type of player. Buying low will not be an option.

I left Justin Upton off that list because I am just at a loss for what to make of his performance thus far. There is no doubt that it can only go up. As the weather warms up, so should his hitting. If you can buy low, then I’d recommend it. He’s going to end the season with at least 20 home runs, but his PPPA of 0.03 is probably an all time record for a guy projected to have a 0.71 PPPA. Makes me kinda throw up in my mouth a little considering I own him. The real question is should I spit or swallow? I think I have to swallow. I think in one of the upcoming weeks I will do a buy/sell post entitled “Spit or Swallow“. Mental note approved.

I am buying Robinson Cano. He will finish the season as the number two 2B behind Altuve. I did pick him as my bounce back player of the year in our preseason selections. His 0.86 PPPA is above his projected 0.69 which means he will likely come down a bit, but remain high enough to have been a solid pick considering his ADP.

But how about a few more names that I think are worth trying to get on your team. Dexter Fowler, Ryan Braun, Yoenis Cespedes, Dustin Pedrioa, Mike Moustakas, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Davis, Nelson Cruz, Gregory Polanco, Matt Carpenter, Stephen Piscotty, Daniel Murphy, Jean Segura, Neil Walker, Michael Conforto, Lorenzo Cain, Anthony Rendon, and Kyle Seager. If you want the specifics on one of these players, just ask in the comments section. I seem to have a nasty case of laziness today.

If you’re wondering what I’ll be doing tonight, wonder no more. I will be watching Sean Manaea get his first MLB career win against the Houston Lastros. They are tied with the Twins for the worst record in the American League. I guess you could say they are twins in that respect. Houston leads the majors in strikeouts. Manaea is a strikeout pitcher. Ying meet yang. Here is what I am hoping for. Six innings pitchers, eight strikeouts, two walks, four hits and two earned runs. Now let’s see what this big Samoan can do. Ia manuia!

Let’s go Islanders!!!