Today I’m dropping what many of you have asked for – my Points league’s top 150 hitters for the rest of the season. Well, technically, you asked for my rankings, but this is close enough.
I’ll be the first to acknowledge, I’m not really a general “rankings guru” like many in the industry are…or attempt to be. I love data (you know this by now), and I do like to stratify players.
“Those sure sounds like rankings, TLB!”
Ok, you got me. I do like to rank players, but it tends to be individually rather than generating “top 100+” lists. See, when I “rank” players, it’s more frequently sorting against MLB averages or thresholds within a specific analytic. For example, players having MLB average barrel rate = 7.8% or a contact rate > 80% being considered elite. If you’ve followed me here, you’re familiar with this already. I use it all the time in these articles. So, this week will be a bit of an adventure for me since I usually tend to look for “other” ways to share my information.
For my rankings below, I’ve mixed up a proprietary blend of herbs and spices (hey, it works for the Colonel) to generate what I hope is a tasty dish. My main ingredients are the player statistics generated through the end of April and our very own Razzball projections. Both are available on the Razzball site at the hyperlinks provided. That’s as far as I go in sharing my recipe. After that, it’s proprietary!
Of course, you need to know the points distribution I’m using. Yes, it’s the NFBC RazzSlam scoring as depicted below. Of course, we’re only looking at the hitters this week so disregard the right side (until next week, perhaps).
Time for the big unveiling. The FIRST edition of The Lineup Builder’s Top 150 hitters for the rest of the season. So, without further adieu…
Rank | Name | Team |
Rest of Season (PPG)
|
---|---|---|---|
1 | Aaron Judge | NYY | 6.52 |
2 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD | 6.11 |
3 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SDP | 5.74 |
4 | Kyle Tucker | CHC | 5.44 |
5 | Elly De La Cruz | CIN | 5.44 |
6 | Bobby Witt Jr. | KCR | 5.32 |
7 | Corbin Carroll | ARI | 5.32 |
8 | Teoscar Hernandez | LAD | 5.12 |
9 | Jose Ramirez | CLE | 4.76 |
10 | Oneil Cruz | PIT | 4.71 |
11 | CJ Abrams | WSN | 4.62 |
12 | Jackson Chourio | MIL | 4.54 |
13 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | CHC | 4.53 |
14 | Freddie Freeman | LAD | 4.5 |
15 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | ATL | 4.5 |
16 | Jarren Duran | BOS | 4.48 |
17 | Wyatt Langford | TEX | 4.48 |
18 | Mookie Betts | LAD | 4.37 |
19 | Pete Alonso | NYM | 4.34 |
20 | Seiya Suzuki | CHC | 4.31 |
21 | Francisco Lindor | NYM | 4.3 |
22 | Cedric Mullins | BAL | 4.27 |
23 | Julio Rodriguez | SEA | 4.24 |
24 | Alex Bregman | BOS | 4.23 |
25 | Brice Turang | MIL | 4.19 |
26 | Bryce Harper | PHI | 4.17 |
27 | Steven Kwan | CLE | 4.17 |
28 | Byron Buxton | MIN | 4.16 |
29 | James Wood | WSN | 4.09 |
30 | Trea Turner | PHI | 4.09 |
31 | Luis Robert Jr. | CHW | 4.09 |
32 | Gunnar Henderson | BAL | 4.05 |
33 | Kyle Schwarber | PHI | 4.03 |
34 | Noelvi Marte | CIN | 4.01 |
35 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | 3.95 |
36 | Josh Naylor | ARI | 3.94 |
37 | Mike Trout | LAA | 3.91 |
38 | Bryson Stott | PHI | 3.9 |
39 | Jose Altuve | HOU | 3.9 |
40 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | 3.9 |
41 | Corey Seager | TEX | 3.87 |
42 | Ben Rice | NYY | 3.86 |
43 | Juan Soto | NYM | 3.82 |
44 | Manny Machado | SDP | 3.81 |
45 | Jeremy Pena | HOU | 3.81 |
46 | Austin Riley | ATL | 3.8 |
47 | Michael Harris II | ATL | 3.79 |
48 | Brenton Doyle | COL | 3.78 |
49 | Gleyber Torres | DET | 3.74 |
50 | Christian Yelich | MIL | 3.72 |
51 | Marcell Ozuna | ATL | 3.7 |
52 | Tommy Edman | LAD | 3.69 |
53 | Cal Raleigh | SEA | 3.68 |
54 | Rafael Devers | BOS | 3.66 |
55 | Jung Hoo Lee | SFG | 3.66 |
56 | Bo Bichette | TOR | 3.63 |
57 | Kerry Carpenter | DET | 3.58 |
58 | Wilyer Abreu | BOS | 3.55 |
59 | Lars Nootbaar | STL | 3.54 |
60 | Brent Rooker | ATH | 3.54 |
61 | Lawrence Butler | ATH | 3.54 |
62 | Paul Goldschmidt | NYY | 3.52 |
63 | Matt McLain | CIN | 3.52 |
64 | William Contreras | MIL | 3.5 |
65 | Ryan O’Hearn | BAL | 3.5 |
66 | Tyler Soderstrom | ATH | 3.49 |
67 | Luis Arraez | SDP | 3.49 |
68 | Brendan Donovan | STL | 3.48 |
69 | Austin Hays | CIN | 3.48 |
70 | Randy Arozarena | SEA | 3.47 |
71 | Dylan Moore | SEA | 3.46 |
72 | Jorge Polanco | SEA | 3.46 |
73 | Anthony Volpe | NYY | 3.45 |
74 | Geraldo Perdomo | ARI | 3.42 |
75 | Junior Caminero | TBR | 3.42 |
76 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | NYY | 3.41 |
77 | Sean Murphy | ATL | 3.41 |
78 | Logan O’Hoppe | LAA | 3.38 |
79 | Andy Pages | LAD | 3.38 |
80 | TJ Friedl | CIN | 3.36 |
81 | Will Smith | LAD | 3.35 |
82 | Ketel Marte | ARI | 3.35 |
83 | Ozzie Albies | ATL | 3.35 |
84 | Cody Bellinger | NYY | 3.33 |
85 | George Springer | TOR | 3.32 |
86 | Nico Hoerner | CHC | 3.32 |
87 | Trevor Story | BOS | 3.32 |
88 | Riley Greene | DET | 3.31 |
89 | Trent Grisham | NYY | 3.31 |
90 | Jordan Beck | COL | 3.3 |
91 | Zach Neto | LAA | 3.27 |
92 | Matt Olson | ATL | 3.25 |
93 | Kyle Manzardo | CLE | 3.22 |
94 | Ian Happ | CHC | 3.21 |
95 | Luis Garcia | WSN | 3.2 |
96 | Yandy Diaz | TBR | 3.2 |
97 | Xavier Edwards | MIA | 3.18 |
98 | Kristian Campbell | BOS | 3.17 |
99 | Adolis Garcia | TEX | 3.16 |
100 | Hunter Goodman | COL | 3.13 |
101 | Spencer Torkelson | DET | 3.12 |
102 | Ceddanne Rafaela | BOS | 3.11 |
103 | Jackson Merrill | SDP | 3.11 |
104 | Eugenio Suarez | ARI | 3.1 |
105 | Maikel Garcia | KCR | 3.09 |
106 | Dylan Crews | WSN | 3.07 |
107 | Royce Lewis | #N/A | 3.05 |
108 | Michael Busch | CHC | 3.04 |
109 | Josh Jung | TEX | 3.04 |
110 | Giancarlo Stanton | #N/A | 3.03 |
111 | Andres Gimenez | TOR | 3.03 |
112 | Bryan Reynolds | PIT | 3.01 |
113 | Josh Lowe | #N/A | 3 |
114 | Brandon Lowe | TBR | 3 |
115 | Jacob Wilson | ATH | 2.98 |
116 | Isaac Paredes | HOU | 2.98 |
117 | Adley Rutschman | BAL | 2.97 |
118 | Nick Castellanos | PHI | 2.97 |
119 | Taylor Ward | LAA | 2.92 |
120 | Andrew Benintendi | CHW | 2.91 |
121 | Jorge Soler | LAA | 2.9 |
122 | Jordan Westburg | BAL | 2.9 |
123 | Shea Langeliers | ATH | 2.9 |
124 | Nathaniel Lowe | WSN | 2.89 |
125 | Jonathan Aranda | TBR | 2.86 |
126 | Mike Yastrzemski | SFG | 2.85 |
127 | Kyle Stowers | MIA | 2.85 |
128 | Xander Bogaerts | SDP | 2.85 |
129 | Brandon Nimmo | NYM | 2.84 |
130 | Trevor Larnach | MIN | 2.84 |
131 | Tyler Fitzgerald | SFG | 2.84 |
132 | Jasson Dominguez | NYY | 2.83 |
133 | Masyn Winn | STL | 2.83 |
134 | Nolan Arenado | STL | 2.83 |
135 | Johan Rojas | PHI | 2.83 |
136 | Sal Frelick | MIL | 2.82 |
137 | Mark Vientos | NYM | 2.81 |
138 | Carson Kelly | CHC | 2.81 |
139 | Heliot Ramos | SFG | 2.8 |
140 | Ezequiel Tovar | COL | 2.79 |
141 | Nolan Schanuel | LAA | 2.78 |
142 | Christopher Morel | TBR | 2.76 |
143 | Willson Contreras | STL | 2.75 |
144 | Victor Robles | SEA | 2.74 |
145 | Vinnie Pasquantino | KCR | 2.73 |
146 | Alek Thomas | ARI | 2.71 |
147 | Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | ARI | 2.71 |
148 | Christian Walker | HOU | 2.68 |
149 | Tyler O’Neill | BAL | 2.68 |
150 | Leody Taveras | TEX | 2.67 |
So, what do you think? I mean, any rest of season hitter rankings that don’t have Judge or Ohtani at the top are probably not worth your time in reading further. Will they both be there at the end? Maybe so, maybe not. BUT…on May 5, they need to head the list.
Now, what else do you notice? If it’s the fact that I’m giving you my estimated PPG (Points Per Game), then you are one astute reader. Yes, since we’re focusing on Points leagues, I think the best way to stratify the players is by providing the “RATE” of points we should expect. That’s my little twist on the rankings. These rankings are essentially driven by numbers (remember my proprietary blend?), and I didn’t really artificially tweak them to fit some crowdsourced model. Instead, I’ll let the numbers say their piece, and I’ll provide a critique, spending some time sharing who I think may be overvalued and those who may be undervalued.
How’d You Rank So High?
Here are some players I feel may not live up to these rankings much longer!
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs) – PCA may have stars for parents, but he’s been making a name for himself on the North Side this season. He finished April with 6 HRs and a dozen SBs. He’s added 3 more long-balls after my April 30 stats cut off. He’s a great story, both for MLB and for fantasy, and I’m rooting for him to keep it going. That said, #13? That’s too rich for my blood. A look at the metrics sees him hitting too many fly balls (up 8 %), and his Chase% is also up. He’s getting by right now, but I see a regression coming.
- Cedric Mullins (Orioles) – Mullins is another favorite of mine. Little-known-fact…I have his minor league bobblehead right here on my desk. So, it pains me to write this review. Unfortunately, it appears he peaked in 2021 with his 30/30 season. Now, we greedily take every HR and SB he offers, which looks like it’ll be in the 14-16 range for both. I fear he’s also peaked in these rankings at #22.
- Bryson Stott (Phillies) – When you look at Stott’s early season stats, it makes you wonder how a player with only 2 HRs and 7 SBs can rank at #38. The answer is: 31 Hits at 4 points apiece. The projections feel he can keep up this rate. I see a career-high K% (21.1%) and career-low Contact% (76.3%), so I’m not as bullish here.
- Austin Hays (Reds) – Hays put together a strong couple weeks in April, bookended by time away due to injuries, to land at #69. I’ve always like the talent here, and playing in the Queen City is a bonus, but I just don’t see this holding over the long term.
- Jorge Polanco (Mariners) – The 31-year old is another good early season story for the M’s, coming in at #72. Here we have a player who’s averaged 15 HRs over the past 3 seasons but already has 9 in the books. The career .265 hitter sees himself at .395 after 24 games. Impressive, but this one screams “Sell High” to me.
Why You Ranked So Low?
Here are some players I feel may be movin’ on up!
- Tyler Soderstron (A’s) – Tyler comes in at #65, which is admirable for a 3rd year player who’s finally getting an opportunity for regular playing time. He’s already matched his career-high in HRs (in about half the number of games) and what’s more impressive are the underlying metrics. Essentially all are positive: Average is up. Contract% is up. Barrel rate is up. Launch angle is up. Hard Hit % is up. BABIP is up. LD% is up. Chase rate is down. K% is down. Top 30 is not out of the question here.
- Riley Greene, (Tigers) – Riley Greene coming in at #88 is just too low for me. Looking at his metrics, it appears his swing is just not there yet. GB% is up. LD% is down. FB% is down. K% and Contact% are about the same. If/when he puts it together, he’ll go on a tear. NOTE: I tried to pry Greene from Truss in the Perts league recently but he wasn’t having it. He’s also our editor so if that door wasn’t shut to me then, it certainly is now!
- Josh Lowe (Rays) – We know the story here. If only Josh Lowe can stay healthy… Big “IF” there. But, if he does, I’m confident we’ll see him ascend from the #113 spot.
- Isaac Paredes (Astros) – We’ve seen this all too often. A player coming to a team with the perfect swing to fit the home stadium. We saw a glimpse of it during a 3-game home stretch where he hit a HR in each game. In fact, all of his HRs (4) this season have come at home. Go Figure! Better days are coming here!
- Christian Walker (Astros) – Here’s yet another example of a new player in a new environment. Walker has been, well we can say it, DREADFUL, and barely making the rankings at #148. I mean, 4 HRs and 9 RBIs through April? That’s dreadful. What happened to the 70+% Contract rate? The 15+% LD% and 44+% FB%? On the bright side, his Barrel% and EV are both in line with recent history. If Walker didn’t have the recent history on his side, he’d probably be down at Round Rock figuring things out. So now, he’ll have to do it in Houston. My money says he does.
I shared 5 players who I felt were too high and 5 who may be moving up. What do you think?
Where We’re Going
For the last couple weeks, I’ve shared a snippet of Rudy’s projection sheet that looks at the week ahead and provides relative Points league scoring for general CBS, ESPN, Fantrax, and Yahoo leagues. Have you taken advantage of that service yet? I’ll give you another peak at the week ahead but it’s about that time where the mother bird kicks the baby birds out of the nest. Just sayin!
There you have it, my first adventure into Points league rankings. We can debate where players rank all day, so let’s do it. Any names missing? I’m sure there are. We can chat about that too. Just let me know what you think in the comments below.
As always, you can find me on Twitter/X (@Derek_Favret) and on BlueSky (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends!
Hey LB, thanks for the points league input!
Our ESPN 12 team H2H non-redraft league carries 4 IL spots and 3 bench spots. Grayson Rodriguez, Nestor Cortez and Luis Gil on my IL. Now Jordan Westburg, Shota and possibly Teoscar on the IL also. Do you think GRod, Cortez or Gil will be a decent second half boost that i should just ride this out and keep them stashed?
The Lincoln Infirmary! That’s a tough list of walking wounded there. On the positive side (maybe the only one here right now), it doesn’t appear Westburg will miss much more time.
I have Grayson stashed in a league and plan to hold him there as long as I can. Gil has started a throwing program so I’d hold further there too unless he has a setback. If you need a healthy body, I’m ok letting Cortez go. He’s far enough away that you may be able to add him back once some of your other injuries heal.
It’s a tough call but my philosophy is to hold as long as possible without hampering your starting roster. If you’re losing H2H matchups because you can’t field a full starting lineup, it’s time to make tough choices.
Good luck there!
Noelvi Marte at 34? Do you belive he will live up to that? Mark Vientos down at 137?
I have both and wondering if I should trade or drop one.
Thanks
In this format, Vientos is just not scoring points. It really just comes down looking at their H/AB rate. Vientos is at 0.21 while Marte is 0.31. Sprinkle in a few SBs @ 5 points a pop for Marte, and he rises up the standings.
Do I think he’ll hold at #34? No, but I look at the underlying metrics (he’s not barreling the ball) and don’t see a pathway for Vientos to climb substantially (say, into the top 40-50) unless he really goes on a HR tear.
Hi Derek,
My second baseman is Marcus Seimen who has been struggling. On the wire is
Gleyber Torres
Luis Garcia
Xander Boguerto
I am reluctant to waive Seimsn.
1. Would you waive him to pick up any of the above three?
2. Another option to waive one of my streaming pitches to pick up of the above three. My streamers are:
Grant Holmes
Luis Servino
Reese Olson
Liberator
David Peterson
Max Scherzer IL on my regular staff
McClanaham
Would you waive any of these pitchers to pick up either Torres, garcia or Xander?
Thanks so very much!!
Hi Martin,
I’ve been a Semien-truther for a number of years but I made a conscious decision to move off him this season and risk being wrong. So far, it looks like I’m not. Is he completely washed? No, I don’t think so but he’s clearly not the player we loved in fantasy. Honestly, I’d take any of the 3 you name over Semien right now – probably in the order you list.
That said, I’d look to waive one of your streaming pitchers instead of dropping Semien right now. If Semien can string together a few “hot” weeks, he’ll have trade value and perhaps you can upgrade somewhere else.
Honestly, I’d probably drop Scherzer. He’s about a month away and even when he’s back, he’s not a must-start anymore.
Good luck, my friend.
I agree. Semien starts slow, but IF he goes 15 for 29, with 4 hrs and 10 rbi, you are back to his previous years averages.
Scherzer is done. McClanahan may not pitch this year either, but you have to hold and pray he can make it back. Alcantara is throwing 97 MPH, but pitching is seeing the spot you want to throw to, feeling it, and doing it. Can’t miss in MLB!
Thanks John!
Thanks got taking the time to help!!
Thanks Derek! really appreciate you taking so much time to help me!!
I am grateful for all your help!!
Great article, thanks TLB! My points league scoring is more balanced between hitters and SP’s than RazzSlam (less generous to hitters). Just for comparison, the top 5 YTD batters in this league are: Judge, Tucker, Alonso, Perdomo (!!), and Bregman. And SP’s account for 5 of the top 10. So you’re so right about doing the calculations for your own league’s scoring.
I calculate projected points for this league using Rudy’s Steamer data, but I don’t make any adjustments for YTD performance (no secret recipe or special sauce), which leads me to two questions:
1 – You have Brenton Doyle just cracking the top 50 batters ROS, with Brent Rooker 12 spots lower. But in my league Rooker has been significantly better so far this year. Is your formula projecting that Doyle will heat up when the temperature at Coors Field heats up?
2 – Your projections have Sean Murphy placing pretty well ROS, vs. what the Steamer data says for me. This could just be a difference in the scoring system, but maybe your formula is seeing something I’m not?
Thanks, and keep ’em coming!
Hey Mudhen, thanks for the great questions. In truth, my “proprietary” formula is not much more than weighting the YTD and ROS numbers. I haven’t settled on my formula yet but it gave me a good starting point to put something out for discussion. I definitely don’t love all the rankings as they came out but again, it gives a nice place to start the discussions from.
I traced the difference between Doyle and Rooker to the weighting. Doyle comes in slightly higher in this scoring format because he gets the SB scoring when Rooker does not. I have shares of both but personally, I’m going with Rooker.
Murphy’s ranking is strongly supported by his early season numbers in the weighting and generally strong advanced analytics. To be honest, I personally see him dropping down (maybe even out of the top 150) rest of season. If I wrote up more players in the analysis, he would have been another in the “How’d You Rank So High” category.
Thanks again for the great questions and more importantly, good on you for doing your own analysis! Good luck!
Thanks Derek — I like both of your answers!
I have Rooker in my points league, while by my calc’s Doyle is the highest-ranked player on the WW. However SB’s are only worth 2 points in my league, which explains the difference.
surprised by the James Wood ranking. Kid’s tearing the cover off the ball, if he lifts it even a little more he’s gonna be a first rounder next year.
I agree, Woods could easily be a top OF pick next year. He comes in at #29 because the projections have him cooling off a bit off his April pace as the Summer wears on.
As someone who plays in several pts leagues, this is great. Helped me make some decisions. Thanks!
Thanks Snacks, glad you find it helpful. Note my comment below – you really should evaluate based on your league settings if they differ than the scoring I provided in the article.
So if I’m reading this right, dropping Torkelson and Walker for O’Hearn and Friedl is a no-brainer?
You really MUST perform the calculations for your specific league format before considering that conclusion.
Also remember, these are estimated PPG so injury risk and other factors should be considered qualitatively before making any moves.
12 team redraft
Why you rank so High ? Noelvi Marte
Why you rank so Low ? Juan Soto
As I wrote in the article, these rankings are formula driven, I really didn’t add my personal bias to them. Instead, I wrote about players I thought were too high or too low.
Marte is attractive in this Points leagues format because he hits the ball (20 H in 64 ABs @ 4 points per H), and mixes in HRs and SBs.
Soto would naturally be higher if BBs were scored. He’s not doing much on the bases and is not gathering steaks at nearly the same rate (almost 1/2 as many per AB).
Replacing Masyn Winn and his sore ankle with the freshly activated Willi Castro?
That’s fair. Willy Adames is in that mix of SS just outside the top 150 too.
Soto seems low.
I agree. I didn’t write about him being too low but personally, I’d put him inside the top 25 (20-25 range). Pete Alonso has been great, but Soto’s situation is just not the same as it was last year in Yankee Stadium with Judge.