Grey pointed this out in yesterday’s recap, but I feel it deserves some special attention here: Ruin Tomorrow Jr. has come out and said that Cesar Hernandez has wrestled the starting second base position away from Chase Utley in Philadelphia. While Utley is being shamed, which is a bummer way to close out a stellar career, the upside here is that we get to see more of Cesar. Cesar has been leading off or hitting second for the anemic Phillies lineup, with ridiculous success. In the past two weeks, Cesar is 26-for-58 with 9 steals and a .508 OBP (1.025 OPS). Yeesh! Cesar has been benefitting from an inflated .535 BABIP and will certainly fall to earth, but the speed should help soften the descent. I don’t think Cesar is the next Dee Gordon, but Gordon-lite? Sure. Cesar could post an OBP in the neighborhood of .340 over a full season with 35 steals, based on his minor league track record.
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The title really should have something to do with Dodgerland or Mannywood. Maybe the Best Team That Money Can Buy (Can’t wait for the book to come out Tuesday, by the way)? But I have to include Mike Trout in here, too.
I love Felix Hernandez. I truly do. In my short time living in the great northwest, I understood the appreciation that they have for King Felix. The King’s Court is something you should witness at least once if you are a baseball fan.
But for some reason, Trout has had his number throughout his career. There are three current Angels that are hitting above .200 in their career against Felix Hernandez. Erick Aybar (.220), Albert Pujols (.222) and Mike Trout (.345). It’s no small sample, either. He’s 20-58 against Hernandez with 3 home runs and 12 RBI. He’s the fifth-highest price outfielder behind J.D. Martinez and Andrew McCutchen, which makes sense. However, Cameron Maybin and the injured Giancarlo Stanton both cost more than him. It’s a large enough sample that I feel confident to zig with Trout while others will zag. That’s why after selecting my building block (SPOILER: It’s always a pitcher for me), I knew Trout was the first hitter I was getting in my lineup. Let’s get into it more, shall we?
Straight to the cash, homie.
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Yesterday, Carlos Gomez went 2-for-3 with 4 RBIs and his 8th and 9th homers. Only took until the 87th game of the year for a big game. Maybe I’m a goofy chicken. Maybe I’m a guy that puts feety pajamas on over his head. Maybe I walk into a Subway and ask a sandwich artist, “Do you smell onion?” Maybe I stare at people playing Jenga and try to move the pieces with telekinesis. Maybe I pronounce the D in Django. Maybe I call diner waitresses “Sweetheart” and old guys “Sonny.” Maybe I could be wrong, but — here it comes, Razzball nation — I wouldn’t be shocked by a huge 2nd half from Gomez. Can’t be much worse than his 1st half, could it? Don’t answer. Let’s hold hands and ruminate. Figuratively! Let go of my hand! Last year, his 2nd half was much worse than his 1st half and in 2013 it wasn’t that different, so there’s nothing here historically. What Gomez does have is a track record that had him drafted in the first round in most leagues, and showing next to nothing so far. His ground balls are up (not literally) and his fly balls are down (literally) and he’s making lousy contact. Again, there’s no reason to think he bounces back, but he was nursing injuries in the 1st half, and hopefully he stays healthy. If you have to take a hard way bet and can get him cheap enough, I could see it. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
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Sky: “Beddict, what’s up broseph? Want to manscape each other and hit the Oregon coast for the week? My wife’s finally allowing me hang out with you again after the Playboy mansion incident.”
Beddict: “No can do, big dog. It’s Shark Week. Call me next week and I’ll make sure there’s not a solitary hair anywhere near your junk.”
Grey: “Tehol, I’ve been chosen to write the pilot for what could be the next, Game of Thrones, possibly even bigger, and I’ve chosen YOU to collaborate on it, you know, because of your rapier wit and panty dropping charm. Total life changer here, Tehol.”
Beddict: “First off; nothing will EVER eclipse GOT, as it’s the greatest show of all time. and 2nd: C’mon son….IT’S SHARK WEEK!”
Jay: “T-Beeeeeezy, guess who’s in town, playa?! That’s right, me, Jay Long-Dong! I received 30 Tinder matches since I landed in Sea-town, and they all want to get wasted at Beddict Manor for a week straight.”
Beddict: “No can do, Kimosabe. Nobody loves butt naked freaks more than Beddict, and I know we’ve never actually hung out, but bruh, Shark Week. Maybe next year…..Just a different week of next year.”
J-Foh: “TEHOL, you old son of a gun how are ya. Any chance you can watch my kid for a couple days while I go catch the donkey show in TJ?”
Beddict: [Hangs up phone.]
IT’S Mother EFFing SHARK WEEK, YA’LL!!!!!
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Midseason Top 50 Prospects: The Big Movers
July 8, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 162 Commentsby: Mike
The midseason prospect rankings are upon us, and as I put together our own list here at Razzball, there are a few players who have seen significant changes in their rankings since my preseason list published. While most of the Top 50 will be familiar, there have been graduations and a couple of dropouts. That means a few new names will crack the list, which is pretty exciting. The full midseason Top 50 will publish a week from today, and unlike traditional lists, ours will be completely geared towards each prospect’s potential fantasy impact. If next week’s list is the main course, then I guess today is the appetizer. To be eligible, a prospect simply needs to retain their rookie eligibility, or less than 130 AB/50 IP. Here are ten players who were big ‘movers’…
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The Most Under-Drafted Player of the Last Five Years
July 8, 2015 | 2015 Fantasy Baseball Draft | 32 Commentsby: paul
Last week Grey had the great idea to put my ADP treasure trove of data to good use, and ask people which player they thought has been the most under-drafted over the past five years (2010-14). Who put up good numbers year after year and still was not given the benefit of the doubt?
We got lots of guesses, but only one person got the right answer. Who is this person and which player did they guess? Scroll down to go straight to the destination, or you can first relive some of the journey that got me to the answer…
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Growing up, I, like many of my friends, held the All-Star Game to be a true collection of the best baseball players in the game. We’d watch Pete Rose, Mike Schmidt, Johnny Bench and the National League beat up on Reggie Jackson, Vida Blue and the American League year after year. But even then, and as time has moved on, there have been some head scratching choices as All-Stars along the way. Some of it can be pinned on the rule that each team has to have an All-Star, lending to some interesting choices. But some, like Alfredo Griffin, who was named to the 1984 American League squad simply because he came with actual All-Star Damaso Garcia and the AL needed some when Alan Trammell got hurt, didn’t belong and years later, it still looks odd. There has been Chris Brown, Mike Sharperson, Jay Howell, Ron Coomer, Cesar Izturis and a host of so-so relievers since the age of the relief pitcher in the All-Star game has taken full bloom.
Even with all that mediocrity in the AS game, it still surprises me to see names I am fairly sure will stand out years from now that have now been minted All-Star. One of those is D.J. Lemahieu. Lemahieu is nothing special as an offensive player. He has a decent contact rate, average walk rate, good speed. He’s a good fielder at second base this season, too. But nothing about Lemahieu says All-Star, except the offense in which he plays.
But little of that matters in daily fantasy. LeMahieu can be as basic as a game of tic-tac-toe, but if he’s batting second, which he has often this season, and the game is at Coors Field, Mr. Average can be rostered with confidence that he’ll be putting that decent contact rate and speed to good use. For you.
So enjoy the All-Star game, D.J., what do I care? As long as you keep on delivering in DFS.
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Please, blog, may I have some more?Does this happen to people? You’re working on something, and listening to certain tunes and that informs the way you go about your work. I’ve never had a real job in my life, so I don’t know how this works for those. Does a toll collecting juggalo listen to Insane Clown Posse while working and violently throw change back at drivers? Is this why a building’s roof caves in because the construction crew was listening to Because I Got High by Afroman? Or if you were to suddenly change a hitter’s walk-up music from say Next Episode by Dr. Dre (which seems to be at least one hitter’s song on every team) to The Pina Colada Song would that change everything? I don’t know, but I’m a deep thinker, and I saw Johnny Cueto‘s start yesterday and thought he had to be listening to the Silver Jews, specifically this one section, because that gets me so jacked I could jackhammer a driveway with my foot. I took a hammer to it all! *banging foot on cement* Right?! Okay, maybe it’s me. That’s why we’re having this one-sided conversation, to better understand each other. Yesterday, Cueto threw a farkin sparkler — a farkler, if you will — 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 11 Ks, ERA down to 2.61. Cueto’s the bomb dot gov. He’s almost exactly in line with what he was doing last year when he had a 2.25 ERA in 243 2/3 IP. And, if anything, he’s actually pitching better this year, lowering his walk rate from 2.4 to 1.7. For whatever reason, he seems to stay out of the conversation for the best pitchers in the major leagues, but yesterday he took on Max Scherzer (4 2/3 IP, 5 ER) and took a hammer to it all. A hammer to it all! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
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Move over Billy Hamilton – there’s a new king of SAGNOF in town! Well, maybe not, but Cesar Hernandez (+49%) has been on some kind of roll in recent weeks. Over the last 30 days, the 25-year-old Hernandez has stolen more bases (10) than any MLB player outside of Hamilton, and his .376 batting average ranks 3rd in MLB over that time frame. Sure, his .471 BABIP over the last month is wildly unsustainable for any player, but his MLB-leading 35.5% LD% and 5 bunt hits over that stretch suggest that a BABIP in the .340 range is a reasonable expectation over the remainder of the season, even when factoring in some inevitable regression across the board. His 11.4% BB% and 15.8% K% this season are both well above league average, and his 6.8% Swstr% is sandwiched right in between Dee Gordon and Brett Gardner on the season. Not too shabby.
Worried about playing time moving forward? Chase Utley is still hurt and produced a .179/.257/.275 triple slash line prior to hitting the DL, and Ben Revere is likely to be on the move in the coming weeks. Freddy Galvis? Cody Asche? Darin Ruf? Domonic Brown? Not exactly formidable roadblocks. Philly is likely to be essentially Maikel Franco surrounded by a beer-league softball roster following this season’s trade deadline. Playing time doesn’t appear to be an issue here. Interested in a player who could potentially give you 18-20 steals and a .280 average ROS? Hail Cesar!
Here are a couple of other significant adds and drops in fantasy baseball over the past week:
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Despite posting a 20-20 season as recently as 2013, last season left just about every Shin-soo Choo owner more than a little disappointed. We saw his strikeout rate jump six percent and as a result he was sat down on strikes in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances. Choo’s isolated slugging plummeted over 40 points, his home run total was nearly cut in half and he nabbed just three steals in seven attempts. Let’s just say 2014 wasn’t a banner year for Choo. The Rangers brought about an early (and some may say merciful) ending to his year as he was shut down in late August due to bone spurs in his left elbow. Beyond the somewhat explainable platoon woes — Choo has never really hit southpaws very well — the biggest issue has been his batted ball distribution. After a slow start this year, Choo has rebounded somewhat, and a large reason why is that he has gone back to hitting for power to the pull field. Observe the table below, showing his power numbers for the past four seasons when pulling the ball.
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Unlike the bad idea to make the movie that inspired the lede today, this weeks update is chock full of useful stuff for you. No, not you Magoo, you already know all the bonus content, but I know you are chomping at the bit to talk about bad 80’s movies. Seriously, even if you have no chance to appear on any of these lists, there is good stuff for RCL strategy, or really any game starts and/or “daily moves no limit on games played” leagues. Damn, that’s a mouthful… and finger full? That’s what I said! I don’t want to hear all the blah blah blah about your tough home league or H2H mumbo jumbo. This is RCL snitches! Before I get to the content, I have to humor my colleague the Big Magoo. He has a thing for bad 80’s horror flicks like a have a thing for bad 80’s b-movie comedies and all their gratuitous boob shots and short shorts. Saturday the 14th combines all those elements in the worst possible way. Silver lining moment of the flick was the appearance of Jeffrey Tambor. It was so bad they decided to make a sequel years later that was worse than the original. If these movies wanted to get it right, they would of gone the Transylvania 6-5000 route. Anythehoo, enough of all that, on to the update…
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DraftKings was actually a little late to the DFS party. You’d never know it by looking at how prevalent they are everywhere. They have done a wonderful job marketing, nabbing up partnerships with MLB and several major sports franchises along the way. They are one of the two big fishes in the sea right now. Back in the early days of DFS every site had a little chat box that was a place for three things usually. 1) Trash talking, 2) Whining, 3) Immature potty humor that quickly degenerated into things that you’d read on a Yahoo! article comments section. DraftKings came into being after the chat box phenomenon had started to fade away. It’s really no surprise these chat boxes have gone the way of the buffalo, but there are a few smaller sites where they still exist. All of this was a long introduction into me reading one of these chats the other day and seeing someone whining about “stupid Coors stacks”. I’m a Coors stacker, it’s what I do. I try every way I can to get as much exposure to that place as I possibly can on a given night. For me, it’s a worthwhile gamble and one that pays off more often than not. It’s not everyone’s bag though, but you have to be aware of the situation. You can always fade Coors in a tournament, figuring most people will be on that game. If Coors is a dud and your guys go off, you should have a nice advantage. You could go with the flow and stack Coors, or you could just sprinkle in Coors action and pick your spots. The final option of course, if the Coors stacks really bother you is to just sit those nights out. No one will think any less of you. If you are playing tonight, one name I highly discourage fading is Wilin Rosario. Wilin is a beast with the stick and is superhuman when he’s got the platoon advantage (.325/.360/.623 career slash line). Toss in the Coors factor and for $3,600 with eligibility at first base or catcher and there’s no excuse for fading Wilin tonight. Here are a few more fellas you shouldn’t be fading this evening.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 18 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
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