This is the best time of the year, next to when Shark Week is on TV. All the movement in real baseball sends a ripple throughout the fantasy universe and in most position player cases, the player is owned to the moon or already a contributor. Not so much in the realm of baseball’s forgotten warriors: the setup men. As teams scramble for bullpen help, it creates an everlasting (not really forever) waterfall effect that resonates to the new and old team. Take for example the Yankees/White Sox trade it has created job questions for five separate relievers: Betances, Robertson, Kahnle, Clippard and Swarzak. Now with all the hype surrounding trade rumors, it is best to identify the team who gets the bullpen help first, than the trading team second. Because the trading team usually is where the goodies are at. Anthony Swarzak looks to be the biggest beneficiary in the setup options, and yes, Clippard will be closing, but Swarzak will be there when Clippard gets dealt again whether it’s before or after the non-waiver trade deadline. So to summarize here, be speculative but not crazy. Pay attention to the reliever deals in place and realize that some pitchers get moved down a few pegs, but on the reflexive, some move up. Have at some juicy reliever tidbits, Cheers!.
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Well, the All-Star break happened and now here I sit. Only three games of data to expunge my sort of genius onto the masses… that’s like the Gettysburg Address stopping at “four score and seven”. So with limited research, I gotta get creative with words. Like, have you checked out Fantasy Soccer, yeah… it’s that oddly shaped ball at the top of this page. Don’t play? Well you should. So onto the number seven with bacon. Also known as the KC stealer. Over the past 15 games that oddly enough dates back when we were still celebrating fireworks and stuff, Whit Merrifield leads the majors in steals with 7. Big deal, 7 whole steals! Well, the steals bandwagon has lost some steam this year with Billy not doing consistent Billy things and Trea doing game-ready stuff at Chuck E. Cheese’s, but strangely enough he still needs an adult with him. Curse you baby-faced guys! Whit isn’t just a dead stick as he has revitalized the Royals line-up, as they have an unbelievable record since his insertion into the leadoff spot. It’s not George Springer-type good, but for SAGNOF, we take what we can get. Currently owned in half of the ESPN leagues, which means that he is owned in every RCL league (basically), so kudos for all of us that are paying attention. But on the happenstance that he isn’t owned, go grab him, do it gently though, he pees when he gets nervous.
Please, blog, may I have some more?We break from the usual 12 dollar salads, donkeys, and hypothermia to breakdown, in basic fashion, the relief rankings for the final 70-plus games. Why is this helpful you may ask? Because for trade target reasons or chasing saves for points, you may want guy A over guy B. With the relief ranks it is as fluid as a clogged sewer drain, because on any given week, the middling type closer can hit bumps in the road and be removed from contention. So if you are using this as a trade commodity in your quest to add saves, my advice is this add the elite only. Nothing lower than the top-12. These guys are all nailed on and in an impressive state, barring an injury obviously. Now with that, we also have to realize that trades will happen… and take one reliever from a good situation to a better one, then on the reflexive of that, it can turn one with a job into a set-up situation. Regardless, here is my stab at the top relief pitchers for the second half of the Fantasy Baseball season. Cheers!
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Please, blog, may I have some more?It’s the last post before the all-star break and nothing seems more fitting than a Neal Diamond reference. If you don’t like or appreciate Neal, then we have problems and I challenge you to a duel or whatever the young kids are doing now a days to show dominance. (Because I know it’s not anything like what transpired in West Side Story.) Moving on swiftly to the pressing closer news as I get lost in my ole timey spirit… So the Cardinals have moved away from the Oh and more to the Rosenthal. Trevor Rosenthal has sorta looked like he did three years ago, which seems like forever ago but really isn’t. The bad thing is that he and the rest of the save chasers that are in the Cardinals bullpen are pitching blah-squared. The best pitcher over the last 20 games is Matt Bowman… again. I said that same statement about a month into the season when Oh originally looked about as shaky as an 11-year-old with his first attempt at using a blow torch. Over the past 30 games the saves have gone Oh for 3, Rosenthal 1, Bowman 1 and Tyler Lyons with 1 (was a multiple innings save). Over the past 30 games for a usual dominant bullpen fixture, in terms of fantasy, to post 5 saves (I am not counting Lyons effort) is more condemning than the way they are pitching. If you are a Seung-Hwan Oh owner, you kinda have to hold the ship until it becomes more of an official thing. If Rosey is on your wire (55% owned in ESPN leagues) then nab him up. If you want to roster a RP with appeal, then Bowman is your guy (1.8% owned). As I can see it, Oh is still the guy but with some daylight for others. Just be leery that the past 30 days of track record for savedom have not been all that rosey for the Cards. Don’t frown, we got more goodies and sunshine after the bump. Cheers!
Please, blog, may I have some more?The fastest answer to the title is that no, you can not just fix what Trea Turner was giving you and the lack thereof for the next few weeks. Dude was a man among spatulas. Twenty two steals in the month of June alone was more then four teams in the entire majors. For fantasy, he was the only person over 20 in the last 30 games, only person in double digits in the last 15, and now he will get you zero for the next, presumably, six weeks… So where do you turn? The answer is: I wish I knew, because the waiver wire is not going to give you that type of production. Trade? Sure, if you have the assets, or you can just plain ignore the stat. Interestingly enough is that if he is gone from the league, it kind of evens the playing field for steals across the board. Billy hasn’t been Billy in some time, Dee is probably the most prestigious thief left right now is universally owned, and the waiver wire is littered with 2-3 steal guys every 10-game types. I am not saying that losing Trea Turner is a good thing… it is an excellent thing for everyone that doesn’t own him. If you are the sad owner of him, replacing Turner is not the biggest need. In reality, you just need to maintain the fort ion the steals department. That’s where me and this column come in. SAGNOF to your wildest content. The waivers are now your oyster at the SS, OF, or wherever you had TT employed. Moves a plenty should be made and don’t be afraid to play match-ups versus catchers or pitchers or both. Luckily for you, I have supplied one after the bump. Happy post-Independence day. Cheers!
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Bullpen Report: Giant Relief Problems
June 30, 2017 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 30 Commentsby: Smokey
Just when the ship couldn’t sink any lower, the Giants lost their closer for the second time this year. When it happens once, sure… twice? I have my doubts. Mark Melancon hit the DL with more arm ailments and received a PRP injection in his arm. No, a PRP injection isn’t something that you search for on your go-to-p0rn site of choice. It is never a good thing, especially for a scuffling team like the Giants. They have already had attempts at the closer with Derek law, Hunter Strickland/ and now re-tread candidate Sam Dyson is thrown into the fray. I mean, I am no Nostradamus here, but it doesn’t look good. It’s almost like that 2:00 AM special when you stare across the bar and try to decide if it’s better then going home alone and revisiting that PRP search on that website of choice. We saw earlier this year that Dyson is not to be trusted, granted that saves are saves are saves, but at what cost? An inflated ERA and 1-2 save chances a week… maybe. Hunter Strickland got the first save, but only because Dyson was plucked from the bullpen in 4-of-the-last-5. For a team that struggles to score runs, can’t keep the ball in the yard from a starting pitcher standpoint, and a bullpen with tons of failed attempts at a closer, the benefit just isn’t there. So if you must, the order as of right now is: Dyson, Strickland, then Kontos. But for a team with only 16 saves to show on the season, the chase is more exciting than the ownership. Enough about the city of Rice-A-Roni, and onto the week in Holds and such!
Please, blog, may I have some more?Y’all better be ready. (Gotta love some fantasy baseball puns that involve some Cypress Hill.) Well, even if you didn’t like it, I did. So there’s that. So A.A. Ron Hicks hit the DL with an oblique injury… but I have to ask: Why is it so oblique if we actually know what it is? If anything, it’s an un-oblique injury because we know what the injury is. Regardless, and I am dropping the “ir” because it is not a word, though it should be. Jacoby Ellsbury has returned like a stallion on a white stallion. Unfortunately for fantasy, Jacoby hasn’t been such since dunkaroos were still a cool snack. As a Yankee rooter, Hicks’ injury hurts because he is versatile and Ellsbury is just a DL nightmare. The rewards that you reaped from the waiver wire add of Hicks aren’t lost though, because it is a substitute by substitute principle. It’s like walking through the store and finding a 20 dollar bill. Only to realize that a month later it was your money to begin with. So reinvest that sorta found money to the waiver wire and keep digging. The expectations for Ellsbury should remain limited, but are boosted by where he bats in the Yankee lineup. Though in his SAGNOF defense, he did have 8 steals in just 149 plate appearances, so he does have some value as it relates to steals and such. And with the scuppering Yankees in a fall from fantasy grace, minus Judge, he could ease out some OF 4-5 value. Stay glued to that chair, more goodies after the jump on swipes, thievery and save-dom.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Closer Report: Andrew Miller, Death Of A Savesman
June 23, 2017 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 18 Commentsby: Smokey
In a full-on Willy Loman-type starring role, Andrew Miller now takes over the most responsible role in the Tribe’s bullpen. I beg to differ that he is taking over the most important role, and can argue that he has seen more high-leverage situations and save situations than his sort of disposed closer, Cody Allen… The only thing leading him to not be the most important factor in that pen was the stat of the save. Listen, Tito beats to the sound of his own drum and Arnold, nor Willis are going to tell him how to handle his bullpen. It is a luxury to have two top-10 overall relievers at his disposal and to use them how he sees fit. Miller, is by definition, the closer to save his arm for the future. But what we don’t realize is that if a save happens sooner than the 9th inning, Miller is going to be called on just like his original role. Confused? Yeah, it is kinda like saying: “Go look for the save in the corner of a circular room.” For ownership, this changes zero. Miller is and was owned as he should be in every league imaginable. Cody Allen is also owned and shouldn’t be dropped as he becomes the closer cuff in waiting, and is far superior to any RP on the waiver wire. So hold on tight! A month from now, when Miller has 5 saves and Allen has 3, not much stat wise will be lost, but by the end of the year when Allen has 32 and Miller 12, that is when we can look back on this and laugh and say “I shaved my eyebrows for this?” Stay tuned kids, more closer and bullpen-y type goodness are on the way…
Please, blog, may I have some more?Experiments are fun. When I was a youth, we used to play a game called killer UNO. Basically, the gist of the game was don’t get caught with the most cards. Similar to regular ole UNO, but this is where the killer part came in. The loser had to drink a concoction of any four things mixed together from the kitchen. So while you are trying to think of actually how gross that is and the possibilities, let’s look at the strange thing about four things soon to be in Milwaukee… (Including prized prospect Lewis Brinson or soon to be lack there of.) The way he is playing and the imminent return of Ryan Braun from the DL spells one thing: Minor leagues. He is being outplayed by Keon and even twice on Sunday. Subtle Domingo joke folks. So with Braun coming back, the regular a bats are not going to be there. Brinson definitely has the goods, it just isn’t his time. He came up with some SAGNOF promise and basically gave us, to date, 3-for-21, .143 batting average, and one whole counting stat. A steal for all the kids at home screaming it. Cut bait and go in another direction. I get that he has sexy name appeal and can juggle, but in redraft leagues, move elsewhere and see what’s what in a month or two with the Brewers roster and pennant push. In September, he could be a sneaky Dave Roberts type of late game entry with some steal capability. So I bid you fair the well Sir Lewis of Brinson of the Colorado Silver Sox clan. Carry on SAGNOF surfers, let’s see what else is hopping on the good foot to do the bad thing in the thievery department. As always I like to include a chart of some sort, makes it all pretty like…
Please, blog, may I have some more? Bullpen Report: Reliever Carousel On A National Scale
June 16, 2017 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 8 Commentsby: Smokey
At some point, the bullpen levee is going to break for the Nationals. Never in my fantasy existence have I seen such blahness, injury, and utter roster futility like I have seen with the first place Nats. I don’t know if they are lucky or good… they have had six guys garner saves this year. Already had three closers changes by injury or attrition, and are still collectively better than the sum of their parts. They have the second worst bullpen ERA sitting in the low 5’s, allow the second highest BAA at .273, and have the worst OPS against. Oh, and just for giggles, they have 11 blown saves. So how are they doing it you may ask? I haven’t the foggiest idea. But in a weird case of scenarios, the Twins are equally as bad in almost all the same categories. Re-inventing the winning relief ways, I guess. What I do know is Enny Romero over the past 15 games has been the bull’s balls, or lack there of if you are into those kind of delicacies. After the rise and fall of Koda, the fluctuation of weight by Albers and the over-hyped value of Kelley being the wily veteran, Romero has stood out. His K-rate is pushing 11 on the season and it’s even better over the past 15 games as it pushes 14. This is the bullpen post, so relievers are what make my pants miraculously disappear and I love me the hold stat. Enny Romero looks like the match-up proof guy that even Dusty can rely on until the relief relievers are acquired via trade. So if you wanna capitalize on a winning team, which is a positive in hold searching, and need to zero in on a guy to maybe get a ton of high leverage situations, please go take a gander at Enny Romero. So while you go search the waiver wire to see if he is available, stay here as we get some intimate details about late inning goodies…
Please, blog, may I have some more?You know what Tuesday’s are good for… SAGNOF. And remembering to put your recycling out. Funny enough, I am correlating the two this week. Co-mingling, if you may. This week, I wanna bring something old, something not so new, and he wears blue… pajamas. (Because p-jays make the man.) Let’s look at some old SAGNOF gold and the familiar name that is Eric Young Jr.. Hell, this is SAGNOF, it ain’t a beauty contest… it’s not even that B.S. 15-buck prize from Monopoly when you land on the community chest. Why I like E.Y. Jr. is multi-faceted; First, he is on a team where he doesn’t have to throw base-running as a caution to the wind. The Angels are second behind only the Reds’ legs in steals, and with an 80% success rate, they prolly won’t be choosing another tact to manufacture runs while Trout is mending his fin. He isn’t sexy, and he has a track record of being a good for a few games then falling off a plateau, but since receiving regular at-bats, it is in the same breath as Trout going down. He has an OBP of over .410, and if you think it’s kind of a fluke, check his minor league stats prior to call-up. His OPS was at .950 in 44 games at Triple A with 15 steals. The days of stealing 50-plus bases ala 2013 are long gone, but if you need to find a place for a steal here or there, check the Angels ownership and steals totals. Maybin, Simmons et al. So with that, let’ see what else is shaking in the 90-feet of thievery department. Chart added for flavor. Cheers!
Please, blog, may I have some more? Closer Report: Philly’s Blunt, Time For Pat
June 9, 2017 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 19 Commentsby: Smokey
The worst news in terms of closers, especially in a situation like Philadelphia, is the word: committee. I mean, it is kind of like getting free tickets to see the Village People, hell yes they are the Village People. But do you wanna be known for knowing more than two of their songs? Nope, not me. So look at this way, Pat Neshek got the save the other day after Gomez and Mortecia Neris had their turns at the gig. Now this isn’t a Pat on the back (pun intended for Neshek), because it is still a full blooded committee for a team that ranks in the bottom six in all of MLB in saves, save opportunities, and relief appearances with them having the lead. Add all that up and it goes back to what I was spitting a few months ago, are saves really worth the rigmarole of dumpster diving for futility? The problem with that whole “rostering multiple guys for a chance at a save” is all well and good if you are able to roster both or even three guys… and that is the dumbest thing I have ever typed out. Who in here has a Philly reliever let alone three? Show of hands? Yeah, you shouldn’t. So Neshek is worth a grab while they showcase him for trade value, and Neris is a hold because who knows when a last place team tries to keep it real? Let’s hop on the good foot and see what’s going down with the late-gamers…
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