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MattTruss

Author: MattTruss

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MattTruss

DraftKings: Play The Rush

June 30, 2015 | DraftKings | 8 Comments

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Poker players tend to make good DFS players.  Some of the top DFS pros are former poker pros.  I think there are several reasons for this occurrence.  First, there’s the element of the grind that is familiar, then there’s of course a similar aspect with bankroll management and also there’s a familiarity with odds and statistics.  There’s a lot of carry over and I want to chat a little about one of my favorite carry overs.  Most self respecting poker players have at least perused Doyle Brunson’s Super System.  This book is a bible on playing power poker.  For those that might be unfamiliar with the book and/or the term, it’s an aggressive style of play, but not being aggressive just for the sake of being aggressive.  It’s calculated aggression.  One of my favorite takeaways from this book was playing your rushes.  The cliff notes of Brunson’s thoughts when it comes to playing a rush is this: after he wins a hand in no limit hold ‘em, he plays the very next hand regardless of what two cards he is dealt.  If he wins that hand, he’s in the very next one and so on and so forth until he loses a hand.  In each of these subsequent hands, he’s a little more loose than normal.  This is something I always do when I play cards and it carries over to DFS for me as well.  If I have a winning night, you can bet I’ll be playing the next night.  If I win again, I’ll be right in there the next night as well, this time maybe making a jump to a higher buy-in tournament than I typically play.  Rudy would probably jump all over this saying there’s no data that backs up “running hot” or being on a “heater”, but that’s no fun.  There’s times where the lineups almost build themselves and things just click.  Maybe it’s a little thought of player that you’re riding or an underpriced player you are plugging and playing (Billy Burns at under $3K for 3 weeks anyone?).  Whatever the reason, have a little fun with your winnings and take a couple shots when you’re hot.  Now, let’s get to some picks to start that hot streak.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 18 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Bleating Out, Will You Survive?

June 23, 2015 | DraftKings | 2 Comments

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I just can’t resist myself when it comes to a baaaaad sheep pun and my buddy Jake Lamb. Jake’s had a pretty rough go of things since coming off the DL including being 0 for his last 10. Do you know what can end a rough patch faster than a scalded dog? A trip to Coors field, that’s what. The Diamondbacks pack up and head from Coors South to Coors Coors and I’m going to be all over Jake Lamb while he visits. Because of Lamb’s missed time it’s hard to get a great read on where he’s at as a hitter. In his 22 games so far this season he’s got an identical wOBA as his teammate, Yasmany Tomas (.342) and a very similar SLG percentage (.418 vs. .429). Looking back to his minor league numbers last season we can see he was just obliterating AA (.318/.399/.551). The kid can hit and with the Coors assist I like him to have a nice few days.

As for the second part of my title, DraftKings is running a fun little survivor tournament that starts tonight. I’m a big fan of these style tournaments, I think they are lots of fun. You can read the details on the tournament here. This is the first of three of these they will be running at various price points. The one tonight happens to be their “medium” tournament. The smallest stake event will feature a $5 buy-in and if you’ve never done one before, I encourage you to give it a whirl. The biggest deal is, you need to have the 4 days to be able to build a lineup. For the most part you play each day as you would a regular 50/50 game. Survive the second day and you’re in the money. If you make it to the final day, you’ve made your money back and can shoot for the moon and the 30 grand top prize. Not bad for a $27 buy-in. I said for the most part you can play this as a regular 50/50 because I tend to be a little more aggressive in these tournaments than a typical 50/50. The reason is, the pros and those with money to burn will be running some large trains in this thing, trying to push through multiple entries to the end and the guaranteed money. I’m not saying to go totally crazy but when choosing between Byron Buxton and Torii Hunter for your final roster spot, lean towards the upside. Here’s a couple more picks to help you survive tonight…

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 18 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Double Vs Mean Ws

June 16, 2015 | DraftKings | 6 Comments

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It’s a story that’s been told many times before and will be told many times to come.  It’s the story of the Colorado Rockies and their travels throughout the land at sea level.  I won’t bore you with the retelling but I will tell you about a young man named Vincent Velasquez.  Double V (VV for short) is all of 23 and full of piss and vinegar.  He was impressive enough in double A for the Astros to call him right up.  There he was posting a handy 12.6 K/9 with a 1.37 ERA and sub 1 WHIP.  Sure, it was double A and this is the bigs, but I was impressed by the kid’s composure in his debut and the Ks didn’t stop there (5 in 5 IP).  The 4 walks aren’t great, obviously, but he was able to pitch himself out of trouble when he needed to.  The price is right here as well.  VV is priced barely above the slew of relief pitchers on DK at $5,500.  Circling back to the oft told story of the Rockies on the road where they struggle oh so mightly and everything is coming up V.  On the 5 game early slate, he pairs nicely with Scott Kazmir for a K-happy 1-2 punch that sounds like a winner to me.  Fear not, on this rare split Tuesday I’ll provide a little something something for the early games as well as the night caps.  It’s a nice day to throw together an early tournament lineup or two and maybe some H2H games and then parlay those early winnings into some night time buy-ins.  It’s a full day of DFS fun for us junkies and I can’t wait to dive in.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Aces Full, Mike

June 9, 2015 | DraftKings | 14 Comments

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If Friday, when I last wrote, was the worst pitching day I had ever seen, this one looks fantastic.  Aces abound.  Congrats if you recognize the reference from my title.  One of my favorite movie scenes from a great movie, Rounders.  Classic really, it could be a little overplayed and some may say overrated, but I’m a big fan.  It’s an aces full day and so I’m going to skip to fellas I’ll be looking to pair with my aces.  Some folks will pay up and pair two aces tonight, it’s a matter of your own personal strategy and risk assessment.  Two aces will be more “safe”.  Kluber/Syndergaard will probably be amazing.  Scherzer/Gray, that would most likely be incredible.  However, with a game in Coors and some high priced bats, I’m much more likely to take one lower tier ace (like Syndergaard for instance) and pair him with a cheap upside play, someone such as Mike Foltynewicz.  Mike’s point totals throughout May are a bit of a mixed bag, but his strikeouts are not.  Starting May 6th his K totals are: 7, 7, 7, 7, 8, 5.  San Diego is willing to play along as they rank 3rd in MLB in Ks right now.  They’re an all or nothing, HR or strikeout style team a’la the Astros.  For $7,200, I’ll take my chances that tonight is a nothing night  and the kid can rack up the Ks at home.  Let’s look at a couple more value pitchers to pair with our aces.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Mr. Stanton Goes to Denver

June 5, 2015 | DraftKings | 12 Comments

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Happy Friday everyone. It’s nice being in on a Friday. Tuesday and Friday nights are usually the most jam packed nights of the DFS week with plenty of large tournaments and Friday tends to house the week’s biggest events including qualifiers aplenty. Good luck to those chasing Q’s this evening. Despite being a Friday, it’s more like a whacky Wednesday. I guess we can call it a freaky Friday. For those that don’t subscribe to the hitter-tron and stream-o-nator, first of all, I’m sorry you’re losing your league. Second of all, what is the matter with you? Thirdly, there’s some craziness going down tonight and I’ll fill you in a little and explain my sentiments. There’s something I can’t ever recall seeing with the stream-o-nator tonight and that’s not a single pitcher with over a $6.7 value. In fact, there are only 9 pitchers with any positive value tonight, which leaves 21 pitchers in the negative with three of them in the negative $30 range. Those three pitchers aren’t even starting in Coors! What does all this mean? Expect a ton of offense tonight because there’s a ton of shizz pitchers throwing. I would guess tonight might be one of those nights where you can score 150 DraftKings points and not cash. The other fun thing tonight is Giancarlo Stanton in Coors field. The superhuman crusher of baseballs checks in at a very rare $100+ value tonight. Just imagine what Giancarlo could do if he were on the Rockies. *Wavy lines* I was so excited to draft Giancarlo #1 overall this year. He hit 30 homers before the all-star break and then his hamstring tore in half, what a bummer. *Wavy lines* Yea, that sounds about right, very Tulo-esque. No matter, he’s in the hitter friendly confines tonight and will be appointment television for me. At $5,800 tonight, I’d say he’s worth every penny. I expected him to be over $6,000 to be honest. Look at us, bargain shopping like a soccer mom. Let’s take a look at some other players to roster and see if there’s any starters worth rostering this Friday.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Scoring Some Buchs

May 26, 2015 | DraftKings | 35 Comments

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Hopefully everyone is rested up after the Memorial Day holiday and is ready for some DFS action. I know I am. There’s a slew of aces with mint match-ups throwing tonight, so I’ll be digging past the Clayton Kershaw vs. the Braves and Jacob deGrom (Are his initials written as J.d., J.deG. or J.G.? These are the things I think about) vs. the Phillies and getting into the nitty gritty. These guys are great, if you can afford them, by all means. I generally like to pair an ace with a cheap option with high strikeout upside. My favorite pairing option will be Clay Buchholz tonight. Alright, you can stop snickering now. Clay, of course has the ability to make me look like a complete moron tonight and go 1.2 IP and give up 8 ER, but, it’s the upside that intrigues me. It’s always a risk vs. reward vs. price battle with DFS and I like the potential return. Grey already gave you the Buchholz buy recommendation a few weeks ago. Since then his ERA is 2.49 and he’s struck out 18 in 21.2 IP while only walking 5. A funny thing happened on the way to everyone burying Clay and leaving him for dead. First, his insane .407 BAbip straightened out (.236 over the last 3 starts). Next, his luck leaving men on base normalized a bit. After two starts early in the year where he only left 12% and 28% of men on base (If you got on base, you scored basically) he’s stranded no less than 70% the last three starts, which is about league average. Finally, he got his Bullfrog sponsor back *insert rim shot*. Really though, the biggest thing we care about for DraftKings scoring, the strikeouts have been there all along. Clay is rocking the sunscreen as well as a 9.85 K/9. The Twinkies are bottom 5 in team OPS vs. right handers and the price is right tonight at $7,700. Let’s take a look at the rest of the picks and all make some Buchs tonight, shall we?

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Film Study

May 19, 2015 | DraftKings | 20 Comments

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I read a great piece this offseason on J.D. Martinez.  He was such an interesting player last year and I was trying to make heads or tails of him.  Was his breakout for real?  Was he to be believed?  Was this a fluke?  Where in the world am I going to draft this guy this year?  In my research of the man, the myth, the J.D. I found an article talking about his failures in Houston and adjustments he made.  You can read it for yourself here.  J.D. talks about how the breakthrough happened when watching film.  Not film of himself mind you, but film of his teammate, Jason Castro.  Next up, he checked out film of Ryan Braun, then Miguel Cabrera and finally Mike Trout.  He noticed how each of their bats stayed in the zone for a much longer time than his did and realized he needed to make this adjustment to succeed.  He worked on it with great success in winter ball, but was cut by Houston during spring training.  The Tigers welcomed him with open arms and the rest is J.D.’s breakout season.

Why am I telling you this and how does it related to DFS?  Well grasshopper, I will tell you.  I am telling you this because you can learn something from J.D.  You can employ this same technique to improve your daily game that J.D. used to tattoo baseballs.  I think one of the best ways to learn how to play this game well is to study those that are more successful at it than you.  Pick a DFS player you see at the top of tournament boards most nights and play them heads up, join the same tournaments as them and study them.  Don’t just look at who they picked, but why they picked them.  If you can’t come up with a good reason why they picked them, dig deeper.  I personally believe this is helpful in all walks of life, but I can guarantee it won’t make you a worse DFS player.  So, give it a whirl and see what you can learn, you might just have your own breakout.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Whitley’s Believe It Or Not

May 14, 2015 | DraftKings | 12 Comments

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It’s a six game slate tonight and there’s rain possible in two of those. Quick math tells me there’s 8 starting pitchers worth considering. Man I hate the rain, have I mentioned that? I would watch the weather like a hawk and if things look so-so, I’d still roll with the hitters in the contest, but so-so weather and starting pitchers don’t mix for me. Nothing is worse than 3.2 solid IP followed by a one hour rain delay. So, who am I pairing with Johnny Cueto tonight? Chase Whitley, believe it or not. Here we have a $5,700 pitcher that has a 8.15 K/9 and a 1.57 BB/9. Granted, that’s in only 17.2 IP, so it’s small sample size. Everyone leftover has fleas though, and Whitley’s seem to be the least scratchy. He got pounded for 3 long balls at home against the Orioles. This start is at the Trop, a little more pitcher friendly environment against a not quite as great offense. I like guys that don’t walk a ton of batters, that helps reduce the potential damage and the decent K-rate helps for DraftKings scoring. Just for good measure, the opposing pitcher is Erasmo Ramirez & the rest of the TB bullpen. For the price, let’s just cross our fingers and hope he doesn’t blow-up and the Yank’s offense carries him to the Win.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Swipe Right On Synder

May 12, 2015 | DraftKings | 9 Comments

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I don’t know if you’ve heard, but the latest in rookie nookie will be making his debut tonight.  Everyone wants to hook up with Noah Syndergaard, myself included.  The kid’s been just obliterating the PCL to the tune of a 1.82 ERA, 0.944 WHIP and K-rate of 10.3.  Those numbers alone are impressive, then you factor in how hitter friendly the PCL can be and they become knock your socks off numbers.  Even last year when his PCL numbers weren’t wonderful, Noah was still mowing them down at around a 10 K/9 pace, so the strikeout  potential is real.  Syndergaard cracks the top 10 in just about everyone’s top 10 prospects lists, including our very own Prospect Mike who ranked him as high as 3rd.  Noah gets the call against the Cubs who just so happen to lead the majors in strikeouts right now.  At $7,200, Syndergaard provides terrific upside with the potential for plenty of high scoring Ks.  Of course, rookie nookie can always be dangerous.  I’m guessing the buzz around the kid will cause his ownership percentage to be on the high side.  If you have a feeling that 30% or so of the field will be waking up in a bathtub full of ice with no kidneys, then by all means, employ the fade.  As someone who missed out on him in all but one of his yearly leagues, I’ll happily insert him some lineups just to ride the wave a bit.  The beauty of DFS is you don’t need to be first to the waiver wire, you just have to work in the salary.  I’ll be swiping right and enjoying my rookie nookie hook-up tonight, how about you?

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Become Qualified

May 5, 2015 | DraftKings | 15 Comments

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There’s a lot of hate towards qualifiers out there. I get it, you feel like the odds are long when you have to spike two rosters to make it count. I also get the sentiment that people feel like they get raked twice when they play qualifiers. If you can win a qualifier however, and you do spike that second lineup, that my friends is bankroll changing. I’m not saying to stop playing you regular tournaments or anything, I’m just trying to make sure you aren’t ignoring what could be a great opportunity to drastically increase your fun money. I’ll lay it out for you using one of DraftKings upcoming featured contests, the Slugfest. This contest is a $33 buy-in, $300K total prize pool event with 10,300 total entrants. Buying straight into that bad boy might be a little out of your price range, and that’s fine. Perhaps the Moonshot tournament is more your style, at $3 buy-in and 30,600 entrants. You may want to consider passing on the Moonshot one or two nights and maybe playing a $3 Slugfest qualifier instead. These qualifiers are 758 entrants with the top 60 earning a spot in the Slugfest. Roughly 8% of entrants will win here. Low odds you say, and you’re right. If we compare these odds to the Moonshot odds however, you’ll see it’s not that bad. In order to win enough in the Moonshot to pay for your buy-in to the Slugfest you’d have to finish 130th or better (winning $40). Your odds there my good friend are a mere 0.4%. Them’s bad odds right thur. If you have a lineup that can get you in the top 8% on the night of the qualifier and then just min cash in the Slugfest (a top 20.1% lineup will get you there), you’d walk away with a cool $65. If you’d like to turn your $3 Moonshot into that kind of cash, you’d have to place in the top 60, in other words a top 0.2% lineup. The other great thing about these qualifiers is, since they have such a bad rap, there is often overlay. Overlay is your friend. Look for it, embrace it, play it often to great success. Look, I’m not saying playing these things is going to allow you to quit your job or anything, I just want you to be aware of them. Don’t let a good thing slip by just because you heard it was bad, try it for yourself and see what you think. Now, let’s cover some plays that might help you win yourself a ticket tonight.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

But wait, there’s more! Sticking with the program here, last Tuesday’s Razzball Friend’s and Family DraftKings contest was none other than your humble author. I feel a little awkward shouting myself out, but hey, at least you know the guy handing out advice isn’t finishing 23rd out of 25 every night, so there’s that. Now, back to regular scheduled programming.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: On The Grind

April 28, 2015 | DraftKings | 16 Comments

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I’ve heard many a person say something along the lines of “Daily fantasy baseball is such a crap shoot, it’s such a small sample, there’s no way you can win”. To these negative Nellys I say, “must be the money”. No wait, that wasn’t it, “it’s getting hot in herre”. Nope, oh right, here it is, I present them with the old poker counter argument, why then are the same people at the top of the leaderboards on a routine basis? Just like with poker, if it’s all luck, why do the same players routinely make final tables? Is there luck involved? Of course! But I will argue over and over that if you have a good process, you’ll be a winner in the long run. This is where the importance of bankroll management comes into play. You have to manage well enough that you can allow yourself time to be sure your process is a good one without going broke. A week long losing streak will happen and it sucks, but it doesn’t prove your process is bad. A general tip is to use 5-10% of your bankroll a night. In addition, don’t blow that 10% on GPPs. Just like with the stock market, you have to diversify. If you stick to 10% and play generally low risk options while sprinkling in the occasional GPP and you go broke, then I’d say it’s time to reevaluate your strategy and player evaluation methods. However, if your process is sound and your bankroll management and game choices are smart, you’ll be a winner over the course of the season. Will it be a grind? Yes. Will it be glamorous and you’ll win a hundred grand your first week? Doubtful. You just gotta have the heart of a champion. Now, let’s shake ya tailfeather down below to some player picks for today’s slate.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
MattTruss

DraftKings: Win Early, Win Often

April 21, 2015 | DraftKings | 45 Comments

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One of my favorite things about Razzball besides the glorious mustaches, amazing daily recaps and the best projections/rankings on the net is the community we’ve got here. We’re all huge nerds around these parts and I love striking up intelligent fantasy baseball discussions with my fellow Razzballers. Come on into the comments section and let’s talk shop. These conversations and debates are where the fun is and where real answers can be found. I’ve chatted with a few folks recently and conversations have gone something like this:

Me: So, have you tried DFS yet?

Anonymous Nobody: Yea, I tried it once, but I lost and haven’t played again.

Me: Oh, well, you should give it another go.

Anonymous Nobody: Ya, maybe

So, in a season that spans 7 months these Anonymous Nobodies have played 1 day of DFS, lost and never went back. I’m here to tell you, that is just not enough action to make a decision on this great game. Baseball has more variance than any other sport on a night to night basis and even on a night where you make all the “correct” plays, you’re going to lose. It happens. It’s what makes bankroll management so key here. Playing 5-10% of your roll per night is critical to surviving. A friend of mine who just got into baseball side of DFS recently joined the Razzball Framily Plan $2 league and won the whole kit and kaboodle. He e-mailed me after saying what a confidence boost that was and I completely understand that sentiment. Winning early is probably the biggest factor in people sticking with this. I’d just like to suggest you give yourself enough rope to play for 20-30 days. Track your results and then make a decision. Don’t make the call to quit after one day. If your process is a good one over the span of 30 days, you’ll see a profit. That, over the long haul of the baseball season, really adds up. Now, let’s get to some picks that will get you winning early and hopefully winning often.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Pump the brakes! Something I told myself I wanted to do when I took this gig was to shoutout the previous week’s winner of the contest posted in my article. I’m starting that this week and hope to keep it going. So, if you take down the Framily Plan on a Tuesday night, look for you name here the following week. Everyone likes to see their name in print. This week, it’s a shout out to my aforementioned friend, Joshyb714 who squeaked out a 4 point victory to take home the top prize. Let’s see if you can earn yourself a shout out next week, hop on in.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
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