There is a lot of news out there these days regarding tariffs. I mean, it’s mid-March and we should be saturating ourselves with Spring Training news, right? Unfortunately, that’s not the world we live in right now, so we need to make the best of it. So, let’s set the record straight…What exactly is a tariff?
A tariff is defined as a tax imposed by a country on goods and services imported from another country. They are designed to make imported goods more expensive than domestically produced goods, potentially encouraging consumers to buy local products and protecting domestic industries from foreign competition. Now, I’m not going to juggle the current political hot potato regarding tariffs, I’m just setting the stage for this week’s fantasy baseball article.
I hear you wondering now, “How on earth are tariffs relevant to fantasy baseball?” Well, that’s a good question and in the hands of a lesser fantasy analyst, it might be an impossible comparison to make. Lucky for you though, I’m here to answer that perplexing question. Just give me a second to finish showering accolades on myself!
Ok, I’m back…
As we all know, we’re right in the heart of draft season. Whether you’re playing in high-stakes industry leagues or your competitive home league, the draft is the most anticipated event of the fantasy season. All the work you’ve done to get here, from player analysis to evaluating draft strategies, culminates on draft day. What a glorious time for the fantasy baseball enthusiast.
The reality is drafts rarely win you a title on their own. You still must manage your team appropriately to get to the Championship game in September. Don’t forget the golden rule though: while you can’t WIN your league on draft day, you certainly can LOSE your league, and the quickest way to do that is by investing your draft capital in the wrong places.
“Uh oh, TLB is starting to use monetary terms to discuss fantasy baseball drafts.”
BINGO!
Yes, we should think of fantasy drafts like purchasing goods and services. In the fantasy baseball world, we use our draft funds (everything from dollars in auction drafts to draft position in snake drafts) to “purchase” the services of those players in the hopes of building a winning roster.
“Ok, that kinda makes sense, but where do tariffs come in?”
Yet another good question.
In the “real” world, tariffs are applied to foreign goods. In the “fantasy” world though, we’re not talking about putting a tariff on players like Shohei Ohtani or Jose Ramirez because they hail from other countries. No, what I’m talking about is a draft tariff, one in which we are paying a higher draft cost (i.e., draft tax) by following ADP.
Now, you may recall just a short week ago, I penned an article, Points Leagues – Don’t Do This! In that piece, I made a case to not follow a platform’s ADP when drafting in Points leagues. Hopefully, I made a compelling argument! Today, I’m going to build on that and demonstrate in “tariff” terms some of the players we’re currently paying a higher tax on by following ADP.
To illustrate, I’ll use RazzSlam as the model – including both the RazzSlam scoring format and the NFBC ADP data over the past two weeks. From those datapoints, I will compare the ranks of the players based on their projected scoring and the ADP rankings.
From this analysis, we can identify players who we are paying tariffs on at their ADP. Some of the names may surprise you.
Let’s get started.
First, here is the RazzSlam scoring as a reminder:
Using Razzball/Streamer projections for hitters and pitchers, a score is calculated based on their projected full-season stats. For those unfamiliar with the NFBC site, they provide ADP data based on their formats. You can use their broad ADP or narrow your selection to certain formats and date ranges, etc. For my analysis, I’m looking at ADP over the past two weeks, which includes RazzSlam.
Don’t get me wrong, despite my continued bashing of ADP, it does have a place in our game and is a useful tool if used properly. Unfortunately, so many of us default to it and that’s when it becomes taxing (see what I did there?).
Now that we have the ground rules established, let’s begin.
50%+ Tariffs
I’ll rip the band aid off and start off at the high end. Right now, we’re paying the highest tariffs on pitchers in Points leagues, both starters and closers. Here’s a sample:
If you read either of my previous articles, Points Leagues – It’s All About The Strategy, Baby! or Points Leagues – Don’t Do This!, I made a case for not selecting pitchers early in drafts. In the latter piece, I included the first nine rounds of my RazzSlam draft where I selected only one pitcher – in the 9th round! This is the reason why. In that scoring format in particular, the tax we pay on pitchers following ADP is driven by the need to fill pitching categories in Roto drafts. Note that may not be the case with all ADP lists, but it’s certainly something you need to understand and adjust for, if necessary.
These high tariffs are not just limited to pitchers, catchers too are expensive these days. Here is a table listing a few of those:
Of course, the primary reason for this is most NFBC leagues feature a two-catcher format. That alone drives the price up for catchers in those drafts. So, if you are in a one-catcher league, be especially wary of following ADP. That might sound like common sense advice but I’m here to tell you it still happens. As an example, William Contreras was drafted in the early 3rd round in one of my one-catcher leagues just the other day. I love the guy but that’s WAY TOO EARLY to be drafting catchers in that format.
In this tariff bracket, pitchers and catchers make up the bulk of the names. There are a few position players, along with a few notable pitchers that I didn’t list above, that we are paying the highest taxes on:
The reasons we see these names in the high tariff list varies widely. For instance:
- Paul Skenes is a consensus top one or two fantasy pitcher this season but the projections feel the Pirates will go a little easy on him (160-165 innings) and therefore his fantasy scoring numbers are a bit lower.
- When healthy, Spencer Strider is obviously a top starting pitcher. Will he be fully healthy when he returns to the mound in late April? Odds are “NO” but that isn’t stopping optimistic drafters to buy what they feel is a discount.
- Gunnar Henderson’s scoring projections were clearly revised after he suffered the intercostal injury and thus his Opening Day status became in doubt. That didn’t stop some drafters from taking him mid-first round anyway (I am guilty of that myself).
As a final note here, I’m not here telling you to completely avoid these players in your drafts, even at/near their ADP. But it should be obvious that you don’t want to spend all your draft capital in this area as well. Look for values (more on that later).
25%+ Tariffs
Now to the lower tariff brackets. I’m sure by now you’re clearly seeing where I’m coming from with this analysis. So, moving forward, more names and less blabber from me. Deal?
There aren’t a lot of big names in this tariff bracket, but some stood out to me:
- With the injury to Jeff McNeil, Luisangel Acuna’s draft stock is obviously rising faster than his projections.
- Drafters are not generally paying up for last year’s hype surrounding Jackson Holliday. Dare I say a 200+ ADP might actually have some value?
- Hype is clearly in play with Jordan Lawlar too.
- Dylan Moore is not a sexy name in fantasy circles but when you factor in all his positional eligibility, we start paying the tax.
- Can you believe people are drafting Patrick Corbin? The 35-year-old remains a FA and conceivably may not pitch in the big leagues again but he’s being drafted – most likely in the 50 round Draft-and Hold type leagues. Nevertheless, he shows up in this analysis.
See, that’s how deep I dig into these numbers for all of you!
10%+ Tariffs
If you’re paying up for these guys, you aren’t breaking the bank:
Although not strictly values, compared to some of the names we saw above, you could craft a pretty good team from this list.
- Much like Spencer Strider, Shane McClanahan is one of the top arms in baseball when fully healthy. They’re also going about the same area in drafts. The difference? The prognosticators are a little sweeter on Shane this season.
- Jake Burger is an interesting case, buoyed by his move to Texas and multi-position eligibility. He won’t drain your bank account either.
- I honestly don’t understand why Mookie Betts is being drafted in the late 1st or early 2nd…especially in leagues where he has (or will soon have) 2B, SS and OF eligibility.
- Same goes for Juan Soto. Now that he has his own bank, fantasy drafters apparently don’t feel they need to break theirs to obtain him.
Investment Capital
So far, I’ve spent a lot of your draft capital. Now it’s time to get some of it back. I’ll call this group “investment capital” because in theory, these players should be putting money back in your wallets. Here are some value picks you may want to highlight:
Look at all those values:
- Luis Arraez may not hit many home runs or steal many bases, but he’s arguably the best pure hitter in the game today. Last I checked, the RazzSlam scoring rewards hits with 4 points each. Those add up…a fact lost on my Points league drafters apparently. Disregard the number, the fact that he’s at the top of the heap is what’s important to note. In my RazzSlam draft as an example, he was drafted at pick 91. That still calculates to a 128% value.
- I love Ezequiel Tovar this season. A 20:10 (HR:SB) season, with the upside of 25:15, is a reasonable expectation. He’s a value pick if you miss out on one of the SS that are going in the early rounds.
- Josh Lowe is another player I target everywhere. There is some risk as he’s surpassed 110 games only once, but he has the upside of 25:25 if he stays healthy. The Rays are also playing half their games at George Steinbrenner Field, so there’s that!
- Speaking of playing at AAA stadiums, Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler are primed to have huge years. Grab as many shares as you can.
“Grab as many shares as you can” refers to most of the names in this list. Time is running out.
Before I put a bow on this one, I want to take a minute to address some feedback I’ve received recently. Some readers ask for my projections or scoring lists that I use to craft these masterpieces of fantasy lore. While I appreciate the interest, I hesitate to do so because Points leagues tend to be SO DIFFERENT. For instance, I play in a number of Points leagues and almost all of them offer slightly (or not so slightly) different scoring formats. Because of this, I run the numbers and determine what I feel is an optimal draft strategy EVERY TIME.
My goal is to help you win. PERIOD! The best way to do that in draft season is to discuss strategy and provide tools that I’ve found to be successful. I’m happy to answer any questions and even help with the math. Just drop your questions in the comments below and we’ll work through it together.
Plus, if Grey starts seeing my comment numbers go way up, maybe I’ll get a bonus. BOOM!
Good luck with the rest of your drafts. By the time you see me next, we’ll already have a pair of regular-season games in the books. We’ll also be in the final countdown to Opening Day. I can’t wait!
In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter/X (@Derek_Favret) and on BlueSky (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends.
Catcher … William Contreras 3rd or Langeliers 11th rd … h/h points
I pass on Contreras in the 3rd already. Plus, I’m pretty high on Langeliers as a low-cost option that should return draft capital.
In the 15-teamer I’m currently drafting in, Contreras was drafted late 2nd and Langeliers was drafted in the early 9th.
Shea is the better value.
$600 fee $5 per all transactions ..12 team h/h points 20 players drafted … start 5 SPers per …1 Closer per week … hitters 1 hitter each position in infield.. 1 DH…3 OFers … my bench are all SPers …
Would you draft 4 hitters before drafting SPers .. I usually like to have 5 SPers inside the top 50 Pitchers ….
At $5 per transaction, I’d be less inclined to stream P so I’d go in thinking I’ll have one SP in the first 4 rounds. I’m also targeting multi-positional players even more. Flexibility is going to be a huge advantage in my mind. Perhaps take Willi Castro for one bench spot to give you that flexibility.
Brand new subscriber, 9th overall season, draft was last week for a points based 10 team league.
I adopted the “no SP until the end of 4th/start of 5th rounds” strategy (had top pick and went Ohtani) and I think it paid off. I’m asking for an evaluation of my lineup and pitching via draft and a couple moves there after (just an A to F rating):
C- Shea Langeliers
1B- Bryce Harper
2B- Jordan Westburg
3B- Austin Riley
SS- Willy Adames
OF- Teoscar Hernandez
OF- Riley Greene
OF- Colton Cowser
UTIL- Ohtani
UTIL- Jake Burger
SP- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
SP- Framber Valdez
RP- Edwin Diaz
RP- Trevor Megill
P- Justin Steele
P- Brandon Pfaadt
P- Nathan Eovaldi
P- Shane Baz
P- Merrill Kelly
P- Reese Olson
P- Michael Wacha
P- Brandon Woodruff
P- Cody Bradford
P- Jackson Jobe
P- Dustin May
IL- Eury Perez
NA- Bubba Chandler
NA- Noah Schultz
The only further questions would be:
Will Shane Baz struggle with Steinbrenner Field?
What can I expect of Woodruff since Tommy John this season?
I’m always considering who is “low man” on my pitching carousel for the sake of streaming, not including how names like Bradford and Woodruff might go IL very soon and free up spaces for streaming purposes or to just stash someone as the first couple weeks pan out
Very much looking forward to what you and Razzball can do for me to secure my next championship win!
Hey James, welcome to the Razzball team. We’ll take good care of you.
Great job waiting on pitchers. Looking at your bats, it shows. Very strong starting lineup there. I like every one of those players. “A” for sure.
Your P staff is very solid too. A Yoshi/Framber 1-2 punch is an A+. Two very strong RPs too (some are sleeping on Megill but I wound’t be surprised if he’s a top 5 CL this year). I’m a big fan of Steele as well.
I’m not overly worried about Baz. Sure, Steinbrenner Field is Yankee Stadium South with the infamous short porch in RF, but lefties hit a minuscule .164 off him last season. He’ll give up a few for sure, but in the long run, you want him in your lineup.
With Woodruff, just keep your expectations in check. They’re understandably building him up cautiously and he won’t be ready to go right away, but early indications are he’s on the right track. Rudy is projecting about 127 innings this season, which feels about right to me. I doubt he pitches deep into many games so Wins may be an issue and thus his average Points/game may also suffer a bit. Just be patient here.
Cody Bradford looks like he’s firmly your “low man” right now. He’ll start on the IL and it’s likely we don’t see him until May.
I would also keep an eye on Dustin May. Once Shohei starts pitching again, the Dodgers likely go to a 1-start per week formula, which will limit May’s opportunity to generate points. You may want to consider trading him for a pitcher with more dependable innings, if he gets off to a hot start.
Perhaps look to add some high-leverage RPs as well if they are available. I tend to carry a few to plug in as needed to keep generating points. If this is a league with daily roster moves and no weekly IP limit, they can almost become a cheat code for you.
Good luck and again, welcome the Razzball family. I’ll be here all season to bounce ideas off.
For Bradford, I’m hopeful to stash him into IL soon when TEX makes the designation as with Woodruff and his team. I’m considering Tomoyuki Sugano and Hayden Birdsong so the next available SP spots.
Which of the two would you prioritize over the other and why?
It’s a five adds per week league and I’m not worried about competing full tilt to win week one through April 6 or even week 2 for the sake of hurting my team long term.
I’ll definitely monitor the May situation as I had to snag him for Tobias Meyers with May getting the fifth starter spot when Gonsolin took himself out lifting weights
I figure it’s worth using the five weekly adds to stream but never waste an add that would otherwise just sit there and rot if I could do something useful with it, especially for a viable upgrade somewhere
Sugano is a pitcher I have been targeting lately as well. He throws a lot of strikes and comes with a strong pedigree in Japan. Of course, we don’t know if that will translate to MLB but in my opinion, he’s worth a shot. If he surprises us, it’s 100% value. If he struggles, it won’t cost anything.
Done deal, taking Sugano for Bradford.
When Bradford goes IL, I’ll consider stashing him with an extra add available.
When Woodruff goes IL, I might take Hayden Birdsong to occupy that spot or make it my “carousel” for streaming for the first week and let the chips fall where they may
In a format like razzslam, what does your depth chart look like at each position (i.e. how many of each do we want on final rosters)?
In RazzSlam, I want to be 3-deep at every infield position at minimum. I will target multi-positional players here more than weekly or daily formats so I can get to 4-deep at most positions (I rarely carry more than 3 C though).
For OF, I tend to have 9 or 10 players eligible.
For P, I try to be in the 16-19 window, depending on the top of the staff and the rest of the team makeup. In the current draft, I have a number of multi-positional batters so I can afford to grab another P. I always mix in high-leverage RPs, especially late, to reduce the risk of donuts if a SP gets blown up or a number miss time.
Nice lesson. This article may shock quite a few. Because, you’re 100% correct, tariffs are on imported goods, but … in this country, Americans are paying the tax.
entertaining and educational…that’s what I was going for.
Another great piece here, D. I’ll be adding a couple of your value names to the last rounds of the RazzSlam draft queue!
Thanks MD. It’s a good thing for me we’re not in the same league again. Looking forward to your TGFBI piece tomorrow.
It’s unreal that some people still don’t know the definition of a tariff. America the…. Lol.
Great article!!
Thanks for the comment. As a content creator, it’s always fun to link “real life” with “fantasy sports” like this. I’m glad you enjoyed the read.
Hi Derek,
What a fantastic article! How clever! Do you want to be President? Does this mean that Rudy should pay Canadian fantasy writers more to make up for the tariffs? But I digress…
As the season comes close, would appreciate your response to the folks questions. The following is my team after the draft and a few waiver moves:
Your kindness is very much appreciated. I would appreciate any ideas where I need to make improvements. I would welcome any thoughts especially on my pitching staff.
C: Cal Raleigh
1B: Josh Naylor
2B: Marcus Seimen
3B: Austin Riley
SS: Francisco Lindor
LF: Marcell Ozuno
CF: Brandon Nimmo
RF: Anthony Santandar
DH: Manny Machado (3B)
BN: Cowser
BN; Christian Yelich
BN: Jeremy Pena
BN;Lane Thomas
BN;Josh Jung
SP: Framber Valdez
SP: Max Fried
SP: Seth Lugo
SP: Bowden Francis
SP: Shane McClanahan
SP: Carlos Rodon
SP: Clarke Schmidt
SP: Ryan Weathers
SP: Will Warren
RP: Peter Fairbanks
RP; Jordan Romano
1. What are your thoughts on Kris Bubic, Casey Mize and Jack Leiter?
2. Would you pick up any of these three pitchers?Who would you drop among either pitchers or even hitters?
Note: I have two extra RFs in Thomas and Cowser
Thanks!!!!!
Martin
Canadian fantasy writers? Are there such beasts and if there are, do they only write hockey articles? Haha.
Hey Martin, thanks for being such a dedicated reader. We all appreciate it.
This roster looks familiar, I think I answered some questions on it last week. Regardless, I’ll address your questions at the end.
Thanks Derek!
You and Mamosdad should become a dream fantasy team. He recently wrote a funny piece on tariffs.
I just read that Clarke Schmitt has a sore shoulder. Would you be patient or cut him to pick up Bubic?
Really appreciate all your kindness!!!
Martin
If MarmosDad and I teamed up, he would be Batman and I would be Robin. MarmosDad is a goat!
I’d hold on Schmidt. He’s scheduled to throw a pen tomorrow so it may not be all that serious.
Perfect sense! Thanks!!!!
Picking at the turn tonight. If any one of Skenes or Skrubal is available, I have to take one, right?
Sorry, 12 team, points redraft
Hey Chucky, I’m passing on a pitcher at the 1/2 turn in a 12-team draft. Get those bats early and be confident the arms will be there later.
Good series of articles and I really like your approach. I have tinkered with it for my H2H points league drafts for the last two years.
I say “tinkered” because in this league the points have been assigned to roughly balance good batters and good SP’s (assuming those SP’s stay healthy…). So when I use Rudy’s Steamer data to project total points, about half of the top-10 players are SP’s, and 28 of the top 50!
I don’t want to draft a pitcher in the first 4 (or 5) rounds, so I end up manually pushing the SP’s down and re-sorting them using a mutated Grey/MarmosDad ranking. It worked pretty well last year…
Some of the ideas you describe still stand out with my scoring though, for example players like Luis Arraez are much more valuable in points leagues, and I have pushed him way up in my rankings.
Another thing that jumps out at me is that closers don’t have much value in this Sv+Hd points league — by projected points I’m better off filling my RP slots with SP/RP’s (not many this year) or set-up men or good long relievers (not easy to spot at draft time).
This is the EXACT reason I always suggest we perform the analysis on every league. In most of my leagues, hitters tend to rise early but I really like to hear of league formats like yours that try to balance it out a bit.
Doing the homework to know closers don’t have as much value puts you in a good position because some will inevitably draft Josh Hader or Devin Williams based on name value.
Every time I do the league analysis, I find a few players like Luis Arraez that provide good value. I make sure to put them in my queue so I don’t lose track of them during the draft.
Good luck, Mudhen!
Thanks! We’ll see how it works out — the commissioner of this league (who sets the point values) took Wheeler and Skubal as his first two picks, while I did not take an SP until round 6 (Framber, and then Bryce Miller in 7).
Framber and Bryce in the 6/7 is tremendous value in a league like yours. Compare your 1/2 bats versus the ones he took in the 6/7 range. I suspect the advantage swings your way quite a bit.
He got CJ Abrams and Altuve in 5/6 (his 7 was Ober) — also pretty good value IMO. MY 1/2 were Tucker and Gunnar.
How much value to you put on multi-positional players?
I use it for tie breakers if I’m looking at 2 or 3 players and can’t decide.
I put a lot of value on them in 15-team leagues. In fact, I specifically target certain ones, especially if there’s expectations on adding a position in April (Jazz Chisholm comes to mind).
In 10-team leagues, not so much. There’s plenty of players on waivers in most leagues.
In 12-teamers, I’m much like you…use it as a tie breaker if I’m deciding between a few players.