This is one of the hardest posts to write all year. There’s so many different ways the top 20 for 2013 fantasy baseball could go. I almost wrote a top 10 for 2013 fantasy baseball and just made the tenth ranked guy a ten way tie with these guys and washed my hands of this post entirely. Isn’t David Wright as risky as Longoria but Wright didn’t even make the top 20? Then Beltre’s low with seemingly no risk? Where’s the pitchers? Posey’s not ranked? You know the NL MVP?! What gives, GA? McCutchen was crazy high and now Kemp is crazy low! Was I taking meds when I wrote this? Was I not taking my meds?! There’s a lot of questions to be answered as we continue our 2013 fantasy baseball rankings. There are not as many guarantees as I’d like. Verlander seems more safe than any of these hitters, but you can find so much pitching later, he didn’t even make the top 20. Thankfully, as VinWins’s data about our leagues shows, a 2nd round pick that you Mr. Bungle doesn’t spell doom. Last year, a Cano second round pick was solid and you finished around sixth out of 12 teams. An Adrian Gonzalez pick, which wasn’t great, had you finishing around sixth, too. One pick does not a team make. Here’s just twenty picks you should make. Anyway, here’s the top 20 for 2013 fantasy baseball:
11. Carlos Gonzalez – This tier started in the top 10 for 2013 fantasy baseball. This tier ends at Jones. I call this tier, “I really like these guys. Question marks be damned.” I could have also called this tier, “I’m hoping for big things from guys in the prime of their career, previous setbacks be damned.” Previous Setbacks, “Well, damn you right back!” CarGo doesn’t stay healthy for whole seasons, but he’s still only 27 years old. He’s good for 135 games and a 20/20 season. The rest of it is icing on the cake. Here’s hoping for a season with a lot of icing and his owners needing their insulin. 2013 Projections: 100/28/102/.307/19
12. Evan Longoria – Like Baby Jessica, eventually we have to stop going to this well. I’ll be the first to admit that if Longoria has a poor season in 2013, he’s gonna fall far in 2014, like, six to seven rounds later. Still, I refuse to write off a 27-year-old with MVP potential. He wasn’t bad last year. He was hurt. I know, over-the-internet friend. He’s always hurt. As late as November, he had an operation on his hamstring, the same hammy that plagued him last year. He says he’s fine now. He just needs to stay healthy. That is the only thing stopping him. If you prorate his 2012 over a full year, he had a solid year. A 32-homer, 100+ RBI, .285 season. 3rd base is a wasteland after the top eight, and even some of those (Wright, Hanley, Headley, Zimmerman, Aramis) aren’t without their question marks. Beltre was conspicuously absent from that list, but I’ll get to him quicker than you can say, “You have Longoria above Beltre?!” As I said in my Todd Frazier sleeper post, there’s a lot of late, terrible 3rd basemen. If you’re gambling on Hanley bouncing back, that’s a different problem. If you’re gambling on Aramis not emitting a stank smell, that’s a different issue. If you’re gambling on Zimmerman and Headley, they’re a whole set of other problems. I’ll take the gamble on Longoria’s health first. Now if he’s having hamstring issues in the spring… Well, we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it, presumably on crutches. 2013 Projections: 89/32/107/.283/5
13. Adam Jones – I almost put Jones in the top ten and Justin Upton here. I lurve 27-year-old hitters entering their prime. Big time lurve. My lurve doesn’t have a painting of the Mona Lisa, it has a painting of Adam Jones. Here’s what we know for absolutely sure. Over the past two seasons, he’s averaging 28 homers, 14 steals, .284 average and 156 games. He is now in the prime of his career. Even if we only got an “average” year from him, you have a number one outfielder. There’s no weird injury issues. He had a flukey wrist injury in June and his power was zapped for two-plus months. In September, his power returned with six homers for the month. No odd spikes in K-rate or ground balls or BABIP. His line drive rate went up last year and, when he hit homers, only six of them were “Just Enough” out of 32. The only thing that hurt his value last year were his 82 RBIs. You and I — hey, pal! — both know that RBIs have nothing to do with him. 2013 Projections: 90/34/100/.284/15
14. Matt Kemp – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until A-Gon. I call this tier, “Eff me in the coolie, why do I have so many concerns this early?!” Kemp couldn’t swing a bat until January due to a shoulder injury after he had surgery in October to reattach his labrum. Here I thought reattaching a labrum was something you’d hear about in a Breaking Amish reunion special. After the surgery, Kemp said, “I was definitely surprised and disappointed.” <sarcastic>This sounds awesome!</sarcastic> I think he’ll probably be his old-new-old self by late-May, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him put up numbers similar to last year. Unfortunately, his numbers last year were solid, but not spectacular. It’s a bit sucky that I’m going to miss out on his special brand of speed/power/handsomeness, but, with where I have him ranked, I probably won’t be owning him in 2013. 2013 Projections: 88/25/100/.294/19
15. Josh Hamilton – I went over my Josh Hamilton 2013 fantasy when he signed with the Angels. I wrote it while counting Arte Moreno’s checkbook zeroes. 2013 Projections: 92/29/109/.277/7
16. Adrian Beltre – The argument against my ranking of Beltre vs. Longoria is obvious. I am counting on a guy with burgeoning skills but health problems rather than a guy who looks like he could decline, but has been terrific the last two years. I’m going with the injury risk over the guy who will be 34 years old on April 7th. Beltre is admittedly a tough call for a few reasons. His Texas home run per fly ball rates are above his career average, but he’s also in Arlington and not Dodger Stadium or Safeco. He has been injured in the past, but one was of the Jockular Sphincteritis variety when a ball clipped his testicles, which sounds like an injury that would happen to a labradoodle. Stop licking your wound! That injury was of no fault of his (if it was his fault, he should see a shrink), so it’s a bit too fluky to say he’s injury-prone. Also, care of baseballheatmaps.com (a site you could get lost in for about an hour before you even start making sense of it; that’s a compliment), Beltre’s average home run went from 294.75 feet in 2010 to 287.6 feet in 2012, losing distance every year. To continue the Longoria comparison, his 2011 distance was 287.5 and 2012 it was 295.3. If Beltre reverts to his career mark in HR/FB% and he loses another few feet on his homers, you’re going to have him go from a 32-35 homer guy to a 26-29 homer guy. Then where do balls go if they’re not leaving the park? In outfielders’ gloves. If that happens, does he start hitting more ground balls? He has in years past. This isn’t saying stay away from Beltre, but he’s later on my draft board than I’ve seen him elsewhere. 2013 Projections: 82/28/103/.281/2
17. Ian Kinsler – Someone in this tier, if not the whole tier, will fail. I trust Kinsler as far as I can throw him. And I’m one hundred and sixty pounds soaking wet, and have been to the gym three times in my life; each time to sign up for a one-year membership that I never used. I can’t throw Jose Altuve! Between Kinsler and Nelson Cruz, the Rangers could do an off-Broadway adaption of M.A.S.H. (It’s the cross-dressing, Corporal Kinsler.), and that’s the bulk of the Rangers offense. Last year, Kinsler’s HR/FB rate went into the toilet, but it seems to happen every other year, which leads him to hit 30+ homers every odd year. He’s second base’s equivalent to Prince Fielder. Call him Kingsler. 2013 Projections: 102/25/77/.258/20
18. Jose Bautista – Nothing in his line from last year looks necessarily bad if you account for bad luck. According to out Expected Average Chart, he should’ve hit .281. The power was there as it’s been. Unfortunately, he had wrist surgery and wasn’t able to swing a bat until November. He says, I feel “great” and his strength is “coming back quickly” and the chicken parm is “like Mama used to make.” Hey, Bautista should work for Zagat. I expect he’ll be fine, but there’s a chance he has a setback and you lose him for the year. 2013 Projections: 91/32/100/.272/5
19. Paul Goldschmidt – His 2012 reminds me of random middle infielder year like Asdrubal’s 2011 or Aaron Hill’s every fourth year he produces. AuShizz had no business stealing 18 bags last year, and had every right to hit about ten more home runs than his 20 homer total. For those that missed our Steve Garvey interview, Goldschmidt was the one guy Rudy and I agreed on that we are crazy excited about for thirteen after twenty. His park is a solid hitters’ stadium — that’s assuming the Diamondbacks don’t trade away Goldschmidt because he has a Germanic last name — “Be gone, Krauts!” That’s Kevin Towers. — and Paul has great upside. Something that is not easy to find early in the 1st basemen rankings. Out of this tier, I’m most excited about drafting Goldschmidt. After this year, he’ll be on everyone’s radar. 2013 Projections: 84/29/104/.274/12
20. Adrian Gonzalez – Unlike Te(i)x, Konerko, Howard and other aging 1st basemen, I think A-Gon still has something left to give. Oh, no, Rappin’ Grey! “A-Gon’s old like a reference to Minnie Pearl, coming off a disappointing year… Some things never go out like your preference for jheri curl and calling Montana God’s Country and New Jersey God’s Rear… A-Gon’s still filled with diesel in that tank, no biggie… Maybe he needs Stoli and pineapple juice like Frank the Tank and Miggy…” A-Gon’s line drive rate went up to a career high in 2012 and his fly balls were normal. His HR/FB rate was in the dumper. He should’ve hit 27 homers last year. His walk rate that has been on decline for the last three years hit a new low in 2012 at 6.1%. For a guy that had a walk rate of 17.5% as recently as 2009, that’s hideous. Since he’s only going to be 31 years old in May, I think he can hold his line drive rate and rebound a bit with his walks. The homers will definitely rebound. Remember, we are drafting for 2013, not for the mistakes you made in 2012. Edwin Encarnacion was great last year, but unless you’re driving a DeLorean to your fantasy draft that means absolutely nothing. 2013 Projections: 86/29/112/.292/1
Top twenty lists for every position and a top 400 for 2013 fantasy baseball will be coming, but here’s one name that stands out that I omitted:
Buster Posey – Anyone familiar with my rankings knows that I always put at least one player right after the top 20 that I don’t want any part of. Well, ma nishtana this post? No ma nishtana! This post is the same as past years. I don’t want anything to do with Posey. The last time everyone was crazy about a catcher in the 2nd round was Joe Mauer after he hit 28 homers. You probably have a ton of reasons why Mauer is not the same as Posey. Let me say this, four years ago, you thought Mauer was the King Shizz of Shinola. You asked your girlfriend to wear a Mauer jersey when you were feeling amorous and then you’d tell people you were calling her, “Joe,” like it was a cutesy nickname. You loved Mauer. Exactly the same love you now have for Posey. Do us all a flippin’ favor, don’t draft a guy you’re going to put in your catcher slot in the mother-flippin’ second round. It is the surest recipe for disaster. Let’s go with the assumption that Posey is capable of repeating his MVP season, even if that makes an ass out of u and mption. His year was 78/24/103/.336/1. He barely broke 100 RBIs and didn’t break 80 runs. Aside from the batting average, nothing in his line looks exceptional. Discussion starter: Is there any chance he’s a .336 hitter? I guess. He just did it. He also needed a BABIP thirty points over his career average. If he hit 25 homers and .300 with those counting stats, we’re not even discussing this. Discussion ender. You are basically looking at drafting a guy that could give you the power and counting stats over the course of the season that Jay Bruce could give you in four months. But…BUT Bruce would give you more steals. You draft Posey, and I’ll take Salvador Perez 100 picks later. Yeah, I said it. 2013 Projections: 74/25/97/.309/1
