It’s been a long, tough winter (especially for those of you who live in the Northeast), but the wait is almost over. Spring training is in full swing and the regular season is just around the corner. That means, of course, that fantasy baseball draft season is here.
Recently, we’ve attempted to identify the next Corey Kluber and looked at some hitters who displayed above average power and plate discipline over the past couple of seasons. Today, we’re going to focus on relief pitchers. If you’re looking for the latest closer rankings as well as the top handcuff and hold options, check out the Bullpen Report, which provides excellent RP analysis each and every week.
This post will attempt to identify relievers with a very specific profile: power arms with high K-rates. Players who throw hard and miss bats. It’s that simple. Well, mostly. Let’s take a look at the search filters that I used for this exercise:
Minimum 50 IP
K% of at least 25%
SwStr% of at least 12%
FBv of at least 94 mph
In order to cast a wider net and avoid placing too much emphasis on a single year’s worth of data, this exercise covers both the 2013 and 2014 seasons. I’ve split the data into two separate tables with regard to space considerations. The first table contains the results of the data as specified in the search criteria. To provide some context, here are the MLB averages for relief pitchers during the ’13 and ’14 seasons:
| Season | K% | BB% | K-BB% | FBv | Contact% | SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 21.70% | 8.90% | 12.90% | 92.5 | 77.10% | 10.40% |
| 2014 | 22.20% | 8.60% | 13.60% | 92.5 | 77.00% | 10.50% |
Here is the first table which contains the qualifiers who fit the initial search criteria (sorted by K-BB%):
| Name | Team | IP | K% | BB% | K-BB% | FBv | SwStr% | Contact% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | CIN | 117.2 | 47.40% | 11.50% | 35.90% | 99.1 | 18.00% | 60.80% |
| Dellin Betances | NYY | 95 | 39.50% | 7.10% | 32.40% | 96.5 | 12.60% | 70.70% |
| Greg Holland | KC | 129.1 | 39.00% | 7.70% | 31.30% | 96 | 15.80% | 64.10% |
| Andrew Miller | – – – | 93 | 40.10% | 9.00% | 31.00% | 94.2 | 14.10% | 66.90% |
| Craig Kimbrel | ATL | 128.2 | 38.50% | 9.20% | 29.30% | 97 | 15.10% | 67.40% |
| Wade Davis | KC | 82 | 36.80% | 8.60% | 28.30% | 95.6 | 13.50% | 69.50% |
| Sean Doolittle | OAK | 131.2 | 29.70% | 4.20% | 25.50% | 94.2 | 13.30% | 75.40% |
| Luke Hochevar | KC | 70.1 | 31.30% | 6.50% | 24.80% | 95.5 | 13.40% | 72.00% |
| Jake McGee | TB | 134 | 30.90% | 7.10% | 23.80% | 96.3 | 12.10% | 75.80% |
| Glen Perkins | MIN | 124.1 | 28.60% | 5.20% | 23.40% | 94.1 | 12.20% | 76.70% |
| Cody Allen | CLE | 140 | 30.90% | 9.00% | 21.90% | 95.4 | 12.70% | 71.60% |
| Jim Henderson | MIL | 71.1 | 31.00% | 9.40% | 21.60% | 95.1 | 13.80% | 70.90% |
| Joaquin Benoit | – – – | 121.1 | 29.20% | 7.70% | 21.50% | 94.4 | 15.40% | 67.70% |
| Trevor Rosenthal | STL | 145.2 | 31.50% | 10.00% | 21.50% | 97.1 | 13.70% | 71.80% |
| Ernesto Frieri | – – – | 110.1 | 30.70% | 9.20% | 21.40% | 94.2 | 13.60% | 72.80% |
| Jake Diekman | PHI | 109.1 | 29.60% | 10.70% | 18.90% | 96.6 | 13.50% | 70.00% |
| Jordan Walden | ATL | 97 | 29.20% | 10.30% | 18.80% | 95.7 | 14.20% | 69.80% |
| Nate Jones | CWS | 78 | 27.80% | 9.10% | 18.80% | 97.6 | 13.10% | 71.00% |
| Chris Withrow | LAD | 56 | 31.70% | 13.80% | 17.90% | 95.7 | 12.00% | 73.00% |
| Carter Capps | – – – | 79.1 | 25.60% | 7.90% | 17.70% | 96.1 | 12.70% | 72.60% |
| Pedro Strop | – – – | 118.1 | 27.50% | 10.20% | 17.30% | 95.4 | 13.80% | 70.10% |
| Mike Dunn | MIA | 124.2 | 26.40% | 9.50% | 16.90% | 94.5 | 12.60% | 74.30% |
| Dominic Leone | SEA | 66.1 | 25.70% | 9.20% | 16.50% | 94.6 | 12.40% | 72.60% |
| Kelvin Herrera | KC | 128.1 | 25.10% | 8.90% | 16.20% | 98.2 | 13.10% | 72.90% |
| David Hernandez | ARI | 62.1 | 25.10% | 9.10% | 16.00% | 94.8 | 12.60% | 72.80% |
| Steve Delabar | TOR | 84.1 | 28.10% | 13.10% | 15.00% | 94.3 | 12.80% | 71.90% |
I took the liberty of including contact percentage as a category in this table as well. The players with dashes next to their names played for multiple teams over the last two seasons. A few quick observations on these players:
• Topping this list in K%, K-BB%, average fastball velocity, swinging strike rate, and contact rate (lowest) is Aroldis Chapman. That guy’s pretty good.
• Holland, Davis, Herrera, and Hochevar (who will be returning from TJS shortly) provide the Royals with an embarrassment of bullpen riches. Any lead past the 6th inning is generally a safe one for KC.
• Betances and Miller combine to form a potentially dominant RHP-LHP combo at the back end of the Yankees bullpen this season.
Now that Captain Obvious has stepped down from his soapbox, here are the MLB averages for RPs in terms of batted ball data:
| Season | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | BABIP | WHIP | ERA | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 21.00% | 44.20% | 34.80% | 10.50% | 9.80% | 0.291 | 1.29 | 3.59 | 3.79 |
| 2014 | 20.50% | 45.30% | 34.20% | 10.00% | 9.00% | 0.294 | 1.28 | 3.58 | 3.67 |
And here is table #2 with the batted ball data for the qualifiers (sorted by GB%):
| Name | Team | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | BABIP | WHIP | ERA | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Leone | SEA | 20.60% | 54.70% | 24.70% | 14.30% | 9.50% | 0.282 | 1.16 | 2.17 | 3.07 |
| Pedro Strop | – – – | 25.00% | 51.80% | 23.20% | 9.10% | 10.60% | 0.266 | 1.15 | 3.35 | 3.05 |
| Andrew Miller | – – – | 21.80% | 50.30% | 27.90% | 4.00% | 12.00% | 0.291 | 0.99 | 2.23 | 1.87 |
| Nate Jones | CWS | 21.70% | 50.00% | 28.30% | 17.90% | 8.90% | 0.337 | 1.28 | 4.62 | 2.9 |
| Wade Davis | KC | 20.20% | 49.40% | 30.40% | 17.60% | 0.00% | 0.243 | 0.83 | 0.99 | 2.17 |
| Kelvin Herrera | KC | 23.20% | 48.50% | 28.20% | 17.70% | 9.40% | 0.277 | 1.16 | 2.52 | 3.21 |
| Jake Diekman | PHI | 27.30% | 46.10% | 26.60% | 8.30% | 6.90% | 0.343 | 1.38 | 3.38 | 2.84 |
| Dellin Betances | NYY | 21.30% | 45.70% | 33.00% | 12.90% | 8.10% | 0.267 | 0.85 | 1.89 | 1.83 |
| Craig Kimbrel | ATL | 23.50% | 44.60% | 31.90% | 15.00% | 7.50% | 0.25 | 0.89 | 1.4 | 2.09 |
| Greg Holland | KC | 22.20% | 43.70% | 34.10% | 7.90% | 6.70% | 0.275 | 0.89 | 1.32 | 1.88 |
| Trevor Rosenthal | STL | 22.20% | 41.20% | 36.50% | 12.00% | 4.80% | 0.329 | 1.25 | 2.9 | 3.01 |
| Jake McGee | TB | 18.90% | 40.20% | 40.90% | 12.10% | 7.60% | 0.283 | 1.03 | 2.89 | 2.83 |
| Chris Withrow | LAD | 19.00% | 39.70% | 41.30% | 8.00% | 12.00% | 0.209 | 1.09 | 2.73 | 3.44 |
| Joaquin Benoit | – – – | 17.50% | 39.20% | 43.40% | 12.90% | 6.50% | 0.233 | 0.91 | 1.78 | 3.1 |
| Carter Capps | – – – | 23.00% | 39.10% | 37.80% | 12.60% | 14.90% | 0.359 | 1.51 | 5.11 | 3.45 |
| Jordan Walden | ATL | 18.60% | 38.00% | 43.50% | 11.70% | 5.80% | 0.282 | 1.16 | 3.15 | 3.39 |
| Aroldis Chapman | CIN | 23.10% | 37.40% | 39.60% | 9.70% | 11.10% | 0.284 | 0.94 | 2.29 | 1.67 |
| Mike Dunn | MIA | 18.40% | 36.90% | 44.70% | 12.60% | 6.30% | 0.28 | 1.2 | 2.89 | 3.65 |
| Glen Perkins | MIN | 24.50% | 35.70% | 39.80% | 14.20% | 9.40% | 0.296 | 1.05 | 2.97 | 2.86 |
| Luke Hochevar | KC | 19.40% | 35.00% | 45.60% | 13.70% | 11.00% | 0.214 | 0.82 | 1.92 | 2.9 |
| Cody Allen | CLE | 20.20% | 33.00% | 46.70% | 8.90% | 8.90% | 0.288 | 1.16 | 2.25 | 3.15 |
| David Hernandez | ARI | 21.20% | 31.50% | 47.30% | 9.00% | 12.80% | 0.252 | 1.19 | 4.48 | 3.99 |
| Steve Delabar | TOR | 23.40% | 30.20% | 46.30% | 11.60% | 7.40% | 0.304 | 1.39 | 3.74 | 4.01 |
| Sean Doolittle | OAK | 19.10% | 28.80% | 52.20% | 16.80% | 5.40% | 0.255 | 0.85 | 2.94 | 3 |
| Jim Henderson | MIL | 27.90% | 28.50% | 43.60% | 6.70% | 14.70% | 0.287 | 1.21 | 3.41 | 3.16 |
| Ernesto Frieri | – – – | 18.40% | 27.40% | 54.20% | 16.00% | 14.70% | 0.309 | 1.32 | 5.14 | 3.56 |
I included WHIP, ERA, and xFIP in this table to give you an idea of how these RPs performed in the most commonly used ratio categories for fantasy purposes (and xFIP for how they could’ve or should’ve performed in ERA, depending on your perspective). Here are a few potential RPs of interest based on these results:
• Dominic Leone: Highest ground ball percentage (54.7%) among these qualifiers as well as the 7th highest infield fly ball percentage (14.3%).
• Kelvin Herrera: 6th highest GB% (48.5%) and the 2nd highest IFFB% (17.7%). Herrera also produced the 2nd highest average fastball velocity (98.2 mph) among these pitchers, behind only Chapman.
• Pedro Strop: 2nd highest GB% (51.8%) on this list as well as the 7th highest SwStr% (13.8%), which placed higher than Davis, Allen, and Betances in that category, among others.
• Jordan Walden: 5th highest SwStr% (14.2) behind only Chapman, Holland, Benoit, and Kimbrel. Posted the 4th lowest LD% (18.6%) as well.
Four of the five RPs who produced the lowest ground ball rates have either lost their closer roles (Frieri, Henderson) or struggled with inconsistency (Delabar, Hernandez). Frieri, Henderson, and Hernandez have all struggled with HRs allowed as fly ball pitchers in hitter-friendly environments. Doolittle is currently sidelined with a shoulder injury, but his fly ball tendencies have played well in his spacious home ballpark.
What do you think of these RPs? Targeting any of these middle relievers in the RCL format this season?
