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Today I’m dropping what many of you have asked for – my Points league’s top 150 hitters for the rest of the season.  Well, technically, you asked for my rankings, but this is close enough.

I’ll be the first to acknowledge, I’m not really a general “rankings guru” like many in the industry are…or attempt to be.  I love data (you know this by now), and I do like to stratify players.

Those sure sounds like rankings, TLB!”

Ok, you got me.  I do like to rank players, but it tends to be individually rather than generating “top 100+” lists.  See, when I “rank” players, it’s more frequently sorting against MLB averages or thresholds within a specific analytic.  For example, players having MLB average barrel rate = 7.8% or a contact rate > 80% being considered elite.  If you’ve followed me here, you’re familiar with this already.  I use it all the time in these articles.  So, this week will be a bit of an adventure for me since I usually tend to look for “other” ways to share my information.

For my rankings below, I’ve mixed up a proprietary blend of herbs and spices (hey, it works for the Colonel) to generate what I hope is a tasty dish.  My main ingredients are the player statistics generated through the end of April and our very own Razzball projections.  Both are available on the Razzball site at the hyperlinks provided.  That’s as far as I go in sharing my recipe.  After that, it’s proprietary!

Of course, you need to know the points distribution I’m using.  Yes, it’s the NFBC RazzSlam scoring as depicted below.  Of course, we’re only looking at the hitters this week so disregard the right side (until next week, perhaps).

Time for the big unveiling.  The FIRST edition of The Lineup Builder’s Top 150 hitters for the rest of the season.  So, without further adieu…

Rank Name Team
Rest of Season (PPG)
1 Aaron Judge NYY 6.52
2 Shohei Ohtani LAD 6.11
3 Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP 5.74
4 Kyle Tucker CHC 5.44
5 Elly De La Cruz CIN 5.44
6 Bobby Witt Jr. KCR 5.32
7 Corbin Carroll ARI 5.32
8 Teoscar Hernandez LAD 5.12
9 Jose Ramirez CLE 4.76
10 Oneil Cruz PIT 4.71
11 CJ Abrams WSN 4.62
12 Jackson Chourio MIL 4.54
13 Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC 4.53
14 Freddie Freeman LAD 4.5
15 Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL 4.5
16 Jarren Duran BOS 4.48
17 Wyatt Langford TEX 4.48
18 Mookie Betts LAD 4.37
19 Pete Alonso NYM 4.34
20 Seiya Suzuki CHC 4.31
21 Francisco Lindor NYM 4.3
22 Cedric Mullins BAL 4.27
23 Julio Rodriguez SEA 4.24
24 Alex Bregman BOS 4.23
25 Brice Turang MIL 4.19
26 Bryce Harper PHI 4.17
27 Steven Kwan CLE 4.17
28 Byron Buxton MIN 4.16
29 James Wood WSN 4.09
30 Trea Turner PHI 4.09
31 Luis Robert Jr. CHW 4.09
32 Gunnar Henderson BAL 4.05
33 Kyle Schwarber PHI 4.03
34 Noelvi Marte CIN 4.01
35 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 3.95
36 Josh Naylor ARI 3.94
37 Mike Trout LAA 3.91
38 Bryson Stott PHI 3.9
39 Jose Altuve HOU 3.9
40 Yordan Alvarez HOU 3.9
41 Corey Seager TEX 3.87
42 Ben Rice NYY 3.86
43 Juan Soto NYM 3.82
44 Manny Machado SDP 3.81
45 Jeremy Pena HOU 3.81
46 Austin Riley ATL 3.8
47 Michael Harris II ATL 3.79
48 Brenton Doyle COL 3.78
49 Gleyber Torres DET 3.74
50 Christian Yelich MIL 3.72
51 Marcell Ozuna ATL 3.7
52 Tommy Edman LAD 3.69
53 Cal Raleigh SEA 3.68
54 Rafael Devers BOS 3.66
55 Jung Hoo Lee SFG 3.66
56 Bo Bichette TOR 3.63
57 Kerry Carpenter DET 3.58
58 Wilyer Abreu BOS 3.55
59 Lars Nootbaar STL 3.54
60 Brent Rooker ATH 3.54
61 Lawrence Butler ATH 3.54
62 Paul Goldschmidt NYY 3.52
63 Matt McLain CIN 3.52
64 William Contreras MIL 3.5
65 Ryan O’Hearn BAL 3.5
66 Tyler Soderstrom ATH 3.49
67 Luis Arraez SDP 3.49
68 Brendan Donovan STL 3.48
69 Austin Hays CIN 3.48
70 Randy Arozarena SEA 3.47
71 Dylan Moore SEA 3.46
72 Jorge Polanco SEA 3.46
73 Anthony Volpe NYY 3.45
74 Geraldo Perdomo ARI 3.42
75 Junior Caminero TBR 3.42
76 Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY 3.41
77 Sean Murphy ATL 3.41
78 Logan O’Hoppe LAA 3.38
79 Andy Pages LAD 3.38
80 TJ Friedl CIN 3.36
81 Will Smith LAD 3.35
82 Ketel Marte ARI 3.35
83 Ozzie Albies ATL 3.35
84 Cody Bellinger NYY 3.33
85 George Springer TOR 3.32
86 Nico Hoerner CHC 3.32
87 Trevor Story BOS 3.32
88 Riley Greene DET 3.31
89 Trent Grisham NYY 3.31
90 Jordan Beck COL 3.3
91 Zach Neto LAA 3.27
92 Matt Olson ATL 3.25
93 Kyle Manzardo CLE 3.22
94 Ian Happ CHC 3.21
95 Luis Garcia WSN 3.2
96 Yandy Diaz TBR 3.2
97 Xavier Edwards MIA 3.18
98 Kristian Campbell BOS 3.17
99 Adolis Garcia TEX 3.16
100 Hunter Goodman COL 3.13
101 Spencer Torkelson DET 3.12
102 Ceddanne Rafaela BOS 3.11
103 Jackson Merrill SDP 3.11
104 Eugenio Suarez ARI 3.1
105 Maikel Garcia KCR 3.09
106 Dylan Crews WSN 3.07
107 Royce Lewis #N/A 3.05
108 Michael Busch CHC 3.04
109 Josh Jung TEX 3.04
110 Giancarlo Stanton #N/A 3.03
111 Andres Gimenez TOR 3.03
112 Bryan Reynolds PIT 3.01
113 Josh Lowe #N/A 3
114 Brandon Lowe TBR 3
115 Jacob Wilson ATH 2.98
116 Isaac Paredes HOU 2.98
117 Adley Rutschman BAL 2.97
118 Nick Castellanos PHI 2.97
119 Taylor Ward LAA 2.92
120 Andrew Benintendi CHW 2.91
121 Jorge Soler LAA 2.9
122 Jordan Westburg BAL 2.9
123 Shea Langeliers ATH 2.9
124 Nathaniel Lowe WSN 2.89
125 Jonathan Aranda TBR 2.86
126 Mike Yastrzemski SFG 2.85
127 Kyle Stowers MIA 2.85
128 Xander Bogaerts SDP 2.85
129 Brandon Nimmo NYM 2.84
130 Trevor Larnach MIN 2.84
131 Tyler Fitzgerald SFG 2.84
132 Jasson Dominguez NYY 2.83
133 Masyn Winn STL 2.83
134 Nolan Arenado STL 2.83
135 Johan Rojas PHI 2.83
136 Sal Frelick MIL 2.82
137 Mark Vientos NYM 2.81
138 Carson Kelly CHC 2.81
139 Heliot Ramos SFG 2.8
140 Ezequiel Tovar COL 2.79
141 Nolan Schanuel LAA 2.78
142 Christopher Morel TBR 2.76
143 Willson Contreras STL 2.75
144 Victor Robles SEA 2.74
145 Vinnie Pasquantino KCR 2.73
146 Alek Thomas ARI 2.71
147 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ARI 2.71
148 Christian Walker HOU 2.68
149 Tyler O’Neill BAL 2.68
150 Leody Taveras TEX 2.67

So, what do you think?  I mean, any rest of season hitter rankings that don’t have Judge or Ohtani at the top are probably not worth your time in reading further.  Will they both be there at the end?  Maybe so, maybe not.  BUT…on May 5, they need to head the list.

Now, what else do you notice?  If it’s the fact that I’m giving you my estimated PPG (Points Per Game), then you are one astute reader.  Yes, since we’re focusing on Points leagues, I think the best way to stratify the players is by providing the “RATE” of points we should expect.  That’s my little twist on the rankings.  These rankings are essentially driven by numbers (remember my proprietary blend?), and I didn’t really artificially tweak them to fit some crowdsourced model.  Instead, I’ll let the numbers say their piece, and I’ll provide a critique, spending some time sharing who I think may be overvalued and those who may be undervalued.

How’d You Rank So High?

Here are some players I feel may not live up to these rankings much longer!

  • Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs) – PCA may have stars for parents, but he’s been making a name for himself on the North Side this season.  He finished April with 6 HRs and a dozen SBs.  He’s added 3 more long-balls after my April 30 stats cut off.  He’s a great story, both for MLB and for fantasy, and I’m rooting for him to keep it going.  That said, #13?  That’s too rich for my blood.  A look at the metrics sees him hitting too many fly balls (up 8 %), and his Chase% is also up.  He’s getting by right now, but I see a regression coming.
  • Cedric Mullins (Orioles) – Mullins is another favorite of mine.  Little-known-fact…I have his minor league bobblehead right here on my desk.  So, it pains me to write this review.  Unfortunately, it appears he peaked in 2021 with his 30/30 season.  Now, we greedily take every HR and SB he offers, which looks like it’ll be in the 14-16 range for both.  I fear he’s also peaked in these rankings at #22.
  • Bryson Stott (Phillies) – When you look at Stott’s early season stats, it makes you wonder how a player with only 2 HRs and 7 SBs can rank at #38.  The answer is: 31 Hits at 4 points apiece.  The projections feel he can keep up this rate.  I see a career-high K% (21.1%) and career-low Contact% (76.3%), so I’m not as bullish here.
  • Austin Hays (Reds) – Hays put together a strong couple weeks in April, bookended by time away due to injuries, to land at #69.  I’ve always like the talent here, and playing in the Queen City is a bonus, but I just don’t see this holding over the long term.
  • Jorge Polanco (Mariners) – The 31-year old is another good early season story for the M’s, coming in at #72.  Here we have a player who’s averaged 15 HRs over the past 3 seasons but already has 9 in the books.  The career .265 hitter sees himself at .395 after 24 games.  Impressive, but this one screams “Sell High” to me.

Why You Ranked So Low?

Here are some players I feel may be movin’ on up!

  • Tyler Soderstron (A’s) – Tyler comes in at #65, which is admirable for a 3rd year player who’s finally getting an opportunity for regular playing time.  He’s already matched his career-high in HRs (in about half the number of games) and what’s more impressive are the underlying metrics.  Essentially all are positive:  Average is up.  Contract% is up.  Barrel rate is up.  Launch angle is up.  Hard Hit % is up.  BABIP is up.  LD% is up.  Chase rate is down.  K% is down.  Top 30 is not out of the question here.
  • Riley Greene, (Tigers) – Riley Greene coming in at #88 is just too low for me.  Looking at his metrics, it appears his swing is just not there yet.  GB% is up.  LD% is down.  FB% is down.  K% and Contact% are about the same.  If/when he puts it together, he’ll go on a tear.  NOTE: I tried to pry Greene from Truss in the Perts league recently but he wasn’t having it.  He’s also our editor so if that door wasn’t shut to me then, it certainly is now!
  • Josh Lowe (Rays) – We know the story here.  If only Josh Lowe can stay healthy… Big “IF” there.  But, if he does, I’m confident we’ll see him ascend from the #113 spot.
  • Isaac Paredes (Astros) – We’ve seen this all too often.  A player coming to a team with the perfect swing to fit the home stadium.  We saw a glimpse of it during a 3-game home stretch where he hit a HR in each game.  In fact, all of his HRs (4) this season have come at home.  Go Figure!  Better days are coming here!
  • Christian Walker (Astros) – Here’s yet another example of a new player in a new environment.  Walker has been, well we can say it, DREADFUL, and barely making the rankings at #148.  I mean, 4 HRs and 9 RBIs through April?  That’s dreadful.  What happened to the 70+% Contract rate?  The 15+% LD% and 44+% FB%?  On the bright side, his Barrel% and EV are both in line with recent history.  If Walker didn’t have the recent history on his side, he’d probably be down at Round Rock figuring things out.  So now, he’ll have to do it in Houston.  My money says he does.

I shared 5 players who I felt were too high and 5 who may be moving up.  What do you think?

Where We’re Going

For the last couple weeks, I’ve shared a snippet of Rudy’s projection sheet that looks at the week ahead and provides relative Points league scoring for general CBS, ESPN, Fantrax, and Yahoo leagues.  Have you taken advantage of that service yet?  I’ll give you another peak at the week ahead but it’s about that time where the mother bird kicks the baby birds out of the nest.  Just sayin!

There you have it, my first adventure into Points league rankings.  We can debate where players rank all day, so let’s do it.  Any names missing?  I’m sure there are.  We can chat about that too.  Just let me know what you think in the comments below.

As always, you can find me on Twitter/X (@Derek_Favret) and on BlueSky (@dfavret.bsky.social).

Until next time, my friends!

 

 

 

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Lincoln T
Lincoln T
14 hours ago

Hey LB, thanks for the points league input!

Our ESPN 12 team H2H non-redraft league carries 4 IL spots and 3 bench spots. Grayson Rodriguez, Nestor Cortez and Luis Gil on my IL. Now Jordan Westburg, Shota and possibly Teoscar on the IL also. Do you think GRod, Cortez or Gil will be a decent second half boost that i should just ride this out and keep them stashed?

caile39
caile39
1 day ago

Noelvi Marte at 34? Do you belive he will live up to that? Mark Vientos down at 137?

I have both and wondering if I should trade or drop one.

Thanks

martinrostoker
1 day ago

Hi Derek,

My second baseman is Marcus Seimen who has been struggling. On the wire is

Gleyber Torres
Luis Garcia
Xander Boguerto

I am reluctant to waive Seimsn.

1. Would you waive him to pick up any of the above three?

2. Another option to waive one of my streaming pitches to pick up of the above three. My streamers are:

Grant Holmes
Luis Servino
Reese Olson
Liberator
David Peterson
Max Scherzer IL on my regular staff
McClanaham

Would you waive any of these pitchers to pick up either Torres, garcia or Xander?

Thanks so very much!!

John
John
Reply to  The Lineup Builder
14 hours ago

I agree. Semien starts slow, but IF he goes 15 for 29, with 4 hrs and 10 rbi, you are back to his previous years averages.
Scherzer is done. McClanahan may not pitch this year either, but you have to hold and pray he can make it back. Alcantara is throwing 97 MPH, but pitching is seeing the spot you want to throw to, feeling it, and doing it. Can’t miss in MLB!

martin rostoker
martin rostoker
Reply to  John
14 hours ago

Thanks John!
Thanks got taking the time to help!!

martin rostoker
martin rostoker
Reply to  The Lineup Builder
14 hours ago

Thanks Derek! really appreciate you taking so much time to help me!!
I am grateful for all your help!!

mudhen11
mudhen11
1 day ago

Great article, thanks TLB! My points league scoring is more balanced between hitters and SP’s than RazzSlam (less generous to hitters). Just for comparison, the top 5 YTD batters in this league are: Judge, Tucker, Alonso, Perdomo (!!), and Bregman. And SP’s account for 5 of the top 10. So you’re so right about doing the calculations for your own league’s scoring.

I calculate projected points for this league using Rudy’s Steamer data, but I don’t make any adjustments for YTD performance (no secret recipe or special sauce), which leads me to two questions:

1 – You have Brenton Doyle just cracking the top 50 batters ROS, with Brent Rooker 12 spots lower. But in my league Rooker has been significantly better so far this year. Is your formula projecting that Doyle will heat up when the temperature at Coors Field heats up?

2 – Your projections have Sean Murphy placing pretty well ROS, vs. what the Steamer data says for me. This could just be a difference in the scoring system, but maybe your formula is seeing something I’m not?

Thanks, and keep ’em coming!

mudhen11
mudhen11
Reply to  The Lineup Builder
14 hours ago

Thanks Derek — I like both of your answers!

I have Rooker in my points league, while by my calc’s Doyle is the highest-ranked player on the WW. However SB’s are only worth 2 points in my league, which explains the difference.

phil
phil
1 day ago

surprised by the James Wood ranking. Kid’s tearing the cover off the ball, if he lifts it even a little more he’s gonna be a first rounder next year.

Snacks
Snacks
1 day ago

As someone who plays in several pts leagues, this is great. Helped me make some decisions. Thanks!

hoebaggerswascorrectchoice
hoebaggerswascorrectchoice
1 day ago

So if I’m reading this right, dropping Torkelson and Walker for O’Hearn and Friedl is a no-brainer?

Cable
Cable
1 day ago

12 team redraft

Why you rank so High ? Noelvi Marte

Why you rank so Low ? Juan Soto

Chucky
Chucky
1 day ago

Replacing Masyn Winn and his sore ankle with the freshly activated Willi Castro?

Last edited 1 day ago by Chucky
Hesh
Hesh
1 day ago

Soto seems low.