Perception Vs. Reality: Weaker Than Expected Middle Infield Depth Charts – AL East Edition

For the second installment of a full division’s worth of players, I offer you the AL East. 

After the disappointment I found when diving into the NL Central middle infield depth charts, I had high hopes for the AL East, sure that the middle infields would offer a combination of star power and depth. But once I dug into the depth charts, I was met with plenty of evidence suggesting that this division’s strength doesn’t seem to come from the middle. There are, however, some helpful players and even a couple of MVP-caliber players, but there is also plenty of meh.

All stats I reference in this article are as of end of play on 4-29-25. 

The depth chart (according to MLB.com) of the 2B and SS positions for each team:

 

TORONTO BLUE JAYS – hide the children from this horror show

2B: Andres Gimenez, Will Wagner (AAA)

SS: Bo Bichette, Ernie Clement

This infield has a potentially elite offensive presence in Bo Bichette and then virtually no other impact. Andres Gimenez certainly has a carrying skill that can make him fantasy-relevant, but his impact is mostly limited to speed. This infield is bad.

Bo Bichette

Bichette’s skills look like they have mostly bounced back from last year’s injury-plagued, down year. While his wOBA is hanging out just barely above .300, his xwOBA is closer to .400 (.383). And his hard hit data says he’s ready to be the old Bo Bichette who can provide a good-to-very good AVG and 20+ HRs. His HH% is at its highest since 2022, and his Barrel% is creeping back toward his 2023 numbers. His Statcast numbers are bright red, and he’s even added 2 bags (though his SBA% of 1.1 suggest he isn’t exactly planning to go crazy with SBs). 

Welcome back, Bo. We missed you.

Ernie Clement

Clement has a solid-to-good Contact% and Z-Contact%, and that’s pretty much where the good news ends. He swings outside the zone too much, and while it doesn’t cause his K% to be too much of an anchor, it doesn’t exactly make him a dangerous hitter. His HH% is well under 20%, and I think I’ll spare you the bad dreams you’ll have if you see his Barrel%. 

A good sign of the weakness of Toronto’s lineup is that Clement’s wOBA of well under .250 is penciled into the 7- or 8-hole about two-thirds of the time.

Andres Gimenez

As I wrote in my initial 2B rankings article, I expected the Gimenez experiment in the 4-hole would fall flat – so far, “flat” is an understatement. Gimenez looks awful, likely because he started out bashing HRs and decided he wanted to be a power guy instead of the player he actually is. His 3 HRs all came during the first 5 games of the season, and most of his overall numbers are frightening: his AVG currently sits well below .200, and his wOBA is in the .260s. Yikes. 

The player he actually is offers speed and, usually, a not terrible AVG. If he’s at the top of the lineup, he offers Rs as well, but it doesn’t help that Toronto’s lineup is once again underperforming expectations. I keep thinking that offense has to be better than it currently looks, but this swoon is at well over a year now. Not surprisingly, though, Gimenez has found himself inching toward the bottom of the batting order for the last week (on 4-29, he was in the 8-hole). So, for right now, he’s near the bottom of a bad Toronto lineup.

I think Gimenez will rebound, at least some, in AVG, and his 8 SBs are helpful. But that bounceback needs to come soon before he’s dropped throughout the fantasy world.

Will Wagner

Wagner hits the ball harder than Clement, and his contact numbers are slightly lower. Otherwise, in a side-by-side comparison of stats, you might not be able to see much of a difference between the two. Neither is a good option for any but the deepest of deep leagues, and Wagner was optioned to AAA on Tuesday.

 

BALTIMORE ORIOLES – elite ceiling, meh minus currently

2B: Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg (IL), Jorge Mateo

SS: Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Jorge Mateo

This whole infield, like the team in general, is underperforming. Apparently, the Oriole position players looked at the absolute nothing burger of pitching help Mike Elias provided this offseason and decided, “Why bother?” 

And who can blame them? If we take the last start from both of their main free agent acquisitions (Charlie Morton and Kyle Gibson) and add them together, the line isn’t pretty: 6 IP, 18 H, 16 ER, 6 HR, 6 BB, and 4 K. This not-so-quality start would have an ERA of 24.00. Yikes.

I think the Orioles’ middle infield will get better, especially Gunnar Henderson, but the start is less than ideal. There is plenty of elite talent though:

Gunnar Henderson

I was high on Henderson coming into the season, and I’m too dumb to change my position at this point. As I look under the hood, I see a rusty player, not a broken one.

His hard hit metrics are right in line with previous years, except that he is actually making less soft contact and quite a bit more medium contact. His LD% is down a few points, but it isn’t because he’s selling out for power and just trying to hit everything into the air (his 35.5 FB% is comparable to previous years). His contact numbers aren’t markedly different with the exception of an elevated CSW%, which is resulting in an elevated K% and a lower BB%.

In addition to his power and plate discipline metrics mostly being in check, it looks like he’s starting to right the ship. If we play the arbitrary stopping point game and look at his performance for his first 50 ABs compared to his performance since then, the problems with K% start to look significantly less stark. In his first 50 ABs, he struck out 19 times. Even I can do that math: a K% of 38 – not great. In his 38 ABs since, he’s struck out 7 times: a K% of 18.4. 

If you’re thinking about trying to sell low on Henderson, I would recommend against that. I think he’ll be fine, and I still expect a big season.

Jackson Holliday

Repeat after me: Prospect growth isn’t linear. You’ve probably heard that before – I certainly didn’t invent the saying. But it’s true: the fact that Jackson Holliday isn’t already one of the best 2Bs in the league doesn’t mean he isn’t getting better.

His plate discipline has improved markedly: both his Z-Contact% and Contact% are up by 10% or so, his CSW% and SwStr% have both dropped by around 5%, and he’s swinging at pitches outside the zone significantly less often. His surface stats haven’t really shown impact from the changes, but I think they’ll come. How soon, I don’t know, but I wouldn’t be surprised if, at some point this season, it all just clicks and we see a different player.

Jorge Mateo

Mateo is an emergency option for the Orioles who has only 25 PAs on the season. In what little playing time he’s received, he’s done nothing to indicate he needs more PAs. If he’s on your roster, I hope the league is VERY deep.

Jordan Westburg

Westburg got off to a scorching start and then started to fall on his face. I suspected at the time of his slowdown that it was related to his upper body injury that the Orioles weren’t being too forthcoming about. And based on his overall hard hit numbers, I don’t think the upper body injury has gone anywhere: he’s dipped noticeably from last year in EV and HH%, and his Pull% has dropped 12.5% from last year.

Currently, he’s on the IL for a hamstring injury, which, last I checked, means he’s now hurt in his lower body. Ugh. 

Otherwise, Westburg looks like he hasn’t changed at all from last year. That means the hoped-for breakout doesn’t look imminent, but how can we know until he’s healthy? If you roster Westburg, I’d definitely be nervous about the bumps, bruises, and strains he has been affected by, and I wouldn’t be totally opposed to selling low. But I do still think there’s a monster of a player hiding behind the injury problems, just waiting to show itself.

 

TAMPA BAY RAYS – potentially playable, but with caution

I actually like a couple of the players in the Rays’ middle infield, but they are useful only in certain situations. If you use them with discretion, there’s value to be had. But these are not guys you can just “set and forget.”

2B: Brandon Lowe, Jose Caballero

SS: Ha-Seong Kim (IL), Taylor Walls, Jose Caballero

Jose Caballero

Caballero got off to a really good start, but I didn’t buy it because of his lack of playing time and plate discipline. In the week since I wrote that article, his AVG has unsurprisingly dropped by another 24 points. He offers speed, and his PT does seem to have increased. But, oy, his plate discipline – there are still holes. His contact numbers have gone up since last year, but his already low HH% from last year is down by almost one-third. He’s hitting the ball more often, but so softly that it might not be doing any good. And even with the improved contact, he’s striking out 38.5% of the time.

Long story short, Caballero is a nice fill-in for a week or so if you want to stream SBs, but I wouldn’t want to play him for really any other reason or for long stretches.

Ha-Seong Kim

Kim is absolutely the type of player I want to plug into my lineup to fill holes in SBs and Rs while also getting a not-terrible AVG. But Tampa beat reporter Marc Topkin has suggested Kim won’t return to play until mid-June to July. Rostering him before then won’t make much sense for fantasy players in most leagues.

Brandon Lowe

I have long been a Brandon Lowe believer, but he is what he is: when he hits the ball, he hits it hard. The key, though, is how often he hits the ball. Plate discipline isn’t exactly his strength, so he can go through long periods of absolutely tanking your average. But when he has a healthy enough season to put together 400+ PAs, he also hits 20+ HRs, with his one 600+ PA season resulting in 39 bombs. The guy can give you help with power with some reasonable chipping in of Rs and RBIs, but you’re probably not going to like the AVG column very much.

Taylor Walls

In a healthy season, Walls is likely to put together around 400 PAs because the Rays like having his glove in the lineup. But if you’re unsure about putting Caballero’s bat into your lineup consistently, Walls probably also isn’t your guy. Like Caballero, Walls can provide SBs, but you may not want the damage he does to every other category.

 

BOSTON RED SOX – not as good as you might think

2B: Kristian Campbell, David Hamilton, Romy Gonzalez

SS: Trevor Story, David Hamilton, Romy Gonzalez

This middle infield has plenty of star power between the highly-regarded prospect Kristian Campbell and the old, grizzled former All Star Trevor Story. But a closer look at this infield leaves me with very little desire to roster anyone other than Campbell.

Kristian Campbell

Campbell’s ridiculous start is still going strong. But the .409 BABIP has to come down, right?

My concerns are still exactly what they were 2 weeks ago: his Contact% is lower than I would like, and his CSW% of 30.1 all but guarantees that slumps will happen. We saw one happen over the course of a 2-week run that dropped his AVG from .423 to .288 and included a slight bump up in K% (up to 28.9) and a slight drop in BB% (down to 11.1) for 45 ABs. I suspect there will be a few worse slumps over the course of the season.

That said, the tools are there, and it could be argued he’s actually been unlucky when it comes to his 18.2% HR/FB rate. Despite the risks, the chances of a monster season convince me that I’d love to have him on my roster. If he is on your roster and he goes through one of the upcoming predictable slumps, be patient – he has the skills to hit his way out of it.

Romy Gonzalez

Gonzalez has accrued 11 more PAs than David Hamilton, and he’s certainly a better offensive player than Hamilton (which, as you’ll see below, isn’t a high bar). He hits the ball hard, and if an injury happens, he might be worth a stream here or there. But his lack of plate discipline makes it difficult for him to put together anything consistently, which is likely why he’s listed as the third option for both 2B and SS. There’s nothing here to offer value.

David Hamilton

Hamilton is off to a miserable start and has the lack of playing time that we might expect for someone hitting .067. His BABIP will improve – .048 isn’t going to stick around. But I wouldn’t exactly expect a major turnaround. 

Hamilton doesn’t hit the ball hard at all, and his one carrying skill is his speed. But his speed isn’t enough to overcome the fact that he’s just not a strong offensive player, and your best hope is that he gets lots of pinch running opportunities. This profile isn’t one of a roster-worthy player in most leagues unless an injury happens to get him in games more often (if he hasn’t been sent down to the minors by then).

Trevor Story

In a “Story”book return to action from last year’s injury-driven season, Trevor Story has looked to be rising from the ashes of a career derailed by his failing body. He has been a significant contributor to Boston’s solid start to the season. He is absolutely smoking the ball, with a HH% of 53.7, a Barrel% of 11, and an EV over 90 mph. All of that is great.

The not so great is that his plate discipline looks a lot like Romy Gonzalez’s – but since he is making significantly more money than Gonzalez, Story gets to play probably no matter what happens. But slumps are coming. He is swinging outside the zone at a massive 38.8%, which (checks notes) is even worse than last year’s terrible 36.4%, which was worse than the previous year’s 31%. Oy.

There are reasons Story hit .238 in his last semi-healthy season, and he has dropped as low as .203 in 2023 (another injury-plagued year for him). His days of hitting in the .280s appear to be long gone, so his current .271 AVG probably isn’t long for this world. But if he stays healthy, he has a legitimate shot at a 25 HR / 25 SB type of year with Rs and RBIs in the 60s / 70s. Those numbers play – as long as you can take the damage to your AVG category. I tend to try to avoid that kind of AVG albatross, but there is certainly value to be gained from Story’s profile.

 

NEW YORK YANKEES – high ceiling, frustrating stretches of nothingness

2B: Jazz Chisholm Jr., DJ LeMahieu (IL), Oswaldo Cabrera

SS: Anthony Volpe, Oswaldo Cabrera

Not surprisingly, the Yankees’ infield has the most star power and probably the highest expectations. I would suggest those expectations should stay high, but with the understanding of some significant holes in swings that could lead to extended slumps to go along with unbelievable hot streaks.

Oswaldo Cabrera

When given enough PAs, Cabrera can provide a little help in all categories – though his current AVG of .291 would be a career high by 44 points, so his help in AVG is probably minimal. Expected AVG regression aside, Cabrera hits the ball reasonably hard, has some speed, and over the course of his big league career has logged games at every fielding position other than catcher. He’s an ideal backup player, and while the hope is you won’t need him in your lineup, he’s not a bad streaming option when he’s filling in for one of the Yankees’ starters.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Jazz hasn’t suddenly forgotten how to play baseball – he’s almost exactly the player he has always been. That player has an insane ceiling as we saw after his trade to New York last year, but he also has the ability to be infuriating to roster.

Plate discipline isn’t exactly Jazz’s forte (musicians, you are welcome). He has never had a strong Contact%, and his Z-Contact% has been meh at best. His CSW% has been in the 30s every single year except for last year. Jazz’s new home with the short porch in RF definitely makes his power play up, and he already hit the ball plenty hard before arriving in New York. So 30 HRs are absolutely within reach. But… the short porch won’t make him strike out less – his current 31.2% K-rate isn’t exactly an anomaly for him. His one year below a 27% K-rate was, you guessed it, last year. Last year was special.

Jazz is extremely talented. Even with his current .181 average, he comes in at 75th overall on the Razzball Player Rater – not great, but pretty impressive considering. Even with the elevated Ks, he is providing strong contributions in the other 4 categories. 

This is the Jazz experience – we’ll call it Fusion Jazz. I fully expect big numbers from a special athlete, numbers similar to Razzball’s hitter projections of a .242 AVG, 26 HR, 78 R, 75 RBI, and 33 SB. For some stretches of games, Jazz will look like a first-ballot Hall of Fame player; for other stretches, he’ll look more like the kid in little league who never got to play because he strikes out too much. But in the end, if the health is there, the numbers will be there as well.

DJ LeMahieu

I honestly can’t remember the last time LeMahieu was both healthy and good. Not surprisingly, he is currently on the IL. The Yanks report that he is set to resume his rehab assignment this Friday, so there’s that. I have zero interest in rostering him until he proves that he still has the ability to play.

Anthony Volpe

I haven’t really changed from my initial ranking of Volpe, which wasn’t an optimistic one. I see his talent – he offers contributions in four categories, and he is hitting the ball harder than any other point since he got to the majors. I like him – mostly. I just can’t overlook the plate discipline issues to the same extent that others can. If you are a Volpe fan, there are plenty of other analysts who will give you a much more optimistic outlook than I will.

That said, if he’s on your roster, the Razzball hitter projections put him at a respectable .238 AVG and a helpful 16 HR, 74 R, 64 RBI, and 26 SB. I’ll even bump up the HR expectation to the low 20s. Those numbers certainly provide value. I haven’t been able to roster him very often, though, because I have a bad feeling that the .238 AVG projection could very quickly turn into a reality a lot closer to a flat .200.

 

That’s the list for this week. My high hopes for the AL East weren’t exactly fulfilled, but there is still next week – the AL West. Until next time. – ADHamley