Just went over the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball and today we give you our top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball. Then we’ll go over the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball then top 20 1st basemen and so on and so forth as we do onto our 2010 Fantasy Baseball rankings as you would want them done onto you. In the top 10, I battled with maybe one or two spots, but this top 20 that I gave birth to was a true labor of love, battling with myself on just about every spot. I’m pleased with what I settled on, but I could see an argument made to reshuffle some of these players. The 2nd round is easily the hardest round to peg. In some cases, I think I’d prefer the 3rd round to the 2nd round. Yes, the 3rd round is the new 2nd round. This will probably need its own post. As always, tiers are mentioned and my 2010 fantasy baseball projections. Anyway, here’s the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball:
11. Evan Longoria – As mentioned in the top 10 rankings post, this continues the previous tier of players. This tier started at Teixeira and will end at Wright. Longoria feels like he should be in the Braun and Kemp class of players that could conceivably get better. The strikeouts aren’t pretty and will hinder his average to an extent, but the power and speed are there. He ranked above Wright because of his power. At 3rd base, you want a guaranteed 30 homers more than a guaranteed 15 steals. 2010 Projections: 100/36/115/.280/10
12. Tim Lincecum – 12th was the absolutely latest I was able to rank a guy who has back-to-back seasons of 260 Ks. Sure, I don’t like taking pitching in the early rounds, but it’s hard to argue with a guy whose FIP was 2.34 and who lowered his walk rate. The only knock on Lincecum is his lower back issues towards the end of 2009 and his resemblance to k.d. lang. 2010 Projections: 18-5/2.70/1.00/250
13. David Wright – As I mentioned in the opening, this 2nd round is tricky and has a lot to do with who you took in the first round. If you took A-Rod, then you don’t take Wright. But imagine pairing Ryan Howard with David Wright. That’s like pairing Boone’s Strawberry Hill with a chili dog. That’s a meal fit for a king! Prior to last year, three of the last four years Wright’s HR/FB rates were above 16 percent. Last year, he had a home run to fly ball rate of 6.9. So I’m chalking some of last year up to bad luck. Now consider he’s still capable of 20 steals and a .300 average. Even if Metco’s fences stay in the outer boroughs, Wright can be very valuable. 2010 Projections: 100/25/110/.300/17
14. Ian Kinsler – This begins a new tier. This tier is called, “Why is the 2nd round so tricky this year?” This tier goes from here to Gonzalez. I can’t remember a year when I’ve been so legitimately flummoxed with the 2nd round. Is Kinsler great? Sure. Do I feel 100% confident in him? As about as confident as I would practicing the withdrawal method with Octo-Mom. Kinsler isn’t a great average hitter, but he’s better than the .253 he showed last year. He’s not a .300 hitter either. He’s a near lock for 25/25 at 2nd base and that carries a lot of weight. Is he that different than Brandon Phillips? They’re both six-feet tall, weigh around 200 lbs, injured more times than I’d like and their birthdays are six days apart. Maybe they’re one player pulling The Alex P. Keaton When He Had Two Dates For The Prom And He Had To Keep Switching His Tie trick. 2010 Projections: 110/29/80/.270/34
15. Matt Holliday – I just went over my Holliday fantasy last week so I’m not going to beat Secretariat. I’ll only say that I don’t think Holliday is necessarily the hitter we saw in the 2nd half times two. He goes on hot streaks, that’s what last year’s 2nd half was. In 2006 and 2007 on the Rockies, he hit 10 and 12 homers in the month of September respectively. In 2005, he hit 15 homers post-All-Star Break and four before. When the games are on the line for real baseball and H2H, Holliday is there. Sometimes that’s frustrating with roto. 2010 Projections: 105/28/115/.320/15
16. Troy Tulowitzki – I tried to drop Tulo as low as I could because he’s deriving a lot of his value from his 2009 steals. As I said at the end of the season last year, “I wish I believed in all of the steals he racked up this year, but his total is about three times the most he’s ever recorded in any season of professional ball. Still, he’s good, and can get a bit better on the power side.” And that’s me quoting me! The reason why I couldn’t drop him any lower is because of his position, his park, his age and his power. Remember if you draft him, he doesn’t start playing until May at the earliest. 2010 Projections: 95/35/105/.280/12
17. Grady Sizemore – I already went over in my Grady Sizemore 2010 fantasy baseball post-a-ma-thing-whosies. After his girlfriend revealed photos of Grady visually detailing his sports hernia recovery, he revealed he’d be ready for the start of 2010. I believe him. 2010 Projections: 110/27/80/.270/25
18. Carl Crawford – Every time I looked at Crawford, I kept thinking to myself, where’s Ellsbury? They should be right next to each other, shouldn’t they? After all, their names together sound like a law firm. Crawford benefits from just a bit more power, but his knees are getting creaky and we rely on his speed for a lot of his value. Honestly, I’m hoping he gets off to a hot start and I can tell you to sell him at the end of May. 2010 Projections: 110/14/65/.290/50
19. Adrian Gonzalez – The 20th pick is not an easy one. I pieced together different draft scenarios with glue and old issues of TV Guide and it spelled out A-Gonz. If my fantasy baseball ransom note meant Alex Gonzalez, I apologize. I just can’t get past that I want a 1st baseman in the first few rounds. And, most importantly, I want a guy I can rely on. Votto is great, but he probably won’t sniff 35+ homers, Morneau is fine but his power and health are wonky, Carlos Pena is fine, but he’s a .250 hitter going on a .230 one. Obviously, if you own Fielder, Tex or Howard, you’re not taking Gonzalez. I think last season was Gonzalez’s power peak, but it was still solid. He should more or less maintain it. One thing to be aware of is his involuntarily climbing walk rate. That’s what hitting behind Sub Standard and in front of Nadir Bupkis will do to you. 2010 Projections: 90/38/100/.280
20. Jimmy Rollins – Rollins didn’t really do anything wrong in 2009. Sure, he had a bad average. But that wasn’t his fault. He was 40 points off his career BABIP. He’s not a .290 hitter, but he’s not a .250 hitter either. Even with that terrible average, he scored 100 runs. Unlike Benjamin Button, he’s not getting any younger so I think the steals will continue to decline, but not noticeably for 2010. 2010 Projections: 110/20/65/.275/28
After the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s three big names that were purposely omitted:
Joe Mauer – Just went over the overrated Mauer and Mark Reynolds overrated posts. But I felt that I needed to address the two elephants in the room again. Mauer’s HR/FB rate was through the roof last year. In 2008, he hit 139 fly balls and 9 homers. In 2009, 137 fly balls and 28 homers. There’s no way he hits 28 homers again. Then throw in the wear and tear he takes at his position and how he’s already battled more injuries than the “merely a flesh wound” guy. Then throw in he’s tops at a weak position. I.e., is there that much difference between him and Napoli? Sure, on average and Runs. Not much elsewhere. See catcher, punt catcher. 2010 Projections: 100/20/85/.330/3
Mark Reynolds – Guys (and two girl readers), this is 2010. Don’t draft for 2009. Reynolds had an incredible year last year and hit .187 in September. What if he hits .187 in April and June? You’re gonna be looking to start a midseason fantasy baseball league cause your preseason one got bungled. 2010 Projections: 85/35/95/.250/12
Jose Reyes – Wait, so he’s washed up at the age of 26? So he went from a top three pick to out of the top 20 because he was injured last year? C’mon. This isn’t about last year. Sure, he was a miserable prick last year for getting injured and ruining your fantasy team. How dare he! But that was last year. Now this year, he has a something roid… Oh, thyroid. Right. It’s not great that he’s starting the year on the DL, but Mauer did it last year and A-Rod and Utley… It’s a long season, if you can get Reyes at a discount, go for it. 2010 Projections: 105/11/55/.285/45
