For the third installment of a full division’s worth of players, I offer you the AL West.
After the surprise meh-ness of the AL East middle infields, I did not have high expectations for the seemingly weaker AL West division. But I was pleasantly surprised to find that I like at least parts of each middle infield group. Each set of players has either upside or an established baseline, which makes them interesting to think about, especially in 12-team leagues and deeper.
All stats I reference in this article are as of end of play on 5-6-25.
The depth chart (according to MLB.com) of the 2B and SS positions for each team:
LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM – when healthy, surprisingly good
In a healthy season, I really like the Neto and Rengifo options for this infield. Although Rengifo is currently lining up at 3B about 75% of the time, this infield has a chance to be in flux due to the inconsistency of Paris and the lack of decent backup options. Who knows where Rengifo will end up playing?
2B: Kyren Paris, Luis Rengifo, Kevin Newman
SS: Zach Neto, Tim Anderson, Kevin Newman
Tim Anderson’s last year of relevance was 2022, and he was only able to provide 351 PAs that year. And then his power just disappeared. Poof. Gone. He has 1 HR in his last 829 PAs, and I see no reason to think that will change anytime soon.
My one concern about Zach Neto going into this season was his shoulder. Over his first 65 PAs, his 4 HRs, 52.3% HH%, and a Barrell% that is up 7.5 points from last year all suggest the shoulder is just fine. If so, he has plenty of signs that suggest he will repeat and even improve upon last year’s mini breakout of .249 AVG, 23 HR, 70 R, 77 RBI, and 30 SB. If you got Neto in your draft at a pick of 200+, that is the kind of pick that can help you win a league. Well done.
Kevin Newman is an emergency option for the Angels and shouldn’t even be on anyone’s roster unless you’re in an insanely deep league. If, however, playing time opens up due to Paris or Rengifo (see my reasons below), there’s value to be had in a 15-team league. Over the last 3 years, he has averaged 291 PAs, a .247 AVG, 2.33 HRs, 33.3 Rs, 26.67 RBIs, and 8 SBs. There is nothing impressive there, but it certainly offers some value extrapolated over full-time playing time. If either Paris or Rengifo goes down, then I’ll be at least kicking the tires.
A few weeks ago, a reader asked why I hadn’t ranked Paris in my 2B list of April 17th. My response was that I didn’t buy Paris was really breaking out. My reasoning at that time:
[I]f you look at his plate discipline (not good…), his ability to make consistent contact, his ability to lay off pitches outside the zone, nothing is very good. In fact, most of it’s flat-out bad. I can’t find a single projection system that takes Paris’s recent hot streak as signs of a breakout, and I sure don’t see anything that suggests he will. I hope I’m wrong, but right now, everything looks driven by BABIP and the fact that he’s squaring the ball up better. His HH% and Barrel% are WAY up, but he’s not hitting the ball any harder. He just happens to be hitting more line drives right now, and he’s keeping the ball off the ground a bit better. It truly just looks like a hot streak.
I’m not always right, and I may turn out not to be in the long run, but Paris has fallen. From April 18th to present, he has hit a whopping .093, with an OBP of .133, 1 R, 2 RBI, 0 HR, and 0 SB. Yikes.
Slumps happen, but Paris’s profile is built for slumps. His contact skills (or lack thereof) and his nearly 40% K% with a similar 35% CSW% make getting demoted to the minors a real option for him. His massive HH% and Barrel% also suggest that when he makes contact with the ball, it’s probably going to be good contact. When Paris is locked in, he’s a fun player to watch, but he isn’t someone I would want to roster unless I’m trying to catch lightning in a bottle.
Rengifo is off to a sluggish start with some numbers that tell me he’s the same guy he always was, but he’s probably still injured. His Contact% and Z-Contact% are virtually identical to his career numbers. His one number that is troublingly elevated is his CStr%, which means he isn’t swinging at strikes as often as he has over the previous three seasons. And when he makes contact, he isn’t hitting the ball as hard (his HH% has dropped by around 5.5%, and his Barrel% has always been bad). His maxEV is down nearly 6 mph, and his EV is down 1 mph.
This tells me that his body may not be working the way he wants it to work, and his miniscule 3 SBA with a SB success rate of 33% tells me a similar story. When he’s healthy again, I love the guy’s game, but I’m hesitant to have him anywhere near my lineup currently. That said, I absolutely don’t want to cut him unless my roster is just too shallow to keep a player who isn’t performing.
HOUSTON ASTROS – depends on whether Trash Can Man is at 2B
When Jose Altuve plays 2B, this middle infield is really good. When he plays LF, this position group has an underrated contributor in Jeremy Pena, but the 2B position without Altuve is BAD.
2B: Mauricio Dubon, Jose Altuve, Brendan Rodgers
SS: Jeremy Pena, Mauricio Dubon
So far, Houston has mostly stuck to its plan to put Altuve in LF, which would make sense if they were playing anyone of quality at 2B. So far, that hasn’t happened (Rodgers and Dubon anyone?), so I wonder how much longer this experiment can last.
We don’t have to spend much time assessing Altuve as an offensive player: he’s good. I wish he weren’t, but he is. He’s off to a slow-ish start this season, but that may be explained simply by his having to think about a new position in the field. His underlying stats all look pretty much in line with what they were last year. And last year’s numbers were pretty much right in line with the year before, and so on. The only real change I see that indicates the decline phase is starting is that he is less patient at the plate and is both swinging at outside pitches more often and swinging and missing more often. I suspect he’s having to make his decision to swing earlier due to loss of bat speed, but he’s been able to cover for that so far: his surface numbers are pretty much what we’d expect from Altuve.
There is value in having Mauricio Dubon on a roster because he is eligible at multiple positions. He also has good plate discipline and will probably hit for an AVG that won’t hurt and might even help bump up your team’s AVG by a couple of points. But he is otherwise what “boring” would look like if it were a baseball player.
In a 15-team league, having a Swiss Army knife that can give you a .260 AVG, 10 HR, and 8-10 steals over 450 PAs is a good player to have around. Otherwise, he probably isn’t a consideration for you.
The worst thing about Jeremy Pena is that folks in my leagues have figured out how sneaky good he is. When he came into the league, he made a splash with 22 HR and 11 SB. But he accomplished those numbers with some not-so-great habits. In year 2, his surface numbers went down, but he showed significant signs of being a better player. His plate discipline, in particular, got better, and he has continued to make improvements in that area.
It may turn out that his 22 HR were a bit of an outlier, though I don’t think that will end up being the case. His underlying skills say he is now a disciplined hitter, so slumps will be fewer in frequency and shorter in duration. His skill markers make me think he has continued to progress as a player, and his HH% improvement of nearly 7% makes me think a 20 HR / 20 SB season is a legitimate possibility this year.
Once upon a time, Brendan Rodgers had some prospect hype, but he never fully blossomed into a hype-worthy player. Unlike Pena, his quest to hit the ball hard has resulted in really no more HR, but his K% has continued to increase the last few years. He looks to be headed for a cliff that might not allow him to reach his already-modest numbers from previous years. I have no desire to roster him unless the league is 15-team or larger.
WEST SACRAMENTO ATHLETICS (by way of Oakland, and, one day, if they play their cards right, Las Vegas) – not as bad as you might expect
Don’t get me wrong: this is not an impressive middle infield group, but it’s also not without hope.
2B: Luis Urias, Zack Gelof (IL), Max Schuemann
SS: Jacob Wilson, Max Schuemann, Luis Urias
Zack Gelof may be Kyren Paris with marginally better plate discipline. While his 300 PA mini-breakout in 2023 looks unlikely to repeat, there are certainly some baseline skills that make a 20 HR / 20 SB season a reasonable possibility every year. Equally as possible, however, is a demotion to the minor leagues after extended periods of looking like he forgot how to hit a baseball. Last year’s .211 AVG looks as though it may be about as good as Gelof gets over 500+ PAs, which you might be able to stomach if he provides power and speed. Just know that the low points of the season may be frequent and long. Just as I said for Paris, Gelof is a fun player to watch when he’s locked in, but he isn’t someone I necessarily want to roster.
Max Schuemann is Gelof lite – he has less power, but significantly better contact skills. West Sacramento doesn’t really want to play Schuemann for extended periods, but if Gelof or Wilson were to get injured, Schuemann might not be a bad option for 12-team leagues and deeper. He will maintain a K% in the high-20s, but his plate discipline and ability to take a walk suggest that he is probably less volatile than Gelof. Currently, though, he has no reason to be on most fantasy players’ radars.
What year is it?
Prior to the season, I would have assumed that Luis Urias’s best days were behind him and that he wouldn’t make a major league roster. But 83 PAs into the season, he looks kind of like the 2021-22 version of himself. His contact metrics are significantly higher than his career numbers, probably related to his much-improved 18% O-Swing%. If he can maintain some semblance of the plate discipline he’s currently showing, he might quietly put together 400 PAs with an AVG in the .220-.235 range, 12-15 HR, and 3-5 SB. There’s value to be had with that kind of line. He is currently playing enough to get there, so Urias may be worth rostering in deep leagues.
I wrote up a rundown of Jacob Wilson for my March 27th waiver wire piece, where I described Wilson as essentially Luis Arraez. Check out these two stat lines, and tell me which player is Wilson and which player is Arraez:
.289 AVG, 3 HR, 13 R, 12 RBI, 2 SB, 5.6% BB%, and 2.4% K% in 126 PAs
.341 AVG, 3 HR, 19 R, 20 RBI, 1 SB, 4.1% BB%, and 4.1% K% in 145 PAs.
Your assumption might be that the .341 AVG belongs to Arraez, but that would be incorrect. Wilson currently has the superior AVG – though Arraez has earned our trust that he will eventually end up somewhere over .300. Otherwise, the stat lines suggest there is very little difference on a per game basis between these two players. If Jacob Wilson is still on your waiver wire, he’s worth picking up in 12-team leagues and deeper.
SEATTLE MARINERS – not pretty, but possibly useful
At first glimpse, this looks like a terrible middle infield group, yet 2 of these guys are on several of my rosters.
2B: Miles Mastrobuoni, Leo Rivas, Dylan Moore
SS: JP Crawford, Leo Rivas, Dylan Moore
JP Crawford
JP Crawford isn’t the least bit flashy, and he doesn’t seem like someone who would ever be on most rosters. But when we look at his final line at the end of the season, he has a reasonable shot of a .250 AVG, 15-18 HR, 60-70 R, 45-50 RBI, and 5 SB in 500+ PAs. I have no problem rostering a player like that in 15-team leagues, and depending on my injury situation, I might be looking in his direction in 12-team leagues at some point in the season.
The Mariners have been forced to give Miles Mastrobuoni 74 PAs so far this year. Not ideal. Also, not someone that most fantasy players would have any reason to roster.
Dylan Moore is currently hitting .284, which almost certainly isn’t sustainable. His HH% of 41.4 and his Barrel% of 13.8 both look a bit lucky, but otherwise, Moore’s numbers are just what he does. Last year, Moore reached 441 PAs, allowing him to get to 10 HR, 53 R, 42 RBI, and 32 SB. Those numbers are a real contribution from someone who is eligible almost everywhere on the field. If you can stomach an AVG that will probably end up closer to .210-.215, Moore isn’t a bad player to roster. In 15-team leagues and deeper, he can be the player who keeps you from having to roster 3 other guys to fill what he can do by himself. Players with that kind of positional flexibility can be your best friend even if you’d rather not put him in your lineup until there is an injury need. He is one of my most rostered players.
Even with his current .341 AVG, he probably offers no real value. And now that Dylan Moore is back from the IL, chances are that the PAs he’s received since mid-April will go away.
TEXAS RANGERS – old and breaking down
This middle infield has name value, but do you really want the headache?
2B: Marcus Semien, Josh H. Smith
SS: Corey Seager, Josh H. Smith
Corey Seager is a pure hitter, and for his 450-500 healthy PAs, I’d love to have him in my lineup. But get used to seeing him on the IL.
Is Marcus Semien washed? His surface numbers have us all asking that question, but his underlying data just doesn’t support that narrative. His HR/FB rate and his BABIP suggest luck is playing a role.
Semien is known for slow starts – he started slowly in 2021, 2022, and 2023, and at the end of each of those seasons, his final numbers had him among the top 2Bs in the league. Last year’s numbers have fantasy players nervous that the cliff is here – and it might be. I’ve said repeatedly that I’m worried about the toll his iron man status has put on his body. So maybe he’s washed. He is most certainly in the decline phase.
Just in case the end is here, if I have the option to bench him, I absolutely am doing so. But I’m just not ready to assume his days of being good are completely over, so I can’t bring myself to cut him. If he hasn’t bounced back by the beginning of June, I’ll change my tune.
Josh Smith isn’t exactly an exciting player, but the Rangers seem to love him. Last year’s final line of a .258 AVG, 13 HR, 67 R, 62 RBI, and 11 SB in 592 PA were helpful in the same way Dylan Moore is helpful: Smith’s positional flexibility shrinks your roster needs, and his ability to contribute a little in category (even in AVG, unlike Moore) makes him a gift. I think all of the projection systems are underestimating how many PAs Smith will get. If we add 200 PAs to his current projections, his end of season line looks like a .250 AVG with 15 HR, 65-75 R & RBI, and 15 SB. I’ll happily take those numbers just about everywhere.
That’s the list for this week. My high hopes for the AL East may have been dashed, but it looks to me like the AL West offers positional flexibility and value. Until next time. – ADHamley
I truly want to get Jacob Wilson onto my H2H points league team, to the point where I’m wishing that Gunnar H will announce that yeah, he’s hurt, and going on the IL. That’s pretty sick. But my UTIL guys are Soderstrom & Perdomo in this league, and I don’t want bench bats in a points league.
Man, first-world problems…
I like Wilson, but not enough to want Gunnar out of my lineup! I’m hoping he’s just rusty, but yeah, an injury could definitely still be there. I agree it’s time for him to pick it up or for the O’s to be more open about what his problem is.
Sometimes, options are bad when it comes to lineups. I almost prefer when I just have one guy that can go into a slot; that way, I don’t overthink my start/sit decision.