The unique thing about Head-to-Head leagues is that at the end of the week, none of the statistics you accrued in that matchup really matter anymore. Sure, it contributes to your players’ values going forward but that is about it. You get a Win or a Loss, and it is as if your players’ stats are wiped clean. On to the next one. This is unlike roto leagues where your statistics accumulate day by day, week by week, over the whole season. Every stolen base, save, and home run stays with your team for the whole year. It doesn’t really matter when your players collect those statistics because it looks the same at the end of the year.
This is not the case for H2H leagues. The end of the year statistics are obviously important, but the raw totals don’t matter as much as in roto leagues. Instead, your season essentially comes down to winning as many one-week match-ups as you can. This means that you want to add the players that give you the most consistent production throughout the year. Guys that are notorious for being streaky and susceptible to slumps can be a burden in H2H leagues. Their end of the year totals make look pretty decent, but the key here is finding players that will give you constant production. Health is the other huge factor. Your player can’t be giving you consistent production if they are not consistently on the field. Of course you want consistency in any format, but it is especially imperative in H2H leagues where each matchup is only a week long.
Looking at the past few years as well as their potential for this season, I’ve created a list of “H2H Heroes” and “H2H Heartaches”. Just because someone is a H2H Hero doesn’t mean that they are a surefire stud and will win you your league. Nor does it mean that they are not valuable in a roto league. They are guys that I give a boost in H2H leagues due to consistency and/or some other reason. On the flip side, a H2H Heartache doesn’t mean they’re a dud and you should avoid them at all costs. They are just guys that I see to be more of a burden when it comes to weekly matchups and get downgraded in H2H formats.
Heroes:
Joey Votto:
Joey Votto, aka Mr.Vottomatic himself. He is an annual lock for a .300+ average, 30 bombs, and 90-100 RBI/R each. Votto has cemented god status in on-base leagues, with an insane league-best .449 OBP over the past three seasons. Also over that span he has recorded a .320 average to go with 31.3 home runs, 100.7 runs scored, and 92.3 runs batted in. You really can’t find a more durable offensive contributor, which is the epitome of a H2H Hero. Knowing you will get consistent production out of him every week makes him one of the safest early round picks. What also makes Votto one of the best H2H players is that he is perhaps the best second half hitter in all of baseball. He is a career .327 hitter in the second half to go with an 1.008 OPS and 167 wRC+. Why does this matter for H2H? Because Votto will be scorching hot in the final months as you try to fight for a playoff spot. When you are playing your most important matchups, Votto will be playing his best baseball.
Brian Dozier:
In order to constantly produce, one must be getting constant at-bats. No one has more plate appearances than Brian Dozier (2100) over the past three seasons. Over that span he is averaging a .258/.335/.496 slash with 34.7 HR, 103.7 R, 89.7 RBI, and 15.3 SB. That is a full five category contributor if I’ve ever seen one. Since 2015 he has been 10th in home runs, 7th in runs, 24th in runs batted in, and 37th in stolen bases. His weakest category is average, but the past two seasons he has hit .268 followed by .271 in 2017. He is hitting atop a very underrated Twins offense and should continue t0 display tremendous consistency. A ~.270 hitter with 35 HR/15 SB potential is a perfect building block in a H2H league. The only player to record that last year was Paul Goldschmidt. Dozier fell one home run shy of that mark, and seems poised to break it this season. Dozier prepares to become a free agent next offseason, so expect nothing but his best effort this year.
Jose Abreu:
Since entering the league in 2014, Abreu has been a model of consistency. His yearly averages have been a .301/.359/.524 slash to go along with 31 HR, 82.5 R, and 102.5 RBI. Over that span, Abreu is 10th in home runs, 30th in runs scored, and 5th in runs batted in. He may not help you out in SB, but you know he will be rock solid in the other four categories throughout the entire year. Some are scared that he may not be as effective in a rebuilding White Sox lineup and can be pitched around. But the team is in no worse shape than last year, where Abreu recorded a.304 average with 33 home runs, 95 runs scored, and 102 runs batted in. He displays a rare power-high average combo, as he was one of only 7 players to record a .300 average while hitting 30+ home runs last season. Abreu is one of the most balanced hitters in the game, which makes him an excellent H2H building block.
Kyle Seager:
Corey’s brother, or as some people call him “Kyle”, has been a poster boy for durability over the past several seasons. The fewest amount of games he has played over the past six years has been 154 last season. Also notoriously known for slow starts and getting better as the season goes on, last year may have been an exception. Many view last season as a down year and it has really shown in drafts. His .249 average was 29 points lower than it was in 2016, and he had 11 less runs and 17 less runs batted in. Even hitting sub .250, he was able to record a .323 OBP and slug .450 while hitting 27 home runs. Some are treating his 2017 like a steep decline, but I think he just had a down year. Keep in mind is just one season removed from posting a .363 wOBA and a 132 wRC+. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 27.7 home runs, 82 runs scored, and 87 runs batted in. He may not be the most exciting pick, but you are getting solid offensive numbers at a very low cost.
Pitchers can be a pain when it comes to H2H leagues, as their worth for the week comes down to just one, maybe two starts. Pitchers can seem incredibly inconsistent on a week to week basis because of this. While Quintana may have experienced a inconsistent first half in ’17, he is actually one of the most consistent pitchers over the past several years. He logged 188.2 innings last season, and had thrown 200+ the four seasons before that. That type of durability is huge especially with how many injuries we see pitchers face over the year. Over those five years he has put up a 3.50 ERA and 3.41 FIP while averaging 181.4 strikeouts a year. Pitching his career on a lowly White Sox team left much to be desired out of Quintana in the win column. Being traded to the Cubs was one of the best things that could happen to Quintana, as he moved from the AL to the NL, and to a team with one of the most potent offenses. Quintana would go 7-3 for the Cubs, with a 3.74 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 84.1 innings. Even more importantly, he saw his K/9 jump from 9.4 with the White Sox to 10.5 with the Cubs. Look for Quintana to build upon that success last year in his first full season with the Cubs. His increased strikeout rate, and ability to get a win every time he goes out there behind a powerhouse Cubs team makes him especially attractive in weekly H2H leagues.
Heartaches:
A.J. Pollock:
Might as well start with the one that is that’s the most painful and close to home. A former favorite of mine, A.J. Pollock may have been the guy that inspired me to write this. Of course now that I did he will go have a career year. Speaking of, his 2015 in which he hit .315 and went 20/39 has blinded me for too long but I refuse to buy-in again. The guy has talent, but he cannot stay on the field consistently enough to be a reliable H2H producer. A fractured elbow in 2016 and hampering groin/leg injuries have limited him to just 124 games over the past two years. He has missed a significant amount of time in three out of his five seasons in the bigs and seems to be a common trend. His speed used to be his most appealing asset but his lower body injuries and the fact that he is now 30 may limit Pollock’s effectiveness in stolen bases. And in case you didn’t hear, they installed a humidor at Chase Field which may cap Pollock’s power. He is such a tease and has great per game numbers, but it is not a risk I’m willing to take in H2H leagues anymore.
This may just be the year where I start cutting ties with non-Paul Goldschmidt DBacks hitters in fantasy. It actually has less to do with the humidor, and more to do with his inability to hit lefties and in the second half. In H2H leagues, those are two big no-nos. Hitters that struggle against a certain handiness can be wildly inconsistent and frustrating in weekly matchups. Lamb is a career .159 hitter with a 32.4% K rate in 358 plate appearances against lefties. Maybe he’s been improving lately in that department? Nope. He hit .144 in 156 appearances in 2017, whiling striking out in just over half (50.9%) of them. Ouch. Of course he did hit .282 with 25 home runs in 479 plate appearances against righties last year. Sure you could play him just against righties, but that is a real pain in weekly H2H leagues. When you factor in that he’s a terrible second half hitter, his H2H appeal really dwindles. He is a career .220 hitter in 918 plate appearances in the second half. His power drops off too, as he has 27 HR in 918 first-half appearances compared to 42 in 834 second-half appearances. Okay so just sit him against lefties, and then also sit him in the second half when the most important games are being played? Sounds like a great H2H player to me…
Chris Davis:
Chris Davis hit home runs and struck out a bunch before it was cool to hit home runs and strike out a bunch. He used to be a batting average drain that would give you 30, 40, maybe 50 home runs a season so it was bearable. As the environment has changed and there are more players like Chris Davis, his value diminishes further entering his age-32 season. His .215 average and league-leading 37.2% K rate from 2017 just won’t cut it anymore in a league where home runs are more abundant. Guys that strike out that much are just tough to depend on in any given week and are sure to turn in some poor matchups. I don’t play them really but if you’re in a points league that penalizes strikeouts, avoid this guy like the plague. Crush Davis is a pretty sweet nickname but I can see opposing pitchers doing most of the crushing this season.
Rick Porcello:
Okay I don’t think you can get more inconsistent then going from 22-4 and winning a Cy Young award in 2016 to losing 17 games, posting an ERA of 4.65, and letting up a league-leading 38 home runs the following year. Just a taaad of a difference wouldn’t you agree? Not-So-Pretty-Ricky was easily one of the most frustrating pitchers to own last year, and I don’t blame those burned for not wanting to give him another go. In fact, it is pretty evident that 2016 was his outlier year and he is much closer to what we saw last year. Though he does eat a good amount of innings, his variability and problem with the long ball makes him a tough guy to trust in H2H leagues. He has never recorded a sub 3.40 ERA other than in 2016, and his career 6.32 K/9 certainly isn’t thrilling. I prefer high K upside pitchers in H2H leagues if I’m rolling with someone known to be inconsistent. Having the Sox offense behind him certainly doesn’t hurt, but it will take a lot for Porcello to be trustworthy in weekly formats.
Who do you think is a H2H Hero or Heartache? Let me know your thoughts on guys you see get a bump or minus in H2H formats below.
More importantly, we finally have some REAL baseball, best of luck to everyone this season!
