Something tells me this post might never see the light of day. Yet on the flip side, this post also felt like an inevitable eventuality. That’s what happens when a guy has a major league ready bat but gets placed at a sub-optimal fielding position for his talents. And thus begins the deep league story of our hero of this piece, Wilmer Flores. We’re bordering on a Greek tragedy over here, really. Not of the Oedipus level, though…because gross. Of course that doesn’t mean he hasn’t slept with someone’s mom at this stage because every tweet about Wilmer Flores is a sideways glance at who are the Mets going to get to play short to replace him. Heck, they might find a defensive replacement before the season starts. As we see, there’s nothing safe about drafting Flores this year but the appeal is still there. Why? Trudge on. Here’s my take on why Flores is a great SS get for deep leagues for the 2015 Fantasy Baseball season…
Let’s have some fun with numbers. Over the off-season, Wilmer played in a Venezuelan winter league. In said league, he gathered 90 at-bats. In those 90 at-bats, he had a .322 average to go with 6 HRs. Daps! But real baseball analysts would point to this: 6 errors at SS. Not so daps! There’s a reason that Flores will be going late in drafts and it’s not because of his lumber. In 68 starts in the field last year (18 at 2B and 50 at SS), Flores hit 6 HRs in 252 ABs to go with a .254 average with a .131 ISO. I heard you just say meh. But here’s some rays of hope with those numbers. One, look at his AAA numbers in 2014: 13 dingers, .323 average, and a .245 ISO over 22) ABs. And let’s not forget he was still ‘learning’ short when he was called up. Some baseball reality to douse your fantasy: as much as you enjoy multi-positional eligibility, it is a mind drain on your fantasy bats. If you don’t believe me, just ask how Carlos Santana owners felt to start the 2014 campaign. Another cool stat: 11.3%. No, that’s not the percentage chance of you getting to bed Jennifer Lawrence; we both know that’s way lower. Nah, it’s Wilmer’s K rate last year. He also only walked 4.4% of the time but if I had to choose between a high contact rate from a 23 year old or a high walk rate, I’ll take the high contact rate any time. It’s really hard to hit a HR or a double after ball 4, ya know? If you can’t lay off, at least be able to make contact until you figure out which ones are no good for you. Just ask Salvador Perez (3.7% walk rate over 606 PA). Oh yeah, and didn’t I just say he’s only 23? Wilmer has already proven he can bring his walk and strikeout rates with him from the minor leagues at a young age, this could be the year he brings the rest. Don’t believe me? Well how about listening to a friend and former writer of the site, RotoBanter? Now he doesn’t have the home ballpark that Nolan Arenado does but the rest of those numbers are hard to ignore. IF (<– Yes, that’s a big if) Flores can stick at SS, he can stick in your lineups and in a more important place: your heart. I mean, who doesn’t want 15-18 HRs and a .270+ average from their second shortstop? Rhetorical. Wilmer is a boom/bust play you don’t have to pay for to get either result. Let’s hope his greek tragedy at defense turns into a triumph this year.
Honorable SS Mentions
Jed Lowrie – His ISO has gone down from .194 in 2012 to .156 in 2013 down to .106 last year and he’s not getting any younger. That said, the same reasons I wrote a Jed Lowrie Sleeper post in 2013 can still be there. I don’t think there’s much hope for a 20 HR season out of him but if he can bounce back to hitting .270 and smack 15 HRs, it’s hard to be sad taking him. His biggest culprit is he’s only had one season over 140 games played. Not surprisingly, it was his best. You have to hope lightning strikes twice if you’re taking him this year.
Jose Ramirez – The positives: he’s got 30 steal potential, he’s just 22 and should be a benefit to your hitting average. The negatives: you could say similar things about Francisco Lindor to go with his plus defense and Lindor sits atop the Indians prospect rankings heading into 2015 a year younger, whereas Ramirez was merely #6 in 2014. That said, if you’re looking for an Elvis Andrus’ish shortstop late, Ramirez could be just that. Just remember, so could Lindor. Hopefully they don’t become an SS portmanteau: Josisco?
Chris Owings – Honestly, this was probably the smarter pick but his off-season shoulder issues give me pause and the resigning of Cliff Pennington makes me almost push the mute button. Fast forward to May and we see him as the sleeper he should’ve been and I might just have to throw my DVR out the window. All this to say, if he’s healthy, Owings will get plenty of love so he doesn’t need mine.
