Did you immediately ask, “What is happening?” If so, stay tuned to read what is happening: the second half of the season is upon us; the trade deadline is here, too. When you read “It’s Happening”, what do you think of? I think we all have a slightly different opinion based on our favorite team/player. Is your team/player on a heater coming into the second half allowing you to say “It’s Happening” with a big smile on your face or is your team/player injured or lagging behind statistically changing your delivery of “It’s Happening” with a roll of the eyes or heavy sigh?
What else is happening? Well, leading up to and powering through All-Star Week, we learned the Mariners might just be for real as they rode a 14-game winning streak into the break (longest in MLB history BTW). Side Note: this run started after the benches cleared against the Angels. As the resident M’s fan, I check in every night. Annnnnd, just like that the win streak is over with the 5-2 Astros win over the Mariners on Friday night. We also started reading the term “fire sale” and heard about those teams that may be sellers this Summer. Who will buy; who will sell? The next 10 days will prove ‘It’s Happening’. It is a fun time to watch the ticker to see players move teams like when you used to trade baseball cards in the playground. It is a fun time of the baseball season, so let us all enjoy it!
What else did we learn in watching the All-Star Game? If it was not previously obvious, there are a lot of really good power hitters in baseball and the game appears somewhat reduced to power hitters versus old-school baseball that included hit-and-run, moving runners over, stolen bases, and overall good old fashioned baseball. We also learned that arms appear better than bats at this point in the season. The All-Star Game saw five total runs, four as the result of three HR and a mind-boggling 22 strikeouts. Simple math shows 1/3 of outs made via K. No pitcher went longer than one inning and seven of them had at least two strikeouts (Manoah and Clase K’d the side in their inning). I am not sure I am telling you anything you did not already know as much as reinforcing the point that power hitters are necessary in real and fake baseball but the starting pitching is much thinner and can determine your outcome at the top or bottom of the standings.
Time to make some money on the first weekend back from the break and hoping that your season-long leagues see you win the short week with some sneaky daily moves.
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Alek Manoah, SP: DK: $8,100 / FD: $9,600 – Coming off of his mic’d up moment at the ASG, Manoah now has a bevy of additional fans. What a great coming-out party for casual fans knowing nothing of the Ace from the Great White North. Certainly, the BoSox have a solid offense (at the top), but they can also be worked into a ton of K’s. I look for Manoah to ride his ASG high (and clean inning) into his first start of the second half and the Jays offense to give him enough support for a win. Let’s be honest here, a power arm with a sub 2.30 ERA and 103 Ks, pitching the majority of his games in the AL East, is absolutely one you should consider every five days. Spoiler Alert – What you will not see below are bats in support of Manoah, but you could easily plug-and-play most Toronto bats at Boston. Vlad, Bichette, Springer, Kirk, Teoscar are all Top 14 Hittertron recommendations, so feel free to stack the Jays. Since the Razzball site is so high on the Jays bats, I will hand you a few other options. Choices are always a good thing especially when you need to factor in a DFS salary cap. Funny enough, I wrote the majority of this piece on Friday and had no idea the Jays would get a jump start on my recommendations by throwing four touchdowns on the board. I say keep it rolling with those Jays players!
Zack Wheeler, SP: DK: $9,700 / FD: $10,600 – If only you could get a price break based on Streamanator rankings. Imagine being able to roster this Cy Young candidate for the 32nd highest salary? Alas, you cannot find that pricing anywhere. With that being said, you have to pay attention to Wheeler’s sub 3.00 ERA/1.10 WHIP and his Ks over one per inning. Couple that with an evening affair against the lackluster Cubs lineup and you have the makings of an Ace for Saturday. If you need a little more to make this decision, factor in the Phillies lineup versus Marcus Stroman and his 4.70 ERA.
Travis d’Arnaud, C: DK: $4,900 / FD: $2,900 – I am going back to an old friend here with d’Arnaud. Catcher is extremely top-heavy and as much as I want to recommend Will Smith, I did so prior to the break and will pivot away from him today. I also looked at Adley Rutchsman for about half a second and realized I do not want to face Gerritt Cole to lead off my lineup. Now, if we see the Cole that gives up the farm, then Adley will be a great play. For now, I am leaning toward d’Arnaud at home against lefty Patrick Sandoval. I think the Braves are going to start heating up post-break like they did last year and the humidity in ATL is always an issue for West Coast arms. I fully expect the Braves to get into the Angels bullpen relatively early.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: DK: $5,500 / FD: $4,300 – Are we looking at the front runner for the NL MVP? Maybe we are. Citing the intro paragraph about the ASG, we saw exactly what we have come to expect for Goldy, the current Hittertron #7 ranked bat. He smashed a 400+ foot HR off Shane McClanahan and put the NL on top early. Dude is absolutely locked in and faces lefty Mike Minor (6.21 ERA/1.48 WHIP) at the Great American Small Park. With the likes of Edman batting ahead and Arenado behind him, Goldy is primed for a massive weekend. Pay up for the guy and know you are rostering the top OPS 1B; almost .070 points ahead of Freddie Freeman.
Marcus Semien, 2B: DK: $5,300 / FD: $3,200 – One of the more disappointing Top 30 draft picks for 2022 has quietly started to heat up. Sure his batting average is still below .250, but take a look at his recent stats and you should be able to place him in your lineup with confidence. Over his last 15 games, Semien comes in at an even .300 with four HR and 10 RBI. Mix in five steals and you have the makings of a significant fantasy line. Couple Semien’s recent accomplishments with Albies still being out, Story on the IL and the news Friday that Jazz is probably down for 6-8 weeks and Semien makes even more sense.
Austin Riley, 3B: DK: $5,700 / FD: $4,100 – It is official. My favorite 3B is Austin Riley. The only thing keeping him from being considered the best is probably years of historical stats. He is young and his numbers are undeniable. He is in the conversation with JRam, Machado, Devers, and Arenado, and rightfully so. He leads all MLB 3B in HR (27), is second only to JRam in RBI (61), and simply needs to cut down on his Ks (103) to solidify himself at the top of the food chain. Similar to d’Arnaud above, he gets the lefty Sandoval Saturday which should prove to be the perfect start to the second half.
Gleyber Torres, SS: DK: $5,000 / FD: $3,100 – Our old friend Gleyber is really starting to find his form and what better time than coming out of the All-Star Break to start carrying season-long and DFS teams? In some formats, he qualifies at both 2B and SS, so look to maximize his eligibility when it benefits you. The power exists and he needs to find that RF/RCF and until that happens, I think it is worth noting Torres is scorching at .338 over the past 15 games. He is sprinkling a little power and a little speed and the RBI are coming in bunches. With that formidable NYY lineup, there will undoubtedly be ducks on the pond for him in the second half. He started the second half with a HR on Thursday and I look for him to keep raking over the weekend. I think you get a little bit of a price discount over names like T. Turner, Bogaerts, Seager, and Timmy, so take what you can get.
Juan Soto, OF: DK: $5,800/ FD: $4,000 – As mentioned above, the recently crowned HR Derby champion just turned down a fifteen year, $440M contract extension from the Nationals and has become the darling of the trade deadline. Said deadline is 10 days away and I fully expect Soto to be moved. Washington will demand a king’s ransom and the team acquiring Soto should pay it. We are talking a generational talent in his 23 year-old season. He is still under team control through the end of 2024 which gives the new team time to negotiate a monster extension. Frankly, I think the Nationals are not run well and Soto wants out of town. If I had his ear, I would let him know there is no state income tax in Washington (West Coast version) so his money goes further with a contract in Seattle. I digress…Soto in the desert on Saturday is a no-brainer for me, especially coming off the HR Derby high. He is swinging for a massive payday and I think the next 10 days will be huge for Soto. Though I am not normally a fan of lefty on lefty match-ups from a batter’s perspective, Soto is different and Bumgarner is not the same guy since leaving SF. Pay up and start Soto, Hittertron’s #17 rated bat, with full confidence.
Julio Rodriguez, OF: DK: $5,600 / FD: $3,900 – If Goldy is leading the NL in the early MVP race (and I think he is), then JROD is way out in front for the AL ROY. In fact, it is time to place your futures bet on Julio for the ROY. It is his award to lose at this point. He leads all rookies in HR and steals, while his K rate has markedly dropped. From a guy that grew up in the Kingdome and watched a young Junior Griffey make his debut for the Mariners, I have not felt that feeling since 1989…until Julio broke through about a month ago. He is must-watch TV and I continue to say “it’s happening” when it comes to the ride Julio has just started on. I will happily roster him in all formats on all days just so I have another reason to watch him. As mentioned above, Jazz is out 6-8 weeks, which means Julio rockets into the lead as the most fun player to watch in MLB. It’s happening…enjoy the ride! Take note that Julio sat on Friday (sore wrist). Ensure he is playing prior to locking your lineup or play it safe and add one of the Toronto OF listed above in his place.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No weather to report for Saturday.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I will happily place my Saturday money on Toronto and the Over runs. Also, if you have not done so already, look into the future’s bets for names like Verlander (AL CY), Goldschmidt (NL MVP, and JROD (AL ROY). All of these should bring positive money.
