For those of you old enough to remember a time before Survivor and American Idol, you might recall the era of Kaizen that permeated the economies of the 1980s and 90s. In Japanese, kaizen means something like “continuous improvement,” and it was one of those old pre-capitalist ideas that got co-opted by industrial society. So instead of like, running a bit farther every day or being 10% happier, the concept of kaizen turned into this phantasm of continual product improvement and personal productivity maelstroms. Maybe you’re running faster, but it’s because your job needs you to finish your work and somebody else’s work at the same time. Product sprints. Agility. Synchronicity (and not the album by The Police). But “continual improvement” done in the name of producing things faster, doesn’t necessarily mean that the actual product is any better.

It’s really not a surprise that the fantasy sports world also adopted this kaizen mentality — more products, somehow “improving,” but ultimately making fantasy players work harder. How many people are old enough to remember when a copy of Baseball America and a printer was the complete setup to play fantasy sports? Now we’ve got data providers everywhere. How many accounts do you have with a data provider? I’ve got [thinks for a while] six? I’m still learning about fantasy analysis sites that I’ve never heard of before, and I’ve consumed fantasy content on the regular since Firefly was on actual broadcast TV. And which provider is better? Is it the one that outputs data the quickest? Is it the one that makes you laugh? Is it the one that uses the least amount of preface to their articles?

All this to say: I’ve “improved” my system a bit this week. Is it actually better? Who knows. I worked on it, I’ll tell you that much. I used best practices and data-backed principles learned from years of study. I had a “Hypeonator” that said if a player was “Hype” or “Whack” and then I deleted it. I merely open doors — it’s up to y’all if you take the hype. That said, let me share a bit of the terminology that I’ll be bringing to the fore for the upcoming articles.

Example Table:

Name L30$/G wK/9 wPABIB wL30FIP
Carlos Rodon 43.4 21.26% 1.55% 62.39%

 

Name L30$/G wK/9 wPABIB wL30FIP
Patrick Corbin -45.6 -24.08% -6.55% 14.57%

Name: As names have power, words have power.

L30$/G: This is the $/G over the Last 30 days, as calculated by Rudy over on this side of the Razzball site. This is the actual fantasy value for the player, regardless of how the player should be playing. Remember when I pointed out last week that Tyler Mahle and Alek Manoah had basically the same advanced stats but were 200 spots apart on the Player Rater? This $/G is showing you precisely how useful this player is for your fantasy team. Note: I did not say this value means the player is good. There are plenty of players who are useful for your fantasy team who are not good. In the above example, we see Carlos Rodon is extremely useful for your team with his positive value, and Patrick Corbin is not useful at all for your fantasy team.

wK/9: Weighted K/9, calculated to show how many more or less strikeouts the pitcher is throwing compared to the field. 9 K/9 sounds great, right? Except it’s actually below average for your top pitchers right now. Rodon above has a 21.26% higher K/9 rate than the top 50% of MLB pitchers right now. Meanwhile, Patrick Corbin has a K/9 rate 25% lower than the top 50% of MLB pitchers right now. I calculate this on a total season basis; there is little recency bias here.

wPABIB: PABIB sounds like Mr. Pibb, right? So, BABIP is Batting Average on Balls in Play, and we all know it from the movie Moneyball, right up there with Brad Pitt. Problem is, at least in my world, is that BABIP tells us the batting average on balls that are hit into the field. I’m a bit more interested in how many outs are generated by balls hit in play. This is simply the inverse of BABIP. I do this because the quality of hits are a significant generator of BABIP; it’s not simply “hit it where they ain’t,” but “can’t catch what speeds by you at 110MPH.” I then weight PABIB, taking the top 50% of the field into account, and express the output as a percent. In the above example, Carlos Rodon is 1.55% better at generating outs than other pitchers, and Patrick Corbin is 6.55% worse than the field.  I calculate this over the last 30 days so there is a fair amount of recency bias, but it’s also responsive to things like warmer weather and if MLB changed the balls again.

wL30FIP: This is the weighted Fielding Independent Pitching stat over the last 30 days. FIP isn’t really predictive over this sample, but it gives us a reasonable approximation if a player should be doing better than their usual fantasy stats indicate. For the weighting in this sample size, I only use the top 60 pitchers (a standard 12-team fantasy league deployment of 5 starters per team). In the example, Carlos Rodon’s FIP over the last month has been 62% better than the field. Patrick Corbin’s FIP is 14% better than the field — he should be doing better than we’re seeing. In fact, he’s 14% better than the top 60 pitchers — that’s gotta be worth something down the line, right? Maybe let’s talk about that in the meat of the article, shall we?

News and Notes

Patrick CorbinMy system really likes Patrick Corbin and keeps throwing him into Tier 2, despite the fact that Corbin is basically at the bottom of the Player Rater (indeed, he’s ranked at nearly 1100). What gives? He’s 0-5 with a 6+ ERA. That’s fantasy trash. Thing is, we can’t play fantasy based on what’s already happened. His season-to-date true skill stats are plenty fair: his FIP is 3.38, SIERA is 4.42, and he’s allowed 1 homer on the year over 30 innings. Over the last 20IP, he’s got a 2.37 ERA and, 2.56 FIP — nothing wrong with that. He’s allowing barrels but most of them are going at the ground. For most fantasy managers, you still don’t want to use this particular Corbin (try the Burnes flavor), but there’s going to be a big DFS winner soon who has a $5000 Patrick Corbin that gets the regression coming his way.

Name L30$/G wK/9 wPABIB wL30FIP
Patrick Corbin -45.6 -24.08% -6.55% 14.57%

Jesus Luzardo: [post-submission edit: he’s off to the IL!] How about we do that same “last 20 IP” comparison with Luzardo as we did with Corbin? Over Luzardo’s last 20IP, he’s got a 3.66 ERA, 5.12 FIP, 6 BB/9 and has allowed 4 homers. This is the thing about public perception: people kept asking me why Corbin was so high on my list, but nobody asked me why Luzardo was also high — in fact, chasing that tier 1. Asking isn’t a bad thing; as humans, we’re somewhat predisposed to question certain beliefs and let other beliefs go unquestioned (Hey Siri, define “confirmation bias.”). To start the season, all of us analysts were in awe of Luzardo’s re-invention in Miami, and now I’m starting to wonder if it was a Miami Miracle or just a David Blaine stunt. My system loves Luzardo’s K/9 rate — and we all should love a great K/9 rate. Strikeouts are the biggest predictor of future success for pitchers. Full stop. But pitchers can’t walk 6 batters per nine and allow nearly 2 HR/9 and expect to survive. You know who did that in 2020? Robbie Ray. Hmm…maybe there is room for resurrection. There’s room for a Luzardo re-awakening, but don’t be surprised if he turns into a pumpkin quickly.

Name L30$/G wK/9 wPABIB wL30FIP
Jesus Luzardo -15.7 13.21% 6.45% -24.91%

Reid DetmersNo, hitter! Detmers came this close to a perfect game. Still, it was, as the record books go, pretty ugly from a boxscore standpoint. 9IP, 2K, 25 batted ball events. In baseball, you’re either safe or out. One of two choices, right? Imagine flipping a coin 25 times and each time it comes up heads. Out! Now do that 25 times in a row, except every time you flip the coin, your friend has to catch it and still land heads. No-hitters tend to be filled with strikeouts because it’s so difficult for zero batted balls to end up as a hit. FanGraphs reports that Detmers’ no-no featured the fewest strikeouts in a no-hitter since 2011. On the season, Detmers’ K rate is waaaaaaaay (manage that, spell check!) down compared to the field, and his FIP — even after the no-no — stands at 4.07. Elephant-minded readers recall that Alec Mills and his 86 MPH fastball threw a no-hitter in 2020, and Detmers’ no-no has that kind of feel to it. Even Mills managed to K 5 batters, though. Detmers is an OK try for 12-team leagues, but his fantasy value is mostly tied to his prospect status. He’s a top 50 prospect and only 22 years old, so the best is yet to come — it just likely won’t come in 2022.

Name L30$/G wK/9 wPABIB wL30FIP
Reid Detmers 1.7 -48.15% 13.12% 15.55%

Paul BlackburnThe top of my Confidence ranking is filled with the top strikeout artists in the league. After Pablo Lopez, we see the “median” pitchers for K-rate. And then comes Paul Blackburn, who has a precipitous lack of strikeouts but is somehow toward the top of the rankings. Why? His impressive ability to limit batted ball damage and walks. All of his true skill stats are below 3.0 runs allowed, he’s got 4 wins and 37 IP, and a WHIP below 1.00 thanks to that. A lot of fantasy-relevant pitchers have done this kind of performance for a year and had great success — Marco Gonzales, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Zack Greinke have all had top 20 fantasy years with this kind of profile (and all have finished in the top 10 SP, with Grienke doing it multiple times). Blackburn’s 7.0 K/9 won’t matter much if he approaches 200 IP, because his total strikeouts will be equivalent to a 9+ K/9 pitcher who throws less IP. Keep starting.

Name L30$/G wK/9 wPABIB wL30FIP
Paul Blackburn 15.6 -38.18% 4.12% 34.11%

Luis CastilloSmall sample size (9IP) but he’s looking rough so far. Don’t start until he figures things out. Last year, it took him until the All-Star break to feel comfortable, and thereafter he was brilliant for fantasy. I’m not saying drop, but definitely don’t trot him out there every 5 days right now.

Glenn OttoOtto had a nice showing last year but is approaching 20IP with a 6+ FIP this year. He’s walking nearly as many batters as he’s K-ing, so let him sit even in deep leagues.

Mike ClevingerGonna be in the “you do you” category for a while. He’s failed to top 5 IP in each of his starts (expected), has a BB/9 above 5 (unexpected), and a 5/4 ERA/FIP (what is this, Dave Brubeck?). You figure out if you want to start him or sit him — I didn’t draft him anywhere in the first place.

Michael LorenzenHe’s been pretty blah so far after a hot season opener. I’m not a big strength of schedule guy, but Lorenzen’s good starts recently came against the injury-decimated White Sox and the Athletics (who are just decimated regardless of injuries). He’s a fine DFS play for those “on” days but don’t come yelling at me if you start him in a daily league and he has an “off” day.

Hunter GreeneMaking me work overtime, eh? This blurb’s coming in well after I submitted the rest, so I suppose I shoulda made more no-hitter jokes. Wait — the joke is that Greene threw a no-hitter and lost! His strike ratio was way off and he allowed 5 walks. Dude was up near 120 pitches, which we all know is certain arm death in the current world of pitchers. Whateva. Totally Reds thing to do to lose to the [checks notes] Pirates while no-hitting them. Meanwhile, JKJ’s gonna update you on David Bednar’s value as an RP after he notches a [checks notes] save for his no-hit team. What is this — the darkest Moneyball timeline where every player is Youk? Before you get really scared, the box below was generated based on data up through Saturday and does not include Greene’s Sunday gem. So, when DFS players say that they need contrarian pitchers to win the big cash out — this is what they mean:

Name L30$/G wK/9 wPABIB wL30FIP
Hunter Greene -75.5 8.19% -1.78% -113.54%

The Rankings

A horizontal, visual interpretation of the top pitchers, featuring: Shane! Thanks, Google Sheets, real helpful there. It’s McClanahan, bee-tee-dubya.

Always do a sanity check. I’m providing free data that quite literally has a better or higher correlation to fantasy efficacy than many sites that charge an arm and a leg and don’t answer your questions. That said, I’m human and make mistakes; I also submit the article on Sunday so there’s a bit of lag. The source of this data is none other than Razzball itself. So, if you are winning money or having a great time reading the articles, please consider a subscription to the site or drop me a line in the comments and let me know I’m not wasting my life away for naught.

Here’s how to use the list:

  • Tier: 1=best, 2=everybody else for 12 team consideration, 3=deep league/dynasty/best ball/tournaments/DFS.
  • Name: Player name
  • Confidence: The overall score my system outputs. The higher the score, the more confident I am in using the player in the near term. As always, we’re in small sample size territory, so this ranking will get better as the season goes on.
  • Own%: This is the rostership % of the player in Razzball Commenter Leagues, run on Fantrax. This % may vary depending on site and format for readers.
  • L30$/G: This is how valuable the player has been over the past month. Players with high confidence who have low or negative $/G are “buy low” candidates.  Spot starters/Roleless Robs will have a lower $/G because they play in more games.
Tier Name Confidence Own% L30$/G
1 Carlos Rodon 4.268 100 46.3
1 Shohei Ohtani 4.065 100 24.3
1 Dylan Cease 4.045 100 0.8
1 Shane McClanahan 3.985 100 28.7
1 Michael King 3.961 5.3
1 Max Scherzer 3.776 100 27.4
1 Nestor Cortes 3.728 100 16.5
1 Corbin Burnes 3.718 100 35.2
1 Garrett Whitlock 3.622 100 -13.6
1 Eric Lauer 3.517 100 34.4
1 Kevin Gausman 3.505 100 32.5
1 Freddy Peralta 3.498 100 -4.6
1 Gerrit Cole 3.417 100 22.4
1 Jesus Luzardo 3.414 100 -15.1
1 Lucas Giolito 3.199 100 8.7
1 Brandon Woodruff 3.153 100 1.7
1 Pablo Lopez 3.065 100 45.3
1 Joe Musgrove 3.053 100 40.2
1 Clayton Kershaw 3.022 100 24.6
1 Kyle Wright 2.981 100 -6.8
1 Max Fried 2.959 100 40.6
1 Sean Manaea 2.955 100 -28.7
1 Zac Gallen 2.948 100 33.5
1 Tarik Skubal 2.941 100 22
1 Aaron Nola 2.928 100 -4.2
1 Chris Paddack 2.892 7 -14.3
1 Tylor Megill 2.867 100 -33.8
1 Triston McKenzie 2.848 100 9.6
2 Carlos Carrasco 2.794 100 7.6
2 A.J. Minter 2.773 2 -1.8
2 Paul Blackburn 2.771 100 15.6
2 Merrill Kelly 2.755 100 14.7
2 Tyler Mahle 2.747 98 -49
2 Zack Wheeler 2.747 100 -30.6
2 Cristian Javier 2.745 100 -11.4
2 Kenley Jansen 2.743 100 10.5
2 Patrick Corbin 2.740 11 -46.5
2 Logan Gilbert 2.739 100 18
2 Chris Bassitt 2.733 100 10.6
2 Dane Dunning 2.731 27 -18.8
2 Frankie Montas 2.711 100 -5.9
2 Michael Kopech 2.705 100 6.9
2 MacKenzie Gore 2.702 100 1
2 Justin Verlander 2.674 100 60.4
2 Martin Perez 2.667 32 13.1
2 Patrick Sandoval 2.651 100 -6
2 Ryan Helsley 2.644 100 8.9
2 Alek Manoah 2.630 100 26.1
2 Luis Garcia 2.628 100 19.9
2 Luis Garcia 2.628 100 19.9
2 Drew Rasmussen 2.624 100 12.8
2 Victor Arano 2.603 -6
2 Spencer Strider 2.594 50 -4
2 Justin Wilson 2.586 -5.9
2 Sam Hentges 2.562 -0.7
2 Walker Buehler 2.553 100 -4.2
2 Joe Ryan 2.549 100 22.5
2 Wil Crowe 2.524 14 -4.4
2 Miles Mikolas 2.522 100 32.9
2 Keegan Akin 2.514 -13.2
2 Logan Webb 2.514 100 -25.2
2 Steven Matz 2.502 32 -18
2 Shane Bieber 2.502 100 -31.9
2 Yu Darvish 2.498 100 9.8
2 Jason Adam 2.496 -1.4
2 Zach Eflin 2.496 9 -47.1
2 Tyler Anderson 2.495 20 -9.5
2 Tanner Houck 2.492 45 -22.2
2 Yency Almonte 2.491 12.9
2 Brock Burke 2.485 18 4.2
2 Seranthony Dominguez 2.485 2 -2.6
2 Bruce Zimmermann 2.477 -0.8
2 Jovani Moran 2.472 4.9
2 Chad Kuhl 2.472 39 13.2
2 Scott Effross 2.472 -4.1
2 Chasen Shreve 2.457 5 0.4
2 Robbie Ray 2.455 100 -3.4
2 Luis Severino 2.452 100 -12.6
2 Evan Phillips 2.447 -1.7
2 Jameson Taillon 2.444 98 -6.5
2 Jimmy Herget 2.433 2 -3
2 Framber Valdez 2.420 100 -28.2
2 Bryse Wilson 2.419 -46.1
2 David Bednar 2.418 100 3.8
2 Ross Stripling 2.417 -30.7
2 Alex Cobb 2.413 98 -24.8
2 Austin Gomber 2.409 11 -16.8
2 Jordan Montgomery 2.409 100 -13.8
2 Corey Kluber 2.407 57 -35.6
2 Eduardo Rodriguez 2.407 100 -7
2 Mauricio Llovera 2.403 -3.6
2 Will Vest 2.398 9 1.4
2 Trevor Stephan 2.390 5 0.7
2 Nick Pivetta 2.390 7 -35
2 Alex Vesia 2.387 -5.1
2 Brooks Raley 2.383 73 -3.8
2 Adam Wainwright 2.383 100 -22.3
2 JT Brubaker 2.382 5 -34.2
2 Erik Swanson 2.374 2 -2.1
2 Trevor Gott 2.371 -3.5
2 Andrew Chafin 2.368 -5.7
2 Parker Mushinski 2.363 -7.8
2 Adrian Houser 2.355 16 -9.1
2 Kyle Freeland 2.348 -43.8
2 German Marquez 2.341 64 -71.4
2 Jeffrey Springs 2.340 -2.7
2 Kyle Gibson 2.340 82 -37.4
2 Trevor Rogers 2.339 100 -27
2 Josh Hader 2.337 100 7.9
2 Zack Greinke 2.318 36 -37.5
2 Tommy Nance 2.314 4.9
2 Penn Murfee 2.314 1
2 Kyle Nelson 2.314 -1.5
2 Andrew Heaney 2.309 86 90.7
2 Mitch Keller 2.306 7 -57.9
2 JT Chargois 2.304
2 Rich Hill 2.302 5 -6.4
2 Matt Strahm 2.299 -2.6
2 John Brebbia 2.297 -4.9
2 Collin McHugh 2.296 2 -10.6
2 Nathan Eovaldi 2.295 100 -11.1
2 Alex Wood 2.292 100 -6
2 Humberto Castellanos 2.291 -14.2
2 Dylan Bundy 2.288 25 -44.6
2 Taylor Hearn 2.283 -31.5
2 Daulton Jefferies 2.282 5 -51.5
2 Alex Lange 2.272 -1.6
2 Jake Walsh 2.265 2.8
2 Sam Selman 2.265 12.6
2 Noah Syndergaard 2.265 100 1.9
2 Bryan Baker 2.264 2 -5.3
2 Adam Ottavino 2.257 -4.8
2 Zach Davies 2.256 -12.3
2 Julian Merryweather 2.252 -10.6
2 Marcus Stroman 2.241 84 -36.5
2 Reid Detmers 2.240 23 1.7
2 Charlie Morton 2.238 100 -46.3
2 Josh Winder 2.235 52 10.3
2 Tanner Rainey 2.233 98 -5.9
2 Drew Smith 2.226 -3.2
2 Edwin Diaz 2.219 100 5.4
2 Hector Neris 2.215 18 -1.8
2 Clay Holmes 2.214 93 4.5
2 Tony Gonsolin 2.201 100 23.9
2 Taylor Rogers 2.200 100 5.5
2 Jose Quintana 2.194 14 -12.1
2 Zach Jackson 2.184 -6.1
2 Cole Sands 2.181 -8
2 Konnor Pilkington 2.178 -0.8
2 Daniel Norris 2.176 -4.9
2 Sandy Alcantara 2.175 100 -1.7
2 Cody Stashak 2.172 1.9
2 Rafael Montero 2.167 73 -0.7
2 Justin Steele 2.166 -68.8
2 Enyel De Los Santos 2.163 -6.9
2 Eli Morgan 2.163 -24.6
2 Bryan Abreu 2.161 -2.3
2 Camilo Doval 2.161 100 1
2 Pierce Johnson 2.160 2 -12.2
2 A.J. Puk 2.158 9 2.7
2 Sean Doolittle 2.152 -3.3
2 Anthony Bass 2.152 9 -0.2
2 James Norwood 2.150 -7.5
2 Kendall Graveman 2.145 25 -5.2
2 Devin Williams 2.145 55 -2.2
2 Brad Boxberger 2.141 -4.3
2 Joely Rodriguez 2.132 -3.4
2 Jordan Hicks 2.128 20 -32.1
2 Daniel Bard 2.126 100 1
2 Daniel Hudson 2.118 5 -6.6
2 David Robertson 2.113 100 4.1
2 Caleb Thielbar 2.108 2 -6.5
2 Julio Urias 2.106 100 20.7
2 Joan Adon 2.103 -59.5
2 Lucas Luetge 2.096 -9.8
2 Raisel Iglesias 2.092 100 -1.8
2 Jake Odorizzi 2.091 18 -1.8
2 Joel Kuhnel 2.091 -6.5
2 Seth Martinez 2.090 1.8
2 Tyler Wells 2.085 14 -7.8
2 Jhoan Duran 2.083 100 -1.3
2 Corey Knebel 2.081 100 -2.4
2 Erick Fedde 2.080 -29.9
2 Josh Staumont 2.079 30 -4.1
2 Antonio Senzatela 2.077 -55.5
2 Phillips Valdez 2.077 -10.1
2 Brad Keller 2.076 34 -15.6
2 Daniel Lynch 2.074 9 8
2 Aaron Loup 2.071 -3.8
2 Aaron Civale 2.067 27 -78.7
2 Brett Martin 2.059 -7
2 Chris Stratton 2.053 5 -9.3
2 Rowan Wick 2.049 57 1
2 Josiah Gray 2.049 82 -8.1
2 Corbin Martin 2.042 -15.3
2 J.P. Feyereisen 2.038 2 9.9
2 Aaron Ashby 2.033 48 -46.7
2 Cal Quantrill 2.030 34 -42.2
2 Jordan Lyles 2.029 -24.1
2 Matt Foster 2.028 -6.6
2 Liam Hendriks 2.027 100 0.9
2 Dany Jimenez 2.026 100 4.2
2 Luis Cessa 2.025 -5.3
2 Felix Bautista 2.025 -2.7
2 Dillon Tate 2.022 7 -3.2
2 Kyle Hendricks 2.015 80 -8.3
2 Paul Sewald 2.013 64 2.8
2 Jared Solomon 2.010 -2.5
2 Jesse Chavez 2.008 -5.8
2 Steven Okert 2.007 -4.2
2 Michael Wacha 2.006 59 33.9
3 Keegan Thompson 1.997 5 4.2
3 Jose Urquidy 1.996 -39.3
3 Giovanny Gallegos 1.990 100 -4.2
3 Carlos Hernandez 1.989 5 -102.9
3 Tim Mayza 1.987 -2.4
3 Rony Garcia 1.973 -2.3
3 Luis Gil 1.971 -73.8
3 Elieser Hernandez 1.970 14 -35.6
3 Jose Álvarez 1.970 -5.6
3 Jeff Hoffman 1.953 -3.4
3 Chris Martin 1.947 -8.5
3 Michael Lorenzen 1.941 59 -14.6
3 Adonis Medina 1.939 22
3 Sergio Romo 1.937 -1
3 Andrew Bellatti 1.934 -4.4
3 Emmanuel Clase 1.932 100 2.8
3 Tanner Scott 1.931 -6.4
3 Yusei Kikuchi 1.929 23 -21.8
3 Chad Green 1.929 14 -5
3 Jhon Romero 1.912 -1.3
3 Alexis Diaz 1.910 2 -1
3 Jorge Lopez 1.909 100 7.5
3 Kyle Barraclough 1.908 -2.6
3 Dusten Knight 1.907
3 Chris Flexen 1.904 14 -24.6
3 Jalen Beeks 1.903 5 1.6
3 Tyler Rogers 1.902 -5.2
3 Andres Munoz 1.900 48 -6
3 Dillon Peters 1.897 2 4
3 Dallas Keuchel 1.884 -71.6
3 Anderson Severino 1.881 -10.9
3 Nick Martinez 1.881 5 -29.7
3 Roansy Contreras 1.879 7 28.7
3 Hoby Milner 1.877 -6.3
3 Zach Thompson 1.874 -36.7
3 Austin Voth 1.873 -3
3 Jose Alvarado 1.870 -11.4
3 Ross Detwiler 1.865 -1.3
3 Jordan Romano 1.864 100 -0.2
3 Tyler Kinley 1.854 -4.5
3 Joe Jimenez 1.852 -6
3 Jhoulys Chacin 1.850 -12.3
3 Jose Berrios 1.845 100 -29.9
3 Seth Lugo 1.844 2 -6.2
3 George Kirby 1.836 100 6.8
3 Jackson Stephens 1.831 -2.7
3 Darren O’Day 1.830 -5.1
3 Hunter Harvey 1.827 -4.7
3 Vince Velasquez 1.826 -39.4
3 Zach Plesac 1.819 36 -53.1
3 Craig Kimbrel 1.818 100 0.7
3 Joe Mantiply 1.815 2 -2.5
3 Ty Blach 1.812 -8.9
3 Nabil Crismatt 1.811 -1
3 Drew Smyly 1.807 5 -45
3 Jose Ruiz 1.807 -7.1
3 Griffin Jax 1.802 7 3.8
3 Michael Rucker 1.801 -11.4
3 Cody Poteet 1.799 0
3 Joel Payamps 1.792 -2.3
3 Robert Gsellman 1.791 -16.4
3 Anthony Kay 1.786
3 Kyle Bradish 1.785 9 -11
3 Scott Barlow 1.777 100 1.3
3 Jakob Junis 1.776 16 7.5
3 John Schreiber 1.775 7 1.3
3 Duane Underwood Jr. 1.775 -17.8
3 Sam Moll 1.772 -4.9
3 Blake Treinen 1.769 18 24.5
3 Vladimir Gutierrez 1.764 -96.1
3 Jon Gray 1.760 36 -39.2
3 Ian Anderson 1.756 100 -1.5
3 Carl Edwards Jr. 1.755 -11.3
3 Mitch White 1.753 -11.4
3 Trevor Williams 1.748 -16.1
3 Jackson Kowar 1.742
3 Jake Cousins 1.740 -6.5
3 Cole Irvin 1.740 14 6.4
3 Tyler Thornburg 1.739 -13.8
3 Steve Cishek 1.736 -10.3
3 Amir Garrett 1.735 -3.9
3 Steven Wilson 1.731 -3.6
3 Zach Pop 1.728 -26.5
3 Spenser Watkins 1.728 -58.2
3 Justin Grimm 1.727 -9.7
3 Reynaldo Lopez 1.722 2 0.4
3 Kodi Whitley 1.720 -6.1
3 Nick Lodolo 1.715 52 6.8
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Jeffe
Jeffe
1 month ago

I know we haven’t seen Snell yet, but where do you anticipate him falling on your tiers? Do you prefer him, Blackburn or P Sandoval? Thanks for this list and breakdown. It’s great to read and study.

Jeffe
Jeffe
Reply to  everywhereblair
1 month ago

Thank you! I share similar sentiments as you do on Snell. Keep up the great work!

Pcolaprime
Pcolaprime
1 month ago

Blair,

What’s the outlook on Syndergaard ROS? Thanks brother!

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hi Blair,

I so appreciate all your help, honesty and information.

1. Would you start the Padres Mike Clevinger at Philadelphia?

2. Would you start AZ’s Merrill Kelly at LAD?

3. Following your advice, I was going to start Cards Mikolas at the Mets and Tyler Anderson of LA at home against AZ. Do you still agree?

Thanks so much!!

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
Reply to  everywhereblair
1 month ago

Thanks so very much!!!

TurnandCoughlin
TurnandCoughlin
1 month ago

I know that you have Freddy Peralta ranked much higher than Alek Manoah so maybe a silly question but in a dynasty format, which would you prefer.
Thanks

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hi Blair,

Sorry to bother you but my question (Martin Rostoker) was missed.

Thank you as always for your assistance!

Martin

Norman Ginsberg
Norman Ginsberg
1 month ago

1) My weekly question. How much are you factoring innings in your rating?

2) I’m embarased to mention this, but I use your list to identify cheap, effective pitchers. But occasionally, I see guys that I don’t know.
Would it be possible to provide a 3 character (say) team reference so I can
more easily pair them when I see a team using an opener.

Norman Ginsberg
Norman Ginsberg
Reply to  everywhereblair
1 month ago

I’m still confused. John Shreiber (RedSox) is rated (Tier 3) with 7 (very effective) innings. Not consistent with above response.

Norman Ginsberg
Norman Ginsberg
Reply to  everywhereblair
1 month ago

Thanks for giving me so much attention. I really appreciate your effort and how you support my need to find effective pitchers w/o clear roles (e.g., King after 2 weeks).

I’m now trying to figure out who gets on your list. I’m not really interested in Shreiber (who has been good in his limited MLB activation time), but I want to understand why he is on your list despite only 7 innings! I’m wondering if you’re extrapolating performance to the full (to date) team games.

And BTW, I would never suggest expanding your player pool. It is already overwhelming.

Norman Ginsberg
Norman Ginsberg
Reply to  everywhereblair
1 month ago

Thanks for spending so much time with me each week. I realize that performance predictions are ridiculously difficult until you have lots of data — but obviously meaningless if you wait until late August for confident results.

What I’m trying to understand is why some pitchers with very few innings (e.g., Shreiber) are on this list. He’s been up only briefly (perhaps less than 25% of team’s games), so I’m wondering if you may somehow be extrapolating his innings).

Becausej of you, I was able to find King, Strider, Burkes, and Keegan Thompson (I exchange one when he pitches). Now that Strider and Keegan have graduated to SP, looking for another.

steve stevenson
steve stevenson
1 month ago

Dammit Blair! You’re gonna talk me into getting Corbin back onto my NL-only roster. I had him as a cheap keeper and endured waaay too much of his suckage the last couple years due to move restrictions and hope. I’m finally blissfully out in 2022 only to have 3 Ps go on the IL in the same week, and now I’m HOPING I bid enough to land Corbin and Quintana. WHO’S LAUGHING NOW, JOKER!?

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
1 month ago

Hi Blair

Your pitching insight is always appreciated. I am very grateful for you providing the details on your reason.

1. I was going to start Mikolas and Freddy Peralta. Do you agree?

2.Would your start Tyler Anderson of the Dodgers at home against AZ and on the road at Washington?

3. Is it worth picking up Martin Perez ? If you agree, who would you drop from the following:
Cristian Javier
Paul Blackburn
Tyler Anderson
Mike Clevinger
Dane Dunning
Kyle Bradish

4.Would you pick up Chase Silseth? If yes, who would you waive from the following list.

THANKS so much!

Martin

martinrostoker
martinrostoker
Reply to  everywhereblair
1 month ago

Thanks so very much. I do appreciate these details and your help!!!

Five-on-One
Five-on-One
1 month ago

No Sonny Gray anywhere to be found? He can’t be that bad, can he?

prognation
prognation
Reply to  everywhereblair
1 month ago

Thoughts on Ranger “Danger” Suarez? compared to the likes of Detmers, B. Keller, Ian “Tull” Anderson?

Dude
Dude
1 month ago

You dropping Alex Wood for Martin Perez in a QS league?

Dude
Dude
Reply to  Dude
1 month ago

Or Corbin

David
David
1 month ago

Tier 2 needs yet another Luis Garcia!