Entering the 2016 season, there were plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Miami Marlins superstar outfielder Giancarlo Stanton. Pitcher-friendly Marlins Park underwent renovations to move in and lower the outfield fences. One of the greatest hitters in MLB history, Barry Bonds, was hired as the team’s new hitting coach. His supporting cast was largely constructed of players such as Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and Dee Gordon who were entering their peak years. He appeared to be fully recovered from the devastating facial and hand injuries that he suffered over the previous two seasons, and even switched to a new bat in order to ease the pressure on his hands when he swings. Everything seemed to be in place for a career year for the 26-year-old slugger. However, things didn’t exactly go according to plan early on. What went wrong and has Stanton righted the ship?
Let’s take a look at Stanton’s profile to determine what’s going on with the young slugger. Here are a few thoughts and observations:
• It’s been a tale of two seasons. Stanton’s overall numbers (88 GP, 373 PA, 46 runs, 22 HR, 59 RBI, 0 SB, .245/.336/.500) are somewhat disappointing when considering the expectations that were placed on him coming into the season, but he’s picked up his production considerably in recent weeks. Check out these seasonal splits:
First 55 games: 230 PA, 22 runs, 12 HR, 29 RBI, 29 BB, 80 SO, .193/.301/.416 BA/OBP/SLG
Last 33 games: 143 PA, 24 runs, 10 HR, 30 RBI, 13 BB, 39 SO, .326/.392/.628 BA/OBP/SLG
Stanton has gone from late-career Adam Dunn production over the first two and a half months of the season to prime Miguel Cabrera production over the last six weeks. A big reason for this turnaround is the fact that…
• He’s making contact more consistently. Over those first 55 games, Stanton had a 34.8% K% as well as a 16.8% SwStr%. Among current MLB qualifiers, those rates would place him first and second in those respective categories. In his last 33 games, Stanton has produced a 27.3% K% and a 12.6% SwStr%, which represent improvements of 7.5% and 4.2% respectively. Perhaps most importantly, he’s improved his O-Contact% from 33.3% to 57.4% over that span. It’s not only that Stanton is making more frequent contact, but…
• He’s making higher quality contact as well. Stanton has cut down on his ground ball percentage (43.2% to 40.0%), increased his line drive percentage (14.4% to 17.8%), and improved his hard contact percentage (39.0% to 44.4%) over the last six weeks. Speaking of high quality contact, it’s also worth noting that…
• His power is as prolific as ever. In case you missed this year’s home run derby, Stanton put on a show by smashing a record-setting 61 bombs in the contest. More importantly for fantasy owners, he’s produced a .302 ISO over his last 33 games and his .255 ISO this season is higher than those produced by sluggers such as Manny Machado, Mike Trout, and Chris Davis, among many others.
Bottom line: Giancarlo has experienced his share of adversity over the last couple of years. Having a fastball break the left side of your face and crushing your hamate bone on a violent swing will do that to you. He seems to have finally adjusted to all of the offseason changes though, with his new bat being the most notable one. This is just simply a vote of confidence for the big man. He’s back and as good as ever. Expect a .270ish average with 16-18 more bombs over the remainder of the season, and look to buy if Stanton’s owner has the slow start fresh on his mind.
Final Verdict:
