This week finds me in our Nation’s Capital attending a conference for my day job. If my day job is not baseball related (and unfortunately, it’s not), then you can be sure my mind is wandering from the current topic of discussion to our national pastime. Charts showing the latest results of this or that become monthly SLG or SB variations in my mind. Survey maps become strike zone heat maps. You get the picture.
I bet many of you have also sat in very similar rooms attending meetings or conferences for your own professions doing the very same thing. For me, the worst is being “locked up” in these meetings all afternoon when games are going on. While some check their e-mail or send a quick text, are you sneaking a peek at the scores and your fantasy players? Don’t feel bad, we’re in a judge-free zone here! I’m right there with you.
Fast forward. Now that the day’s lectures and evening “meeting” over ribs and refreshments are done, I sit in my hotel room gazing at the lights of Nationals Park in the distance, thinking how the mighty have fallen. It was only 3 short years ago that the Washington Nationals sat atop the MLB mountain. World Series Champions. Juan Soto was the next young superstar…and now his name is discussed in trade talks. Max Scherzer was still Max…now some are wondering if he’s even worth trading for. Anthony Rendon was healthy. Stephen Strasburg was throwing 60 feet, 6 inches. On and on… Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
This sequence is all too common across baseball. I could go back a few more years and outline a similar path for the Royals, or even farther back with the Marlins. There’s no reason to do that though, we know how this plays out. On the flip side, the Reds, Orioles, and Diamondbacks are the latest to reascend that mountain. Baseball is fun!
On a more micro level, we see similar peaks and valleys with individual players. Either year-to-year or even in-season, we see significant fluctuations in player output all the time. Some hitters struggle in April when it’s colder, only to thaw in the summer. Others tend to start out strong before fading later in the season. One of our main goals in fantasy baseball is to navigate the marathon season and predict these peaks and valleys with individual players. And that, my friends, is the focus of our article today.
You’re wondering, “What metric(s) are we going to use for this analysis?” Today, we’ll center our attention on a common analytic that is made up of other common analytics. Huh?
If you are wondering if I had a few too few “ribs” and too many “refreshments” in my recently concluded evening meeting, you may not be wrong. However, I’m not repeating myself in a drunken stupor here. I’m simply talking about On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS).
In the world of baseball, few metrics capture a player’s overall offensive impact quite like OPS. This all-encompassing statistic combines a player’s ability to reach base and hit for power, making it a true reflection of offensive prowess. As we know all too well, even the most gifted baseball players can find themselves grappling with a confounding OPS slump. Yet, throughout our years of fantasy baseball, we have witnessed numerous stories of players who have risen like a phoenix from the ashes of a dismal OPS performance.
Let’s quickly go back one short season. In 2022, we saw a number of players put up stronger numbers after the All-Star Break. Sure, the summer Aaron Judge had last year puts him at the top of the list, regardless of his numbers prior to the break. What about the others? Do you remember who they were?
Alas, here are the top 15 players who peaked after the Break and the delta between their 1st and 2nd half OPS production:
Did you guess Tony Kemp? Randal Grichuk? Daulton Varsho? If only there were ways to identify some of these players before the correction. Fear not my friends, there are ways we can parse the available information and try to identify this season’s crop. Some are relatively simple, others can be complex, and absolutely none of them are surefire. If there was a guaranteed formula for identifying risers and fallers, I wouldn’t be sitting in a non-baseball related conference this week, trust me. But I digress…
Today, we lean on the mountains of work done during the off-season and pre-season to inform our drafts. By comparing projected OPS and the results from the 1st half, we can identify some players we should take a deeper dive on. Make no mistake, the final answer may or may not be contained in this article. Those will be revealed for certain in the coming weeks by their play. Again, if only I had that crystal ball… Nevertheless, we do have tools at our fingertips to start leveling the playing field and refining our search. What I can do for you today is provide a first step.
There are many prominent names on this OPS underperformers list. When we run this particular analysis again in October, I fully expect their numbers will normalize and they’ll fall off this list.
There are also some interesting names you may not have predicted. Remember Tony Kemp, Randal Grichuk, and Daulton Varsho making the final list in 2022? The 2023 version of the 2nd half “OPS risers” list very well may include names like Elehuris Montero, Alejandro Kirk, and Ty France. In fact, there are a couple names in this list that I’ve been looking at over the past few weeks for other reasons. Being included on this list of OPS underachievers provides me some confirmation that I’m chasing some of the right bumpers. Some may work out, some not. That’s the fun of it all.
Take this list and start your research. Parse through all the data we typically talk about in these articles for the categories you’re in need. Take a shot on a few players right away and watch others for now. Maybe you’ll find that golden nugget to help you win your fantasy championship. As I always say, just keep sifting through the number. That’s where you find the gems!
Follow me on Twitter: @Derek_Favret.
Until next time, my friends!
