I’ve been staring at the sun, wondering when the hydrogen will be exhausted and if I have enough time for my crypto 401K to return to profitability before we all end up in a black hole. Maybe that’ll put the current global milieu in perspective. Everything we own, all that we do, will turn to dust and ash as the sun enters a red giant phase and envelops the earth in its helium-fueled delirium. Maybe by then I’ll understand the appeal of BTS. Maybe by then pitchers will be predictable.

In the meantime, we keep rolling — you, me, the guy down the street. We roll week after week, thinking that we armchair astrologers of baseball have some sort of seance equipment that tells us — accurately — the future performance of a player. Yet every time I consult my crystal ball, all I hear is “variance.” Same as it was last year, same as it is this year. People forget, Alec Mills and his 62MPH curveball was a top 20 pitcher through half of 2020. Last year’s #1 SP, Max Scherzer, had a 3.00 ERA / near 4.00 FIP through the first month, followed by a lackluster July where he had a 5.32 ERA and FIP (take that regression!) and a Robbie Ray-esque 2.3 HR/9. Again, this is the #1SP of 2021 and future first ballot Hall of Famer Max Scherzer we’re talking about. Being a good fantasy pitcher isn’t about being good every day. Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt didn’t become A-listers by being perfect in every single role. Amazon — the company — didn’t make a profit for nearly a decade after its founding. Same thing goes for pitches — being status quo is fine, but aces just tend to perform a bit better when they’re successful. Which brings me to the ol’ quote that should hang above your fantasy mantle: Being a good fantasy pitcher, is about being a better pitcher than other pitchers more often than not. If every pitcher in the league has a 4.50 ERA, the pitcher with a 4.49 ERA is the best in that category.