When thinking about the Colorado Rockies organization, great pitching is probably the last thing that comes to mind. The main reason for this is that there just hasn’t been much of it throughout their brief history, due in large part to the launching pad that is known as Coors Field. Mike Hampton was a former runner up in the Cy Young voting and frontline starter prior to producing a disastrous 5.75 ERA during his two seasons in Colorado. Denny Neagle was a two time All-Star and former 20 game winner who struggled mightily in a Rockies uniform. It’s pretty telling when Jorge de la Rosa, Aaron Cook, and Jeff Francis are some of the most successful pitchers in franchise history. The bottom line is fairly obvious – pitchers generally don’t fare well in Colorado. However, current ace Jon Gray is doing his best to buck the trend of underwhelming production from Rockies hurlers. Will he prove to be the exception to the rule or will he just be another in a long line of Rockies pitchers to avoid?
Let’s take a look at Gray’s profile to determine if his current success is sustainable moving forward. Here are a few thoughts and observations:
• He throws really hard. Gray’s 95.2 mph average fastball velocity is the 5th highest mark out of 86 qualified MLB starting pitchers this season. This doesn’t guarantee success by itself, of course, as two of the four SPs ahead of him on the velocity leaderboard are Nathan Eovaldi and Yordano Ventura, but it certainly helps when pitching in the thin air of Coors Field, where offspeed stuff is much less effective. With this in mind, it’s certainly beneficial to Gray that…
• His slider is one of the best pitches in baseball. Gray’s slider, which he’s thrown 28% of the time in 2016 (10th highest among qualified starters), has stymied opponents to the tune of a .487 OPS against and boasts a 24.8% SwStr% against that offering as well. Pairing elite velocity with a dominant, wipeout pitch helps to explain why…
• He’s racking up the strikeouts. Gray’s 9.35 K/9 is the 13th highest rate among qualified starting pitchers, his 11.6 SwStr% is currently the 12th highest rate. These rates are especially impressive when considering the facts that…
• His control and home run prevention are above average as well. Gray’s 2.89 BB/9 is technically only slightly better than league average (2.96 BB/9), but his 1.06 HR/9 is extremely impressive considering where he makes half of his starts. That home run rate is well below the league average for SPs (1.21 HR/9) and lower than that of players such as Cole Hamels, Jon Lester, and Max Scherzer.
Bottom line: Despite pitching in the most hitter-friendly environment in Major League Baseball, Jon Gray has begun to live up to his status as the #3 overall pick in the 2013 MLB draft. It’s still wise to exercise caution in difficult matchups at Coors due to occasional bumps in the road (4.84 home ERA), but outside of two iffy starts to open the season, he’s only allowed more than two earned runs in just two out of his eight home starts since then. On the road, he’s been much better, allowing two runs or less in seven out of ten starts. He’s one of just three starting pitchers this season to average more than a strikeout per inning with a BB/9 under three while averaging at least 95 mph on his fastball. The other two? Jose Fernandez and Noah Syndergaard. Let the other owners in your league be scared away by the Coors factor.
Final Verdict:
