One Man’s Trash: Hail Cesar!

Move over Billy Hamilton – there’s a new king of SAGNOF in town! Well, maybe not, but Cesar Hernandez (+49%) has been on some kind of roll in recent weeks. Over the last 30 days, the 25-year-old Hernandez has stolen more bases (10) than any MLB player outside of Hamilton, and his .376 batting average ranks 3rd in MLB over that time frame. Sure, his .471 BABIP over the last month is wildly unsustainable for any player, but his MLB-leading 35.5% LD% and 5 bunt hits over that stretch suggest that a BABIP in the .340 range is a reasonable expectation over the remainder of the season, even when factoring in some inevitable regression across the board. His 11.4% BB% and 15.8% K% this season are both well above league average, and his 6.8% Swstr% is sandwiched right in between Dee Gordon and Brett Gardner on the season. Not too shabby.

Worried about playing time moving forward? Chase Utley is still hurt and produced a .179/.257/.275 triple slash line prior to hitting the DL, and Ben Revere is likely to be on the move in the coming weeks. Freddy Galvis? Cody Asche? Darin Ruf? Domonic Brown? Not exactly formidable roadblocks. Philly is likely to be essentially Maikel Franco surrounded by a beer league softball roster following this season’s trade deadline. Hernandez shouldn’t have much trouble making his way into the lineup on a daily basis in the 2nd half. Interested in a player who could potentially give you 18-20 steals and a .280 average ROS? Hail Cesar!

Here are a couple of other significant adds and drops in fantasy baseball over the past week:

Brett Anderson – 32.5% owned (+15.4%)

Guess which MLB player has the highest ground ball rate (68.4%) among all qualified starting pitchers? Oh, kind of gave it away, didn’t I? In addition to his MLB-leading ground ball rate, Anderson has also produced the lowest line drive rate (12.6%) and the 3rd lowest fly ball rate (18.9%) among all qualified starters. By producing such a high ground ball percentage, there’s only so much room for all other types of batted balls. Makes sense.

The main negative here is a below average strikeout rate (6.47 K/9), but Anderson has allowed more than three earned runs just once over his last 12 starts, resulting in a 2.36 ERA over that span. He faces the light hitting Phillies and Brewers at Dodgers Stadium this week as we head into the All Star break. If Anderson’s available in your league, scoop him up while you can. TREASURE.

Jesse Chavez – 37.1% owned (-11.9%)

As usual, it’s pretty slim pickins on the most dropped players list this week. There are the recently demoted players (Gallo, Chi Chi, Ozuna), the injured players (Lincecum, Beltran, Harang, Garcia, Aoki, Buxton), and the slumping players (Butler, Simon, Martinez, Pelfrey, etc.). Chavez is a player who could fall into the latter group. Over his last three starts, Chavez has allowed 23 hits, 4 walks, and 12 earned runs in 17 innings for an ERA of 6.35 and a WHIP of 1.59. Ouch.

The good news is that there aren’t any obvious red flags in his profile. His velocity, control, and ability to miss bats are all in line with his breakout 2014 season. In fact, many of Chavez’ 2015 numbers have been quite similar to those of St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Michael Wacha, who’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. Let’s take a look:

As you can see in the table above, there’s not much separating these two pitchers. Chavez actually has a higher K-rate and a lower FIP, while Wacha has excelled at limiting base hits and stranding runners on base. The bottom line is that Wacha should not be available in your league, and neither should Chavez. TREASURE.