Astros OF Cam Smith has officially made the opening day roster after a slow speculative leak broke that news across a couple days. Wasn’t rocket surgery. Smith is making the Houston brass look pretty good given the context, and he’s earned it on the field. Fun story to follow. I suppose there’s a chance he can slump his way back to the minors, but I’m betting against that, envisioning something like .265 with 25-ish home runs.
Cubs RHP Ben Brown will be the team’s fifth starter while Javier Assad recovers from an oblique injury. If he’s anywhere close to the level he pitched at last year (3.58 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) he’ll hold a spot as long as he’s healthy. Wrigley is a nice place to pitch most days, and the Cubs should be good on both sides of the ball this season.
There’s no easy remedy for the melancholy of seeing Rockies OF Zac Veen get sent back to the infinite sadness of Colorado’s minor league system. He might just as easily be the starting left fielder by June. Cheers to Nick Martini and all that, but he’s not exactly a long term option at 34 years old. Sean Bouchard has a 157 wRC+ this spring. Jordan Beck has a 93 wRC+ with a 34.7 percent strikeout rate. Hunter Goodman is on another planet (239 wRC+). They’ve already played Tyler Freeman in the outfield with Kyle Farmer at second base, so that’s on the table, too. I’ve seen people penciling Martini into a pile of at bats, but the Rockies have a lot of options, is all I’m trying to say.
Blue Jays OF Alan Roden (aka ‘The Thinker’ around these parts) made the team on Sunday, and while the story coming out of Toronto says Myles Straw will be the center fielder until Dalton Varsho returns, I’m betting on the Blue Jays to find room for Roden’s bat more often than not, and he’s been playing a little center field in spring training.
Athletics SS Max Muncy will make the team and presumably play just about every day as the second or third baseman. I like his chances to hit. Here’s what I said in the Athletics top ten:
“It’s not the loudest tool box you’ve ever heard clattering around the worksite that is wherever this team will be playing in four years, but Muncy might be able to get the job done at the keystone. He’s been playing against older players since he entered the league out of high school, so there’s probably a little more than meets the eye in his 6’0” 180 lb frame. In 50 Triple-A games this year, he slashed .277/.374/.491 with eight home runs and four stolen bases.”
I thought the Pirates might consider RHP Carmen Mlodzinski for the closer role given his elite ability to avoid the barrel (99th percentile), but they’ve put him in the rotation instead, and I think he’ll be pretty good there. He got off to a rough start last year but posted 2.20 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 45 innings from May 31 through season’s end. That’s in relief of course, and his stuff might back up a bit as he gets stretched out, but I’m intrigued.
Mets 2B Brett Baty closes out the spring with a slash line of .353/.441/.745 with four home runs and more walks (8) than strikeouts (6). Jeff McNeil’s injury offers a convenient way to get Baty into the lineup and find out if the gains will hold in the regular season.
Thanks for reading!
Hi Itch, I think you may have missed my question. Thank you
Circled back. Just a lot to it.
Thanks Itch, appreciate you.
Itch! Love your stuff man. Hey I’m in a 12TM AL ONLY Dynasty where we get to keep players up to 6 years. Each year we have a minor league draft where we get to draft up to 3 players currently in the minors. You get to hold on to players from years prior as well if they’re currently in the minors.
This year I’m going into the draft with Xavier Isaac and Colson Montgomery as my “minor keepers”. With the recent news of Evan Carter getting sent to the Minors I would now have to keep him in my last spot.
The year the players is called up to the majors, starts their “clock” so Colson and Xavier are 2025 players, where Evan Carter is a 2023.
Question is: Where would you rank Evan Carter in the grand scheme of things from a minor league prospect standpoint?
According to your rankings, here’s the best AL only options available (I would have the 11th pick of these guys).
If i keep Isaac, Montgomery and Carter, I don’t get a pick this year.
What would you do? Drop Carter? I don’t really want to drop Colson (because he’s so close to the majors) and seems like Xavier is my highest ranked guy so far…
Tough call. Might put Carter after all these guys. Certainly prefer to roll the dice and see if McGonigle falls to you.
Hey Itch, I had made my prospect keeper decisions with some guidance from you, but now I’m second guessing it. I had originally thought I’d drop Kjerstead in order to keep both of Lazaro Montes and Carson WiIliams, but given that we have more bites at the prospect apple mid-year, I’m thinking I may keep Kjerstead afterall since he may actually help this year.
So which prospect do you like better between Williams and Montes, and when do you think either will be up and making a contribution in MLB?
Or am I crazy for thinking Kjerstead will help in a meaningful way this year?
I like Montes of these three.
Hi Itch- What do you think Alex Freeland gets extended MLB time this season. The Dodgers always seem to have a lot of top minor leaguers, but their MLB roster is so stacked that it seems like it is hard for a prospect to carve out regular playing time on their MLB roster and often times probably needs a trade to get MLB playing time. Maybe they make room for a guy like De Paula or Hope eventually if they are really special. Pitchers are different than position players since they seem to always be having injuries. Thanks have a great day.
Always comes down to injuries for Dodgers guys, like you suggest here.
They will need a new wave sometime, but it’s probably a couple years off.
Hi Itch. Curious what you think the chances are that some of the younger, high upside prospects like Zyhir Hope, Jesus Made could debut by 2026. I am in a league where minor league players contracts start running when they are first drafted by their roto team and we can only keep 3 from season to season so the only way to really hold onto any guys 2-3 years away is to end up extending them in a couple seasons, but once you extend them the salary goes up and they have to come up right away and play very well to have much value plus they also eat up one of my team’s 3 spots while waiting so unless a guy makes a quick jump like a Ronald Acuna, Jackson Chourio it is not worth it. Sees like Hope would likely be closer than Made. Thanks
I have Made way over Hope, fwiw.
And now the Rockies have another option… Moniak
It’s a money laundering operation
Pulling for Baty as I need a 2B…
Hoping for the best, unprepared for the worst.
Hahaha!
I have Jordan Lawlar in an NL Only MI spot. Took a pretty similar approach.
I only want to get sedated after watching BaFoone manage.
: )
Could be a long year
Do you like Muncy better than Kyren Paris ?
I think I prefer Paris there, but it’s more a toss-up than anything
Itch! Can you give me some Starter recommendations in the minors for sneaky stashes that could be helpful this summer? Thanks brother.
Andrew Morris with Minnesota
Jarlin Susana with Washington
Yordanny Monegro with Boston
Juan Valera, Boston
Perfect thanks!
Nice article. I can’t believe Colorado sent Veen down
Thanks! They’ve got their own playbook, that’s for sure.
Jacob Wilson or Max Muncy just this season?
Wilson
Great read as always, Itch, thanks. Really value your insight, so please gaze into your crystal ball and give me 3 hitters and 3 pitchers below AAA that you feel reasonably confident could be stars. Thanks
Really looking for guys not on everyone’s radar. Thanks Itch
Thanks, David!
This is kind of its own article, which I’ll try to build from this question
Jesus Made and Sebastian Walcott are my favorite bets among bats
I like Welbyn Francisca
Noah Schultz, Chase Burns, Juan Valera and Jedixson Paez as pitchers come to mind pretty quick. Yordanny Monegro too.
Franklin Arias pops, too.
I think these types will bubble up more accurately this year than you can find picking over what’s left over.
Hey Itch,
First, just want to say thanks for all you do. Reading through all your articles and listening to you on the podcast recently has been really enlightening.
I’ve taken over two Ottoneu teams this year, one of which is a full rebuild.
I have Corbin Carroll ($42) which I’ve been dangling for trade offers.
Would you take a package of Walker Jenkins ($6), Max Clark ($3), Basallo ($6) and Jesus Made ($1) for him? Or is Carroll, even at that price, a building block you would just hold onto?
I’ve also been offered De Vries and Painter (plus maybe Santander) for him, if you think that’s more appealing.
Thanks again.
Oh, one more I forgot. Would you trade Machado straight up for Cam Smith? Same keeper/dynasty team as above.
Hey Pope,
Thanks!
That’s a pretty nice haul for Carroll in that setting. I think I’d do that first one.
I wouldn’t trade Machado for Cam.
Good deal, appreciate your insight Itch
Hey Itch,
If I could circle back on this one, my league mate backed out of the above deal. He doesn’t want to give up Basallo and Made.
He’s now offered PCA ($5), Jenkins ($6), Clark ($3), Thomas Harrington ($4), Chandler Simpson ($3) for my Carroll ($42) and Machado ($27).
What do you think now? Simpson could potentially be swapped for Manzardo ($5), De Paula ($2) or DDLS ($2) if you like any of them better for this deal.
Sounds like this deal isn’t gonna happen
Not a good enough return for Carroll and Machado?
If Baty can hit and Nimmo can stay healthy it will be another happy season in Fushing.
Yeah they look good on offense