Points Leagues – Top 150 Pitchers Rest Of Season

Last week, I dropped my top 150 hitters for the rest of the season.  By all accounts, it went over pretty well.  Together, we saw a number of players come in ranked higher than our preferences, and some were ranked lower than our eyeballs tell us.  Formulas and predictions are rarely perfect, but it does give us a good set of data to discuss.  You all came with some great thoughts, and it was fun to compare notes.

This week is dedicated to pitchers.  I went back into the kitchen to mix up a new blend to consider both starters and relievers together.  The goal is to normalize them in a way that is both insightful and useful.  I realize many of us play in season-long leagues that don’t have natural break points, but even still, it’s good to take small bites from the apple.  For pitchers, I’m ranking them in anticipated “Points per Week” to allow me to stratify them in a meaningful way.  I’d prefer “Points per IP” but that artificially isolates SPs and RPs, so I decided to pass.

Once again, my main ingredients are player statistics generated through Sunday and our very own Razzball projections.  Both are available on the Razzball site at the hyperlinks provided.

Because it’s so important to everything we do here in Points leagues, don’t forget the scoring.  I’m still using the NFBC RazzSlam scoring as illustrated below.  Be sure to adjust or compensate anything you read here to be in line with your own formats.

Now that we’ve got the basics laid out, let’s get right to the numbers:

So, how does this look?  I’ll get to my critique in a minute.  Be sure to tell me your thoughts below.  You know I like the analytics and looking into numbers but to tell the truth, I enjoy our interactions in the comments below even more.  Let’s hear it.

How’d You Rank So High?

Here are some pitchers I feel come in too high in the rankings.

• Josh Hader (Astros) – This isn’t specifically a concern about Josh Hader, rather a cautionary minute about RPs in general.  I love targeting RPs, not just closers, in Points league because they tend to provide a nice base of points each week to counter the occasional blowup we RARELY see from SPs.  However, you really need to evaluate and adjust this strategy to your league scoring to understand the full effect.  There will be some of you that can benefit greatly from using RPs and others who it will hurt.  As long as you know which camp you belong, the more likely you’ll have fewer mistakes.  That is the name of the game here!
• Carlos Rodon (Yankees) – Let’s be fair and admit Carlos Rodon (#13) has been VERY good so far.  Let’s also be fair and admit he hasn’t always been consistently this good for long stretches.  So, to think that he’ll just continue at this pace is not realistic.  Case in point, his fastball is down a touch, his Swing K% is down a touch, and his HR/FB% is up a touch.  So why has he been so good?  The main thing I see is his GB% and GB/FB rate is amongst his career best.  Once those GBs turn into FBs, along with the summer weather, we’ll be longing for the good ol’ days of April.
• Bailey Ober (Twins) – Ober ranks at #29 rest of season despite career lows in K/9, Swing K%, and fastball speed.  He’s also seeing career highs in categories like LD% and LOB%.  The tea leaves are talking here.
• Luis Castillo (Mariners) – Similarly, Castillo comes in at #31 despite a career low in the same three categories (K/9, Swing K%, and fastball speed).  Uh oh!
• Yusei Kikuchi (Angels) – After 8 starts and 42.1 IP, Kikuchi (#50) is pitching to a career-best 3.83 ERA.  That’s 0.70 below his career number.  I really don’t see anything in his analytics that suggests he’ll keep up this level of production.

Why You Ranked So Low?

Here are some pitchers I feel may be on the rise.

• Sandy Alcantara (Marlins) – Clearly the results haven’t been there yet for Alcantara (#94) but the fastball is still north of 97 mph, and he’s spinning the ball at almost 2300 rpms.  Every contending club must be calling the Marlins in hopes of securing his services, and you should be too.  The mess we’ve seen so far may be solved simply with a change of scenery.  Let him out of jail!
• Clarke Schmidt (Yankees) – Clarke Schmidt coming in at #98 feels low to me.  He’s only 20.2 IPs into his season and is clearly not dialed in yet, as depicted by his 11% BB%.  However, his Fastball speed is solid and now over 12.2 Swinging K%.  Time will tell, but it feels like better days are on the horizon.
• Brandon Woodruff (Brewers) – Brandon Woodruff (#117) leads the list of SPs due to make their ’25 debut here soon.  Woodruff is well into his rehab program and is built up to 80+ pitches as he looks to make the move back to the Brewers  this weekend.  Let’s not forget, the last time we saw Woodruff he was tossing the pill in line with some of his career best.  He’s worth a shot.
• Walker Buehler (Red Sox) – It’s been a minute since Walker Buehler (#144) has been an elite SP.  Will he ever get back to it?  Maybe not, but there are some signs of better days, such as a 20%+ K% and 45%+ GB%.  I don’t think you need to make him your #1 priority but if you can buy low here, it may be worth the price.
• Charlie Morton (Orioles) – You won’t find Charlie Morton in the list above.  He comes in at #165.  So why do I include him in this list after such a dreadful start?  Well, the O’s just announced they are shifting him to the bullpen.  We’ve seen this dance before…long-time starter moves to the pen when it appears he’s started his last game.  Next thing we know his fastball speed picks up, his repertoire of pitches equals more Ks and begins throwing in more high-leverage spots or even returns to starts.  Either way, there’s potential value here for Points leagues.  All I’m saying is, just keep an eye on this situation.

There you go, my inaugural top 150 pitchers (plus one) for the rest of the Points league season.  Let me know what you think.

By the way, you may have noticed there’s no “Where We’re Going” segment this week.  I warned you last week that the baby birds need to learn to fly on their own.  If you’re still not flapping those wings enough, go HERE for help.

As always, you can find me on Twitter/X (@Derek_Favret) and on BlueSky (@dfavret.bsky.social).

Until next time, my friends!