As we enter that time of year when the Super Two deadline has likely come and gone, many of baseball’s top prospects have either recently been promoted to the big leagues or are waiting by the phone in anticipation of a call-up in the near future. Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo, and Byron Buxton have all just arrived at the game’s highest level, while players like Corey Seager, Steven Matz, and Miguel Sano have their bags packed and are ready to make the leap when summoned. Amidst all of this excitement over the newest crop of young talent, some of the game’s most promising second and third year players have seemingly been pushed onto the back burner for the time being. It’s easy to forget that Mookie Betts was essentially the Buxton of 2014, an electric, potential five category contributor and future fantasy superstar. Is Betts still that same buzz-worthy player or was he just overhyped and overrated prior to this season?
First, let’s take a look at the numbers that he’s produced in his brief MLB career thus far:
| Season | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 52 | 213 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9.90% | 14.60% | 0.153 | 0.327 | 0.291 | 0.368 | 0.444 |
| 2015 | 63 | 270 | 6 | 27 | 28 | 10 | 7.40% | 12.20% | 0.151 | 0.268 | 0.253 | 0.309 | 0.404 |
Betts has followed up his impressive rookie campaign with a fairly similar showing this season. While his walk and strikeout rates are slightly lower this year, the biggest difference is in his BABIP which is 59 points lower this season, and helps to explain the 38 point drop in batting average.
Is that change in BABIP due to luck or has something changed in Betts’ profile? Let’s check out his batted ball data to see if there are any significant differences in that area:
| Season | GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | Soft% | Med% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1.05 | 20.90% | 40.50% | 38.60% | 11.50% | 8.20% | 13.20% | 50.90% | 35.90% |
| 2015 | 0.82 | 19.70% | 36.20% | 44.10% | 11.70% | 6.40% | 17.20% | 53.00% | 29.80% |
While Betts has seen his fly ball percentage rise 5.5% and his hard hit percentage fall 6.1% from 2014 to 2015, everything else is pretty much in line with what he produced during his rookie season, and doesn’t fully match up with the steep drops in BABIP and batting average. If he maintains this profile, there’s likely to be a correction coming in those two areas.
What can we expect from Betts going forward? Let’s take a look at a couple of players who compare somewhat favorably to him, Cleveland Indians outfielder Michael Brantley and Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler (all stats shown are through each player’s age 24 season):
| Name | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts | 116 | 487 | 11 | 61 | 46 | 17 | 8.40% | 13.10% | 0.27 | 0.335 | 0.421 | 0.333 | 110 |
| Ian Kinsler | 120 | 474 | 14 | 65 | 55 | 11 | 8.40% | 13.50% | 0.286 | 0.347 | 0.454 | 0.345 | 102 |
| Michael Brantley | 214 | 942 | 10 | 111 | 79 | 27 | 6.80% | 14.10% | 0.265 | 0.316 | 0.359 | 0.3 | 87 |
Based on these results, Betts compares quite favorably to Kinsler and is a superior offensive player to Brantley at similar points in those players’ respective careers. In order to paint a complete picture, the following two tables contain the batted ball and plate discipline data for these three players with stats accrued through their age 24 seasons:
| Name | BABIP | GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | Soft% | Med% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Kinsler | 0.304 | 0.8 | 20.60% | 35.30% | 44.20% | 13.80% | 8.80% | 12.80% | 60.20% | 27.00% |
| Mookie Betts | 0.293 | 0.9 | 20.30% | 37.70% | 42.00% | 11.50% | 7.00% | 15.60% | 52.10% | 32.30% |
| Michael Brantley | 0.301 | 1.56 | 21.00% | 48.10% | 30.90% | 10.20% | 4.40% | 16.60% | 57.70% | 25.70% |
| Name | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Kinsler | 21.00% | 62.60% | 43.70% | 66.10% | 93.10% | 87.20% | 5.50% |
| Mookie Betts | 22.00% | 54.70% | 38.50% | 74.80% | 94.00% | 88.60% | 4.30% |
| Michael Brantley | 23.30% | 52.50% | 37.40% | 80.50% | 95.90% | 90.90% | 3.30% |
As you can see, there’s not much separating these three players across the board. Kinsler and Brantley have proven themselves to be solid power/speed threats with above average contact skills over the past few seasons, and Betts appears to possess a similar skill set.
The only question is what kind of production should be expected from Betts over the next few months. Kinsler produced a 20 homer, 23 steal season in 2007, his second full MLB season. Though he’s been a solid player throughout his career, Brantley was more of a late bloomer. His age 26 season in 2013 marked the first time that he reached double digits in home runs, and his true breakout didn’t occur until his age 27 season last year.
Betts appears to have more power than a young Brantley, more speed than Kinsler ever had, and is roughly on pace for a 15/25 season. If his BABIP luck begins to neutralize in the near future, a .275 average could very well come with it. He is definitely a potential difference maker for the 2nd half of the season.
Final Verdict:
