Fantasy Baseball Advice

A rejected title was, “BJ Stands For Blown Job.”  BJ Ryan was pronounced with a something-or-other injury to his something-or-other as he heads to the Disgraceful List.  A’la Lili Taylor in Say Anything, “JP Ricciardi lies…  He lies when he cries…”  Ever see anything like this?  JP Ricciardi always upgrades injury.  Slight arm trouble = end of year surgery.  God forbid Ricciardi ever says you need end of year surgery.  Scott Downs will take over the bulk of the saves, but Jason Frasor will be right there in the mix.  “Hey, Frasor, what are you doing there?”  “I’m in the mix!”  If someone in your league was quicker than you to grab Downs, grab Frasor.  Downs goes… Frasor!  Downs goes… Frasor!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Carlos Quentin – Left the game after getting hit on the hand.  Supposedly just a day-to-day thing.  Maybe Quentin could wear that forearm protector like Iron Mike Sharpe.

Cole Hamels – Struck by a Prince Fielder liner.  Can’t you do anything right, Fielder?!  Hamels is said to be fine and should make his next start.  It feels like this is going to be one of those years for Hamels. He just seems cursed.

Dave Bush – No hitter through 8.  Then next game he’ll give up six earned in 5 innings.  Don’t even try to figure him out.  There’s a Sphinx in Milwaukee made of frozen custard and it says, “What is the deal with Dave Bush?”

Kyle Lohse – He heard his knee pop.  Headed for an MRI.  Sounds bad.  Actually, sounds good, because he shouldn’t have been on your team anyway.

Jerry Manual – He said after today’s game that besides Johan, all his pitchers stink and they’re all in danger of losing their spots in the rotation.  Maine, Livan and Curly aren’t doing it for you?

Jose Valverde – Said he should be back by Friday.  I’d hold Hawkins until you see a save or two from Valgreen’s.

Aaron Harang – 7 IP, 0 ER.  The Harangatuan is back! (About 10 months late for all my fantasy teams he ruined last year.  Old wounds!)

Joey Votto – 4-for-5, HR.  I said he’d move above Berkman for next year.  That shizz is documented.

Alex Rios – 1st home run yesterday.  Glad someone finally told Rios that the season has started.

Kevin Millwood – 7 IP, 4 ER.  You mean he’s not going to have a sub-2.00 ERA this year?  Aw, shucks.  I knew I shouldn’t have played the horn.

Chris Davis – Third homer yesterday as the race tightens between him and Reynolds.

Chien-Ming Wang – Struckout 11 with no walks in an extended spring training game.  Um, cool.  So only start him in games in Florida? He’s headed for the Disgraceful List too.

Joel Zumaya – Returning Friday.  Okay, but he’s still not going to be the closer for while unless Rodney drops a turd sandwich.  Then there’s Brandon Lyon to contend with too.  And Ryan Perry.

Wandy Rodriguez – 6 IP, 1 ER.  Grey, do you like Wandy this year? Random italicized voice, I’ve been saying I’m on the Wandwagon as for back as early February.  How about Verlander? *sigh*

Alberto Callaspo – Hitting .381 on the year.  I’ve long been a fan of Callaspo, even when he was back in the Diamondbacks organization.  He can be a cheap average source in very deep leagues (Think AL-Only).  He has very little speed or power though.

Ricky Romero – To the DL (POW!).  Brett Cecil will replace him.  Cecil has solid stuff, but he was getting hit hard in the minors thus far this year.  Unless it’s a very deep league, he’s not worth a flier yet.

Derek Holland – If he dazzles on Friday night against the O’s, you’re going to wish you owned him.  I’d grab him, bench him and then watch to see what his results are.  I.e.  He’s not long for the bullpen.

Brandon Wood – I got an idea.  Let’s bring up our prospect that has proven himself in the minors and then sit him.  Good idea, we don’t want to sit Chone Figgins.  He’s batting .246!  Idiots.

Vladimir Guerrero – Jayson Stark, who I thought only collected odd baseball nuggets, reports that an anonymous source says Vlad isn’t coming back in a month.  Stark’s source says, “How’s he coming back in a month from a torn pec?  When those offensive linemen get that injury in the NFL, they’re out for the year.”  Looks like you shouldn’t draft Vlad for your fantasy football league either.  This is obviously very bad news for Vlad owners.  Couple of things about that statement.  1) Why an anonymous source?  Is that news that hush-hush on the QT?  2) That “scoop” sounds really ancedotal.  3)  Why does an anonymous source need to tell Stark this?  The Angels, or any doctors on ESPN’s payroll, or any doctors in the world couldn’t tell us that a torn pec would cost Vlad a few months?  This is all so baffling to me.

Always one to double check his Razzbill of sale to make sure he got everything he paid for, Razzball commenter Ron Mexico’s Papi saw my post yesterday about holding tight in your fantasy baseball leagues and flipped the script to ask me about selling high.  Surely, if some guys should be held because they’re bound to revert to their old, productive selves then there must be guys who need to be sold off because there’s no way they can retain their torrid start.  Yes, definitely.  This is why I do a Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell every Friday, not a Buy/Buy.  (Mr. Mexico also offered a few names, some of which I’m going to go over specifically in Friday’s Buy/Sell.) But first I wanted to talk about the concept of selling someone high, in general.

Baseball, fantasy and otherwise, is a great game because players do what they’re supposed to do for the most part over the long season, while having huge fluctuations from game to game.  If Nadir Bupkus is supposed to be terrible for the season, chances are he will be terrible.  Nadir may have a good game or two.  Maybe even a month.  But come October, he’s still Nadir Bupkus.  Same with talented players.  If Apex Pinnacle has shown the ability to hit well in the majors, he should be able to continue  — outside of injuries/age.  All the time players come out of nowhere and perform above their heads for a small sample size.  But as Grey’s past girlfriends have said, “Beware the small sample size.”  You need to know a player’s true worth.

Over a season, is Bonifacio someone that could hit .320 and steal 60 bases?  More than likely, no.  In fact, it’s a pipe dream.  He does have speed, but he can’t hit.  He’s shown he swings and misses and does not walk a lot.  So his value is speed.  There’s a place for that (just not at 3rd).  Now if Bonifacio lucks into a decent average, because average does have some to do luck, then yay!  Good for you.  Go buy your sister a nose job.  But you don’t pay hoping to luck into something.  So how do you know a player’s true worth?  Well, you might not.  But that’s why there’s comments…

Francisco Liriano went four innings and gave up seven runs against a team that absolutely kills lefties in Fenway.  Let’s run down his 3-year averages for the months of the season, starting with April: 6.93, 1.99, 1.51, 2.31, 1.13 and 4.36.  You think he might need some time to get going?  His April combined ERA for the last 3 years, not including this year, is almost 7.  His combined May through August ERAs are under 2. Are you kidding me? Heffin’ hey, trade for him! This might be the best buy you find right now.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Kurt Suzuki – First HR of the season yesterday.  He hit one HR through the middle of June last year.  What is everyone doing at Yankee Stadium?  Is it the Macarena?  The Electric Slide?  No, it’s The Jetstream!

Justin Verlander – 5 IP, 7 ER.  It’ll get better, but it’s not going to get much better to make him a buy candidate.

Joe Saunders – 5 IP, 5 ER.  Take out the Liquid Paper; more corrections to come.

Andre Ethier – Hit his 5th HR yesterday.  Frankly, sometimes I’m wrong. (17% of the time!)  I had my doubts about whether he would produce this year, but he’s doing it.

Hunter Pence – 4th homer, 3rd steal in yesterday’s game.  Marching towards 25/15 and top 30 outfielder status.

Francisco Cordero – 6th save, 1.29 ERA. Member he was a mess in spring training?  Uh-huh.

Kevin Gregg – 1 IP, 1 ER, 6.43 ERA.  Member he was a mess in– Oh, wait.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 0 ER. 2.55 ERA on the season.  In the preseason, I said I was higher on Cueto this year than Volquez.  I wasn’t joking.

Milton Bradley – 0-for-4, 3 Ks.  Batting .043 so far this season when he shows up healthy and it’s not raining.  Cubs fans were booing him yesterday like he was Bartman and a goat’s love child.

Willy Taveras – 0-for-2, batting .268.  Wait, he’s no longer batting .400?  Ah, dim the lights in Ted Williams’s freezer for one more year.

David Purcey – 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER. Still burping.

Omar Vizquel/Ian Kinsler/Andruw Jones – Is there anyone not batting over .400 on the Rangers?  Oh, Salty B. Davis.

Jair Jurrjens – 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER.  1.42 ERA on the year.  I really like Jar-Jar this year.  I don’t think his ERA stays anywhere near where it is, obviously.  But he can keep it around 3.75 with some Ks.

Adam Dunn – 0-for-4. Oh, well. .300’s in the rear view.

Scott Baker – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Someone’s having a bit of a problem with the long ball.  If you had to ask me if he’s going to rebound in May like CC last year, or if he’s going to become completely unusable like Gorzelanny.  I’d take Gorz and June as the under.  I think Baker’s headed for the Disgraceful List. You don’t give up 7 home runs in 8 and two-thirds and just suddenly say, “Hey, you know what?  I just realized I was supposed to be throwing the ball harder.  And in better locations.”

Brian Bannister – Maybe he just likes pitching in April.  Pumpkin’s ETA is one week.

Josh Fields – HR, 3-for-5, batting in the 2 hole.  If this sticks, and, with Ozzie, anything’s possible, this could boost Fields’s value a lot.

Carlos Villanueva – Back as the setup man.  Only he was setting up Todd Coffey.  The Baron, frequent commenter/guest poster, pegged Coffey as an out of nowhere closer that gets 30 saves this year as Hoffman continues to get injured.  Not as crazy as it sounds.

Chris Young – 7 IP, 6 baserunners, 0 ER.  I like him; you know that.  But it sure don’t hurt when there’s only one guy in the opposing starting lineup hitting .300.

John Danks – 7 IP, 1 ER.  I feel like this guy isn’t getting the respect he deserves.  So far I’ve mentioned him in two of three Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sells as a Buy.  I put him as a starter to target in the preseason.  What do I have to do?  Help me, help you.

John Maine – 5.2 IP, 5 ER.  Outdueled by Joel Pineiro.  I just vomited onto my wall and it reads, “Punt.”

B.J. Ryan – 1 IP, 3 ER. Downs wasn’t much better making this a save situation in the first place by giving up a run.

Rafael Soriano – Got the save yesterday.  It was a tied game and Cox brought in his lefty closer into a tight game to face a tough lefty.  Don’t need to read too much into it.  Soriano’s 2nd in line, we knew that already though.

LaTroy Hawkins – Joey Valgreen’s decomposing right before our ojos – bad back, ankle, and calf.    We have no faith whatsoever in Hawkins but if he asked us to the SAGNOF dance, we’d accept the offer.  If you’ve got Valverde, go buy yourself some LaTroy Handcuffs…

Jay Bruce – Another HR.  This time I had him in my lineup.  Bruuuuuce!

Jeremy Guthrie – 6 IP, 5 ER.  Gotta know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em.  His team gives him no chances for wins, he faces the top offenses in baseball all the time, he doesn’t strikeout that many guys and he’s only a 4 ERA pitcher to begin with.   You win, world of Guthrie haters.  Are you happy?

Melky Cabrera – 2 HRs yesterday.  4 HRs in 23 ABs this year.  Everybody, come on!  We’re doing The Jetstream! (What? Trying too hard?)

I already sort of covered this when I went over how you should not be dropping guys from your fantasy baseball team that you just drafted because they’re in a slump.  Due to the amount of feedback that continues to come in about whether or not Chris Davis is worth more than Cristian Guzman (fill in any schmohawk name), I decided to cover the same topic again, but this time with examples.  

Back on April 30th of 2008, right after Shane Victorino was benched because of the hot Werth start, I said, “Victorino’s got too much to offer to be a bench player, he’ll be back in there. … Say Victorino doesn’t start for two weeks then he gets what? Four and a half more months to play. He can still get to 15/40. He only played in 131 games (in 2007) and he got 12/37. Patience is key.”

Now I have to expose a couple of commenters (I’ll remove their names to remove their shame), who just didn’t want to trust me with Victorino.  Bee tee dubya, these comments were the overriding sentiment last year, not just a few screwball loose cannons in Da Razzpound:

Commenter, “I dropped Victorino because he was kinda duplicating what I would get out of Rios as a leadoff hitter. Now they’ve moved Rios back to third and I’m thinking about picking Shane-o back up…he’s still available but it would require me to drop Willingham.”

My response, “Yeah, I’d be careful about making a move just based on a manager’s current whim.  Rios could be back in the leadoff spot today but that wouldn’t reduce Victorino’s appeal.”

Another commenter, “One slot open on my bench – who is more a better utility guy to have (the already owned) Votto or Victorino?”

My response, “You need Victorino more than Votto (because of your team’s makeup), but I wouldn’t drop Votto. I’d try and trade him.”

Those comments were not from April, but from the middle to the end of May of last year.  Shane Victorino finished 14th overall for all outfielders.  His final numbers were 102/14/58/.293/36.  Alexei’s off to a rough start, Prince Fielder sucks and Brandon Inge looks like Johnny Bench.  So when you’re thinking about writing players off in April and May, take a moment and chillax.  The season is looooong (too many O’s to count).  If you throw out everything you read in February/March, you’re doing much more harm than good. (Now go Google those comments to see who those comments are from.  You nosy!)

Ryan Doumit went from sleeper to 2nd tier fantasy catcher last year after he managed to take a year off from his Glass Joe impersonation that dogged him throughout 2006-2007 (2006 = 89 games missed w/ hamstring issues, 2007 = 26 games missed with wrist, and then 20 games with ankle).  Actually, he missed 27 games last year with thumb (20), concussion ( 5 ) and the flu (two separate days), so even when he’s healthy he’s “merely a flesh wound” away from the DL.  He’s now out for 8-10 weeks.  Punt!  (Or stash him on your DL if it’s empty.)  I’d look at Baker, Salty, Shoppach or Hundley, all those names depend on league depth, of course.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ian Stewart – Has played 5 games in OF (3 started).  He’s 5 games played away from OF eligibility in Yahoo! and ESPN.  He’s already eligible in Yahoo! for 2B and is 8 games away from ESPN eligibility.  With the way he’s hitting (and Seth Smith and Spilborghs are slumping), he might get OF eligibility by the end of April.  As for 2B, don’t count on it.  He’s lucky to get 1 start a week there so maybe you’re talking sometime in late June – unless Barmes gets hurt (what are the exacta odds on Helton and Barmes being on the DL at the same time by end of May?)

Brandon Wood – Called up yesterday.  Wood has the oh-so-coveted superfecta of eligibility.  He should be picked up in all 12 team leagues and deeper.  I’d put his projections at 17/10, .250.  There’s upside on the power and speed and downside on the average.  Granted, I’m a big fan of Wood in the right situations, especially if you’re trying to start a fire.

Freddy Sanchez – Dirty Sanchez hit a HR yesterday off Anibal Sanchez, while Gaby Sanchez wishes he could’ve seen it.

Manny Parra – 4 IP, 5 ER, 4 Ks.  See he does strikeout a guy an inning! And walk a guy an inning.  And give up a run every inning.  I hate to defend this crappy of a performance, but there was a play that knocked Weeks out of the game that should’ve been the 2nd out of the 4 run 1st.

Kenshin Kawakami – 5 IP, 2 ER.  I watched this game because I had both team’s pitchers.  Let’s just say I wanted one to get the Win and one to get the Loss and it didn’t work out how I wanted.  Kawakami looked sloppy at times and other times overpowering with junk, if that’s possible.

Brian McCann – Fitted with new contact lenses and should be fine.  Now is it me or don’t you think when you’re paying someone almost $4 million for 6 months of work you’d have an eye doctor on call to check on contact lenses?  He missed games because of this mishegoss?  What the eff?

Brandon McCarthy – 6 IP, 3 ER. Still giving up too many homers.

Franklin Morales – Left in the 3rd with shoulder pain.  Um, not good.

Aaron Laffey – 7 IP, 1 ER.  Two decent outings with him keeping the ball down.  He gets the Twins next time out.  They couldn’t hit a home run if you spotted them to 2nd base.

Nelson Cruz – Hit his 6th HR yesterday.  Could hit 35 HRs and bat .260.  Cust kayin’.

Cameron Maybin – First HR yesterday.  That’s so Maybin!

Oliver Perez – 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER.  He will give you severe heartburn.

Clayton Kershaw – 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER.  Now you buy him.  See how that works.

Rickie Weeks – Day to day.  Chipper, “Hey, me too!”

Toddy Coffey – Expected to get the saves while Hoffman is out.  Hoffman’s due back this weekend though.  Hastanueva!

Prince Fielder – Batting .163 on the year.  He’s killing me portly.

Matt Cain – 6 IP, 2 ER and the win.  I have a sidebet with myself that he has a better season than Lincecum.  I may welch.

Jake Peavy – 6 IP, 6 ER.  Peavy didn’t take his malaria pills and came down with a bad case of the Renterias.

Jay Bruce – Homered in his return to play.  Sonavabench!

Joey Devine – Will miss the season.  Left side of the mouth says, “Fore,” the right side of the mouth says, “Gone.”

Ryan Braun – 5-for-5, 2 HRs.  Rumors after the game were swirling that Moyer gave up both blasts so Braun would agree to a date with his granddaughter.

Mark Reynolds – HR yesterday.  Someone’s pulling away with the Davis/Reynolds HR crown.

Jarrod Washburn – 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  He’s been dynamite so far.  I wish I had him in my AL-Only league, but I wouldn’t trust him in any mixed league short of a 15 teamer.

Ryan Freel – To the DL with head trauma.  He said he was fine and could’ve avoided the DL.  Farney thought better of it.