There is a lot of news out there these days regarding tariffs. I mean, it’s mid-March and we should be saturating ourselves with Spring Training news, right? Unfortunately, that’s not the world we live in right now, so we need to make the best of it. So, let’s set the record straight…What exactly is a tariff?
A tariff is defined as a tax imposed by a country on goods and services imported from another country. They are designed to make imported goods more expensive than domestically produced goods, potentially encouraging consumers to buy local products and protecting domestic industries from foreign competition. Now, I’m not going to juggle the current political hot potato regarding tariffs, I’m just setting the stage for this week’s fantasy baseball article.
I hear you wondering now, “How on earth are tariffs relevant to fantasy baseball?” Well, that’s a good question and in the hands of a lesser fantasy analyst, it might be an impossible comparison to make. Lucky for you though, I’m here to answer that perplexing question. Just give me a second to finish showering accolades on myself!
Ok, I’m back…
As we all know, we’re right in the heart of draft season. Whether you’re playing in high-stakes industry leagues or your competitive home league, the draft is the most anticipated event of the fantasy season. All the work you’ve done to get here, from player analysis to evaluating draft strategies, culminates on draft day. What a glorious time for the fantasy baseball enthusiast.
The reality is drafts rarely win you a title on their own. You still must manage your team appropriately to get to the Championship game in September. Don’t forget the golden rule though: while you can’t WIN your league on draft day, you certainly can LOSE your league, and the quickest way to do that is by investing your draft capital in the wrong places.
“Uh oh, TLB is starting to use monetary terms to discuss fantasy baseball drafts.”
BINGO!
Yes, we should think of fantasy drafts like purchasing goods and services. In the fantasy baseball world, we use our draft funds (everything from dollars in auction drafts to draft position in snake drafts) to “purchase” the services of those players in the hopes of building a winning roster.
“Ok, that kinda makes sense, but where do tariffs come in?”
Yet another good question.
In the “real” world, tariffs are applied to foreign goods. In the “fantasy” world though, we’re not talking about putting a tariff on players like Shohei Ohtani or Jose Ramirez because they hail from other countries. No, what I’m talking about is a draft tariff, one in which we are paying a higher draft cost (i.e., draft tax) by following ADP.
Now, you may recall just a short week ago, I penned an article, Points Leagues – Don’t Do This! In that piece, I made a case to not follow a platform’s ADP when drafting in Points leagues. Hopefully, I made a compelling argument! Today, I’m going to build on that and demonstrate in “tariff” terms some of the players we’re currently paying a higher tax on by following ADP.
To illustrate, I’ll use RazzSlam as the model – including both the RazzSlam scoring format and the NFBC ADP data over the past two weeks. From those datapoints, I will compare the ranks of the players based on their projected scoring and the ADP rankings.
From this analysis, we can identify players who we are paying tariffs on at their ADP. Some of the names may surprise you.
Let’s get started.
First, here is the RazzSlam scoring as a reminder:
Using Razzball/Streamer projections for hitters and pitchers, a score is calculated based on their projected full-season stats. For those unfamiliar with the NFBC site, they provide ADP data based on their formats. You can use their broad ADP or narrow your selection to certain formats and date ranges, etc. For my analysis, I’m looking at ADP over the past two weeks, which includes RazzSlam.
Don’t get me wrong, despite my continued bashing of ADP, it does have a place in our game and is a useful tool if used properly. Unfortunately, so many of us default to it and that’s when it becomes taxing (see what I did there?).
Now that we have the ground rules established, let’s begin.
50%+ Tariffs
I’ll rip the band aid off and start off at the high end. Right now, we’re paying the highest tariffs on pitchers in Points leagues, both starters and closers. Here’s a sample:
If you read either of my previous articles, Points Leagues – It’s All About The Strategy, Baby! or Points Leagues – Don’t Do This!, I made a case for not selecting pitchers early in drafts. In the latter piece, I included the first nine rounds of my RazzSlam draft where I selected only one pitcher – in the 9th round! This is the reason why. In that scoring format in particular, the tax we pay on pitchers following ADP is driven by the need to fill pitching categories in Roto drafts. Note that may not be the case with all ADP lists, but it’s certainly something you need to understand and adjust for, if necessary.
These high tariffs are not just limited to pitchers, catchers too are expensive these days. Here is a table listing a few of those:
Of course, the primary reason for this is most NFBC leagues feature a two-catcher format. That alone drives the price up for catchers in those drafts. So, if you are in a one-catcher league, be especially wary of following ADP. That might sound like common sense advice but I’m here to tell you it still happens. As an example, William Contreras was drafted in the early 3rd round in one of my one-catcher leagues just the other day. I love the guy but that’s WAY TOO EARLY to be drafting catchers in that format.
In this tariff bracket, pitchers and catchers make up the bulk of the names. There are a few position players, along with a few notable pitchers that I didn’t list above, that we are paying the highest taxes on:
The reasons we see these names in the high tariff list varies widely. For instance:
- Paul Skenes is a consensus top one or two fantasy pitcher this season but the projections feel the Pirates will go a little easy on him (160-165 innings) and therefore his fantasy scoring numbers are a bit lower.
- When healthy, Spencer Strider is obviously a top starting pitcher. Will he be fully healthy when he returns to the mound in late April? Odds are “NO” but that isn’t stopping optimistic drafters to buy what they feel is a discount.
- Gunnar Henderson’s scoring projections were clearly revised after he suffered the intercostal injury and thus his Opening Day status became in doubt. That didn’t stop some drafters from taking him mid-first round anyway (I am guilty of that myself).
As a final note here, I’m not here telling you to completely avoid these players in your drafts, even at/near their ADP. But it should be obvious that you don’t want to spend all your draft capital in this area as well. Look for values (more on that later).
25%+ Tariffs
Now to the lower tariff brackets. I’m sure by now you’re clearly seeing where I’m coming from with this analysis. So, moving forward, more names and less blabber from me. Deal?
There aren’t a lot of big names in this tariff bracket, but some stood out to me:
- With the injury to Jeff McNeil, Luisangel Acuna’s draft stock is obviously rising faster than his projections.
- Drafters are not generally paying up for last year’s hype surrounding Jackson Holliday. Dare I say a 200+ ADP might actually have some value?
- Hype is clearly in play with Jordan Lawlar too.
- Dylan Moore is not a sexy name in fantasy circles but when you factor in all his positional eligibility, we start paying the tax.
- Can you believe people are drafting Patrick Corbin? The 35-year-old remains a FA and conceivably may not pitch in the big leagues again but he’s being drafted – most likely in the 50 round Draft-and Hold type leagues. Nevertheless, he shows up in this analysis.
See, that’s how deep I dig into these numbers for all of you!
10%+ Tariffs
If you’re paying up for these guys, you aren’t breaking the bank:
Although not strictly values, compared to some of the names we saw above, you could craft a pretty good team from this list.
- Much like Spencer Strider, Shane McClanahan is one of the top arms in baseball when fully healthy. They’re also going about the same area in drafts. The difference? The prognosticators are a little sweeter on Shane this season.
- Jake Burger is an interesting case, buoyed by his move to Texas and multi-position eligibility. He won’t drain your bank account either.
- I honestly don’t understand why Mookie Betts is being drafted in the late 1st or early 2nd…especially in leagues where he has (or will soon have) 2B, SS and OF eligibility.
- Same goes for Juan Soto. Now that he has his own bank, fantasy drafters apparently don’t feel they need to break theirs to obtain him.
Investment Capital
So far, I’ve spent a lot of your draft capital. Now it’s time to get some of it back. I’ll call this group “investment capital” because in theory, these players should be putting money back in your wallets. Here are some value picks you may want to highlight:
Look at all those values:
- Luis Arraez may not hit many home runs or steal many bases, but he’s arguably the best pure hitter in the game today. Last I checked, the RazzSlam scoring rewards hits with 4 points each. Those add up…a fact lost on my Points league drafters apparently. Disregard the number, the fact that he’s at the top of the heap is what’s important to note. In my RazzSlam draft as an example, he was drafted at pick 91. That still calculates to a 128% value.
- I love Ezequiel Tovar this season. A 20:10 (HR:SB) season, with the upside of 25:15, is a reasonable expectation. He’s a value pick if you miss out on one of the SS that are going in the early rounds.
- Josh Lowe is another player I target everywhere. There is some risk as he’s surpassed 110 games only once, but he has the upside of 25:25 if he stays healthy. The Rays are also playing half their games at George Steinbrenner Field, so there’s that!
- Speaking of playing at AAA stadiums, Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler are primed to have huge years. Grab as many shares as you can.
“Grab as many shares as you can” refers to most of the names in this list. Time is running out.
Before I put a bow on this one, I want to take a minute to address some feedback I’ve received recently. Some readers ask for my projections or scoring lists that I use to craft these masterpieces of fantasy lore. While I appreciate the interest, I hesitate to do so because Points leagues tend to be SO DIFFERENT. For instance, I play in a number of Points leagues and almost all of them offer slightly (or not so slightly) different scoring formats. Because of this, I run the numbers and determine what I feel is an optimal draft strategy EVERY TIME.
My goal is to help you win. PERIOD! The best way to do that in draft season is to discuss strategy and provide tools that I’ve found to be successful. I’m happy to answer any questions and even help with the math. Just drop your questions in the comments below and we’ll work through it together.
Plus, if Grey starts seeing my comment numbers go way up, maybe I’ll get a bonus. BOOM!
Good luck with the rest of your drafts. By the time you see me next, we’ll already have a pair of regular-season games in the books. We’ll also be in the final countdown to Opening Day. I can’t wait!
In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter/X (@Derek_Favret) and on BlueSky (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends.
