Hey Razzballers, I’m rosineater, and I’ll be handling the Monday DFS duties this season.
I’m a longtime DFS player and a student of the game, so along with your DFS picks I’ll be sharing some theory and strategy along the way.
Today’s focus will be on the 11-game DraftKings slate that starts at 7:05 ET.
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Before we get to today’s picks, let’s talk about some of MLB’s rule changes and how they should impact DFS.
The first change is the limitation of the defensive shift, which had been hampering offense and killing left-handed hitters in particular. This year we will see more base hits than we have in recent seasons and, by extension, more RBIs and runs.
Another set of changes affects base stealing. A pitcher may only attempt to pick off a runner three times, and should that third attempt fail, the runner advances on a balk. In addition, the bases have been made significantly larger. We’re going to see more stolen bases.
We may see a lot more. On opening day alone there were 21 successful steals with only two runners caught stealing. That’s a 91% success rate (MLB average last season was 75%). Last opening day there were five successful steals. It’s too early to tell how this will play out over the course of the season, but most experts are estimating a 25-30% increase in stolen bases.
Despite these changes, power is still king. So far this season we’ve seen 15 hitters reach 30 or more DK points in a game, and all of them homered at least once. All five hitters who have had 40 point games homered at least twice.
However, with more hits and stolen bases we can expect that compared to previous seasons a greater percentage of the overall offense will be produced outside of home runs.
I’ll get more into stacking next time but for now, we should expand our thinking about the kinds of players we are willing to use, both in our stacks and as one-off plays.
With that in mind, let’s get to the picks!
Drew Rasmussen, P $8100 – The Rays’ starting pitching blew the Tigers away and now they roll into Washington to face another projected bottom-5 offense. They’ll start Rasmussen, who pitched like an ace in the second half of 2022.
Michael Grove, P $5600 – He’s dirt cheap, he’s stretched out as a starter and if he’s on he has the stuff to get through five against the Rockies. It’s risky, but I think we can go here on a slate with few safe pitchers but many bats we want to pay up for.
Will Smith, C: $5,000 – Ryan Feltner is a Rockies prospect with decent stuff, but he’s out of his league here. Enter Will Smith, one of the few catchers I don’t mind paying up for. He’s the best catcher in the best spot of the slate. Don’t overthink it.
Freddie Freeman, 1B: $5,700 – Sensing a pattern? I want Dodgers tonight and I want five of them. Unfortunately, they will be a lot of people’s favorite stack, so if you play them try to make your stack different than the straight one through five hitters.
Brandon Lowe, 2B: $3,700 – Last season Trevor Williams struggled against left-handed hitters to the tune of an 8.8% strikeout rate. Williams can be thankful that the Rays are righty-heavy but he’ll have to contend with Lowe, who gets a park upgrade, crushes righties, and carries a laughable price tag. He missed a start yesterday due to a toe bruise, so make sure he’s in the lineup.
Rafael Devers, 3B: $5900 – The Red Sox are my second-favorite stack tonight. Johan Oviedo is a decent worm-burner, but he doesn’t strike a lot of guys out. If he ends up on the wrong side of variance he could have a rough night, and the bullpen behind him is very attackable.
Alex Verdugo, OF: $4,300 – Know who else doesn’t strike out a lot? Alex Verdugo. Let’s test the theory and see if his lefty swing can get a few through the infield.
James Outman, OF: $2,800 – Hopefully he’s down in the lineup and goes somewhat unnoticed. He strikes out a lot but has plenty of power, patience, and speed.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The only real trouble spot is Seattle, which could see enough rain to impact the game. Slight chance of rain in KC, Texas, and Oakland as well.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I kind of wish the Twins/Marlins game was on the DraftKings slate because I like the pitching. I’ll take the under on the 7.5 total.
Also, give me the over on the 8 total in the Braves/Cards game. Charlie Morton has struggled against the Cards in his career and Jake Woodford is in a tough spot as well. I also like this as a place to look for low-owned stacks for large-field GPP’s.
