It’s been a long tradition here at Razzball, passed on from generation to generation by word of…keyboard; don’t draft a starter in the first round. There always seems to be those faces in the crowd that will argue until they are blue in the face that Kershaw is worth a top 2 pick. All leagues are different, of course. There are leagues, such as NFBC leagues or other leagues with limited moves where quality innings are hard to come by that top pitchers make more sense. However, we tend to focus on the ESPN 12 team leagues we know and love, the RCLs. In this format, you’re doing yourself a disservice drafting a first round pitcher. I’ve said it, “I’m not here to suggest that if you draft a pitcher in the first round, you’ll lose the league, but you’re not doing yourself any favors.” Grey has said it, “These tiers are from Kershaw to Lester. If you draft someone from these tiers, you’ll probably lose your league or get lucky with your hitters.” Countless other top RCLers have echoed the same sentiment. Yet, there is Clayton Kershaw with an ADP of 10.5 and a high pick of #2 overall. Just last week in an RCL I put together there was a spirited discussion as a drafter took Kershaw 4th overall. The debate raged on as this drafter went on to take Max Scherzer in the 2nd round, 21st overall. There were talks of “1/6th of my GS will now have elite ratios” and “Elite starters are so valuable with all this offense around the league”. I’m not typically one to throw out anecdotal claims, so let’s look at some cold, hard numbers to see if the old spiel holds true.
Please, blog, may I have some more?