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MattTruss

Author: MattTruss

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MattTruss

DraftKings: INXCES

August 25, 2015 | DraftKings | 8 Comments

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So you’re telling me if the Mets played in Coors field every night, they’d be the highest scoring team in baseball instead of bottom 5, where they were pre-Coors? Huh, 33 runs in 3 games ain’t too shabby and I hope you benefited from Yoenis Cespedes’ onslaught Friday night. I managed to somehow cash without him, but I couldn’t touch the top spots. The Mets have clearly sacrificed some chickens to Jobu over the past month. The good fortune continues as they go from beating up on Rockies pitchers in Coors to now getting to feast on Philly pitching in Citizens Bank Park. Here’s some fun with numbers: in the month of August, the Mets are 5th in Runs, 1st in doubles, 4th in HRs and 3rd in team OPS, one of my favorite stats to look at. As I write this, I just watched Daniel Murphy hit the 7th HR of the the game for the Mets, tying a franchise record. So, how much of this new found offense is Cespedes induced? Well, he hasn’t exactly been cold, his slash line since joining the Mets: Tonight the human Cespedes gets to dine on the shizz that is Jerome Williams’ right arm. Sky, in his recent roundup, mentioned Jerome’s reverse splits this season. Much like the hips, Sky don’t lie. The numbers this year vs. RHB: .336/.363/.597 and vs. LHB: .315/.379/.399 tell you all you need to know. Of course as you can see, everyone is hitting for a hall of fame average off the guy, so you really can’t go wrong when throwing anyone and everyone out there at him, but righties are especially brutalizing him. Reverse splits are fairly screwy, I tend to think they normalize over time, but there are exceptions, like in everything. For his career, Williams’ marks are generous to both handed hitters. Lefties enjoy a better batting average and OBP while righties have a higher slugging percentage. That’s over a 12 year career of course and things change with age. For example, a bag of garbage left in a black trash can in the middle of summer gets much worse with age. Jerome is said bag of garbage and the hot summer months aren’t being kind to him. With any luck, people will take a quick glance as guys like Curtis Granderson (L) and Michael Conforto (L) are highly owned and Cespedes sneaks under the radar. I need you tonight, Yoenis, don’t let me down. Here are some more picks for tonight’s slate:

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Catching Pollock with Holmbergers

August 21, 2015 | DraftKings | 8 Comments

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I also considered “Yas Many More Holmbergers Please” but the title isn’t really what’s important here. What’s important is how awful David Holmberg is and how happy I am to load up on some Diamondbacks this evening, especially AJ Pollock. First, let’s touch on the dumpster fire that is David Holmberg. Well, he has a 5.95 ERA for starters. That could be a small sample size, though, as he’s only pitched in 4 games and is fresh off a 2 IP, 7 ER outing at the Dodgers. So, before that trainwreck was a 3.06 ERA. Not too shabby you say. Well, his FIP and xFIP tell a different story, they are 7.33 and 5.81 respectively and even before the 7 ER outing they were each sitting around a 4.90. We can even go back and take a look at last season’s 30 IP and see the 7.60 FIP and 5.86 xFIP. Those numbers are eerily similar to this year’s numbers through 19.2 IP. Holmberg has spread the love quite nicely with righties and lefties as each has a wOBA over .350, with righties earning a slight bump (.390) which is why we are focusing our attack there. In addition to all of this, all of Holmberg’s pitches have a negative value and his fastball has been especially bad this season. Guess who the second best fastball hitter (behind Goldy who is simply a beast vs. everyone and every pitch type) on the Diamondbacks is this year? AJ Pollock, come on that one was easy! Pollock is enjoying a very nice breakout season. One of the many great things about Pollock this season is it doesn’t matter who he’s facing, he’s raking. The trouble in DFS sometimes can be when you identify that mint matchup vs. a certain handed pitcher, only to have that pitcher pulled after 3 IP and 6 ER and you mint matchup goes out the window as your play is pulled for a pinch hitter. No fear with Pollock, he’s an equal opportunity masher. Here are Pollock’s slash lines plus wOBA vs. first righties: .309/.365/.471/.361 and then lefties: .316/.368/.490/.372. Pretty remarkable right? All this is to say Pollock is a stud and Holmberg is a dud, so fireworks should be in the air at Great American Ballpark tonight.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Coors And The High Life

August 18, 2015 | DraftKings |

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It’s good to be back my friends. After a week away, I’m ready and raring to go. I took a full week off from DFS (That’s a lie, I played in the PGA Championship MIlly Maker, but who’s counting) and it was a nice reprieve. MLB is a crazy long season and in the midst of the dog days, it can really be a grind. Taking some much needed time off was great and if you’re feeling sluggish when building lineups I suggest you do the same. Enough about my time off though, let’s get back to business: the business of making cash. Obviously, you have a decision to make tonight and that is what to do with Coors field. Bryce Harper is ludacris expensive tonight, $6,400, but for good reason. Bryce gets to face off against David Hale and his 5.69 ERA, 5.23 FIP and 2.0 HR/9 in Coors field. Do you dare fade the kid? If you do choose to fade Coors this evening, I’d look to the game over in Miller Park. Miller Park, believe it or not, is numero uno in HR park factor in 2015. Of course, park factors are victim to small sample size noise when only looking at a single season, but being number one in HR by a comfortable margin this year isn’t nothing. Miller is top five in runs for good measure as well. I’ll be making a few Miller and Coors recommendations below so you don’t forget, so raise a glass and follow me.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 12 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Wood Chucks

August 4, 2015 | DraftKings |

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I’m still not entirely sure what the Braves were doing at the trade deadline, but Alex Wood found himself in a much more favorable position. For his first start in Dodger Blue, he’ll be on the road facing a familiar foe in the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are, of course, always a team we like to target. Being in the bottom 5 of just about every offensive category will earn you that dubious honor. Alex Wood hasn’t exactly been peaches and cream this season, his Ks have disappeared and he’s been a bit WHIP-y. These are things I’m willing to deal with when the price is right and $7,400 is right. The best part of the match-up is Jerome Williams is on the other side of the mound so a win is all but guaranteed. The Dodgers should tee off on Williams, pushing him ever closer to the retirement he deserves and Wood should be able to cruise to the easy win. With any luck he gets to relax early and can let it fly vs. the woeful Phils. Wood is one of the biggest favorites on the night and makes a nice second tier pitcher to throw alongside the ace of your choosing.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 15 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Pheast on Phillie P(h)itching

July 28, 2015 | DraftKings |

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Last week it was lefties beating up on Shane Greene, this week we have the Canadian lefty killers, the Toronto Blue Jays. If you read me at all this season you’ve noticed some themes. Mainly the pitching staffs I enjoy picking on most, Texas and Philadelphia. When one of those two waltzes into a home stadium of the highest scoring team in MLB, I get a little excited. The cherry on top is the first starter just so happens to give the platoon advantage to Toronto’s three best hitters. Not only have the Blue Jays scored 70+ more runs than the next best team, but they own the best team OPS (.832) vs. lefties by over 50 points. This is almost too good to be true, a dream matchup that most likely everyone will be on. Do with that info what you will, but you won’t catch me fading Josh Donaldson tonight, even at a lofty $5,800. Whether it be tournament or cash game, Dongaldson and his 1.051 OPS vs. LHP (or .441 wOBA if that’s the language you prefer to speak) this season will find his way into my lineups to pheast on Adam Morgan. You can fade him if you like, but if he goes triple dong, don’t say I didn’t warn you. Let’s see who else I’ll be looking at on tonight’s slate.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Left on Greene

July 21, 2015 | DraftKings | 29 Comments

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Remember when Shane Greene was a thing?  Those were the days, spring had just sprung and there was so much hope, so much optimism.  Your team ERA was so pretty then.  You had a shiny new toy fresh from the free agent pool and after his second of two 8 IP, 0 ER gems, you were feeling like the smartest guy your league.  Then, April 24th happened.  4 IP, 8 ER vs. the lefty-heavy Indians lineup.  Still you believed and then, 4.1 IP, 7 ER.  You were wounded, beaten, bloodied and you team ERA was approaching the double digit mark.  If this sounds familiar, it’s OK, we’ve all been there.  Now is the time to act and seek a little revenge against the one who hurt you.  It became apparent fairly early that Greene had some trouble with southpaws.  In fact, his season splits read like a hall of famer to be, lefties are slashing .349/.401/.592.  There are a handful of pitchers I adore stacking against and when Greene was optioned to AAA, I was sad to lose one of the best.  Aaron Harang and Bud Norris can only do so much here.  Greene is back now though and in his first start back in the majors proceeded to go 4.2 IP and give up 7 ERs.  There’s the Shane we know and love.  I really can’t dream up a more nightmarish match-up for Shane besides maybe the Yankees in the house that Jeter built.  Seattle can go lefty-heavy with the best of ‘em and I could easily see another 3 IP, 8 ER outing here.  There’s not a Seattle lefty I won’t be trying to squeeze into my lineup tonight and I’ll mention one or two below so you don’t forget.  Just remember, left on Greene and you’ll be on the road to sweet redemption.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Wilin To Fade Coors?

July 7, 2015 | DraftKings | 4 Comments

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DraftKings was actually a little late to the DFS party.  You’d never know it by looking at how prevalent they are everywhere.  They have done a wonderful job marketing, nabbing up partnerships with MLB and several major sports franchises along the way.  They are one of the two big fishes in the sea right now.  Back in the early days of DFS every site had a little chat box that was a place for three things usually.  1) Trash talking, 2) Whining, 3) Immature potty humor that quickly degenerated into things that you’d read on a Yahoo! article comments section.  DraftKings came into being after the chat box phenomenon had started to fade away.  It’s really no surprise these chat boxes have gone the way of the buffalo, but there are a few smaller sites where they still exist.  All of this was a long introduction into me reading one of these chats the other day and seeing someone whining about “stupid Coors stacks”.  I’m a Coors stacker, it’s what I do.  I try every way I can to get as much exposure to that place as I possibly can on a given night.  For me, it’s a worthwhile gamble and one that pays off more often than not.  It’s not everyone’s bag though, but you have to be aware of the situation.  You can always fade Coors in a  tournament, figuring most people will be on that game.  If Coors is a dud and your guys go off, you should have a nice advantage.  You could go with the flow and stack Coors, or you could just sprinkle in Coors action and pick your spots.  The final option of course, if the Coors stacks really bother you is to just sit those nights out.  No one will think any less of you.  If you are playing tonight, one name I highly discourage fading is Wilin Rosario.  Wilin is a beast with the stick and is superhuman when he’s got the platoon advantage (.325/.360/.623 career slash line).  Toss in the Coors factor and for $3,600 with eligibility at first base or catcher and there’s no excuse for fading Wilin tonight.  Here are a few more fellas you shouldn’t be fading this evening.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 18 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Play The Rush

June 30, 2015 | DraftKings | 8 Comments

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Poker players tend to make good DFS players.  Some of the top DFS pros are former poker pros.  I think there are several reasons for this occurrence.  First, there’s the element of the grind that is familiar, then there’s of course a similar aspect with bankroll management and also there’s a familiarity with odds and statistics.  There’s a lot of carry over and I want to chat a little about one of my favorite carry overs.  Most self respecting poker players have at least perused Doyle Brunson’s Super System.  This book is a bible on playing power poker.  For those that might be unfamiliar with the book and/or the term, it’s an aggressive style of play, but not being aggressive just for the sake of being aggressive.  It’s calculated aggression.  One of my favorite takeaways from this book was playing your rushes.  The cliff notes of Brunson’s thoughts when it comes to playing a rush is this: after he wins a hand in no limit hold ‘em, he plays the very next hand regardless of what two cards he is dealt.  If he wins that hand, he’s in the very next one and so on and so forth until he loses a hand.  In each of these subsequent hands, he’s a little more loose than normal.  This is something I always do when I play cards and it carries over to DFS for me as well.  If I have a winning night, you can bet I’ll be playing the next night.  If I win again, I’ll be right in there the next night as well, this time maybe making a jump to a higher buy-in tournament than I typically play.  Rudy would probably jump all over this saying there’s no data that backs up “running hot” or being on a “heater”, but that’s no fun.  There’s times where the lineups almost build themselves and things just click.  Maybe it’s a little thought of player that you’re riding or an underpriced player you are plugging and playing (Billy Burns at under $3K for 3 weeks anyone?).  Whatever the reason, have a little fun with your winnings and take a couple shots when you’re hot.  Now, let’s get to some picks to start that hot streak.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 18 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Bleating Out, Will You Survive?

June 23, 2015 | DraftKings | 2 Comments

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I just can’t resist myself when it comes to a baaaaad sheep pun and my buddy Jake Lamb. Jake’s had a pretty rough go of things since coming off the DL including being 0 for his last 10. Do you know what can end a rough patch faster than a scalded dog? A trip to Coors field, that’s what. The Diamondbacks pack up and head from Coors South to Coors Coors and I’m going to be all over Jake Lamb while he visits. Because of Lamb’s missed time it’s hard to get a great read on where he’s at as a hitter. In his 22 games so far this season he’s got an identical wOBA as his teammate, Yasmany Tomas (.342) and a very similar SLG percentage (.418 vs. .429). Looking back to his minor league numbers last season we can see he was just obliterating AA (.318/.399/.551). The kid can hit and with the Coors assist I like him to have a nice few days.

As for the second part of my title, DraftKings is running a fun little survivor tournament that starts tonight. I’m a big fan of these style tournaments, I think they are lots of fun. You can read the details on the tournament here. This is the first of three of these they will be running at various price points. The one tonight happens to be their “medium” tournament. The smallest stake event will feature a $5 buy-in and if you’ve never done one before, I encourage you to give it a whirl. The biggest deal is, you need to have the 4 days to be able to build a lineup. For the most part you play each day as you would a regular 50/50 game. Survive the second day and you’re in the money. If you make it to the final day, you’ve made your money back and can shoot for the moon and the 30 grand top prize. Not bad for a $27 buy-in. I said for the most part you can play this as a regular 50/50 because I tend to be a little more aggressive in these tournaments than a typical 50/50. The reason is, the pros and those with money to burn will be running some large trains in this thing, trying to push through multiple entries to the end and the guaranteed money. I’m not saying to go totally crazy but when choosing between Byron Buxton and Torii Hunter for your final roster spot, lean towards the upside. Here’s a couple more picks to help you survive tonight…

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 18 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Double Vs Mean Ws

June 16, 2015 | DraftKings | 6 Comments

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It’s a story that’s been told many times before and will be told many times to come.  It’s the story of the Colorado Rockies and their travels throughout the land at sea level.  I won’t bore you with the retelling but I will tell you about a young man named Vincent Velasquez.  Double V (VV for short) is all of 23 and full of piss and vinegar.  He was impressive enough in double A for the Astros to call him right up.  There he was posting a handy 12.6 K/9 with a 1.37 ERA and sub 1 WHIP.  Sure, it was double A and this is the bigs, but I was impressed by the kid’s composure in his debut and the Ks didn’t stop there (5 in 5 IP).  The 4 walks aren’t great, obviously, but he was able to pitch himself out of trouble when he needed to.  The price is right here as well.  VV is priced barely above the slew of relief pitchers on DK at $5,500.  Circling back to the oft told story of the Rockies on the road where they struggle oh so mightly and everything is coming up V.  On the 5 game early slate, he pairs nicely with Scott Kazmir for a K-happy 1-2 punch that sounds like a winner to me.  Fear not, on this rare split Tuesday I’ll provide a little something something for the early games as well as the night caps.  It’s a nice day to throw together an early tournament lineup or two and maybe some H2H games and then parlay those early winnings into some night time buy-ins.  It’s a full day of DFS fun for us junkies and I can’t wait to dive in.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Aces Full, Mike

June 9, 2015 | DraftKings | 14 Comments

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If Friday, when I last wrote, was the worst pitching day I had ever seen, this one looks fantastic.  Aces abound.  Congrats if you recognize the reference from my title.  One of my favorite movie scenes from a great movie, Rounders.  Classic really, it could be a little overplayed and some may say overrated, but I’m a big fan.  It’s an aces full day and so I’m going to skip to fellas I’ll be looking to pair with my aces.  Some folks will pay up and pair two aces tonight, it’s a matter of your own personal strategy and risk assessment.  Two aces will be more “safe”.  Kluber/Syndergaard will probably be amazing.  Scherzer/Gray, that would most likely be incredible.  However, with a game in Coors and some high priced bats, I’m much more likely to take one lower tier ace (like Syndergaard for instance) and pair him with a cheap upside play, someone such as Mike Foltynewicz.  Mike’s point totals throughout May are a bit of a mixed bag, but his strikeouts are not.  Starting May 6th his K totals are: 7, 7, 7, 7, 8, 5.  San Diego is willing to play along as they rank 3rd in MLB in Ks right now.  They’re an all or nothing, HR or strikeout style team a’la the Astros.  For $7,200, I’ll take my chances that tonight is a nothing night  and the kid can rack up the Ks at home.  Let’s look at a couple more value pitchers to pair with our aces.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Mr. Stanton Goes to Denver

June 5, 2015 | DraftKings | 12 Comments

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Happy Friday everyone. It’s nice being in on a Friday. Tuesday and Friday nights are usually the most jam packed nights of the DFS week with plenty of large tournaments and Friday tends to house the week’s biggest events including qualifiers aplenty. Good luck to those chasing Q’s this evening. Despite being a Friday, it’s more like a whacky Wednesday. I guess we can call it a freaky Friday. For those that don’t subscribe to the hitter-tron and stream-o-nator, first of all, I’m sorry you’re losing your league. Second of all, what is the matter with you? Thirdly, there’s some craziness going down tonight and I’ll fill you in a little and explain my sentiments. There’s something I can’t ever recall seeing with the stream-o-nator tonight and that’s not a single pitcher with over a $6.7 value. In fact, there are only 9 pitchers with any positive value tonight, which leaves 21 pitchers in the negative with three of them in the negative $30 range. Those three pitchers aren’t even starting in Coors! What does all this mean? Expect a ton of offense tonight because there’s a ton of shizz pitchers throwing. I would guess tonight might be one of those nights where you can score 150 DraftKings points and not cash. The other fun thing tonight is Giancarlo Stanton in Coors field. The superhuman crusher of baseballs checks in at a very rare $100+ value tonight. Just imagine what Giancarlo could do if he were on the Rockies. *Wavy lines* I was so excited to draft Giancarlo #1 overall this year. He hit 30 homers before the all-star break and then his hamstring tore in half, what a bummer. *Wavy lines* Yea, that sounds about right, very Tulo-esque. No matter, he’s in the hitter friendly confines tonight and will be appointment television for me. At $5,800 tonight, I’d say he’s worth every penny. I expected him to be over $6,000 to be honest. Look at us, bargain shopping like a soccer mom. Let’s take a look at some other players to roster and see if there’s any starters worth rostering this Friday.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
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