I was the last one. It didn’t matter what it was, my family was not well flush with the monies so I watched as my friends got the latest and greatest toys and game while I had to wait, and wait, and wait to get the same toy/game if I ever got it at all. On the holidays I wouldn’t open presents, we’d go down to the store and look at what I was going to get later, after getting it on layaway.
But don’t think I was any less thankful. Hey, I didn’t know any better and may have been better off in a lot of ways for having to live that way. But that’s not what I’m talking about here. When I finally did get that toy/game, it was almost always passe’, beyond its value already. Everyone else was onto the next so I made do with what I had.
In DFS, there is a similar, less warm and fuzzy things that happens when folks jump on the trending toy. They chase the previous performance and end up overpaying for what has already happened rather than look to see what was going to be the hot sexy item tomorrow.
Recency bias. It was the same thing I wrote about Corey Kluber last week. I relished the fact that I knew folks were going to steer clear because of his 5+ ERA and the fact that, most recently, he had burned them in games. Everything else was screaming that he was due to get his sexy back, but he was fairly low owned when we rostered him last Wednesday.
It’s not always a bad thing to jump aboard a bandwagon. Sometimes they run on pretty well. Kluber followed up last week’s told-you-so special with another beaut. And Bryce Harper’s heater has gone on long enough to be dangerous to the touch.
Still, chances are if you are paying based on yesterday, you’ll miss out on today. Look at everything, disregard yesterday. If your research says he should be good today, then do it, man, put him on the board! But if things aren’t in his favor, think twice and don’t do it just because he did well yesterday.
The same is true for bad performance. If you see that your guy should be good to go for his matchup, but his recent play looks stinky, don’t hesitate, beat the crowd to the performance and reap the rewards.
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Tyson Ross, SP: $9,000 – The top priced starter of the night isn’t my favorite play, but for cash games, he has a number of factors in his favor that warrant this inclusion. 1) He’s one of the more favored SP of the day for Vegas, at -145. 2) He’s at home in San Diego, where he has pitched considerably well so far this year, with over 30% K rate and a 2.76 xFIP. 3) Vegas also has the total runs for this game at 6.5, the lowest total of the night.
Joe Kelly, SP: $4,900 – His price is so ridiculously low, it has to be done. His home ERA is 3.47 and he posts a K-rate of 22% as well. He’s also closing in on 50% ground ball rate there, too. Toss in the Rangers growing K-rates and their bottom ten rankings away from home and vs. RHP, and Kelly starts to look really good. The Red Sox are also THE favorite on the slate, at -165.
Russell Martin, C: $4,400 – There isn’t a whole lot going on at catcher and since we want a piece of the Toronto game (O/U at 9), we’ll go with the moderately priced Martin. Russell has done well over the last 30 days in the hard hitting metrics and gets Jered Weaver as the opposing pitcher.
Roberto Perez/Brett Hayes, C: $2,500/$3,500 – Both Indians catchers have been hitting the ball hard, even if they aren’t high in the order. Perez plays the majority of the time, but it’s almost rest-time for Perez, so watch the lineups. The Indians get the LHP Rodon, who has struggled with control. The run total is set at eight, so there will be some opportunities for these guys in tournament play.
Freddie Freeman, 1B: $4,600 – I can’t turn away from Freeman at this price, especially with a good weather day to hit in Atlanta. Freeman has been either at the top or near the top of all the power metrics all season among first basemen, so you’re getting a slight discount in a good matchup with good weather.
Adam Lind, 1B: $4,400 – Lind has also been up there all year, but it seems like folks just get bored of rostering the guy. Maybe it’s the Mr. Softball look he has, but all he does is rake. The MIL/DET game is a sneaky game, especially on the Brewers side, as they have started to hit.
Alex Guerrero, 2B/3B: $2,900 – Confession time. I pretty much play Guerrero whenever he is in the lineup for the Dodgers. The price is insanely low for a hitter of his caliber as he is top 10 in power and hard hitting. Check the lineups to see if he can make cash lineups as I would do tourney only if he’s batting lower than fifth.
Neil Walker, 2B: $3,900 – Walker keeps raking in anonymity in Pittsburgh as this team can’t get going at all this season. However, Mike Pelfrey is the opponent for Walker and his cohorts and Walker has maintained his rake to make the most of the home matchup.
Eduardo Escobar, SS/OF: $3,100 – Totally off the radar for many, Escobar has been a hard hitting machine the last 30 days, especially over the last two weeks. The matchup is against Locke and Escobar has hit LHP better. His stats don’t show it, but he is hitting the ball hard. See our lead-in for why I stand by Escobar and an outfielder listed below.
Brock Holt, 3B/OF: $3,300 – Pablo Sandoval got hit by a pitch Tuesday night and while it’s not expected to be serious, we will probably see him take a night off in the aftermath, leaving Mr. Holt in position to eat some high-in-the-order at-bats.
Trevor Plouffe, 3B: $3,800 – Trevor Plouffe against a lefty. This is something I like a lot, every time. Toss in the decent run total for the game, the tepid feeling I get about Jeff Locke as a starter and the sub 4K price and I will likely be rostering Plouffe in a lot of contests.
Gerardo Parra, OF: $3,400 – Parra has been playing very well since assuming a regular spot in the Brewers lineup. He has been moved all over the lineup card and rarely takes a walk, but he has been hitting the ball really hard and with power, and with his price he makes a good play against the struggling Shane Greene.
Ryan Raburn, OF: $3,100 – He got back into the lineup against Quintana Tuesday night after returning from an injury and while he didn’t scratch, he’s still an excellent play against the less accomplished Rodon.
Justin Ruggiano, OF: $3,400 – Part of a nicely inexpensive Mariners stack in an 8.5 total game, Ruggiano has been hitting with enough authority to warrant rostering, especially with Seattle typically batting him higher in the lineup vs. LHP.
Joc Pederson, OF: $3,900 – The Joc Pederson fun-run on rosters is over, as his ownership (and now price) has dropped considerably since his raging peak a couple of weeks ago. The bigger news is that he’s still smacking the ball hard and batting on top of the Dodgers lineup. So while others have left the party, the price is right to pour some more Pederson punch for yourself.
Jay Bruce, OF: $4,200 – Ah, the aforementioned outfielder whose metrics belie his poor overall stats. Bruce is hitting for mondo power, scoring in the top 15 over the last 30 days in expected power. He has a nice matchup against one of the worst pitchers this season, the Royals’ Jeremy Guthrie and though the weather is not ideal for slugging, Bruce can deliver anyway, making him an excellent tourney play.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The only game to be concerned about is a game that everyone is going to be concerned about. The Rockies hosting the Phillies would likely have a nice run total, but the thunderstorms are forecasted to rain early and rain often, making the game, at least initially, very unlikely to get played.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Vegas has the high lines for the day in Toronto, where the Jays take on Jered Weaver and the Angels and in Boston, where our man Joe Kelly takes on the Rangers. Both games carry a nine run total. On the low side, as mentioned, the Padres and Cubs are forecasted out to a piddly 6.5 game total. And Kelly and the Sox are the most heavily favored team with their -165 line.